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Thread: Exit Strategy

  1. #1
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    Default Exit Strategy

    We know prices are high. We also know what goes up must come down. So what is your exit strategy?

    The source of this run without doubt is ample global liquildity, cheap money. This trend will eventually reverse. When it does, will you get out in time or get suck in?

    I see below as indicator to get ready to exit your investments. And these signs will come in sequence. Although this may happen some years later.

    Look to the west, US.

    Phase 1. Significant drop in US employment.
    Phase 2. QE3 ceased.
    Phase 3. US GDP become strong (prepare to exit)
    Phase 4. Inflation rise (must exit)
    Phase 5. Interest rate rise (too late)

    What's your opinion?

  2. #2
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    Hold forever.

  3. #3
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    Hold first...and wait for economy to recover... If economy downturn persist and property is down for long period, which group of buyers will still buy?

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wolverine23
    Hold forever.
    Agree plan ur finances well and hold forever....if u got holding power and buy within ur means why worry just like share mkt...but of course as with shares make sure your
    Property is a gem....in good or bad times still got value and pays good dividends...rental

  5. #5
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    There isn't any exit strategy when you are getting one to live in.

    I am eyeing Mt Sinai for that very reason. I am fearless.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by AK47
    We know prices are high. We also know what goes up must come down. So what is your exit strategy?

    The source of this run without doubt is ample global liquildity, cheap money. This trend will eventually reverse. When it does, will you get out in time or get suck in?

    I see below as indicator to get ready to exit your investments. And these signs will come in sequence. Although this may happen some years later.

    Look to the west, US.

    Phase 1. Significant drop in US employment.
    Phase 2. QE3 ceased.
    Phase 3. US GDP become strong (prepare to exit)
    Phase 4. Inflation rise (must exit)
    Phase 5. Interest rate rise (too late)

    What's your opinion?
    Watch how the US bonds trade...

    Any buyers post-CM4 are effectively trapped, there is no exit strategy until the SSD encumberance is removed.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat
    Watch how the US bonds trade...

    Any buyers post-CM4 are effectively trapped, there is no exit strategy until the SSD encumberance is removed.
    Bro, there is an exit. Just need to think of a plan before it happens. So in the event it happens, u can execute.

  8. #8
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    How to hold if your rental yield is 3% and your interest is 4.5%? Price has to correct alot for yield to rise over 4.5%, to be sustainable long term.

    You may end up "paying" your tenant to stay at your house like the years after 1997 crisis.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by AK47
    How to hold if your rental yield is 3% and your interest is 4.5%? Price has to correct alot for yield to rise over 4.5%, to be sustainable long term.

    You may end up "paying" your tenant to stay at your house like the years after 1997 crisis.
    Just need to clear the loan before the crisis and you are safe.. !

    What you rent out is what you get back no need to worry interest rate la..
    "Anyone who has not made a mistake has never tried anything new"

  10. #10
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    There is always an exit route but at what losses if one has no holding power.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by yowetan
    There isn't any exit strategy when you are getting one to live in.

    I am eyeing Mt Sinai for that very reason. I am fearless.
    simple reason, u hv nothing to lose, as u just go bankrupt.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    There is always an exit route but at what losses if one has no holding power.
    Bro, SSD 16% onwards right. If we talking about investment property(2nd or above). Just shift to the other unit and sell unit not under SSD. If all under SSD(unit staying in and investment). Bo Pian Loh, the person ask for it for not planning well. What to do. He took high risk, so high gain or high loss.

    That's why must plan exit route for all investment to minimize risk. Especially > 40 yr old. Hahaha

  13. #13
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    Bad times are the test of head size and hat size. Too bad if hat size is larger than head size as the head has downside and cannot see where one is going.
    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Bro, SSD 16% onwards right. If we talking about investment property(2nd or above). Just shift to the other unit and sell unit not under SSD. If all under SSD(unit staying in and investment). Bo Pian Loh, the person ask for it for not planning well. What to do. He took high risk, so high gain or high loss.

    That's why must plan exit route for all investment to minimize risk. Especially > 40 yr old. Hahaha

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    Bad times are the test of head size and hat size. Too bad if hat size is larger than head size as the head has downside and cannot see where one is going.
    Hahaha, I guess I am very conservative. I also believe you need to do preparations for the worst case. Why? I got caught in 97 but it made me stronger. Those who got caught either came out weaker or stronger.

  15. #15
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    I have gone through 97 but just held on and shot up now. Just be prepared. No problem with all FH except one is 99LH property and free from SSD. Just wait and hold, otherwise pass it on.
    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Hahaha, I guess I am very conservative. I also believe you need to do preparations for the worst case. Why? I got caught in 97 but it made me stronger. Those who got caught either came out weaker or stronger.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    I have gone through 97 but just held on and shot up now. Just be prepared. No problem with all FH except one is 99LH property and free from SSD. Just wait and hold, otherwise pass it on.
    I held on during 97, but the feeling of seeing 1 of my property drop from 1.4 mil to 800k was so painful. And the bank did not ask for top up. I don't understand why people keep bringing up about top ups when it did not happen.

    Losing means lost opportunity. That was what I learnt. With 1.4 mil, I could have gotten about 2 in 1998.

  17. #17
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    I kept it as rental was $3500/mth for my 2 bedder which I have bought for at $550k.
    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    I held on during 97, but the feeling of seeing 1 of my property drop from 1.4 mil to 800k was so painful. And the bank did not ask for top up. I don't understand why people keep bringing up about top ups when it did not happen.

    Losing means lost opportunity. That was what I learnt. With 1.4 mil, I could have gotten about 2 in 1998.

  18. #18
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    I experienced PanE, Clob, Lucky, managed to run just in time.

    1997 : clean.
    Lehman crisis : badly caught.

    So now, very scare to be caught

  19. #19
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    Fortunately, my PB did not offer such lemon products to me.
    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    I experienced PanE, Clob, Lucky, managed to run just in time.

    1997 : clean.
    Lehman crisis : badly caught.

    So now, very scare to be caught

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    Fortunately, my PB did not offer such lemon products to me.
    no lah! I am smart enough not caught in lemon but caught in property.

  21. #21
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    i think MAS will eventually have to change our peg with US short term rate

    but they dun have the guts right now

    there is talk of iBond .. would PAP give us angpao?
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    no lah! I am smart enough not caught in lemon but caught in property.
    So u got caught in property during leman crisis? But no prob right?

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    So u got caught in property during leman crisis? But no prob right?
    I sold one at its worst price! I went in naked for this one.
    But shortly after that, I bot another one...

    I could not recall how much was the total commitment at that time, just did not talk about it at home lor!

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    I sold one at its worst price! I went in naked for this one.
    But shortly after that, I bot another one...

    I could not recall how much was the total commitment at that time, just did not talk about it at home lor!
    Oh. But what I discovered was crisis either make someone weaker or stronger. Well, u came out stronger.

  25. #25
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    To answer the thread starter

    "I say, basically, 'hold.' The idea that the European news or slowdown in this or that or anything like that, that would not cause you to, if you owned a good farm and had it run by a good tenant, you wouldn't sell it because somebody says, 'Here's a news item,' you know, 'This is happening in Greece' or something of the sort.
    "If you owned an apartment house and you got to raise the rents a little and it was well located and you had a good manager, you wouldn't dream of selling it.

    => guess who said this
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Oh. But what I discovered was crisis either make someone weaker or stronger. Well, u came out stronger.
    very true, crisis is a good chance to test your mettle.

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    To answer the thread starter

    "I say, basically, 'hold.' The idea that the European news or slowdown in this or that or anything like that, that would not cause you to, if you owned a good farm and had it run by a good tenant, you wouldn't sell it because somebody says, 'Here's a news item,' you know, 'This is happening in Greece' or something of the sort.
    "If you owned an apartment house and you got to raise the rents a little and it was well located and you had a good manager, you wouldn't dream of selling it.

    => guess who said this
    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000124734

    http://bit.ly/TA2BQz

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/49533493

  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Bro, there is an exit. Just need to think of a plan before it happens. So in the event it happens, u can execute.
    Oh, your case different la bro. I can remember.

    You have already thought of the exit before entry.

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat
    Oh, your case different la bro. I can remember.

    You have already thought of the exit before entry.
    Bro, I tell u honestly. I am very deep. My job requires me to think like crazy and map all kinds of scenarios and strategies. So I am just applying my daily job to investment.

    Check this out. It will help u in your stats.
    http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=15398

    I got a strange feeling u in the legal circuit.

  30. #30
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    Default Hold forever

    Dangerous to exit property and hold cash. What if there is hyper inflation!!!??

    Warren Buffet said inflation is like falling off a 50 storey building, the first 49 floors is pretty calm.......

    Do you really think it's safe to sell all your assets and hold cash? I don't think so.

    Tody's ppty mkt is based on genuine demand so the prices will sustain.

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