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Thread: Middle Age Is a Prime for Finance

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    Default Middle Age Is a Prime for Finance

    • October 4, 2011, 4:04 p.m. ET
    Older but Wiser: Middle Age Is a Prime Time for Finance






    By JONATHAN BURTON

    Don't trust anyone over 30. That was a rallying cry for the counterculture 1960s. But nowadays, people seeking investment advice probably should be suspicious of anyone under 50.

    Middle age may be the Golden Age for investing. Jonathan Burton, Money & Investing Editor of MarketWatch, explains why.

    A study titled "What is the Age of Reason?" concludes that middle-aged people make fewer mistakes with finances than those who are younger or older. The study even pegged the optimal point in life for handling money-related decisions: 53, give or take a few calendar pages.

    Marketwatch Associate Editor Jonathan Burton makes the case that for sound financial advice, investors should seek out individuals over the age of 50. AP Photo.


    In the 2009 study, published by the Brookings Institution, researchers looked at the ability of different age groups to manage financial transactions including credit-card-balance transfer offers, home-equity loans, car loans and mortgage loans. The testers found that 53.3 years, to be exact, is the mean age at which financial missteps occur least often.
    Jon Krause


    Based on the evidence found in the research, anyone between 43 and 63 "is really in their cognitive sweet spot," says David Laibson, a Harvard University professor and, at 45, the oldest of the study's four authors.
    While the paper advocates the need for policies to protect the elderly from costly errors, it also echoes scientific work on cognitive function that paints middle age as something of a golden age. Not only financial judgment but social skills and general well-being reach a zenith as people cross the half-century mark.
    It's true that the ability to analyze, process and retain new information—what scientists call "fluid intelligence"—peaks around age 20. But another type of smarts, "crystallized intelligence"—otherwise known as experience and knowledge—actually builds with age.
    Just look at the 20-something day traders and mutual-fund managers during the late 1990s dot-com boom who argued that "this time it's different." Meanwhile, famed value-stock investor Warren Buffett, then pushing 70, was dismissed as hopelessly out of touch for not buying the technology hype. Where are those Internet-stock fund managers now—and, moreover, their high-octane funds? Not in Mr. Buffett's league, for sure.
    So the next time you talk with a financial adviser or broker, instead of inquiring about investment performance, you might want to ask, "How old are you?"
    "The older you get, the smarter you get," says Harold Evensky, a 69-year-old financial adviser based in Coral Gables, Fla. "I think I am a significantly better practitioner than I was 10 or 20 years ago. That comes from experience and from the fact that I continue to read [financial] journals, talk to people and teach a graduate course." (Mr. Evensky is an adjunct professor at Texas Tech University in Lubbock, Texas.)
    "I really wouldn't want to go to a wealth adviser who is 25 or 30," says Laura Carstensen, director of the Stanford Center on Longevity at Stanford University, who is 57. "That's an area where you want experience. You want someone who's seen things go well, and not so well."
    It's not uncommon to find professionals like Mr. Evensky going strong well into their 60s and 70s—and proud of it.
    "This is no market for young men," says Jeremy Grantham, the 72-year-old chairman of Boston-based investment manager GMO LLC, about the volatile investment climate that investors have faced this year.
    Mr. Grantham says the bear market of 1973-74, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost almost half of its value, was a painful but powerful education that he was able to tap in the 2007-09 downturn—and again this year.
    Mr. Laibson, the Harvard professor, says, "Age brings us the ability to contextualize, the ability to find the right analogy, to see what worked in the past and what didn't. People with decades of experience in the financial markets are in the best position to get it right."
    Mr. Burton is the Money & Investing editor at MarketWatch in San Francisco. He can be reached at [email protected].

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    +liked liked.
    For investors, definitely need mentors ... Shortened learning curve as well as losses. This part i am saying might be a little controversial ..But I think must find mentors who are at least your level or one or more level up your networth.

    My own experience.. in playing pool or snooker when i was young..
    If you play with the poor players regularly.. a good player will get drag down but the good player will regain his standard very fast when he plays with another good player.. But if you are a poor player and a good player is willing to play with you regularly.. you will find yourself drag up .. and suddenly you are advancing faster than those poor players who play among themselves.

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    I personally think that whether one is a good investor or not has nothing to do with age, but with the years of experience he has in investment.

    If you start young, you can afford the price you pay in any loss. Even if you lose all, when you are young, you don't have much in the first place. And whatever you lose, you still have the chance (and time) to earn it back one day.

    Nevertheless, I agree that one can have intelligence at any age, but wisdom comes only with age and experience.

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    Quote Originally Posted by focus
    +liked liked.
    For investors, definitely need mentors ... Shortened learning curve as well as losses. This part i am saying might be a little controversial ..But I think must find mentors who are at least your level or one or more level up your networth.

    My own experience.. in playing pool or snooker when i was young..
    If you play with the poor players regularly.. a good player will get drag down but the good player will regain his standard very fast when he plays with another good player.. But if you are a poor player and a good player is willing to play with you regularly.. you will find yourself drag up .. and suddenly you are advancing faster than those poor players who play among themselves.
    I totally agree with you.

    When I first started investing in properties ten years ago, how I wish I could find successsful investors who don't mind sharing their experience. And all the unnecessary mistakes I could have avoided along the way ...

    That's why I started a property blog to share my past experience and find like-minded investors.

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    Quote Originally Posted by vip
    I totally agree with you.

    When I first started investing in properties ten years ago, how I wish I could find successsful investors who don't mind sharing their experience. And all the unnecessary mistakes I could have avoided along the way ...

    That's why I started a property blog to share my past experience and find like-minded investors.
    i'm just glad I found this forum with so many participants who are on the ground as agent investors and other straight-on investors who shared F.O.C.

    Of course , your blog is very interesting I found it here too ..

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    Quote Originally Posted by focus
    i'm just glad I found this forum with so many participants who are on the ground as agent investors and other straight-on investors who shared F.O.C.

    Of course , your blog is very interesting I found it here too ..
    Thanks!

    The best way to learn something is to share what you learn.

    Since I started my blog two years ago, every week I got questions from newbies and also notes from experienced investors sharing what they know.

    For that, I'm really grateful

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    happy that I have not reached my Prime yet and already in good company of old birds and experts here.

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    we shall start a mentor / mentee group

    registration starts now

    Mentor :


    Mentee :

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    Quote Originally Posted by vip
    Thanks!

    The best way to learn something is to share what you learn.

    Since I started my blog two years ago, every week I got questions from newbies and also notes from experienced investors sharing what they know.

    For that, I'm really grateful
    Hi Vip, how come you don't have Google Adsense in your blog?

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    Quote Originally Posted by buttercarp
    Hi Vip, how come you don't have Google Adsense in your blog?
    I set up my personal blog Property Soul two years ago, with two major purposes:


    1) To share my experiences as a property investor and a landlord over the years; and


    2) To exchange ideas with property investors on accumulating wealth through properties.


    I'm not interested in the distraction of advertisement with no control.


    I guess the excitement from getting a few bucks from Adsense is nowhere near to finding good deals and locking in the profit when I sell them, isn't it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by vip
    I set up my personal blog Property Soul two years ago, with two major purposes:


    1) To share my experiences as a property investor and a landlord over the years; and


    2) To exchange ideas with property investors on accumulating wealth through properties.


    I'm not interested in the distraction of advertisement with no control.


    I guess the excitement from getting a few bucks from Adsense is nowhere near to finding good deals and locking in the profit when I sell them, isn't it?
    Oh dear, you sound so confrontational and atas!
    Just asking a harmless question can generate so much emotion from you.

    I guess a few bucks does not make make any difference to the amount of rental you collect each month.

    In that case, please ignore my sisterly suggestion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by buttercarp
    Oh dear, you sound so confrontational and atas!
    Just asking a harmless question can generate so much emotion from you.

    I guess a few bucks does not make make any difference to the amount of rental you collect each month.

    In that case, please ignore my sisterly suggestion.
    Oops, sorry if I sound negative to you. But I'm simply saying that I'm not interested. And I really don't mind ads in other people's blogs. I guess this is just personal preference.

    By the way, I have sold my whole property portfolio and I don't have any rental return now

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    Quote Originally Posted by vip
    Oops, sorry if I sound negative to you. But I'm simply saying that I'm not interested. And I really don't mind ads in other people's blogs. I guess this is just personal preference.

    By the way, I have sold my whole property portfolio and I don't have any rental return now
    Hi, no worries .
    I tot that ads make things more alive, but it can be quite messy n distracting too.
    Wow...... U sold all your property?
    I guess you must be waiting to get hold of somemore?
    Btw, haven't seen your vote in richwang's Buyer Attitude Index .

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    Quote Originally Posted by vip
    Oops, sorry if I sound negative to you. But I'm simply saying that I'm not interested. And I really don't mind ads in other people's blogs. I guess this is just personal preference.

    By the way, I have sold my whole property portfolio and I don't have any rental return now
    you gave up that beautiful view from your apt in bedok court....sigh

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    Quote Originally Posted by radha08
    you gave up that beautiful view from your apt in bedok court....sigh

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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    we shall start a mentor / mentee group

    registration starts now

    Mentor :


    Mentee :
    I take all inputs to form my opinion. So mentor is everyone in here

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    I'm more than willing to let go of my properties, based on the price points I entered the market, and let other people continue to take the remaining profit (and bear the risk for me). Afterall, paper profit is not a real profit.

    Like what Jim Cramer said,
    "Amateurs are worried that they aren’t making enough, but pros are worried that they are making too much."
    Frankly, just because property ads are everywhere doesn't mean that the best return is there. You know what I mean if you've seen how other assets have appreciated over the last two years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by vip
    Afterall, paper profit is not a real profit.
    Exactly! I could never understand why people are getting all excited about the rise in value of their only property when there is hardly any possibility of them selling it!
    树大必有枯枝,人多必有白痴。
    树无皮必死无疑,人不要脸天下无敌!

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    Quote Originally Posted by vip
    Afterall, paper profit is not a real profit.
    Super LIKE!

    That's why I don't understand why one of my friends got a few condos but family of 5 plus 2 dogs and 1 maid squeeze in 1200 sq ft condo.

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    A hawker who used to sell you a glass of soya bean drink at 40cents 10yrs ago, but now sell you at 80cents ... does it make him richer or happier?

    LOL

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    Quote Originally Posted by vip
    I'm more than willing to let go of my properties, based on the price points I entered the market, and let other people continue to take the remaining profit (and bear the risk for me). Afterall, paper profit is not a real profit.

    Like what Jim Cramer said,
    "Amateurs are worried that they aren’t making enough, but pros are worried that they are making too much."
    Frankly, just because property ads are everywhere doesn't mean that the best return is there. You know what I mean if you've seen how other assets have appreciated over the last two years.
    now I do agree with you on this. considering you are out of the market yet actively sharing your experience here with 0 agenda, it is commendable indeed.

    for me, although I share here and there, my agenda is obvious. I am vested in certain areas but am not at any pinnacle at all in the property game, so I need to continue to generate discussion in order to learn from the more experienced here.

    different folks here are good at different areas in investment.

    I have seen some expert at measurement, some in space planning, some at tracking construction progress, some at photography, some expert at timing the market, some expert at specific areas and segments, some just plain expert because, like you, they are willing to share their past years and decades of experience despite some parts being painful learning simply because you are generous enough to.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zeamybro
    A hawker who used to sell you a glass of soya bean drink at 40cents 10yrs ago, but now sell you at 80cents ... does it make him richer or happier?

    LOL
    everyone happier. because now just need to get 20 cent coin change instead of fumbling to make up 60cents.

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    my amateur thinking:

    buying $1m property
    stamp fee -24,600.00
    absd -30,000.00
    legal -2,500.00
    upfront payment - cash/cpf -400,000.00
    loan (60%) -600,000.00
    that means i need to fork out cpf+cash = -457,100.00

    assuming can earn nett 2% rental yield after all cost(loan interest, tax, maintenance fee, etc), meaning each year 20k earn from rental

    20k/457k = 4.38% return over upfront capital

    4.38% is like not so attractive leh,
    and if loan interest rate up
    and if prop price drop

    but there are so many people buying, i must have missed something,
    all the experts... can enlighten pls? or maybe my calculation is wrong...

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    Ok, let me name 2 senarios :

    1. Assume interest rate goes up to 4% and your loan is 600K and 30 years :
    Input the following :
    Mortgage repayment -
    Expected monthly rental -

    Please input findings : Do you think rental can cover?

    After 30 years, is your house fully paid? Can you continue to collect rental? What do you think the house is worth after 30 years?

    2. Assume price increase 5% a year for the next 2 years.
    In total after 2 years, what is the % you gain? Then do your ROI.

    You assume price drop, but you did not assume price up. I am not saying price will go up. But there are people buying who thinks prices will go up over the next 3 years or so. So, if you think prices will go down, then your not buying is correct.

    The only thing I can say is - People always say when prices go down, I will buy, but when it happens, they start worrying about their jobs because they see so many of their friends losing their jobs. So to me it is bullshit. If you are really in the came, make sure you have certain knowledge such that you are always in demand even during recession. The other option is either come out of the right hole or find the right hole. Why??? Because > 95% of us are not born rich.

    Oops, 1 more thing to add :
    I typically buy during low season.
    I may sell some during high season.
    And I may buy if I spot good buys during any season.

    Quote Originally Posted by taggy
    my amateur thinking:

    buying $1m property
    stamp fee -24,600.00
    absd -30,000.00
    legal -2,500.00
    upfront payment - cash/cpf -400,000.00
    loan (60%) -600,000.00
    that means i need to fork out cpf+cash = -457,100.00

    assuming can earn nett 2% rental yield after all cost(loan interest, tax, maintenance fee, etc), meaning each year 20k earn from rental

    20k/457k = 4.38% return over upfront capital

    4.38% is like not so attractive leh,
    and if loan interest rate up
    and if prop price drop

    but there are so many people buying, i must have missed something,
    all the experts... can enlighten pls? or maybe my calculation is wrong...
    Last edited by chestnut; 17-10-12 at 11:20.

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    Quote Originally Posted by carbuncle
    now I do agree with you on this. considering you are out of the market yet actively sharing your experience here with 0 agenda, it is commendable indeed.

    for me, although I share here and there, my agenda is obvious. I am vested in certain areas but am not at any pinnacle at all in the property game, so I need to continue to generate discussion in order to learn from the more experienced here.

    different folks here are good at different areas in investment.

    I have seen some expert at measurement, some in space planning, some at tracking construction progress, some at photography, some expert at timing the market, some expert at specific areas and segments, some just plain expert because, like you, they are willing to share their past years and decades of experience despite some parts being painful learning simply because you are generous enough to.
    Thanks for saying what I'm actually doing. I don't expect everyone to agree with me but I still don't mind sharing and contributing my two-cent worth.

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    Well said. Opportunists have to be ready at all times.
    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    Ok, let me name 2 senarios :

    1. Assume interest rate goes up to 4% and your loan is 600K and 30 years :
    Input the following :
    Mortgage repayment -
    Expected monthly rental -

    Please input findings : Do you think rental can cover?

    After 30 years, is your house fully paid? Can you continue to collect rental? What do you think the house is worth after 30 years?

    2. Assume price increase 5% a year for the next 2 years.
    In total after 2 years, what is the % you gain? Then do your ROI.

    You assume price drop, but you did not assume price up. I am not saying price will go up. But there are people buying who thinks prices will go up over the next 3 years or so. So, if you think prices will go down, then your not buying is correct.

    The only thing I can say is - People always say when prices go down, I will buy, but when it happens, they start worrying about their jobs because they see so many of their friends losing their jobs. So to me it is bullshit. If you are really in the came, make sure you have certain knowledge such that you are always in demand even during recession. The other option is either come out of the right hole or find the right hole. Why??? Because > 95% of us are not born rich.

    Oops, 1 more thing to add :
    I typically buy during low season.
    I may sell some during high season.
    And I may buy if I spot good buys during any season.

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by taggy
    but there are so many people buying, i must have missed something,
    all the experts... can enlighten pls? or maybe my calculation is wrong...
    Below are some quotes from Jim Rogers. Hope they can enlighten you in some ways as they've once inspired me:
    "Do not let others do your thinking for you ... learn everything that you can ... Rely on your own intelligence."

    "When many people are absolutely sure of something, you should be suspicious."

    "Nearly every time I strayed from the herd, I've made a lot of money. Wandering away from the action is the way to find the new action."

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    Quote Originally Posted by chestnut
    The only thing I can say is - People always say when prices go down, I will buy, but when it happens, they start worrying about their jobs because they see so many of their friends losing their jobs. So to me it is bullshit. If you are really in the came, make sure you have certain knowledge such that you are always in demand even during recession. The other option is either come out of the right hole or find the right hole. Why??? Because > 95% of us are not born rich.

    Oops, 1 more thing to add :
    I typically buy during low season.
    I may sell some during high season.
    And I may buy if I spot good buys during any season.
    Wahlau...hitting all the right holes, bro.

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    Well said. Opportunists have to be ready at all times.
    Same to you. What I really learnt over time is : The only consistency is the inconsistency of our everyday life.
    Be always ready to strike when something good comes along. But to do that, you need to be ready in homework, knowledge and finances.

    Thank goodness for Lasik, now I can see clearer... Hahahaha

    Cheers Bro

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    Quote Originally Posted by Secretariat
    Wahlau...hitting all the right holes, bro.
    Hahaha. Many times I do talk rubbish, but sometimes, my brain do wake up.


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