Originally Posted by
Farnie
Pls pardon my comprehension, I fail to see what is your point or argument in the 1st half by presenting all the calculations above. I really `catch no balls' even though you tried to `play ball games' and `score goals'. If you would state your point or question, I will be glad to reply.
With regards to the 2nd half, where you stated 3 reasons to buy, let me share my ideas with you, if I may.
1) Bad times are good times to buy isn't it??
- Agree. But now is not `bad times' yet. Wait till the enbloc projects TOP in 2010/2011, where supply has tripled from pre-enbloc days, lets see if demand has tripled by 2010/2011 to absorb these new supply.
My take is even if the financial situation stablises in the next 12 mths, you will not see expats flocking back in droves, let alone 3x the number back to Sg in 2010/2011 to absorb this supply. Thus its clear to be there will be a supply glut and again history repeats itself.
Thus the arguement that land+construction+development costs is already so much, thus prices cannot go down is irrelevant because in an oversupply mkt, there will be plenty to choose from and its buyers who will call the shots, not sellers.
2) As the old saying goes, buy while its low & sell while its high?
-Very true maxim. And unless you have a different price index from mine, I think the price is still way too high now even if it has corrected somewhat in the past 12 mths.
I see the low in 2010/2011. And I'm not afraid to say this because as stated in point (1), there will be plenty of supply to go around for the patient buyers who waited till then to buy for investments.
3) Don't buy while everybody are buying, & Buy when all are staying away?
- Again, I agree. And I also see the developers not participating in govt land sales and enbloc tenders. So if even developers are staying away, isn't it a sure sign that something is amiss? If px is really going to continue to increase, wouldnt developers try to lock in the `low' land costs now?
Well, my stand has always been buy when its reasonable and I trust my own judgement which has serves me well. Never be driven by your own fear or greed. Overcome them instead.
While I respect that as the project's marketing agent, you are duty-bound to point out the +ve sides of a project. However, you still have a lot to learn in terms of being a professional agent. Otherwise, people will just view you as an order-taker.
Usually I wouldn't bother saying so much, let alone typing so much, in a forum. I only reserved these advices to my surbodinates during year-end evaluation. But market is quite quiet now, and I have also received a fair share of advice from my own mentors in the past so I'm quite happy to spend the last 45 min penning my thoughts.
Whether you listen or not, no loss or gain to me, cheers!