BOND THREAD

[chestnut]

Alot of people invest with your eyes wide open. But their weakness in emotional trading behaviour failed them even thought they hv high IQ.


There is a financial article from std chart years ago. They hv done a survey against a Professional trader trading in/out against "Auntie" who buy big chip stock during the crisis & hold it. Ten years later, the return of the professional trader only manage to outperform against the "Auntie" by a few % only.

Almost all my friends who are done quite well in biz are not making money Genting share. Surpriselying a ignorant investor who is a clerk 1st time buying genting during the crisis make a few thousand. She reward herself by buying LV wallet (S$800) + a short holiday.

We need IQ & EQ to make money in stock. IQ is not enough to be successful in stock for long term investment. But I believe if a person who got high EQ, he/she got a higher chance to make money in longer term.


rdgs,
Vic

There are a few elements which I think are important
1. Ability to spot new stars or
2. contrarian

[toiletsiao]

There are a few elements which I think are important
1. Ability to spot new stars or
2. contrarian

3. Overcome the fear of heights...A bull stock will always make 52weeks high, a bear stock prices will always make 52week lows.. The problem with ppl is that when a share hits a new 52week high...ppl tend to take profit to be safe...to ride a bull market to the max..one should overcome this fear of heights...look at the stock market now (STI, DOW etc) the stocks are hitting 52 week highs or lows...

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell"
- Sir John Templeton

I am for sure its not maximum optimism yet...i think its on a the scepticism stage....

[cbsh38584]

3. Overcome the fear of heights...A bull stock will always make 52weeks high, a bear stock prices will always make 52week lows.. The problem with ppl is that when a share hits a new 52week high...ppl tend to take profit to be safe...to ride a bull market to the max..one should overcome this fear of heights...look at the stock market now (STI, DOW etc) the stocks are hitting 52 week highs or lows...

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell"
- Sir John Templeton

I am for sure its not maximum optimism yet...i think its on a the scepticism stage....

I hv attended a investment seminar talk by Guru Tan Kee Wee at the ART house in early Mar13. I was very surprised that this GURU predicted that STI index will drop >30%. He asked the audience to take profit.

Do U know him ? I find a waste of money $40 to attend his seminar.

rdgs,
Vic

[lionhill]

I hv attended a investment seminar talk by Guru Tan Kee Wee at the ART house in early Mar13. I was very surprised that this GURU predicted that STI index will drop >30%. He asked the audience to take profit.

Do U know him ? I find a waste of money $40 to attend his seminar.

rdgs,
Vic

read this to evaluate how much his advice worth.

http://miniliew.blogspot.sg/2012/02/money-talks.html

[lionhill]

read this to evaluate how much his advice worth.

http://miniliew.blogspot.sg/2012/02/money-talks.html

this one makes me, a layman to investment, laugh.

http://miniliew.blogspot.sg/2012/09/...alk-again.html

[toiletsiao]

I hv attended a investment seminar talk by Guru Tan Kee Wee at the ART house in early Mar13. I was very surprised that this GURU predicted that STI index will drop >30%. He asked the audience to take profit.

Do U know him ? I find a waste of money $40 to attend his seminar.

rdgs,
Vic

I heard about him on radio...i think FM93.8 was promoting it recently... 30% correction is too steep liao imo .. theres no reason to justify such a huge drop too especially when fundamentally most of singapore blue chips are posting record earnings and their balance sheet is better than it has ever been...

[cbsh38584]

read this to evaluate how much his advice worth.

http://miniliew.blogspot.sg/2012/02/money-talks.html

His advice must have made many of his followers very disppointed. I cant believe when he says STI will crash to below index 2000 & advice them to take profit in Mar13.



There is another coming investment seminar by this Taiwaness stock Guru Wu Li Yang. I will be attending with my friend. It is on 28th Apr13 on Sunday.S$128. www.ticketbooth.com.sg.

rdgs,
Vic

[toiletsiao]

His advice must have made many of his followers very disppointed. I cant believe when he says STI will crash to below index 2000 & advice them to take profit in Mar13.



There is another coming investment seminar by this Taiwaness stock Guru Wu Li Yang. I will be attending with my friend. It is on 28th Apr13 on Sunday.S$128. www.ticketbooth.com.sg.

rdgs,
Vic

Nice... Ithink u will be entertained.... Haha

[Laguna]

What about we have a date on that day as well

[buttercarp]

I would rather spend the money on the phantom of the opera.

[cbsh38584]

Nice... Ithink u will be entertained.... Haha

I hv not attended his investment talk b4. It is my friend who ask me to attend together with him. I hv seen him in Channel U , Taiwan TV & China CCTV program talking about investment strategy. Maybe it is another like Chan Yan chong from HK which is quite boring.

rdgs,
Vic

[cbsh38584]

wah today all the "lau jio" share and contribute. I really like this thread as I can learn a lot and I need to lear fast because I am managing 4mio of reverse morgtgage funds.... sweating...

now Laguna starts to slowly exit which really get me worry. wonder if my backside really itch to venture into this.

anyway since the funds are out, have to do something about it as there is the montly mortgage payment. conciously, I will continue to invest and my strategy is as long as I dont lose, i am happy...

Laguna/Vic make sure your mail box got space for me when I need advice.

BTW DC2008, the Cedar house is going for >$4mio, no negotiation. Your mailbox also full when i tried to reply you the last time.

Brother Chestnut,
Was a bit worried earlier but after reading your posts, i think is not going to be end of the world.

"my strategy is as long as I dont lose, i am happy". This is a typical human weakness trading behaviour in investment. Once your investment goes wrong. I bet you may not sell your share because your emotional weakness trading behaviour tell me that you are not able to accept the PAINFUL cut loss strategy.


Pls stick to dividend stock. U cant go for volatile stock with no dividend payout. U will become a very long term investor collecting zero dividend for many mths or even years if your investment turn wrong.

rdgs,
Vic

[chestnut]

Brudder stl, please read this

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/sha...212408962.html

Interpret the meaning above. There are many ways to interpret.... Jialat, opportunity, etc...

Now read below, and u will have a clue what is going to happen within this 2 years. Hahahaha

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afonteve...-2016-goldman/

[buttercarp]

"my strategy is as long as I dont lose, i am happy". This is a typical human weakness trading behaviour in investment. Once your investment goes wrong. I bet you may not sell your share because your emotional weakness trading behaviour tell me that you are not able to accept the PAINFUL cut loss strategy.


Pls stick to dividend stock. U cant go for volatile stock with no dividend payout. U will become a very long term investor collecting zero dividend for many mths or even years if your investment turn wrong.

rdgs,
Vic

Hi bro vic, as a newbie, may I ask you about emotional weakness in trading?
From what I understand from your post, your advice is to let go of the stock if it is dropping.
But what if you made a mistake and bought something (especially if it is a blue chip stock )that is dropping but you don't need the money at this point in time?
Is it ok to be emotional and do nothing?

Can you please advice me on dividend stock?
If the blue chip stock is yielding 3% dividend yield p.a., is that considered a proper dividend?

From your experience, is there any Singapore blue chip stock that didn't pay out dividend?

TIA.

[stl67]

"my strategy is as long as I dont lose, i am happy". This is a typical human weakness trading behaviour in investment. Once your investment goes wrong. I bet you may not sell your share because your emotional weakness trading behaviour tell me that you are not able to accept the PAINFUL cut loss strategy.


Pls stick to dividend stock. U cant go for volatile stock with no dividend payout. U will become a very long term investor collecting zero dividend for many mths or even years if your investment turn wrong.

rdgs,
Vic

Vic,
You are quite right on me . Years back, when i was down on property, I decided to just leave it alone as long as I got holding power. In the end I did make some money from there.

As I am newbie to financial investments , i thought this would be the simplest strategy/method to adopt and that is Holding Power.

I have done a few ELS mostly on SGX blue chip before I got into the 2 equity loans Investment. So far the returns not had, but again nothing to boast about. Again, my simple mind is that: "As long as I dont lose, I am happy".

My portoflios now as follow:

1) 3 bonds 750k as this will give me a fixed coupon to help in my mortgage payment

2) 650k on Funds (bonds and equities) with monthly/quarterly dividends. Dividends to be used for mortgage payment. These funds are bought through UBS as their charge are much better than the local bank.

3) 800k on ELS blue chip. This local banker is very hard working and so far so good, though the yield is nothing to talk about. At least it gets me going to cover future mortgages.

4) 1.3 mio on FCN. Honestly, i am shock at my risk appetite. I am betting on the US/HK counters and are now quite low on the 52 weeks range. I have got a good Std Chart banker advising me on this structure notes, so far it is not near the knock-in range. Earlier, i was more concern of the Knock-out. But recently, the price are coming down to my initial bought level. The yields are 10%.

5) The remaining in cash and waiting for opportunity.

I may partial exit after 2 years if after all the risks I take does not give me my target range of 4-6% yields. Ever since the CMs, most of us know that it is very difficult to make a decent yield from property. This is the reason I wanted to try other kind of investments. Of course your Bonds investments + Laguna + Focus's portfolio really get me excited , but too late for me, bond price too high liao.

So far still can sleep wellm, maybe I have always been a risk taker.

Wish me luck and all the forumers all huat together.

[stl67]

Brudder stl, please read this

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/sha...212408962.html

Interpret the meaning above. There are many ways to interpret.... Jialat, opportunity, etc...

Now read below, and u will have a clue what is going to happen within this 2 years. Hahahaha

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afonteve...-2016-goldman/

Cheers Brudders, I got your point... Next time we got time especially when you retire, can jio me to play golf...

[chestnut]

Cheers Brudders, I got your point... Next time we got time especially when you retire, can jio me to play golf...

Brudder, what is your goal - to have steady income or to grow your wealth.... You must understand your goal then you can move leh....

For me, I was on wealth accumulation over the past 6 years... Did that liao... Now quite steady and have steady stream of passive income..... Of course got quite nice salary along with passive income... Hahahaha

Now I just steady building my passive income.... Wealth accumulation not on my priority list... Hahahahaha.... But exercise mind by looking at some potential multi baggers (US stocks).... If strike, bonus... If didnt, write off lor....

You really need to know if you are on wealth growth or wealth preservation or mixture.... This will make you know what to look for and do the necc reading of material... One thing I can say is the massive % growth of properties are over... I have shared that many times before in the past.... The last purchase I did was in 2012 3Q. I entered purely for passive income... Hahahahaha

Brudder, lastly.... It is important to be able to sleep well at nite... Not everything can make money lah... If not, we will have midas touch... What is important is at the end of the year, you make money lor.... Dont make also OK.... Then you will enjoy life and not worry so much.... Remember, be HAPPY AND THINK POSITIVE.... That's what life is all about...

Cheers

[chestnut]

I would rather spend the money on the phantom of the opera.

Wah sis, you also love broadway.... I saw this in NY ... Damn good... Did you watch Jersey Boys???

[buttercarp]

Wah sis, you also love broadway.... I saw this in NY ... Damn good... Did you watch Jersey Boys???

Actually hoh, for Broadway I only watched Phantom, Wicked and Mama mia .

Haven't watched Jersey Boys yet.

Other non broadways watched are Les mis- (watched the musical twice and watched the movie), Cats and Annie.

[chestnut]

Actually hoh, for Broadway I only watched Phantom, Wicked and Mama mia .

Haven't watched Jersey Boys yet.

Other non broadways watched are Les mis- (watched the musical twice and watched the movie), Cats and Annie.

U should try local plays as well.. Very nice...

[Lovelle]

hi Vic

there seems to be a cost for you in reentering into property game.

ABSD !!

Just keep your current portfolio ..lor

Vic,
You are quite right on me . Years back, when i was down on property, I decided to just leave it alone as long as I got holding power. In the end I did make some money from there.

As I am newbie to financial investments , i thought this would be the simplest strategy/method to adopt and that is Holding Power.

I have done a few ELS mostly on SGX blue chip before I got into the 2 equity loans Investment. So far the returns not had, but again nothing to boast about. Again, my simple mind is that: "As long as I dont lose, I am happy".

My portoflios now as follow:

1) 3 bonds 750k as this will give me a fixed coupon to help in my mortgage payment

2) 650k on Funds (bonds and equities) with monthly/quarterly dividends. Dividends to be used for mortgage payment. These funds are bought through UBS as their charge are much better than the local bank.

3) 800k on ELS blue chip. This local banker is very hard working and so far so good, though the yield is nothing to talk about. At least it gets me going to cover future mortgages.

4) 1.3 mio on FCN. Honestly, i am shock at my risk appetite. I am betting on the US/HK counters and are now quite low on the 52 weeks range. I have got a good Std Chart banker advising me on this structure notes, so far it is not near the knock-in range. Earlier, i was more concern of the Knock-out. But recently, the price are coming down to my initial bought level. The yields are 10%.

5) The remaining in cash and waiting for opportunity.

I may partial exit after 2 years if after all the risks I take does not give me my target range of 4-6% yields. Ever since the CMs, most of us know that it is very difficult to make a decent yield from property. This is the reason I wanted to try other kind of investments. Of course your Bonds investments + Laguna + Focus's portfolio really get me excited , but too late for me, bond price too high liao.

So far still can sleep wellm, maybe I have always been a risk taker.

Wish me luck and all the forumers all huat together.

[chestnut]

hi Vic

there seems to be a cost for you in reentering into property game.

ABSD !!

Just keep your current portfolio ..lor

Brudder Lovelle, someone just offered me 2 mil for one of my units even though I listing for rental.... I scratch head... I sell and then I buy can only afford 1.8mil... Wa lau, machiam like downgrade.... Hahahahaha

So you are rite.... Just hold on to the title deed.... At nite, sleep and hug tight tight... Hahahahaha

[stl67]

buttercarp sis, we are like in the same boat... onli i started earlier...

good luck to your learning experience.

Brudder Chestnut,
have not think so deep yet on either wealth growth or wealth preservation. right now I am sitting on decent paper gain on my properties. But, cannot sell leh because of SSD. If after sell then buy, got to pay ABSD.. seow liao..

[cbsh38584]

Vic,
You are quite right on me . Years back, when i was down on property, I decided to just leave it alone as long as I got holding power. In the end I did make some money from there.

As I am newbie to financial investments , i thought this would be the simplest strategy/method to adopt and that is Holding Power.

I have done a few ELS mostly on SGX blue chip before I got into the 2 equity loans Investment. So far the returns not had, but again nothing to boast about. Again, my simple mind is that: "As long as I dont lose, I am happy".

My portoflios now as follow:

1) 3 bonds 750k as this will give me a fixed coupon to help in my mortgage payment

2) 650k on Funds (bonds and equities) with monthly/quarterly dividends. Dividends to be used for mortgage payment. These funds are bought through UBS as their charge are much better than the local bank.

3) 800k on ELS blue chip. This local banker is very hard working and so far so good, though the yield is nothing to talk about. At least it gets me going to cover future mortgages.

4) 1.3 mio on FCN. Honestly, i am shock at my risk appetite. I am betting on the US/HK counters and are now quite low on the 52 weeks range. I have got a good Std Chart banker advising me on this structure notes, so far it is not near the knock-in range. Earlier, i was more concern of the Knock-out. But recently, the price are coming down to my initial bought level. The yields are 10%.

5) The remaining in cash and waiting for opportunity.

I may partial exit after 2 years if after all the risks I take does not give me my target range of 4-6% yields. Ever since the CMs, most of us know that it is very difficult to make a decent yield from property. This is the reason I wanted to try other kind of investments. Of course your Bonds investments + Laguna + Focus's portfolio really get me excited , but too late for me, bond price too high liao.

So far still can sleep wellm, maybe I have always been a risk taker.

Wish me luck and all the forumers all huat together.

Did your banker perform your risk profile accessment ? If it is 2-3 level, he/she cannot introduce ELN/FCN derivative product to U. ELN/FCN risk level is >7. ELN/FCN go can to ZERO worst case. It is against MAS guidance. It can be only bond or balance fund. Unless you did your risk profile accessment blindly without knowing the unintended consequence.


In HK, they are very dead serious in accessing your risk profile & will strictly comply to it. Unless U change your risk profile level from 2-3 to 7-8. If not, the hk banker will not let U do ELN/FCN etc. If a investor risk is 2-3 & they introduce a 7-8 derivate product & exeute for the client. The client can sue the HK bank & >90% will win in court against the HK bank if the investment really go wrong.

U are taking a high risk. You borrow against the equity loan to invest in high risk investment product. Your "SO FAR RETURN NOT BAD" may not be far from major big risk downturn if FED decides to withdraw QE out of sudden beyond our expectation date . But many people believe the mkt has further upside. I hope so.


Your banker is hard working because he/she needs U to invest actively. He/She may not know your real goal in your investment & may dont even care. So long U trade, he/she will be happy to work hard for U.

Most bankers are given a tgt to hit. It can be as high as 30 to 50 millions. So their brain is focus on 30 to 50 millions tgt. Not your goal.

rdgs,
Vic

[chestnut]

buttercarp sis, we are like in the same boat... onli i started earlier...

good luck to your learning experience.

Brudder Chestnut,
have not think so deep yet on either wealth growth or wealth preservation. right now I am sitting on decent paper gain on my properties. But, cannot sell leh because of SSD. If after sell then buy, got to pay ABSD.. seow liao..

U must know your goal leh.... You can have mix of both.... Then apportion it to chase your dream.....

Please dont sell your props hor.... some one offered me 2mil and if I sell, can only get a 1.8mil prop.... Seow liao.... Good luck in your investment....

The key with other instruments like stocks is - You must know what to look for then you know if will go up or not... And it can be really tedious but rewarding....

[stl67]

Did your banker perform your risk profile accessment ? If it is 2-3 level, he/she cannot introduce ELN/FCN derivative product to U. ELN/FCN risk level is >7. ELN/FCN go can to ZERO worst case. It is against MAS guidance. It can be only bond or balance fund. Unless you did your risk profile accessment blindly without knowing the unintended consequence.


In HK, they are very dead serious in accessing your risk profile & will strictly comply to it. Unless U change your risk profile level from 2-3 to 7-8. If not, the hk banker will not let U do ELN/FCN etc. If a investor risk is 2-3 & they introduce a 7-8 derivate product & exeute for the client. The client can sue the HK bank & >90% will win in court against the HK bank if the investment really go wrong.

U are taking a high risk. You borrow against the equity loan to invest in high risk investment product. Your "SO FAR RETURN NOT BAD" may not be far from major big risk downturn if FED decides to withdraw QE out of sudden beyond our expectation date . But many people believe the mkt has further upside. I hope so.


Your banker is hard working because he/she needs U to invest actively. He/She may not know your real goal in your investment & may dont even care. So long U trade, he/she will be happy to work hard for U.

Most bankers are given a tgt to hit. It can be as high as 30 to 50 millions. So their brain is focus on 30 to 50 millions tgt. Not your goal.

rdgs,
Vic

Before the banker did the risk profile with me, we have a few chats and then/finally he explained to me that we need to adjust the risk profiles if I want to do ELN and some riskier products. The rest as you know lah, most bankers will protect themself and will say at the end of the day, it is our call. So you are right that I half blindly do the risk profile assesment with them and I must say I am a riskier person.

Honestly, I am also worry of the FED removing the QE and then interest rate starts to climb. So far I have no exit plan for this except that I need to ensure that there is enough liqudity to service the mortgagea, even in the worst case situation. My excel skill quite good, so I did future Cash flow projections to ensure there is always liquidity provided that those fix coupon securities do not default.

Liquidity will ensure holding power just like businessman and the prove? For eg, during the Lehman crisis, I forced sell 1 of the condo so that I can continue floating and move on. (No point looking back).

This time round, I am more prepare. Why? My 2 equity loans (1 my own and the other family shared and I am majority) are fully paid so my take is that the chance of margin call is slimmer. I might be wrong.... After thinking for so long, I really have no idea on how to generate more $$.. so decided to take some risk...

As always, I appreciate your advice and contribution.

[Lovelle]

Brudder Lovelle, someone just offered me 2 mil for one of my units even though I listing for rental.... I scratch head... I sell and then I buy can only afford 1.8mil... Wa lau, machiam like downgrade.... Hahahahaha

So you are rite.... Just hold on to the title deed.... At nite, sleep and hug tight tight... Hahahahaha

Wah, when u sleep, u must be smiling ...haha
just keep it la, u are our model answer mah...

for others they play bond, stocks all risky risky and must use a lot of neuron to analysed.

For property investor, we like to sleep early and watch K-drama or do whatever hobby we like

[cbsh38584]

FYI. Be informed. Know when to reduce your borrowing fast b4 it come.

Wealthy Asian investors who’ve borrowed against their houses to buy bonds may find themselves among forced sellers if interest rates rise, spurring a price slump in vulnerable securities, according to Barclays .



rdgs,
vic

[chestnut]

Wah, when u sleep, u must be smiling ...haha
just keep it la, u are our model answer mah...

for others they play bond, stocks all risky risky and must use a lot of neuron to analysed.

For property investor, we like to sleep early and watch K-drama or do whatever hobby we like

Brudder Lovelle, I am 95% of the time happy and optimistic.... The brain is a very important part of your well being... It will determine the outcome of situation....

Brudder, honestly - please dabble a small portion in stocks leh... Why? you will be forced to read up on the market and keep abreast of current situation... U can then in future make decision to buy or sell your properties...but never sell all ok....

For stocks, it is higher than previous peak, so there will be a correction but I really don't see a crash leh.... A crash only happens at Euphoria and champagne popping events.... I don't see it leh... Everyone I know is so sceptical and still mindful of Lehman saga leh....

We just went thru a nitemare... The US have learnt their lesson from the 1929 recession. They pull out the pumping of money and the economy spiraled into another deep recession.... So they have learnt it well....

Cheers Lovelle.... U are doing well my friend....

[Lovelle]

hi brudder chestnut

it's too late for me to sell . Just collect small small rental, just learnt to be contented.

i play small small in stocks. Usually blue chips for dividend.

Once i start to read too many business news, my head will start to ache. Prefer to think where to visit for my next holiday...