How to id The property bubble

[maisonjai]

I did. Bot in 05, 07, 09, 10, 11

Yr or districts?

[blackjack21trader]

This run up in prices from 2005 was due to afew reason:
1. What comes down will go up. What goes up will come down. 2005 was at lowest point.
2. Economy was doing well.
3. Demand was more than supply.
Check this out. Population in 2005 was 4.265mil and 2011 was 5.183 = 0.918mil. No of resident = 1.146mil. As for the 2005, you will need to find out the figure. You should find tha the number of population outstrips the number of house available.

If you looking at your first home, remember this.
1. When the prices are high, buy hdb... So when the prices drop, your loss is lower. But if the prices go up, at least you are vested.
2. When the prices are low, go for private- because your upside is higher then downside. The only thing you need is job stability, 6month contingency and guts.

Do your homework and you will be more confident with your investments.

My third eye told me this Chestnut is no simple chestnut. The way he is thinking, most likely of a CEO level. How I know? Cause my brain is also so brainy lah.. WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

神龙股侠。

[speculator]

thanks bro for the great advice!!
i will probably go for a resale HDB first to enjoy my entitlement...lol

Good work. Buy HDB. It's Leasehold but treated like Freehold.

When it's old, Govt do SERS.
After SERS you can still get fantastic profit.

E.g. TPY SERS
http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Toa+Pa...+%24894%2C000/

So to all interested buyers out there. PLEASE PLEASE do everyone else a favour. Buy HDB. Stop making this already expensive PC market more expensive.


HDB, you won't go wrong. Leasehold but Freehold treatment. Best of all world.

Hardly pay any property tax too. After all the property tax rebate.
Also get Utility rebate, town council rebate. Perfect purchase. Buy HDB ! Don't hesistate

[chestnut]

Yr or districts?

My first investment was in 1994. What I mentioned was yr.

[chestnut]

My third eye told me this Chestnut is no simple chestnut. The way he is thinking, most likely of a CEO level. How I know? Cause my brain is also so brainy lah.. WOAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

神龙股侠。

Haha. I stay in district 5 and I am a simple man who uses his brain. Really, I found out that the key to success is 90% analyzing. I really want to share with everyone that no one that predict 2 to 5 years from today and stick to it all the way. Things changes along the way and plans need to change as well. Even in e army, we need to do things like hasty deployment.

[blackjack21trader]

Haha. I stay in district 5 and I am a simple man who uses his brain. Really, I found out that the key to success is 90% analyzing. I really want to share with everyone that no one that predict 2 to 5 years from today and stick to it all the way. Things changes along the way and plans need to change as well. Even in e army, we need to do things like hasty deployment.

Simple man can write computer programs meh....WOAHAHAHAHAHAHHA

[jwong71]

This run up in prices from 2005 was due to afew reason:
1. What comes down will go up. What goes up will come down. 2005 was at lowest point.
2. Economy was doing well.
3. Demand was more than supply.
Check this out. Population in 2005 was 4.265mil and 2011 was 5.183 = 0.918mil. No of resident = 1.146mil. As for the 2005, you will need to find out the figure. You should find tha the number of population outstrips the number of house available.

If you looking at your first home, remember this.
1. When the prices are high, buy hdb... So when the prices drop, your loss is lower. But if the prices go up, at least you are vested.
2. When the prices are low, go for private- because your upside is higher then downside. The only thing you need is job stability, 6month contingency and guts.

Do your homework and you will be more confident with your investments.

if prices are high, buy a EC and sell as high as PC in 5yrs time.
if meanwhile prices drip, EC prices drop is minimize.
and pump money to pick PC durians under a company's name..

this way, u vested in a EC looking to sell as PC prices.
And you still buy more PC if prices go low.

[price]

if prices are high, buy a EC and sell as high as PC in 5yrs time.
if meanwhile prices drip, EC prices drop is minimize.
and pump money to pick PC durians under a company's name..

this way, u vested in a EC looking to sell as PC prices.
And you still buy more PC if prices go low.

ThIs is a bad piece of advice... How do u buy EC as and when u like?? This is not property investing. It's just buying a home.

[chestnut]

Very inspiring and thoughtful posts. So what is your take on:
1) Europe crisis - Will it pass as a scare from now on or become full blown in future?
2) USA economy - Will get better or just a blip up only?
3) China economy - Will it crash and bring the world down along with it or will it still grow but at a slower pace (just a scare only)?
2) What is the direction of property prices going forward with respect to resale vs new launch, CCR vs RCR vs OCR?

What is your take? The view will be very subjective but I definitely have a take. I will share a portion of it and wait for yours.

China
Let me ask a simple question on china. When was China's last recession. No country I recall has done such a feat as this. So when will it go into recession? They do not follow the norm and there is no history as reference. But one day it will come down. And when it does, it will be BIG. But china is at its infant stage and not everyone has a tv yet. So bottom line. I really cannot tell when it will fall but when it does, it will be big. And I am always on a look out for signs. Currently, it looks like it is not going to fall.

You tell me your analysis of the rest of the questions. My answers are not always right. Just an analysis to the best of my knowledge. Some other people may know more then me and may contradict my findings, but I will only buy in if there are facts to support it.

[jwong71]

ThIs is a bad piece of advice... How do u buy EC as and when u like?? This is not property investing. It's just buying a home.

for joint singles sibling, married couple to buy EC. safest bet.

what so difficult abt buying a EC.? for those who qualify and if pple wanna buy and play around the system. go explore loopholes. for them to know and for them to find out.


for only singles, refer to chestnut posts: buy a hdb

[chestnut]

thanks for the excellent post, chestnut..

me saving up money for my first home until 2014..
see can hoot any cheaper home to start my family or not..

Roly8. Buying the first home to me has no right or wrong. It depends on your strategy.

Here is my advise from an investment standpoint.

In 2014 if the prices are still all time high.
Get the cheapest flat and the smallest that will accommodate your family without suffering. I believe the date 2014 is because you are getting married then.
Next, continue to save money and wait for a drop in property price. When it drops and ultimately it will drop, go in for your 2nd property which is PC. You can then decide to stay in your PC and rent out your hdb (if you or your family want to enjoy life) or rent out your PC which will allow you to save more because your rental will be higher.
Remember, if you stinge and die early, you will regret not having enjoyed. On the other hand, if yur enjoy like crazy without saving, your biggest fear is living to 80 years old. So strike a balance. As for me, I really stinge during the early years(I was not born with a golden spoon neither did I marry a rich woman) and thank goodness can at least enjoy life now. Whew... If not, regret like shit.
You will need to decide your destiny - 1. enjoyment now, 2. Thrifty now 3. A balance. Only you can decide.

[samuelk]

I did. Bot in 05, 07, 09, 10, 11

I bought in 2001, late 09, n 11.

but din follow thru on location location location. All based on affordability n design of the units.

the one in 01 has mutiple up n down n only about 40% gain.

[chestnut]

Simple man can write computer programs meh....WOAHAHAHAHAHAHHA

Huh? Computer program?
Btw, I really do like your postings.
One of the reasons why I post more frequent now is I actually want to share my views with fellow forummers who have given me some insights into the property market here and there, which I left out. One more thing, never ever believe any one without doing your own homework to verify. Remember, you answer to your own destiny.

[chestnut]

I bought in 2001, late 09, n 11.

but din follow thru on location location location. All based on affordability n design of the units.

the one in 01 has mutiple up n down n only about 40% gain.

Huh? The one bot in 2001 would have doubled easily regardless of location. it is the 09 n 11 that location counts. In the case of location, I am not referring to prime. I Am referring to major/many launches by developers. Example. Guilin is a fantastic project w access to mrt, but prices did not trend like the market because there were no new launches with higher prices. So the references are the caveats recorded in URA at the same time, it is not under the radar of investors.

Say Vision caused the price of blue horizon to go up. Thomson g caused the price of gardens at bishan to go up. Ascentia sky caused the prices of metro to go up, etc......

[price]

for joint singles sibling, married couple to buy EC. safest bet.

what so difficult abt buying a EC.? for those who qualify and if pple wanna buy and play around the system. go explore loopholes. for them to know and for them to find out.


for only singles, refer to chestnut posts: buy a hdb

Can u buy 2 3 ECs?? Indeed there're loopholes etc. But still the mop, renting restrictions etc is not exactly meant for all investors.. How does one with a few property buy another hdb?? How do u buy a hdb at the age of 24 and single?

[chestnut]

Roly8. Buying the first home to me has no right or wrong. It depends on your strategy.

Here is my advise from an investment standpoint.

In 2014 if the prices are still all time high.
Get the cheapest flat and the smallest that will accommodate your family without suffering. I believe the date 2014 is because you are getting married then.
Next, continue to save money and wait for a drop in property price. When it drops and ultimately it will drop, go in for your 2nd property which is PC. You can then decide to stay in your PC and rent out your hdb (if you or your family want to enjoy life) or rent out your PC which will allow you to save more because your rental will be higher.
Remember, if you stinge and die early, you will regret not having enjoyed. On the other hand, if yur enjoy like crazy without saving, your biggest fear is living to 80 years old. So strike a balance. As for me, I really stinge during the early years(I was not born with a golden spoon neither did I marry a rich woman) and thank goodness can at least enjoy life now. Whew... If not, regret like shit.
You will need to decide your destiny - 1. enjoyment now, 2. Thrifty now 3. A balance. Only you can decide.

Roly, if 2014, prices drop and recession is in. Prepare at least 6 month contingency and plunge in. When to plunge in will depend on your comfort feeling and also job security. If fear kicks in, just get a hdb. You will be rewarded either way. Have a plan but be flexible.

[jwong71]

Can u buy 2 3 ECs?? Indeed there're loopholes etc. But still the mop, renting restrictions etc is not exactly meant for all investors.. How does one with a few property buy another hdb?? How do u buy a hdb at the age of 24 and single?

I'm saying to buy a EC and buy PC if cheaper. so my answer is buy 1 EC.

MOP, renting etc.. hdb dont come do checks on EC for illegal rentals. Etc whitewater EC my manager rented out for 5years from the 1st day til he sold it recently.

i didn't mention anything abt one with few property to buy another hdb..

at age 24 and single to buy hdb.. for you to explore.

[price]

I'm saying to buy a EC and buy PC if cheaper. so my answer is buy 1 EC.

MOP, renting etc.. hdb dont come do checks on EC for illegal rentals. Etc whitewater EC my manager rented out for 5years from the 1st day til he sold it recently.

i didn't mention anything abt one with few property to buy another hdb..

at age 24 and single to buy hdb.. for you to explore.

Ya so my point is how is being able to buy one considered an investment?? Just like ur only able to buy one lot of SIA, after that nothing else. Is that an investment?

I explored and didn't find a method

[jwong71]

Ya so my point is how is being able to buy one considered an investment?? Just like ur only able to buy one lot of SIA, after that nothing else. Is that an investment?

I explored and didn't find a method

is owning property assets also part of investment? regardless hdb, EC or PC..?

[price]

is owning property assets also part of investment? regardless hdb, EC or PC..?

Home and property investment is different. U maybe lucky in life to buy your home at a right time. But how do you call one a property investor if all he owns is his own home??


What I'm pointing at is that ur above advise was not for investors.

[House]

is owning property assets also part of investment? regardless hdb, EC or PC..?

1st unit is your home.
2nd and 3rd unit is to generate income when you are retired.
your 4th unit is a investment

[price]

1st unit is your home.
2nd and 3rd unit is to generate income when you are retired.
your 4th unit is a investment

Agreed.

[blackjack21trader]

Huh? Computer program?
Btw, I really do like your postings.
One of the reasons why I post more frequent now is I actually want to share my views with fellow forummers who have given me some insights into the property market here and there, which I left out. One more thing, never ever believe any one without doing your own homework to verify. Remember, you answer to your own destiny.

dun bluff la, you are too humble... my third eye told me you are in the computer industry and someone of a high decision making position hor.maybe VP or MD level.

thanks for liking my posts- not many can appreciate my wisdom hiddened within the posts. Reading my posts is like digging into rubbish to find the 4D paper hiddened within hor-

Me too simply love your post. I can discern that it is someone of a higher intelligence. In fact, what you said just rang a bell in my head and.....I shall reveal them on 9 August 2012.

keep them coming, brother chestnut Your contribution is invaluable.
神龙股侠。

[blackjack21trader]

BTW, my third eye knows exactly what is on the minds of the recent OCR condos buyers. I can read their minds like a story book. And from this story book, I know what exactly are their plans and their next move.

heheheheheheheheheheheh

[blackjack21trader]

And my third eye also told me that if you held any CCR or RCR resale properties- better dun sell them yet. I held 2 in D9 and 1 in D15. Not going to sell them anytime soon.

hehehehehehhehehe

[blackjack21trader]

I let a little hint for you... these buyers bought at a low quantum, no doubt the psf is high. As a result ,they have the holding power although their home incomes maybe around $10K.

[yowetan]

I let a little hint for you... these buyers bought at a low quantum, no doubt the psf is high. As a result ,they have the holding power although their home incomes maybe around $10K.

My household income is 7k+ with 2k+ rental = 10kSGD.

Why am I not buying then? Am I too conservative, aka Kiasi?

[blackjack21trader]

These young people are very smart.... they are more educated and intelligent than any of us CEOs here hor. How I know? well, I happened to overhead one young couple conversation in the showroom...heheheheheheh

[blackjack21trader]

My household income is 7k+ with 2k+ rental = 10kSGD.

Why am I not buying then? Am I too conservative, aka Kiasi?

Nope. You are not kiasi. Reserve your firepower for CCR and RCR panic spiders lor. These uncles and aunties are no match lah... they will be the panic spiders in the next few months.

[speculator]

My household income is 7k+ with 2k+ rental = 10kSGD.

Why am I not buying then? Am I too conservative, aka Kiasi?

household income too low considering prices in todays market