I reckon that so. Having said that, I am looking forward to the Aug 2012 relevation.Originally Posted by speculator
Junior
I reckon that so. Having said that, I am looking forward to the Aug 2012 relevation.
Newbie
every recession same story
many kaputz no job no money to service 2 loans end up pitch tent
Junior
What did they (couple) says then?
Newbie
I have no idea. I only can tell you what I hear:
1) USA - Economy is recovering, although slower than people would like it.
2) Europe - The credit crisis is not over, but probably will pass as people get used to it and time heals.
3) China is the biggest unknown, so very difficult to say.
What is your take and analysis on above? Thanks.
Junior
Based on what I can tell. You can double check and confirm. I will share with you on time 1. Shared with you on item 3 already.
Remember, this is based on past history to guide me and then to look out for signs.
1. Typically, when us is down, either Europe or asia is up. When Asia is down, either us or Europe is up. Each continent takes 1 turn to support the economy. The only time which i can recall a simultaneous down is the great depression and 1985 or there abouts. Tis time round, us has been down since 2007. This recession in the us is one of the worst. But the economy is now better and things looks better. Having been down, the economy can only be flat or better. So my current stand is us is recovering.
As for Europe. Time for you to do your homework. It will be good for you. During the subprime period and Lehman, I spend hrs every night reading up on the great depression and understanding ht effects, etc.... Never rely on someone's read of the situation. You need to understand the situation yourself and then engage in the discussion/debate, if not there will be no progression.
D your homework, express your views, be prepared for nasty remarks and start a constructive argument.
Newbie
I m no expert in economics but do allow me to voice my views on this.
My observations are such;
USA
I would say US is nowhere near to recovery or recovering - this is a election year 2012 and same as all other election years they cook up the numbers in order to stay in power. Many jobs were gone for good and will not come back thanks to globalisation. Measures taken were more like to postpone the recession to a later date instead of eradicating the actual issues. And having zero reserves - the next meltdown will be a lot worse. And when they print more money like what they did in 2009, the same 2010 sg property price surge will repeat itself in sg again.
Europe
just SPAIN alone and you can see it's a no bottom hole(20% jobless), the greeks if they are lucky would take them at least a decade enroute to recovery(debt). The Europe problem is going to be a long one.....as long as everyone is still in euros - god knows how long
China
their growth has already slowed down. Though there are rumors of tons of provincial government HIDDEN debts but even if there is a recession, they have heaps of reserves to pump into their economy. Short term recession at most but their commodities suppliers will be in deeper sh*t especially the aussies.
China will be the one who leads the recovery on the next round of recession, forget about USA - iphones and windows alone wont be able to save USA.
Junior
Until the 1970s, amount of currency in our World was limited by the quantity of gold. This is because in pre-70s, the US$ was pegged to the gold value. During that era, there were few advanced economies like Japan or Hong Kong in Asia. As a matter of factly, there were more under developed economies than developed economies. This system place a limit on the advancement of technology and the growth in GDP in general. Because there is only such limited amount of US$ allowed in the global system. If you are discerning enough, you would realise the World did not make much advancement in computer technology until after the 70s. And herein lies the answer to this article I am going to enlighten you.
After the termination of US$ against gold, it means that gold is no longer a form of currency limiter. This gave the Central Banks much power to print paper currency. This is good as it removed the cap or limit on the amount of growth of GDP and also the research on the advancement of technologies. From the 70s till 2008, we saw remarkable progress in GDPs of emerging economies all around the globe. Standard of livings was increasing at a rapid rate in economies like China and India. If ever the US$ was still pegged to gold, this would not have happened. And how so ? Simply because there will not be enough US$ to circulate among these emerging economies. This is the arrival of the New Era: Post Bretton Woods.
The change in China consisted of two types. First, the focus of capital controls changed from “encouraging inflows and discouraging outflows” to “neutral one” first in order to achieve a better balance in the external position.
The increased capital transaction cost from late 2008 through 2009 clearly reflected exchange risks associated with the global financial crisis in the aftermath of the Lehman shock. During the period from 2003 through 2010 as a whole, deviations from the parity for the on-shore market were by and large greater than those for the cross-border market.
The West cannot afford any defaults on their debts and they will never allow it. They may just drag and drag and drag, but they will never press the magic button. Well, they can drag on for a 100 years, yet they will never press the button because of what happened in China (Yuan Dynasty- about 700 years ago ) ,Poland , Hungary, Argentina and the more recent more subduced inflation in Brazil.
First of all,the Americans are decendants from Paris and France is the Most technologically advanced nation on planet Earth.( Bet you did not know that, right? You always thought is USA , right? Now you know you are WRONG! ). If ever anyone in Europe defaulted on their debts, that will bring down the Euro and the whole of EU. ..That is like 70% of the Western Civilisation ! The French will never allow that.. Because in the West, they are the masterminds while the Germans are merely the innovators.
That is why I think the recovery will start in EU once the banks there start to realise their global investment and take back their funds from the global markets. They have been investing aggressively in Asia while the Americans were sleeping after 2008. For your record, Europeans are the largest investors in Singapore... Surprise !
The real leader to recovery in USA will be from Europe...and you heard it here from me first. Meanwhile, no EU recovery, no USA recovery...
So, what is going to happen next? Well, I shall reveal on 9 August 2012.
WOAHAHAHAHAHAHHA
Last edited by blackjack21trader; 23-04-12 at 06:06. Reason: I know what the Central Banks did last Summer.
Junior
Prelude to the BJ21t composition on 9 August 2012:
The World has not seen a depression after Post Bretton Woods. The World is no longer the same place you, me, our fathers, grandfathers used to know.
There is a major transformation in mindset and structural change coming within the next 5 years. Yes, you heard it right. It will be only 5 years before the next major paradigm shift.
This shift will dislodge all who had timed the market incorrectly and leave the borderline middle class way way behind the affluent class. The signs are all there..but no policy makers except a few on our Planet Earth have discerned the coming era and they are now preparing their citizens for it and not telling you or me.
If it ever occurred to your brilliant mind at all, FIAT CURRENCY is here to stay for good.The only difference is that it will be in the form of electrons and photons within the next 5 years.
A shadow economy had already been test running for the last 20 years, and the education system in the West had already prepared their new generation for the emergence of this shadow economy. Conspirarcy theory, you say and laugh at me. Let your ugly brother here tell it in your face: this shadow economy is called ebay, Amazon, Paypal, Visa, Master,Clouds,wifi, 3G, 4G and in many many other names etc..
You still dun get it, do you? Well, let's wait for 9 August 2012.
神龙股侠。
Last edited by blackjack21trader; 23-04-12 at 06:27. Reason: I know what they said during the meeting last Summer.
Junior
Prelude 2: The Paradigm Shift
The following are the seeds of this coming great shift:
1) A whole new generation of higher intellectual class is emerging. For example, I know of this young developer child, who is a heaven sent for the aging developer father. This child when in polytechnic, was already bidding lands against competing uncles and aunties developers in Singapore. The child is so accurate in timing market that a whole group of uncles and aunties secretly followed the bidding.
2) A frightening middle class population expansion in China is coming. This class, we in the know called it the farmers crossland. This class are the kids of the farmers who became rich after selling the farm land back to the Chinese government. They tell you there are many empty apartments in China- think again, who is building these apartments and why are they building it and leaving them empty.
A result of our Internet Age ? I let you be the judge after reading my composition in August. You think I am bullshiting ? Go to some of the land auction and see for yourself.
In 2004, I told of OCR hitting beyond S$1200psf. I was sniggered at.
In 2005, I told of the coming inflation and again I was laughed at.
In 2007, I told of the SGD will be becoming stronger and few believed me.
In 2008, I told of to be careful about facebook and the young moroons and I got kicked in the butt.
In 2009-2010 I disappeared into the Indian forest to meditate.
In 2011, I told of the coming Singapore River and again I was taken as a joker.
In 2012, I told you of the Water Dragon and the Star Alignment and was called a fool.
In 2013, I will be telling you of the coming Great Paradigm Shift and let's see what you will call me.
神龙股侠。
NIL SINE LABORE!
Last edited by blackjack21trader; 23-04-12 at 14:30. Reason: Be careful of the BUBBLE !!
Junior
"As always, before the next shift, the wolves shall be out for the sheeps."- wise words by BJ21T
Junior
check this site
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit...tes/gdp-growth
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit...mployment-rate
US in my opinion is already stabilized. In the event of a drop in economy, QE will begin.
To me, it is about watching out for china and Europe.
One more thing, there is a correlation between sti and property prices. Stocks are 6 month ahead. So to identify burst of bubble, look at sti. Remember, economy tank, stocks tank, retrenchment, sell stock, sell car, sell house.
I really don't see property price to shoot up a lot and that is my view. Why? CM will take place should price spike.
Junior
IMHO....
A lot of write-up on this thread... unfortunately no real insights.... just a lot of hot air.
This statement is ridiculous " So to identify burst of bubble, look at sti. Remember, economy tank, stocks tank, retrenchment, sell stock, sell car, sell house."
If the economy/stocks tank and there is widespread retrenchment.... it is already too damn late to sell your house.
What are you talking about?This is no way to ID a bubble... bcoz when all that you have written has happened.... the bubble has already burst. The whole idea of trying to ID a bubble is pre-empt the burst.
Junior
Haha. Go and ask warren how he identify? Actually basic already told you when? What have you contributed? Tell you honestly, you will be the sat person I tell before it happens.. HahaIMHO....
A lot of write-up on this thread... unfortunately no real insights.... just a lot of hot air.
This statement is ridiculous " So to identify burst of bubble, look at sti. Remember, economy tank, stocks tank, retrenchment, sell stock, sell car, sell house."
If the economy/stocks tank and there is widespread retrenchment.... it is already too damn late to sell your house.
What are you talking about?
Junior
Don't need to tell me anything.... you are passing off rubbish as research and insight anyway.
What have I contributed?... nothing ... so?
Junior
Ok, so you quite/ i mean very blur. Sti tank means burst, right... Blur sotong.... Before sti burst, all aunties and uncles come out to play... Get it, you blur sotong... Or do I need to write in bold... The problem with people like you is you like to be spoon fed. I give up
Junior
More rubbish....
Ok, so you quite/ i mean very blur. Sti tank means burst, right... Blur sotong.... Before sti burst, all aunties and uncles come out to play... Get it, you blur sotong... Or do I need to write in bold... The problem with people like you is you like to be spoon fed. I give up
Junior
psssst! ....tell u guys something...: last weekend hor, the crowds are back in the showrooms...I mean, not those newly launch projects hor...but those already launched sometime liao. I know u are busy quarelling to take notice, so thought I drop by to tell you..BUT i must say, not sure if this is a one off thing or it will last la...so can only confirm much later..shhhhhhhhh...hehehhehehehehehe
Newbie
wah??? no need to get so worked up leh....everyone has their own opinion, maybe right maybe wrong only time can tell.
btw, buffet didnt see 2008 coming....he lost something like 15b.
Junior
are u serious? 15b is 15,000,000,000..let's see....how many zeros...hahahahahhahawah??? no need to get so worked up leh....everyone has their own opinion, maybe right maybe wrong only time can tell.
btw, buffet didnt see 2008 coming....he lost something like 15b.
Junior
I was at a few showrooms there. But, I just couldnt afford it despite call(s) from you that it is going down...
Junior
psssttt... tell u guys something hor...I saw many mediacop artistes in I12 Katong Shopping Mall recently...you guys free can try your luck there too...hehehhehe
Just my 2 cent worth..
Someone mentioned resale market is picking up again.
Junior
Shopping or doing new advertisment for Katong condo?
Newbie
http://www.etfguide.com/research/96/...st-His-Touch?/
http://www.columbiamissourian.com/st...-billions-too/
googled
TCSS
Wow..... bro BJ21, you achieved enlightenment liao.
Why still talking about $$$$
钱乃身外之物。
Junior
aiya...look at resale la many already down 10% liao...help you do this math hor:
new sales price +13% stamp meaning next time the foreigner buyers will sell at least +13% above market.that is, this group are locked 13% above the market anytime they want to sell when market turns around hor. unless they wanna cut loss and sell during recession then nobody can stop them, tiobo ?
resales can easily hitch this +13% ride next time when the economy turns around la.
New sales 0% + 13%= +13%
Resales -10%+13% = +23%
Disclaimers: The calculations are purely my own imagination - please do your own homework and dun blame me for anything. Also next round more new completed units will be competing with older units hor..so choose wisely la !
Last edited by blackjack21trader; 23-04-12 at 21:58. Reason: I know what car Glenda Chong drove last Summer
Junior
Precisely, but you must understand that he is vested. And when it dropped, he pumped in some more. Before 07,I was already quite vested. After 07, I am even more vested. So far out of my entire collection, I only sold 1 unit - Botannia.wah??? no need to get so worked up leh....everyone has their own opinion, maybe right maybe wrong only time can tell.
btw, buffet didnt see 2008 coming....he lost something like 15b.
I wish you guys all the best as I will be too busy posting from tonite onwards. Maybe on and off..... All the best... Moving into us stocks liao....
Junior
I always lim kopi there la....heheheheheh
Junior
Well said ! brother PN. I totally absolutely agree with you hor. Just that I still got loans to repay leh...heheheheheheheWow..... bro BJ21, you achieved enlightenment liao.
Why still talking about $$$$
钱乃身外之物。
Junior
really ? thanks for the info... must go check this out
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