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Thread: I got a bad feeling

  1. #1
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    Default I got a bad feeling

    that the property market is en route for some price correction in Q1 2013. I am not saying this because I have missed the boat, but rather after observing the economic fundamental as well as the lack of exciting news to entice investors to jump in

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    that the property market is en route for some price correction in Q1 2013. I am not saying this because I have missed the boat, but rather after observing the economic fundamental as well as the lack of exciting news to entice investors to jump in
    Just curious.... if you have MTB, then it should not be a bad feeling.......

  3. #3
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    Don't be silly. Year end is typically a lull period. Festivities plus school holidays.

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    Quote Originally Posted by buttercarp
    Just curious.... if you have MTB, then it should not be a bad feeling.......
    dont get me wrong, I am not trying to pour cold water or anything. in fact, I am very invested in properties and at the same time, I am pretty set with my rental returns for the next 2 to 3 years with decent yield. but I cant help but having this feeling that with the recent CMs coupled with all the slowing down in economy, property market will got through some correction in the coming quarter. (I am not saying it will crash like 20% or more but correction is around the corner for big quantum property)

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    I can't wait for end of Dec to come...... Bro chestnut and uncle carb going to reveal something.... xmas coming (going to Chezcake Bistro in Joo Chiat to get my turkey and roast beef)..... lots of interesting things!

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    I also see very limited upside if you buy now. At most only slow price increase as any big jump or high sales volume will meet with more CM.

    2016 is the govt's target to have a lot of housing surplus. Good for their votes.

    It will be a time when many developments will have unsold units and when the developer's 2 year timeline is up, they will have to lelong big time in order not to pay the fine.

  7. #7
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    My bad feeling is there are more CMs to come.

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    there's still the US presidential elections to look forward to 6 Nov

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    QE 4 coming. Existing $40billion per month increase to $80billion per month.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    My bad feeling is there are more CMs to come.
    I am actually not worried about CM because CM always come when they are excessive heat in the property market.

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    A good thing about this long recovery is interest rate will be low for a very long time. Inflation will still be high.
    I can see china shares index has hit bottom and i feel that we are now at 2003. Recovering stage.

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    I think govt increasing surplus supply in 2016 is just shooting themselves in the foot. Hundreds of thousands of people bought in the last 2 years and plus those buying in 2013 and going forward. Many young newly wed first property and needing them to have babies.. why kill them with oversupply and price decline?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    dont get me wrong, I am not trying to pour cold water or anything. in fact, I am very invested in properties and at the same time, I am pretty set with my rental returns for the next 2 to 3 years with decent yield. but I cant help but having this feeling that with the recent CMs coupled with all the slowing down in economy, property market will got through some correction in the coming quarter. (I am not saying it will crash like 20% or more but correction is around the corner for big quantum property)
    Plane loads of foreign workers still coming in this year despite the slow growth in GDP. Plus the U.S's QE to infinity, China, Eurozone stimulus will provide liquidity til at least 2014. Correction in property prices may not come soon. Two cents worth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hovivi
    I think govt increasing surplus supply in 2016 is just shooting themselves in the foot. Hundreds of thousands of people bought in the last 2 years and plus those buying in 2013 and going forward. Many young newly wed first property and needing them to have babies.. why kill them with oversupply and price decline?
    Coz got many who miss tge boar chanting for crash!

  15. #15
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    ....or super ringo tanker trying to clean up the small sampans.

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    李嘉诚欲巨资竞购英国第四大机场

    Fiat money is now past tense
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33
    that the property market is en route for some price correction in Q1 2013. I am not saying this because I have missed the boat, but rather after observing the economic fundamental as well as the lack of exciting news to entice investors to jump in
    If you think correction will be limited, similar to upside potential, your feeling is actually not that "bad". Despite what some have been saying since 2010, that prices will correct, so many people are still buying and rushing to buy like no tomorrow, the general feelng for most must be good.

    No exciting news may actually be the best news.

  18. #18
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    Hi.. If there is indeed a correction, I am always ready to pound onto Mt Sinai.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ekl2ekl2
    If you think correction will be limited, similar to upside potential, your feeling is actually not that "bad". Despite what some have been saying since 2010, that prices will correct, so many people are still buying and rushing to buy like no tomorrow, the general feelng for most must be good.

    No exciting news may actually be the best news.
    What to do if you have money?
    If put in bank, is a sure kill..unlimited qe, high inflation..in 5 years your money is worth half.
    If property even if no super rise still should be able to match inflation in 5 years time.
    No one is looking for gain. People just hoping to protect their money.

  20. #20
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    I think there is some contradiction in your statement to the point you are trying to make.

    Quote Originally Posted by hovivi
    I think govt increasing surplus supply in 2016 is just shooting themselves in the foot. Hundreds of thousands of people bought in the last 2 years and plus those buying in 2013 and going forward. Many young newly wed first property and needing them to have babies.. why kill them with oversupply and price decline?

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    Quote Originally Posted by howgozit
    I think there is some contradiction in your statement to the point you are trying to make.
    What I'm saying is govt won't crash the market through oversupply because they risk harming those those bought recently. Most whom bought recently are newly wed 1st timer and we need them to be not having finanicial despair to make babies.

  22. #22
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    It's just sluggish growth until US Presidential elections are over and the market goes cheering for Xmas......

    Next year? Sluggish growth coz of all the hot money......

    Correction? Tough. Why? Becoz hot money is in Asia, and in particular SG.

    Why persists in SG? becoz EURO debt supposedly resolved at the moment but take few years to sort out......

    Just my humble opinion....

    These few years is for OCR to close in gap with RCR, CCR. (meaning if drop is RCR, CCR drop coz OCR is supported by EC prices.)

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by rockinsg
    No one is looking for gain. People just hoping to protect their money.
    like that buy reits can or not?
    it seems that the yield of some reits are higher than rental yield now...

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by taggy
    like that buy reits can or not?
    it seems that the yield of some reits are higher than rental yield now...
    REITs have outperformed STI significantly this year and there is no meaningful pull back this year.

    Make your own decision, to buy or not.

  25. #25
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    huh? clim1688 is hovivi??!?

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by carbuncle
    huh? clim1688 is hovivi??!?
    My girl lah.. Could have used her phone .

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by yowetan
    Hi.. If there is indeed a correction, I am always ready to pound onto Mt Sinai.


  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by minority
    If you know that there are at least 200,000 yowetan in this country, you will know that there is no downside.

    Just my office alone, there are at least 50% of the workers are waiting to do the Gangnum Style Property Pounce! We just need price to correct 7-8%, ALL HELL's Gate will open with an army of Property Hungry Ghost to put 7th Month to shame.

    Trust me, my office is a typical office with a typical Office Boy like me.

    DKSG

  29. #29
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    CCR has already corrected 10% from 2011 level.

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by DKSG
    If you know that there are at least 200,000 yowetan in this country, you will know that there is no downside.

    Just my office alone, there are at least 50% of the workers are waiting to do the Gangnum Style Property Pounce! We just need price to correct 7-8%, ALL HELL's Gate will open with an army of Property Hungry Ghost to put 7th Month to shame.

    Trust me, my office is a typical office with a typical Office Boy like me.

    DKSG
    those ready to pounce may fear of losing their job or even worry that the price would drop further and the cycle continues.

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