Developers will be leery of bidding aggressively for new land.In addition to the measures above, the IRAS will also levy the ABSD on developers if they fail to sell all the units in a residential project within five years. Developers will thus be more careful about stocking up on land bank unless they are sure they can develop and sell it within that timeframe. Developers are also incentivized to cut prices to move inventory if they are approaching this deadline. As the ABSD is based on land price, the impact is likely to be less significant versus general sentiment and investment interest.
http://www.propwise.sg/additional-bu...2%80%99s-back/
Getty goh's again....go into the link and scroll down...
http://www.propwise.sg/getting-persp...arket-numbers/
Haha, read already like never read. Still doesn't explain whether to buy or not to buy.
It means he also doesn't know what's going on. But still need to publish that regular newsletter so bo bian poop a pile of sh.it to fool readers.Originally Posted by kane
ha ha ....interpretation of Getty's report is the reader's JOB lol ...Originally Posted by kane
Here is my take on the property market as of now.
Those who bought a few years ago are already up on their property purchase. They paid a down payment anywhere from 0% to 20% and would have collected a fair bit on their rental over the past few years. If they have saved, this money will be good for rainy days.
Those who bought recently as investment would have downed 40% as down payment. This group of people have holding power.
The above group have holding power. They would have technically saved for 6 months of contingency in the event of losing their job. So, if the economy tanks for more then 2 quarters,and people start losing their job, you will see major correction only after 6 months. That's why during the Lehman period, there was only a few fire sales and this were snapped up by people with connections with property agents and this sales mainly involved quick cash exchange. I was expecting the recession to last longer then 6 months but it reversed so quickly. Thus I changed tactics and bot in 09.
So, if you guys are looking at a minor recession, like Lehman period, don't expect a big crash across many properties. Only a few fire sales.
1997 was a long recession thus prices continued to drop across many units and likewise for SARs period.
Next, I will bring you guys back in time. In 1988, a colleague of mind sold his semi d in katong for 500k expecting the prices to drop. He rented for many years but the prices crept up all the way to 1996. He bot an apartment in 1995(there abouts). Count the rental he paid. And on top of that, he bought the apartment at a higher price than his semi-d or about that amount. During that time, people were saying, how can a semi d be 1 mil. No way. Today it is 3mil and above. In 1990, lagoon view was going for 270k. Who would have thot that it is worth >1mil today. I remember my friend bought waterside for 800k in 1991. Today it is worth >3mil. Inflation causes the above. Check out coke, bread, noodle price every 10 years from today and compare the price.
There will be ups and downs for sure. You need to identify when the down will be but always review as things changes. Nothing is constant. When recession happens, you have evaluate. If the governments all come together and pump money, do you expect the economy to get better. Like QE. I really did not expect the US government to act as such. When they did, I expected the economy will pick up thus, I had no choice but to change my mindset.
So, there are tell tale signs, but remember, always re-evaluate your position regularly. Don't be stubborn and say the price will always go up. I am looking at 2014 to be a critical point as the fed will review interest rate and Greece next payment is due then. I will also be looking out for signs on a regular basis to realign my position on the economy. No one can predict for sure when the economy will tank and stick to it.
Finally, think about it. The US have pumped so much money, do you think they will make the same mistake they made like the great depression period. During that period, they pumped a lot of money. They thot things were good and they stopped pumping money which resulted in the great depression which lasted 4 years.
Well said.. thumbs up for you
Originally Posted by chestnut
Originally Posted by chestnut
change tactic and reevaluate position is the key. Nicely said
can someone post this in Basic's thread.
brother chestnut ! you certainly deserved to stay in chestnut drive ! You make this so clear and easily grasped. Thanks !Originally Posted by chestnut
Last edited by blackjack21trader; 21-04-12 at 08:18. Reason: I know what car you drive last Summer....
Clear and Concise! Chestnut.Originally Posted by chestnut
thanks for the excellent post, chestnut..
me saving up money for my first home until 2014..
see can hoot any cheaper home to start my family or not..
Last edited by roly8; 21-04-12 at 09:17.
I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)
This run up in prices from 2005 was due to afew reason:Originally Posted by roly8
1. What comes down will go up. What goes up will come down. 2005 was at lowest point.
2. Economy was doing well.
3. Demand was more than supply.
Check this out. Population in 2005 was 4.265mil and 2011 was 5.183 = 0.918mil. No of resident = 1.146mil. As for the 2005, you will need to find out the figure. You should find tha the number of population outstrips the number of house available.
If you looking at your first home, remember this.
1. When the prices are high, buy hdb... So when the prices drop, your loss is lower. But if the prices go up, at least you are vested.
2. When the prices are low, go for private- because your upside is higher then downside. The only thing you need is job stability, 6month contingency and guts.
Do your homework and you will be more confident with your investments.
hindsight is 20/20.Originally Posted by chestnut
based on current situation, people can buy until 2014, that's when US review the rates?
1. US recession started in dec 2007and ended Jun 09.so we should see US doing well. They have already pump inso much money, so if they do see signs of a slow down, they will pump in more money. So US in my opinions out of the equation of a recession.Originally Posted by hopeful
2. Europe is a major concern. Spain's next payment is 2014. The issue is what about spain and the rest of EU. We do not understand it well enough. Just like the subprime and the CDOs.
3. Asia, as of now, the money is flowing into Asia. The question is when it will flow out and to get out before it does.
So if each region takes turn, it should be ok. The timeline of 2014 is critical but you need to watch out for other timeline. You need to watch out for the rest of eu.
Right now, do you see everyone talking about stocks? Aunts, uncle? When retired uncle and aunts start playing shares, bubble is about to burst.... We did not see that.
Tis time, the government CM is tremendous, so the thing stopping the bull run is all the CM. The prices have doubled since 2005. Will it double for the next 6 yrs is anyones guess but my opinion is very, very, very unlikely as the gov will intervene. So I see minimal meat.
thanks bro for the great advice!!Originally Posted by chestnut
i will probably go for a resale HDB first to enjoy my entitlement...lol
I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost quotes (American poet, 1874-1963)
That is very wise. Go for resale HDB, biggest you can find with a good layout and no odd corners etc. Would be useful to get it near intended sch for your (future) kids. BIG resale unit will become a rarity in the future as the HDBs are also shrinking like the pte condos. BIG also means easier to rent out if you need to in the future.Originally Posted by roly8
Fully agree.
The other takeaway from your post, to me at least, is that one should not play the property market with the property you need to sleep in every night. I know too many friends who sold, thinking the prices will drop, but instead lose on (i) rental paid and/or (ii) price increase instead.
Originally Posted by chestnut
Originally Posted by chestnut
Judging from URA data from the most recent Lehman Global Financial Crisis, I don't think there are many with guts.
Most people just empty talk about waiting on the sideline for the right opportunity and Fire Sale.
When it comes, guts shrink.
In a group, the top 10% will be diff from the crowd. The major difference is the brain. Getting data - anyone can get if they try hard enough. But some don't even get there. The biggest challenge is getting the right data to come to a conclusion. Then executing it. Some people will just get data to point them to doomsday. While some will just get data to point them to happy days ahead. Be neither of the above. Get data to show current and future state.Originally Posted by speculator
Just do a survey in this blog and you will know how many bought during the lethman crisis.Originally Posted by speculator
Very inspiring and thoughtful posts. So what is your take on:
1) Europe crisis - Will it pass as a scare from now on or become full blown in future?
2) USA economy - Will get better or just a blip up only?
3) China economy - Will it crash and bring the world down along with it or will it still grow but at a slower pace (just a scare only)?
2) What is the direction of property prices going forward with respect to resale vs new launch, CCR vs RCR vs OCR?
Originally Posted by chestnut
You know how to set up a vote for it? May be include buy 1, 2, 3 or more?
Originally Posted by DC33_2008
To your surprise, many in this forum bought during the 09.Originally Posted by speculator
Will be keen to know how many in this forum bought units in the last one year?Originally Posted by Douk
I will be surprise if many did.Originally Posted by DC33_2008
Originally Posted by roly8
More inclined to accept numbers supported by facts than SurveyOriginally Posted by Douk
Lehman Bro collapsed on September 15, 2008 the next subsequent 1 over year is all doom and gloom news on a daily basis. Nobody know how deep and wide this largest Financial Crisis is going to be.
Using new sale data as a gauge, See Attached URA Data.
I would say not many. These are not hear say but real facts and figures
and comparing against now how many units were sold in March 2012?
Many in this forum bought during 09? Yes I am indeed very surprise.
How many people on the sideline will genuinely have the guts to buy when prices dip big time. Again, I say not many even though many sincerely at this point in time now thought they'll and they can do it.
I did. Bot in 05, 07, 09, 10, 11Originally Posted by Douk
You already back by huge profit to invest in 11.Originally Posted by chestnut
Actually by 1st half of 09, sky has clear up. Though not many expect price to rebounce sharply, it is 60% sure price almost reach bottom. At that time, in the forum, there were some starbuys mentioned in some projects.
When market moves in late 09, i still remember them overjoy with the star purchase.
Originally Posted by speculator