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Thread: How to id The property bubble

  1. #1
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    Default How to id The property bubble

    Many people and even highly trained investment anal-lists are clueless about how to identify a property bubble. They tell you, property price crash arh...economy no good arh.. crash crash crash arh is a bubble.

    BUT...do they really know how to identify the first sign of a property bubble?

    The property bubble occurs first when there are suddenly no takers for any asking price. After several rounds of reducing of prices, there are still no takers. Not because that the prices are not attractive, but simply because the demand had already totally left the market.

    This happens very fast, so fast that sometimes, there are still dreamers left pondering in the market asking for sky high prices. In fact, there will still be some dreaming buyers too.

    Eventually, after about 12 months, the realisation will set in and that is where the real bubble will be evident to all. ALL the time, it will be too late liao.


    Good Luck.

    Disclaimers: Not talking about bubble in any specific market or anywhere but just an explanation of the occurrance of a pricing bubble in its emergence. Just My Humble Opinions Only, not an advice for any investment moves.

    神龙股侠。

  2. #2
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    We are living in a global credit bubble. Wonder when it will burst?
    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21trader
    Many people and even highly trained investment anal-lists are clueless about how to identify a property bubble. They tell you, property price crash arh...economy no good arh.. crash crash crash arh is a bubble.

    BUT...do they really know how to identify the first sign of a property bubble?

    The property bubble occurs first when there are suddenly no takers for any asking price. After several rounds of reducing of prices, there are still no takers. Not because that the prices are not attractive, but simply because the demand had already totally left the market.

    This happens very fast, so fast that sometimes, there are still dreamers left pondering in the market asking for sky high prices. In fact, there will still be some dreaming buyers too.

    Eventually, after about 12 months, the realisation will set in and that is where the real bubble will be evident to all. Most of the time, it will be too late liao.


    Good Luck.

    Disclaimers: Not talking about bubble in any specific market or anywhere but just an explanation of the occurrance of a pricing bubble in its emergence. Just My Humble Opinions Only, not an advice for any investment moves.

    神龙股侠。

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    We are living in a global credit bubble. Wonder when it will burst?
    Well, brother DC33_2008, I wish I have the answer....but the sad fact is, I have no answer .

    WOAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHHAHAHAHAH

  4. #4
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    Japan gone on for 20 years. Still going on... Big brother can probably go on for at least 4 times of that. I will not be able to see it in my lifetime.
    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21trader
    Well, brother DC33_2008, I wish I have the answer....but the sad fact is, I have no answer .

    WOAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHHAHAHAHAH

  5. #5
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    resale is a bubble formed already

  6. #6
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    Why? I thought it is new sale. Anyway, it is all boils down to credit.
    Quote Originally Posted by Eastboy
    resale is a bubble formed already

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21trader
    Many people and even highly trained investment anal-lists are clueless about how to identify a property bubble. They tell you, property price crash arh...economy no good arh.. crash crash crash arh is a bubble.

    BUT...do they really know how to identify the first sign of a property bubble?

    The property bubble occurs first when there are suddenly no takers for any asking price. After several rounds of reducing of prices, there are still no takers. Not because that the prices are not attractive, but simply because the demand had already totally left the market.

    This happens very fast, so fast that sometimes, there are still dreamers left pondering in the market asking for sky high prices. In fact, there will still be some dreaming buyers too.

    Eventually, after about 12 months, the realisation will set in and that is where the real bubble will be evident to all. ALL the time, it will be too late liao.


    Good Luck.

    Disclaimers: Not talking about bubble in any specific market or anywhere but just an explanation of the occurrance of a pricing bubble in its emergence. Just My Humble Opinions Only, not an advice for any investment moves.

    神龙股侠。
    in 2008, vista park 1 bedder asking for 480k, reduce to 400k. reduce to 380k..
    got window-shoppers but no offers.
    finally reduce to 340k, no one offered.. but me.

    that's the market when prices keep reducing, pple just shop and wait for further discount..

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21trader
    Many people and even highly trained investment anal-lists are clueless about how to identify a property bubble. They tell you, property price crash arh...economy no good arh.. crash crash crash arh is a bubble.

    BUT...do they really know how to identify the first sign of a property bubble?

    The property bubble occurs first when there are suddenly no takers for any asking price. After several rounds of reducing of prices, there are still no takers. Not because that the prices are not attractive, but simply because the demand had already totally left the market.

    This happens very fast, so fast that sometimes, there are still dreamers left pondering in the market asking for sky high prices. In fact, there will still be some dreaming buyers too.

    Eventually, after about 12 months, the realisation will set in and that is where the real bubble will be evident to all. ALL the time, it will be too late liao.

    Good Luck.

    Disclaimers: Not talking about bubble in any specific market or anywhere but just an explanation of the occurrance of a pricing bubble in its emergence. Just My Humble Opinions Only, not an advice for any investment moves.

    神龙股侠。
    There is no "bubble" yet in Singapore's residential market and the government is taking steps to ensure the sector does not overheat, the city-state's senior statesman Lee Kuan Yew said on Friday.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2010/0...65O0EV20100625


    Look at history and you will know the first sign of bubble. There is no sign.

    When the property is support by rental and low interest rate after 12 months it will be still the same.

    Just need to pray to the Jesus. Ask and it will be given to you; seek and you will find; knock and the door will be opened to you.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon
    There is no "bubble" yet in Singapore's residential market and the government is taking steps to ensure the sector does not overheat, the city-state's senior statesman Lee Kuan Yew said on Friday.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2010/0...65O0EV20100625


    Look at history and you will know the first sign of bubble. There is no sign.

    When the property is support by rental and low interest rate after 12 months it will be still the same.

    Just need to pray to the Jesus. Ask and it will be given to you; seek and you will find; knock and the door will be opened to you.
    in year 2008 4th quarter, interest rate also pretty low.. 1.5%- 1.8% max.
    pls correct me if % is wrong

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    Simple bishan indicator, if sky habitat sold out in 2 weeks at 1700psf
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  11. #11
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    what are the effect of credit bubble?

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    Quote Originally Posted by roly8
    what are the effect of credit bubble?
    Huat Ah.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jwong71
    in year 2008 4th quarter, interest rate also pretty low.. 1.5%- 1.8% max.
    pls correct me if % is wrong


    http://www.bankrate.com/finance/fede...-timeline.aspx

    The World don't know what is money printing then. QE3 coming soon

  14. #14
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    It started in 1968 and reagan the actor has really made it big time.
    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon


    http://www.bankrate.com/finance/fede...-timeline.aspx

    The World don't know what is money printing then. QE3 coming soon

  15. #15
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    siao sia...


    Market participants with overvalued assets tend to spend more because they "feel" richer (the wealth effect). Many observers quote the housing market in the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Spain and parts of the United States in recent times, as an example of this effect.[citation needed] When the bubble inevitably bursts, those who hold on to these overvalued assets usually experience a feeling of reduced wealth and tend to cut discretionary spending at the same time, hindering economic growth or, worse, exacerbating the economic slowdown.

  16. #16
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    Very easy to spot a bubble:
    when the gov officers keep telling u there is no bubble!
    Be it Greenspan or L**

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    It can be the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back... sending a sharp prick into the bubble.

    And suddenly everyone realises that the emperor is not wearing any clothes.....

    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    Simple bishan indicator, if sky habitat sold out in 2 weeks at 1700psf

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by jwong71
    in 2008, vista park 1 bedder asking for 480k, reduce to 400k. reduce to 380k..
    got window-shoppers but no offers.
    finally reduce to 340k, no one offered.. but me.

    that's the market when prices keep reducing, pple just shop and wait for further discount..
    So you the one who bought... I was looking at it too... Only concern was place very old... But huge plot.

  19. #19
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    Mediacorp has 3000 people moving around that area in 2015. Should not have problem renting it out at good yield.
    Quote Originally Posted by carbuncle
    So you the one who bought... I was looking at it too... Only concern was place very old... But huge plot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by carbuncle
    So you the one who bought... I was looking at it too... Only concern was place very old... But huge plot.
    i could bgt it at 320k, engaged into a price war with another agent's buyer..

  21. #21
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    How to spot a bubble ... very simple!

    I believe most people here own properties.

    So it makes the job easy.

    List your property for sale, ask for 5% above last done.
    Tell agent base price is last done.

    Then sit back and wait to see if there is a bubble.

    If you get offer --> market still healthy.
    If you DONT get offer --> lower price by 5% see if you get offer.

    If get, market is inching downwards but stable.

    If u you still dont get offer after inching it down by more than 15%.

    Then ... BUBBLED and its BURSTING!! !!!

    Hope the above can help u !

    DKSG
    Stay Calm and Cool (even got bubble)

  22. #22
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    I think we are in the midst of a property bubble, but the government is taking care not to blow it up too much (controlled by the series of small CMs) nor allowing it to deflate too quickly (controlled via GLS reserve price and BTO's valuation). I'm afraid the Sky Habitat is setting a new benchmark and the rest of the market will follow soon.

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    The next project launching next week is the one at Bendemeer. Cannot be higher than this as they have no renowed architect.
    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    I think we are in the midst of a property bubble, but the government is taking care not to blow it up too much (controlled by the series of small CMs) nor allowing it to deflate too quickly (controlled via GLS reserve price and BTO's valuation). I'm afraid the Sky Habitat is setting a new benchmark and the rest of the market will follow soon.

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    The next project launching next week is the one at Bendemeer. Cannot be higher than this as they have no renowed architect.
    It just have to b slightly lower to draw e buyers.

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    If Caspian at Lake Side was remembered as the turning point for a bottom,
    Sky Habitat will be remembered as the turning of a top.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FH99
    If Caspian at Lake Side was remembered as the turning point for a bottom,
    Sky Habitat will be remembered as the turning of a top.
    dont worry FEO will not take it lying down!!!

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by DKSG
    How to spot a bubble ... very simple!

    I believe most people here own properties.

    So it makes the job easy.

    List your property for sale, ask for 5% above last done.
    Tell agent base price is last done.

    Then sit back and wait to see if there is a bubble.

    If you get offer --> market still healthy.
    If you DONT get offer --> lower price by 5% see if you get offer.

    If get, market is inching downwards but stable.

    If u you still dont get offer after inching it down by more than 15%.

    Then ... BUBBLED and its BURSTING!! !!!

    Hope the above can help u !

    DKSG
    Stay Calm and Cool (even got bubble)
    Absolutely INGENIOUS ! Why I never thought of using that !

  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack21trader
    Many people and even highly trained investment anal-lists are clueless about how to identify a property bubble. They tell you, property price crash arh...economy no good arh.. crash crash crash arh is a bubble.

    BUT...do they really know how to identify the first sign of a property bubble?

    The property bubble occurs first when there are suddenly no takers for any asking price. After several rounds of reducing of prices, there are still no takers. Not because that the prices are not attractive, but simply because the demand had already totally left the market.

    This happens very fast, so fast that sometimes, there are still dreamers left pondering in the market asking for sky high prices. In fact, there will still be some dreaming buyers too.

    Eventually, after about 12 months, the realisation will set in and that is where the real bubble will be evident to all. ALL the time, it will be too late liao.


    Good Luck.

    Disclaimers: Not talking about bubble in any specific market or anywhere but just an explanation of the occurrance of a pricing bubble in its emergence. Just My Humble Opinions Only, not an advice for any investment moves.

    神龙股侠。
    you seems to B a new convert.

    if we had been crying that the sky is falling in2010, then most of us would not be staying in modest gain property.

    at end 2011 , I too felt that the prices then was a tad high n the prices should moderate.

    the fact that the key to the reserves was not called for suggest that it is bad but not dooms day bad.

    however, during the last election , many changes has been in place. Adjustment to salary ceiling means more are going ec. Avalance of new bto and land that was bidded with high prices was also quickly sold by people who fear of missing the boat.

    my take is that as long as the land parcel bid prices dun fall, prices will remain high. Its something like a fixed component of a car where coe is a x doallaer value. The build cost is fixed more or less. Labour cost is still going up marginally.

    so how much can the prices moderated. I think the next wave where there are people buying and carefully considering the layout any prices will be the sign of stage 1 of the bubble. Stage 2 will be when price war begin but developer margin still intact. Stage 3 where is starts to burst is where share prices of the developer plunges and there are major loss incurred by developer. That time will be whenwe really start to B coverted as well

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by samuelk
    you seems to B a new convert.

    .......................... That time will be whenwe really start to B coverted as well
    brother samuelk, me no B convert la Am merely explaining the signs of a pre-bubble from my own personal experience. It occurs to me to let the newbies here know the signs after I read an article on property bubbles. Not saying it is going to happen here or not.

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by FH99
    If Caspian at Lake Side was remembered as the turning point for a bottom,
    Sky Habitat will be remembered as the turning of a top.
    Sky Habitat = Bishan 8 part 2

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