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Thread: Home prices unlikely to fall in next 12 months, says HSR Marginal increase in prices

  1. #1
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    Default Home prices unlikely to fall in next 12 months, says HSR Marginal increase in prices

    WHILE residential prices can be expected to moderate in the fourth quarter (Q4), they are unlikely to dip in the next 12 months.
    According to Donald Han, special adviser at HSR Property Group, prices of resale housing board (HDB) flats could inch up by 0.5 per cent in Q4 and private non-landed home prices are likely to see a marginal 0-0.5 per cent increase.
    This is in comparison with the expectation that HDB resale prices would increase by 2-2.5 per cent and private non-landed homes would increase 0.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter, before the latest cooling measures were announced, said Mr Han.
    That being said, prices are unlikely to fall, given the low interest rate environment and the fact that the market is flush with liquidity.

  2. #2
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    When they make comments like that, do they actually consider the global economy, or are the comments focussed solely on Singapore property market?

  3. #3
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    Assumption at this stage presume condition will stay the same for the next 12 months.

    Frankly we have seen the worse of Europe and US. The weaker they become the more money are printed.

    So which would u prefer. A booming world economy with high interest rates or a weak world economy with low interest rates?

    So IMO just look at Singapore for the time being.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AK47
    Assumption at this stage presume condition will stay the same for the next 12 months.

    Frankly we have seen the worse of Europe and US. The weaker they become the more money are printed.

    So which would u prefer. A booming world economy with high interest rates or a weak world economy with low interest rates?

    So IMO just look at Singapore for the time being.


    Then we must assume assume that spore remains sheltered from the sick US European economies.

    I am getting info every other day that bankers are being laid off.

    So what if US continues to print money.


    Can we keep our jobs?

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    Last year many bankers predicted that the CMs and global environment will cause a drop of up to 30% this year. It has not materialised.

    Now that they say it is unlikely to drop, what do you think will happen?

    Personally I don't mind it dropping, but the chances based on what I see are very slim.

  6. #6
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    Another way to frame this for new investors is to ask
    "How much can it rise from here?

    Policy is clear - rise outside of GDP trend, new measures come.
    No movement - fine.
    Drop - managed drop is fine, good even.

    With a high break-even of 4% - even 7% (with ABSD), can I get better returns elsewhere or via other financial instruments?

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lovelle
    WHILE residential prices can be expected to moderate in the fourth quarter (Q4), they are unlikely to dip in the next 12 months.
    According to Donald Han, special adviser at HSR Property Group ...
    This is one of those standard statement or comments from property developers and property agencies.

    1) When there are new cooling measures, they say "the market is unlikely to be affected given the stable economy, low interest rate and substainable demand from users ...".


    2) When the market is on its way up, they say "expect prices to have double digit growth this year and will climb xx% by year 201x."

    3) When the market is going down, they say "the property market has bottomed. Investors are coming in for bargains. Expect market to improve and prices to go slightly higher by end of the year."

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    The property market has bucked the trend despite measure after measure. Why? because none of the measures tackled the root cause of the buoyant demand which is :

    POPULATION GROWTH !!!!

    Look at the recent dialogue on population. Our dear big bro is in a dilemna right now. On the one hand, they know that the only solution to our population woes is immigration but on the other, measures which may be construed as detrimental to our immigration efforts will most likely be avoided. So far, speculators, 'hot' money, QE1 to 3 have all been fingered as the cause for the buoyant propety mkt.....everything but the fat lady herself. (no offense to our well endowed companions)

    As long as this carries on and we march along happily to our target population of 6.5m, whatever measure they throw will just slide off the back of the immigration tsunami.
    Last edited by proper-t; 11-10-12 at 15:54.

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    something to chew on....

    Where Do the Wealthiest Expatriates Live?

    By Gauri Bhatia | CNBC Mon, Oct 8, 2012 2:32 PM SGT

    In an annual survey released by HSBC on Monday, conducted across 100 countries and involved more than 5,000 expatriates, Singapore emerged as the most favored expat destination to make money in and accumulate luxuries.

    Foreigners, who make up a sizable portion of Singapore's 5 million-plus population, earn more than those living in any other part of the world. About 54 percent of Singapore-based expats who took part in the poll earn more than $200,000 annually compared to a global average of only 7 percent according to the Expat Explorer 2012 survey.

    Singapore, which came in third place last year, moved up two slots to beat Bermuda at No. 2 and Thailand at No. 3. The three other Asian countries that made it to top 10 are Hong Kong, China and Vietnam.
    The survey, in its fifth year, showed 80 percent of the expats who moved to Singapore saw an increase in their disposable income. Around 44 percent reported an increase of 50 percent or more in their disposable income, compared to the global average of just under a fifth.
    Given the bleak employment picture in both Europe and the United States, job hunters are increasingly looking eastwards for opportunities, with 70 percent of the expats surveyed citing better career prospects for the move to Singapore.


    Better Quality of Life
    In terms of quality of life, Singapore also scored high, coming in fourth in the world and second in Asia after Thailand. Better accommodation, less commuting time and a more active social life were some of the pluses of living in this tropical nation, the survey found.
    Singapore is also child-friendly in the eyes of its expats. Ninety-one percent of the respondents said they felt their children were safer here.

    Costs, however, were a concern with 83 percent saying they are spending more on education for their children.
    "Singapore is fast becoming an all-round expat destination for career progression, financial rewards and quality of life," said Paul Arrowsmith, head of Retail Banking & Wealth Management at HSBC Singapore.

    Where Are They Investing?
    Expats in Singapore do not favor any one asset class and maintain a diversified investment portfolio. Those earning $200,000 to $250,000 per annum have moved over time from a higher proportion of cash investments to a relatively even mix of cash, real estate and equities, the survey found.
    "Expats have come to realize, given wider economic uncertainties, the advantage of diversification to hedge against volatility," wrote HSBC in its survey report

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni
    Last year many bankers predicted that the CMs and global environment will cause a drop of up to 30% this year. It has not materialised.

    Now that they say it is unlikely to drop, what do you think will happen?

    Personally I don't mind it dropping, but the chances based on what I see are very slim.

    and this is forcing Jedi master KenoBiWan to unleash the mother of all CMs.............

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    Quote Originally Posted by eng81157
    and this is forcing Jedi master KenoBiWan to unleash the mother of all CMs.............
    kenobiwan has left it to tharmace windu...unfortunately, we all know what happened to him when the dark side seduced anakin....

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni
    Last year many bankers predicted that the CMs and global environment will cause a drop of up to 30% this year. It has not materialised.

    Now that they say it is unlikely to drop, what do you think will happen?

    Personally I don't mind it dropping, but the chances based on what I see are very slim.
    Think those bankers who made the 30% prediction last year were sent to the live firing ground

  13. #13
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    Keep an eye on our unemployment numbers. So far, it is very strong and resilient thus our property mkt is safe..........for now.

  14. #14
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    But there are people in certain industry are retrenched.
    Quote Originally Posted by avo7007
    Keep an eye on our unemployment numbers. So far, it is very strong and resilient thus our property mkt is safe..........for now.

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