Just got told about this one too.. 4.75% not great for 10 years. Their IBC business is doing ok though.
Originally Posted by cbsh38584
Newbie
Just got told about this one too.. 4.75% not great for 10 years. Their IBC business is doing ok though.
Newbie
Commentary on Swiber issuance
Newbie
Indonesian govt bond launched today:
Issuer:
Republic of Indonesia
Issuer Ratings:
Baa3 stable (Moody’s)/BB+ positive (S&P)/BBB- stable (Fitch)
Expected Issue Ratings:
Senior Unsecured Bonds
Documentation:
Rule 144A / Regulation S
Status:
10yr Fixed | 30yr Fixed
Format:
US$ Benchmark | US$ Benchmark
Size:
3.625% area | 4.95% area
Final Guidance:
Deutsche Bank (B&D) / J.P. Morgan / Standard Chartered Bank
Details:
Mandiri / Danareksa
Joint Bookrunners:
$200,000 x $1,000
Listing:
Singapore Exchange (SGX)
Risk Rating:
P4 (P1 to P5, P5 being the highest)
Newbie
Yet another one launched today:
Issuer:
Bank of Ceylon
Issuer Ratings:
BB-/stable (Fitch); B1/stable (Moody's)
Expected Issue Ratings:
BB- (Fitch)
Format:
Reg S only, Registered
Maturity:
5-year Bullet
Type:
Fixed rate senior unsecured notes
Size:
US$ Benchmark Size
Initial Price Guidance:
5.50% area
Use of Proceeds:
General corporate purposes
Key Covenants:
* Change of Control: Put at 101% if the Govt of Sri Lanka ceases to own at least 51% of the Issuer
* Negative Pledge
Details:
US$200K/1K, English Law, SGX
Timing:
As early as today’s business
Sole Bookrunner:
UBS
Risk Rating:
P5 (P1 to P5, P5 being the highest)
Newbie
Below comments from 1 of my 3 Bankers. This banker's knowledge on bond is solid, I mean good enough for me. Honestly, I am quite prepare to take the risk after seeing the comments since this compnay is profitable, a local company but -ve point is over leverage. However, another banker "shot" down my greed and advice me to reconsider.
So ok lah, better dont touch and leave it alone, unless it starts to trade below par.
"Umm Swiber is not a recommended bond and the drawback is that there is no lending value on the bond.
However, these may be positives:
Swiber achieved record-high revenue of US$952.2M and net profit US$62.2M for FY2012, the highest since its listing in 20
Swiber continues to secure sizable contracts with orderbook of approximately US$1.35bn as of Feb 2013
The swiber 6.25% due 2015 trades around 6.08% YTM. Generally, Swiber issues at high 5% to 6plus % area."
BTW, does anyone know if we can buy some pricing tool like Murex. Can we buy Murex module?
Newbie
I dunno. I'm also quite keen to be able to subscribe to some platform cheaply to know the real-time price as well as buy / sell / traded volumes.
Junior
We (include me) are really too complacent thinking that the big crisis is still a few years away. All this junk bonds should not even be sold in the mkt. A sudden sell off in the bond mkt will eat out all your profit earn from bond coupon in one year + more paper losses.We need to be careful not to be too greedy on high yield. If we decide to go all out on junk bond high yield. We must be very alert & must be a exit plan.
I do not want the 2008/98 crsis happen to me again. 2006/2007 make a few hundred thousand. A 2008 crisis wipe out all my profit earn in 2006/2007 + hundred thousand paper loss within mths. We must be exit far ahead b4 the crsis will come. It may not come. But it is good to be extra careful. The next crisis maybe bigger than 97/98. We just dont know when.
US Fed & China/European etc are hiding many things from us. Keep painting a good picture that everything is ok now. I rather in 2014/2015 earning 30k/40k from usual 200k/yr. Just be extremely cautious.
rdgs,
Vic
Junior
Murex base + one module will cost you 500k a year
just to price a ELN no need to buy a tool lah. Can google any "option price tool". and ELN is just a simple put. Any tool can compute the price given the strike/maturity/vol.
Junior
Std chartered has a bullish view on CNH (Offshore rmb). So they are recommending to client to borrow @ 1.3% USD $500k (min) & convert to Chinese yuan & put it into a Fixed D @2.3% for a year. Net yield is (2.3 - 1.3) 1%. CNH X-rate is around 6.20. Tgt is 6.15 within one year.
If it stay around 6.20. U will earn US$5k (1% of US$500k).
If it strengthen to 6.15.U will earn US$5k + FX X-change gain.
If it weaken to >6.262. U earn zero + FX some X-change loss.
==========================================
If U are a frequent to HK or China. U can open a RMB acct in China.
The FD rate is 3.2% to 3.3%. They also hv shorten "money mkt fund" ( 2mth to 6 mths) which can give 4.5% to 5% depend on the amt invested. The risk level is low 1. RMB is one of the so call safe heaven currency to hv.
One disadvantage is that U can only TT back to S'pore US$50k/year. Or wait for China to open the financial sector freely to be able to TT back without restricition. It may be >5 yrs down the road.
SGD to RMB X-change rate is S$1=RMB$5. Before 2006 I think it is around 4.60 to 4.80.
rdgs,
Vic
Junior
The world is still finding a new equilibrium. In the short run just stick to the big players (USA). US has too much too lose, so she will gives everything she got to keep the status quo. The challengers now are not ready yet. US will fall apart not because of outside attack. She will fall because of internal dispute. So watch out for US domestic event. If they still stick together, long USD. If u begin to see the crack in US politic, short with all u can.
Junior
許冠傑 - 浪子心聲From the Heart of a Loafer -Sam hui - English translation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkoBCtMLn0A
===========================================
It is not easy to distinguish between truth & falsehood
Many human are deceitful at heart
How many of them would share prosperity with you ?
To equally share even the water drops from the rim of a roof ?
I was an ignorant frog inside the well
Looking in vain for prestige & fame
Self conceited & short sighted
I would never expected my elegant house would one day become a dilapidated wreck
We will eventually gain whatever as fate would have it
We better not to strive too hard for something not destined for us
We will meet thunders & storms
But we don’t have to be scared
Happiest are those who have a fair mind and a clear conscience
And perform good deeds whenever possible
We will eventually gain whatever as fate would have it
We better not to strive too hard for something not destined for us
Human beings are just like the sand in the sea
But we don’t have to be scared
You can see the evening glow all over the sky
It will soon disappear like a mist : So do fame & fortune
=========================================
His songs is full of meaning and life. His lyrics is absolutely correct on our life path. We have to be contended with what we have.
dont crave what we dont have... and dont despair over what we dont have.. Be humble and contend.. Everyone of us seems tocontrol by our own greed. Never look at what we do not have, but look at what we have now....Too much choices will make oneself losses its sense...
rdgs,
Vic
Junior
US, Japan Now Global Allies in Money Printing
CNBC.com**04/08/13 2:45 PM ET
By: Jeff Cox
*** * *
Tomohiro Ohsumi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
U.S. markets, particularly the riskiest areas of investment, are likely to benefit at least near term from the latest entrant to the central bank money-printing arena.
Following the lead of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan last week announced an even more ambitious project to use created funds to buy assets in the hopes of boosting investment and inflation.
Considering the U.S. central bank already has pushed its balance sheet past $3 trillion, that's saying something.
Not to fear, though, that Japanese markets may begin to compete with the U.S. for investment money: Many experts figure that the BoJ's efforts will only complement, rather than divert from, the American central bank stimulus regime.
(Read More: Pimco's Bill Gross: Beware of 'Monetary Red Bull')
"Money will go to where it's best treated," said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist for Prudential Annuities. "We're on a scavenger hunt for yield, we're on a scavenger hunt for return. Right now, it's the U.S. market and the Japanese market."
The areas most likely to benefit from the BofJ announcement are Japanese equities, which have been on a parabolic rise since the market started anticipating central bank stimulus, as well as U.S. stocks and Treasurys and some global markets that maybe have underperformed but are ready to rebound.
"Ultimately, the BoJ intends to over-crowd the domestic market with their asset purchases," Priya Misra, rates strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a note to clients. "This would effectively force spillover demand to equity, overseas and other risk assets. US Treasurys should also benefit near term due to some crossover buying."
(Read More: Andrew Busch: I Have a Yen for a Mea Culpa)
With many investors anticipating a U.S. market pullback after its strong first-quarter rally, the BoJ announcement comes at an opportune time.
PLAY VIDEO Debating a bull and bear case for Best Buy, with the FMHR traders. And, Gemma Godfrey has the play on big moves for the yen and Japanese stocks.
Earnings season, with its expectations of little corporate profit growth, is setting up as an ideal pause point for the market. A weak nonfarm payrolls report Friday has led to consecutive weak sessions, and the market has been on a two-week string of alternating positive and negative trading days.
(Read More: Forever Fed: Jobs Blues Sets Up Eternal Easing)
Indeed, the BoJ announcement has introduced an interesting dynamic to the markets across the board.
While U.S. stock market strength has hinged on a weak dollar, the greenback is hovering around a four-year high against the yen. Yet the U.S. markets have held in, despite a weakening economy.
Some strategists are beginning to talk about taking some money off the table and putting it in global markets until the U.S. market dips and creates a better entry point.
"In the end, none of this is based on fundamentals," said Michael Yoshikami, CEO at Destination Wealth Management. "It's all based on currency so it's going to have to end at some point. But at least for the short term I see it as a net positive for everyone."
From a strategy standpoint, Yoshikami said DWM has taken some profits and is investing in dividend stocks such as Johnson and Johnson, as well as developing markets like the Phillipines and Singapore while lightening up in China and Brazil.
(Read More: Looking for a Pullback Play? Try Going Global)
But he sees a rally ahead for the U.S. after a pullback.
"'Don't fight the Fed' and 'don't fight the central banks' are sayings for a reason," Yoshikami said. "The money we're spending right now for central banks is going to come out of the economy five and 10 years from now. It might be a sobering result that we get less growth then because we're spending it today."
There are additional risks, the most glaring being that a big round of quantitative easing in Japan may be no better at stoking growth and the good kind of inflation there than it has been in the U.S. Despite the Fed's all-out efforts, unemployment remains elevated and inflation subdued, though stocks have soared.
Investors, however, have shown little interest lately in pondering long-term ramifications when there's money to be made today.
"Monetary policy is being used as the policy tool to create demand. The question is, is this going to end in tears?" Prudential's Krosby said. "Is this going to end in worse calamity for the markets than what we had in 2008 and 2009? No one knows. But the point is, the market's enjoying it now."
-By CNBC.com's Senior Writer Jeff Cox. Follow him on Twitter @JeffCoxCNBCcom.
Junior
In the end all of these money printing will fail to revive all of their economies. Sg will get what she wishes, which is a global financial center, because of sg transparency and rules of law.
In the end sg properties will shoot up even more.
Junior
Bro Indomie, now outside Jakarta booming leh... I very in touch w indo hor.
Bro Vic, balance of life is important. People earning 4k also happy. U should be happy and smell the roses.
Junior
Especially serpong, the price is insane. Even apartments outside jakarta is booming. Indonesia is in the process of ending multi generations living in one roof. As long the economy keeps growing, housing need will be a priority for many people. Mind u, if u want to invest go for smaller landed houses, rather than a big one. The MM philosophy works here too.
Junior
Brudder, to invest in Indo, you better have a damn bloody good friend in Indonesia.... At least for me
My friend buying up land to build shophouses.... Hahahahahaha Last 3-4 years was boom town charlie for him....
Junior
given that SGD is rising, is it good time to buy OZ ?
Junior
At 0.77 AUD to a SGD, is not high enough. I bought 0.79 at the beginning of the year. I am waiting until it hit 0.8 AUD
Junior
Brudder, if you take OZ loan, it will be at point of disbursement (converstion)... So if TOP 3 years, time, it will be the exchange rate then... Unless, you pay full, then you need to time the buying of OZ dollar....
Downpayment is 10% and units can only be bot off-plan.
Hope it helps...
Junior
You are right on, I am now looking at good rate for conversion. But oz developers are not bound by TOP date. So find a reputable one.Brudder, if you take OZ loan, it will be at point of disbursement (converstion)... So if TOP 3 years, time, it will be the exchange rate then... Unless, you pay full, then you need to time the buying of OZ dollar....
Downpayment is 10% and units can only be bot off-plan.
Hope it helps...
Newbie
I have been thinking on this post over the weekend "This is one of the way to reduce your short term mortagage payment burden.
".
Even the YTM is low, it might be a good strategy to time the market especially for my case, I cannot let the morgage cash idle around.
I got a long way to learn, brother. Next time we got chance, we go karaok and drink. I sing Anak + 浪子心聲, but I prefer the Emil Chau version ok. So long nvr been to karaok liao.
Junior
Brudder, if you take OZ loan, it will be at point of disbursement (converstion)... So if TOP 3 years, time, it will be the exchange rate then... Unless, you pay full, then you need to time the buying of OZ dollar....
Downpayment is 10% and units can only be bot off-plan.
Hope it helps...
ok, also cannot sell to anyone, only OZ.
Newbie
Commentary:
New Issue Review : CWT 6Y SGD 4.1%
by tradehaven - CWT announced a new 6yrs issue after strong IOIs after SG roadshow
- Deal terms: 6yrs at initial price guidance of 4.1% area
- CWT Limited is a leading solution provider of integrated logistics and supply
chain management. CWT has a strong brand name and long standing relationship
with customers with over 40years of proven track record
- Comps:
AAREIT 4.9 2016- 105.00, 3.30%
GPACK 4.5 2019- 103.50, 3.88%
Not an expert on logistics companies that were once upon a long time ago, owned by PSA.
The bond issue should make sense for them from the financial planning and prudency point of view. Their short term liabilities have exploded and account receivables growing at an alarming rate, well above revenue growth.
Their MTN programme is for SGD 500 mio worth of notes. Market capitalisation is SGD 927.5 mio only because their stock price is up 26% this year which does not make borrowing another 500 million on top of their SGD 1.6 bio borrowings vs assets of SGD 2.2 bio of which 917 mio is in accounts receivables. They have very little fixed assets in their books and their worth is only measured in the government contracts and leases under their belts.
Unlike Nam Cheong, they have chosen not to pay up for their virgin issue because I think 4.1% is sliced a little too thin to impress and win the hearts of fans.
For all my rants about NOL in the past, if people are willing to buy at such spreads, then why not give NOL (and Temasek) a chance ? It is a recognised name with a benchmark issue size and a major subsidiary of Temasek.
NOL 4.4% 11/2019 is trading at 4.13/4.02 % (101.50/102.00). It is callable in 11/2017 at 102.20.
Yesterday's Swiber 4Y milked SGD 160 mio at 7.125%. Price today at 100.375/100.625.
Note : Not every single bank can buy this bond.
Junior
When U use equity loan to buy STRAIGHT bond. I am believe U know what are thing bond to buy.I have been thinking on this post over the weekend "This is one of the way to reduce your short term mortagage payment burden.
".
Even the YTM is low, it might be a good strategy to time the market especially for my case, I cannot let the morgage cash idle around.
I got a long way to learn, brother. Next time we got chance, we go karaok and drink. I sing Anak + 浪子心聲, but I prefer the Emil Chau version ok
1. straight quality bond only.
2. Short dated bond.
3. Bond issue size too small is not advisable. Sometime no buyer/seller.
At least >US$300m to be safe. US$500m will be better.
4. If u want to be extra safe , buy only senior secured bond but yield will be low.
5. Your equity loan if possible fixed it two or three years. if Floating rate, U need to know the sudden increase in rate.
6. If must know the margin call trigger level if an unexpected event happen. Like a bomb explosion at SMRT by terriorist. U must be mentally prepared for this.
Your banker should be able to advise U more. Start small 1st if U are not sure. U need to pay school fee to learn. Dont pay VERY BIG FEE.
I married late & hv 2 young children. Very stressful helping to take care. less time to go out with my friends again. If I am single, I will be very aggressive in doing ACCUMULATOR product myself again. Now cannot. Got to think of my family. This is one of the reason why I go for bond in 2010/2012 by leveraging. It is much less risky than ACCUMULATORs.So far my profit from bond is >S$100k as from Apr.But will slowly reduce my bond holding by 2013 as 2014/2015 is quite risky for bond.
rdgs,
Vic
Junior
When U use equity loan to buy STRAIGHT bond. I am believe U know what are the bond to buy.I have been thinking on this post over the weekend "This is one of the way to reduce your short term mortagage payment burden.
".
Even the YTM is low, it might be a good strategy to time the market especially for my case, I cannot let the morgage cash idle around.
I got a long way to learn, brother. Next time we got chance, we go karaok and drink. I sing Anak + 浪子心聲, but I prefer the Emil Chau version ok
1. straight quality bond only.
2. Short dated bond.
3. Bond issue size too small is not advisable. Sometime no buyer/seller.
At least >US$300m to be safe. US$500m will be better.
4. If u want to be extra safe , buy only senior secured bond but yield will be low.
5. Your equity loan if possible fixed it two or three years. if Floating rate, U need to know the sudden increase in rate.
6. If must know the margin call trigger level if an unexpected event happen. Like a bomb explosion at SMRT by terriorist. U must be mentally prepared for this.
Your banker should be able to advise U more. Start small 1st if U are not sure. U need to pay school fee to learn. Dont pay VERY BIG FEE.
I married late & hv 2 young children. Very stressful helping to take care. less time to go out with my friends again. If I am single, I will be very aggressive in doing ACCUMULATOR product myself again. Now cannot. Got to think of my family. This is one of the reason why I go for bond in 2010/2012 by leveraging. It is much less risky than ACCUMULATORs.So far my profit from bond is S$100k as from Apr.But will slowly reduce my bond holding by 2013 as 2014/2015 is quite risky for bond.
rdgs,
Vic
Junior
This was launched in early NOV 2012 from UBS.
ATTRACTIVE AUTOCALL COUPON + DEEP KNOCK IN + CONVERSION
ABX,Barrick Gold (Spot US$36)+ FCX,Freeport Mcmoran (US$39.5)
Tenure 1 year
Interest : 22% pa
Knock Out: 100% i.e ABX=US$36 FCX=US$39.5
Knock in level 62% i.e ABX = US$22.3 FCX = US$24.5
Strike level : 95% i.e ABX=US$34.2 or FCX=US$37.5
Looking at the FCN on ABX & FCX stock deep Knock- in level of 62% and a extremely attractive 22%pa (US$100k investment mean US$22k return per year).
U can observe that this two counter ABX+FCX will likely to drop in the next few mths or the commodities sector may not be doing well in the next few mths. U will likely to avoid commodities sector or take profit on it after UBS come out with this FCN on ABX+FCX on early Nov 2012. Today (5 mths later) , ABX is US$26.6 (25% drop). FCX is US$32.5 (18% drop). Still hv 7 mths to go. I think ABX will drop more since it is more into GOLD. Let see whether those investor will get their 22% (US$22k from US$100k investment) or the share at US$34.2 or US$37.5 (the worst performing stk).
I always want my banker to continue to let me know all FCN or ELN which they hv launched in the open mkt. Sometimes, the deep strike + extremely attractive return 22% from the FCN will enable U to know the stk or sector performance in the next few mths.
I save & record all the FCN + ELN from all my bankers send to me into my excel file to learn the dirty trick from the issuers.
rdgs,
Vic
Junior
I bought Chinese developer Kaise Group Junk bond 8.875% @ 101.8 three week ago. Now the price is 104 (mid price). Likely to sell by end 2013.
rdgs,
Vic
Newbie
Today's bond issuance:
Issuer:
Hotel Properties Limited
Status:
Senior, unsecured
Issue rating:
Unrated
Initial Guidance:
3.8% - 4.0%, semi-annual, ACT/365 (Fixed)
Tenor:
7 Year
Issue Size:
TBA
Issue Date:
23 April 2013
Maturity Date:
23 April 2020
Issue Price:
100%
Details:
SGD250K / Singapore Law / CDP
Listing:
None
Joint Bookrunner:
DBS
Timing:
As early as today's business
Risk Rating:
P4
Junior
ABX (Barrick Gold) dropped 6% to US$25.07 today. Tigger level is 62% of US$39.5 = US$22.3. if ABX will to close at US$22.3 below. The contract become live & client got the high risk that their US$100k capital will convert to share @ 95% of US$39.5 = US$37.52.
Need to wait for another 7 mths to know the conversion price. So there is a real risk if the FCN is long tenor + extremely attractive yield 22% + very deep knock in level 62%. Client is at lose end for this FCN conditions.
rdgs,
Vic
Newbie
More trouble it seems:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...nto-mover.html
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