Significant Property News & Discussions

[teddybear]

Don't worry, the drop will accelerate........... Compounded over 3 years will hit >30%?
See, $1M goes up 40% is $1.4M.
Drop 30% from $1.4M is $980k !!!!!!!!!

Drop 0.5%. Index has gone up by 40-50%. Even if drop 2 years at 0.5% per month, there will still be a balance of 30% or so since the crisis. And if you are renting out the unit, that 0.5% drop is not going to hurt you much.

[teddybear]

Very scary indeed to live in HDB flats!!!!!!!!!!!

'Lives could have been lost' as loan sharks set fire to HDB flats

Monday, June 15, 2015 - 08:52
My Paper

Loan sharks are believed to have set fire to the fronts of two HDB flats in Jurong East early on Saturday.

But they might have been after a unit one floor below, which was outfitted with a surveillance camera.

"After the incident, the father of the person targeted by the loan sharks came to me to apologise, saying the debts were owed by a friend of his son, and that his son was only the guarantor," said one of the affected residents, who wanted to be known only as Ms Chen.

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"The father offered to re-paint our door, but since it was badly burnt, I turned him down," added Ms Chen, who was cited by Chinese evening daily Lianhe Wanbao yesterday.

When Wanbao visited the flat of the alleged guarantor on the 11th floor of Block 272 in Toh Guan Road after last Saturday's incident, which happened just past midnight, no one answered the bell.

Wanbao noted a closed-circuit television camera at the front of the flat, which includes two black boxes bearing a police logo.

The camera was apparently installed by the police following earlier reports by the family that it had faced harassment, according to Wanbao.

Recounting the incident, Ms Chen, who is in her 50s, said: "My husband, my son and I were soundly asleep when we were alerted to the fire by our neighbours, who rang our door bell. The whole episode gave me quite a scare."

Ms Chen questioned why her home was targeted when her family had no dealings with them, and why the culprits resorted to fire, as lives could have been lost.

Members of the other targeted household were also asleep when their home's front door, iron gate and other objects - such as some bonsai plants and shoes - placed in the corridor were burnt.

...........................

[thomastansb]

Let's see. I heard this since 2010. 2011 also. 2012 also same. Now 2015, I already collected how many years of rental. LOL.

Don't worry, the drop will accelerate........... Compounded over 3 years will hit >30%?
See, $1M goes up 40% is $1.4M.
Drop 30% from $1.4M is $980k !!!!!!!!!

[highboy]

Let's see. I heard this since 2010. 2011 also. 2012 also same. Now 2015, I already collected how many years of rental. LOL.

Things are different now. Prices are really dropping and I dont think it is anywhere near the climax yet when interest rates are still so pathetic. See whether you can still "LOL" in the next couple of years especially after the US hikes its rates. But if you are not on loan then you should be fine.

[walkthetiger]

Let's see. I heard this since 2010. 2011 also. 2012 also same. Now 2015, I already collected how many years of rental. LOL.

。。。講多晒氣。。you read the market wrongly for entire 5 years

[teddybear]

You heard from who?
Definitely not me!
I told people here to buy in early 2009 till 2012 !!!!!!!!!!!!
Thereafter, I am neutral until 2014, which by then I think the property market is over! Come back next time! People who can't hold until over 2020 better sell now, with the property price still expected to drop much further and interest rate is expected to rise significantly in future!

Let's see. I heard this since 2010. 2011 also. 2012 also same. Now 2015, I already collected how many years of rental. LOL.

[Leeds]

Let's see. I heard this since 2010. 2011 also. 2012 also same. Now 2015, I already collected how many years of rental. LOL.

My view in late 2011 was not to buy (too late to buy for a profit) and in 2012 was to sell for those who could not hold. By 2013, it was not easy to sell with fewer buyers. Property investment is for the long term hence 5 year period is consider short term.

[samuelk]

I supposed it has to take into consideration a few factors

Is this the 2nd or 3rd property.

Is the 2nd property purchase with gains.
Example bought at 1.7mil. Now worth 2.7 mil.

The valuation price of the 3rd property worth .. ?

Even if the interest rate goes up, and the paper value goes down, if the rental returns helps cover the loan, I see no reason to get out of the market till things are clearer.

Now with the 162 cases of MERS and a possible unknown on the economy, it would be interesting to see what other property to buy when the economy goes down.

[thomastansb]

I think we can still afford to LOL when we buy before 2007. 40 years housing loan somemore.

Things are different now. Prices are really dropping and I dont think it is anywhere near the climax yet when interest rates are still so pathetic. See whether you can still "LOL" in the next couple of years especially after the US hikes its rates. But if you are not on loan then you should be fine.

[thomastansb]

So if you buy in 2012, you can only sell in 2016. And now in 2015, you are saying prices suck. Everything is collapsing. Hmm...

You heard from who?
Definitely not me!
I told people here to buy in early 2009 till 2012 !!!!!!!!!!!!
Thereafter, I am neutral until 2014, which by then I think the property market is over! Come back next time! People who can't hold until over 2020 better sell now, with the property price still expected to drop much further and interest rate is expected to rise significantly in future!

[Arcachon]

Durian drop people, wait for it to drop more but don't buy, Durian don't drop people complain.......??????

[Amber Woods]

Durian drop people, wait for it to drop more but don't buy, Durian don't drop people complain.......??????

Some people cherry pick durians when they fall all over the places. Some people pick up durians when they start to fall. Some people wait for the durian to fall and pick them up. Some people wait for days for the durian to fall to get the forbidden fruits. Who are the smarter buyers?

[Leeds]

No one can accurately predict the market because there are too many variables. Base on after the facts, Terrybear was not quite off the mark with his predication. In fact Terrybear was brave enough to reverse his call when the market took a turn unlike many other vested people in this forum still in the denial stage.

Your question to Terrybear is not quite fair in this instance.

So if you buy in 2012, you can only sell in 2016. And now in 2015, you are saying prices suck. Everything is collapsing. Hmm...

You heard from who?
Definitely not me!
I told people here to buy in early 2009 till 2012 !!!!!!!!!!!!
Thereafter, I am neutral until 2014, which by then I think the property market is over! Come back next time! People who can't hold until over 2020 better sell now, with the property price still expected to drop much further and interest rate is expected to rise significantly in future!

[eric3417]

Interest need touch 4% while current rents need drop another 10% before my mortgage exceeds my rental proceeds.
Even when that happens, my rental proceeds minus Off bank interest still pays down good equity.
Prices Up/Down/Crash is just a cyclical cycle. Can tahan can alr.
Standby funds & look long term(10yrs).

[teddybear]

Beware!
Don't try to catch the DURIANs while they are still dropping, and they will definitely drop very much more from now for OCR private properties!
Property prices are just very much sentiment driven! The prices drop will definitely under-shoot by a lot before rebounding!

Durian drop people, wait for it to drop more but don't buy, Durian don't drop people complain.......??????

[teddybear]

You can tahan but there are many out there who cannot tahan.
When next recession comes, and they lose they jobs or their spouse lose their jobs or no rental income, they may have to sell their properties at even bigger loss! Better sell while still have profits!

This time round, don't expect increasing population and increasing number of foreigners and PRs to bail you out because:
1) Singapore's economy slowing and can only grow 2-4% p.a. now (not like previously at 5-8%).
2) government has tightened criteria and difficult to become PRs and foreigners difficult to come to Singapore to work..................
3) PRs can't buy landed any more!

Interest need touch 4% while current rents need drop another 10% before my mortgage exceeds my rental proceeds.
Even when that happens, my rental proceeds minus Off bank interest still pays down good equity.
Prices Up/Down/Crash is just a cyclical cycle. Can tahan can alr.
Standby funds & look long term(10yrs).

[Arcachon]

You can tahan but there are many out there who cannot tahan.
When next recession comes, and they lose they jobs or their spouse lose their jobs or no rental income, they may have to sell their properties at even bigger loss! Better sell while still have profits!

This time round, don't expect increasing population and increasing number of foreigners and PRs to bail you out because:
1) Singapore's economy slowing and can only grow 2-4% p.a. now (not like previously at 5-8%).
Going for 6.9 million.

2) government has tightened criteria and difficult to become PRs and foreigners difficult to come to Singapore to work..................
Still need them, cannot and not cost effective to produce, it take 18 years to know whether the Boy/Girl can make it, some along the way missing in action.

3) PRs can't buy landed any more!

This time round, don't expect increasing population and increasing number of foreigners and PRs to bail you out because:
1) Singapore's economy slowing and can only grow 2-4% p.a. now (not like previously at 5-8%).
Going for 6.9 million.

2) government has tightened criteria and difficult to become PRs and foreigners difficult to come to Singapore to work..................
Still need them, cannot and not cost effective to produce, it take 18 years to know whether the Boy/Girl can make it, some along the way missing in action.

3) PRs can't buy landed any more!
PR still can buy, Billion air instead of million air.

[Werther]

My agent told me some of their clients, couldn't find tenant for their properties are now considering to sell and take some money off the table... Of course, theses old rich bought cheap and willing to sell at some profit, not greedy, just to avoid headache of getting tenant or to spend more $$ to upgrade the property. So more supply will be coming. These are the older sellers, probably in their 60 or 70s years old ..OLD RICH..

[Kelonguni]

My agent told me some of their clients, couldn't find tenant for their properties are now considering to sell and take some money off the table... Of course, theses old rich bought cheap and willing to sell at some profit, not greedy, just to avoid headache of getting tenant or to spend more $$ to upgrade the property. So more supply will be coming. These are the older sellers, probably in their 60 or 70s years old ..OLD RICH..

Old rich with old properties in need of repair and upgrade looking to offload old properties at a decent profit. Ok, got it. Will be on the look out for them. Thanks!

[Werther]

Bro kelonguni

Haha... You got it fast!

These old rich also feel market is peaking Liao.. After all, they have gone through 3-4 crash ...cos rental unit got lots of headache....

[teddybear]

Expect sellings and property price drops to accelerate......
But I would expect OCR to fall more going forward...................

My agent told me some of their clients, couldn't find tenant for their properties are now considering to sell and take some money off the table... Of course, theses old rich bought cheap and willing to sell at some profit, not greedy, just to avoid headache of getting tenant or to spend more $$ to upgrade the property. So more supply will be coming. These are the older sellers, probably in their 60 or 70s years old ..OLD RICH..

[Kelonguni]

Expect sellings and property price drops to accelerate......
But I would expect OCR to fall more going forward...................

I would expect all to fall or hold steady in tandem if current rules do not change. Old ones will tend to suffer more, especially if poorly maintained.

[teddybear]

As expected, OCR private property prices' drop are accelerating (and much more than CCR)................



Private home prices down for 7th straight quarter

SINGAPORE — Private home prices between April and June fell 0.9 per cent, continuing a slide for the seventh running quarter — the longest streak in 13 years.
BY ANGELA TENG - JULY 2
SINGAPORE — Private home prices between April and June fell 0.9 per cent, continuing a slide for the seventh running quarter — the longest streak in 13 years.

The continued decline led analysts to speculate that prices have reached a level for property cooling measures to be reviewed, possibly as early as the end of the year.

The drop in the second quarter was slightly lower than the 1.0 per cent fall in the preceding three months, flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) today (July 1) show.

For non-landed private residential properties, the outside central region (OCR) suffered the greatest slump (1.2 per cent), less than the first quarter’s 1.1 per cent drop. Price movements for properties in the core central region (CCR) and rest of central region (RCR) were less adverse, with both sliding 0.5 per cent, compared to 0.4 per cent and 1.7 per cent, respectively, in January-March.

Mr Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA, said the price dip was in line with expectations as the Government’s cooling measures continue to limit buyers’ ability to make buys.

“This exerts continued downward pressure on prices,” he said, adding that the increasing supply of homes also contributed in pegging back prices. “Though prices seem to be stabilising, we find that the market is facing abundant supply. Developers have yet to clear unsold stock and the rental market for private housing is also trending downwards.”

Analysts said prices have gone low enough and a review of the cooling measures possibly be forthcoming before the year ends.

Mr Desmond Sim, Singapore and South-east Asia head of property firm CBRE Research, said: “The cooling measures are not permanent. We see a possible tweaking of the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) and seller’s stamp duty (SSD) as we have seen enough data points of fallen property prices that reflect a possible review of the measures.”

Propnex Realty chief executive officer Ismail Gafoor added: “What could be reviewed would likely be the ABSD. Foreigners aren’t buying properties as prices are high due to the stamp duties.”

He thinks any tweaks will only be done next year.

In contrast, SLP International executive director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak said revising the ABSD might not drive much impact to the market.

“Even if there is a revision, the ABSD could probably reduce by less than 5 percentage points and the reduction would not be enough to cause any big shifts in price momentum,” he added.

In October last year, Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan had said there was still room for prices to moderate.

“Cooling measures are something we will have to relook sooner or later, but I think now is not the time yet ... Prices have come down, the market is turning into a buyer’s market and sellers now have to be more realistic,” he said at that time.

I would expect all to fall or hold steady in tandem if current rules do not change. Old ones will tend to suffer more, especially if poorly maintained.

Expect sellings and property price drops to accelerate......
But I would expect OCR to fall more going forward...................

[teddybear]

And now the more sobering prediction, and the fall in property price MOSTLY LIKELY be more than 10% over next 2 years as the fall will accelerate................

This is also because "Maintenance of 5 per cent per annum household income growth" assumption made by the report will not become true since Singapore's economy and its GDP is now only growing at anemic 2.x% (and expected to be so for next few years), so how could you expect income growth to be more than double that of GDP growth?

The crash of private property prices can be attributed to:
(1) ABSD+TDSR+SSD (Courtesy of MAS and Ministry of Finance)
(2) Massive Government Land Sales programme (Courtesy of Ministry of National Development)
(3) Significantly fast tightening of foreigners from coming to Singapore /remaining in Singapore to work (Courtesy of Ministry of Manpower).

I wonder whose policies contributed the most to the property price crash?


But expect OCR private property prices to fall much faster and much much more than CCR because of ABSD+TDSR and also because of the massive oversupply coming on stream because of the massive Government Land Sales programme introduced in 2011-2014 which will inject many many units coming on sale in 2015-2017 in the OCR region.....................


Private property prices may fall another 10% in next two years: report
By Kelly Tay, ST
JUN 22, 201510:44 AM

PRIVATE property prices in Singapore could fall a further 10 per cent from current levels over the next two years, said BNP Paribas in a research report on Monday.

"Our central case is for a relatively orderly unwind. Maintenance of 5 per cent per annum household income growth and a two-year period of correction (based on previous property cycles) means that prices need to fall by 10 per cent over the coming two years to lower the price-to-income ratio to 8.5 times.

"Such a decline will push up loan-to-value ratios and force households to inject fresh capital into their mortgages when they attempt to refinance, further constraining private consumption in the coming years," said BNP Paribas, adding that tighter immigration policies have had a "detrimental impact" on demand for housing.
........................................

As expected, OCR private property prices' drop are accelerating (and much more than CCR)................



Private home prices down for 7th straight quarter

SINGAPORE — Private home prices between April and June fell 0.9 per cent, continuing a slide for the seventh running quarter — the longest streak in 13 years.
BY ANGELA TENG - JULY 2
SINGAPORE — Private home prices between April and June fell 0.9 per cent, continuing a slide for the seventh running quarter — the longest streak in 13 years.

The continued decline led analysts to speculate that prices have reached a level for property cooling measures to be reviewed, possibly as early as the end of the year.

The drop in the second quarter was slightly lower than the 1.0 per cent fall in the preceding three months, flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) today (July 1) show.

For non-landed private residential properties, the outside central region (OCR) suffered the greatest slump (1.2 per cent), less than the first quarter’s 1.1 per cent drop. Price movements for properties in the core central region (CCR) and rest of central region (RCR) were less adverse, with both sliding 0.5 per cent, compared to 0.4 per cent and 1.7 per cent, respectively, in January-March.

Mr Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA, said the price dip was in line with expectations as the Government’s cooling measures continue to limit buyers’ ability to make buys.

“This exerts continued downward pressure on prices,” he said, adding that the increasing supply of homes also contributed in pegging back prices. “Though prices seem to be stabilising, we find that the market is facing abundant supply. Developers have yet to clear unsold stock and the rental market for private housing is also trending downwards.”

Analysts said prices have gone low enough and a review of the cooling measures possibly be forthcoming before the year ends.

Mr Desmond Sim, Singapore and South-east Asia head of property firm CBRE Research, said: “The cooling measures are not permanent. We see a possible tweaking of the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) and seller’s stamp duty (SSD) as we have seen enough data points of fallen property prices that reflect a possible review of the measures.”

Propnex Realty chief executive officer Ismail Gafoor added: “What could be reviewed would likely be the ABSD. Foreigners aren’t buying properties as prices are high due to the stamp duties.”

He thinks any tweaks will only be done next year.

In contrast, SLP International executive director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak said revising the ABSD might not drive much impact to the market.

“Even if there is a revision, the ABSD could probably reduce by less than 5 percentage points and the reduction would not be enough to cause any big shifts in price momentum,” he added.

In October last year, Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan had said there was still room for prices to moderate.

“Cooling measures are something we will have to relook sooner or later, but I think now is not the time yet ... Prices have come down, the market is turning into a buyer’s market and sellers now have to be more realistic,” he said at that time.

[teddybear]

What determines property price? :

(1) Supply - Increasing rapidly! Because of massive Gov land sales program from 2011 to 2014......

(2) Demand - Dropping rapidly! Foreigners and locals not coming to buy because of ABSD+TDSR and also foreigners stopped from coming into Singapore to work..........

(3) Jobs and income - Falling/stagnant, Singapore GDP growing at 2.x%, but very unevenly with the top people creaming most of the gain in income............

So, combining all both, property prices are set to crash >20% or even more by end 2017.............


Straits Times: Time to review property cooling measures
Rennie Whang

After years of rocketing values, it has almost become a foregone conclusion that housing prices slip every quarter now. But while headline numbers point to a gradual fall, it's uncertain if the landing will be soft, and regulators should take care they are not boiling a frog alive.

What is clear is that pressure is building. Data on Wednesday shows private home prices were down for the seventh straight quarter, shedding 0.9 per cent in the three months to June 30. Prices are down about 6.7 per cent from the third quarter of 2013.

From a historical perspective, this looks a modest decline. Prices fell a whopping 20 per cent from the second quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2004.

But while price falls in the central region and city fringes seem to have slowed, those in the suburbs, once thought to be more resilient, are falling faster.

This is due to waning support from Housing Board flat upgraders as they deal with falling median prices for their homes. Add in the oversupply, which has been a concern for some time, and you have the makings of a real property downturn.

There are about 24,800 vacant homes across private residences and executive condos - enough for two years of population growth, analysts say. And 22,000 private homes will be completed this year and around 21,000 next year.

Sales volumes have risen as prices decline, although at a moderate pace: Resale transactions of private non-landed homes were up 16.6 per cent from the first quarter, and up 2.7 per cent year on year. Rents have weakened considerably and are down 5.1 per cent from the third quarter of 2013 - in line with tighter immigration policies.

Interest rates have also risen. In a sign of mounting stress on home owners, mortgagee listings continue to rise, with a fair share of mass market flats and shoebox units in the mix - indicating that not only high-end speculators have been hit.

Jobs are at stake, too: About 16 per cent of people employed here are in the real estate or construction industry. Both shed jobs in the first quarter.

As the froth in the residential market dissipates, the cries from property players and buyers to review the cooling measures will grow louder.

[walkthetiger]

I would expect all to fall or hold steady in tandem if current rules do not change. Old ones will tend to suffer more, especially if poorly maintained.

Those who brought decades ago, all of them got it at very low price, most of them would have no outstanding loan by now, they can lower the rental at level u haven't seen before, or even left it vacant if they like too. They will suffer more?

[walkthetiger]

What determines property price? :

(1) Supply - Increasing rapidly! Because of massive Gov land sales program from 2011 to 2014......

(2) Demand - Dropping rapidly! Foreigners and locals not coming to buy because of ABSD+TDSR and also foreigners stopped from coming into Singapore to work..........

(3) Jobs and income - Falling/stagnant, Singapore GDP growing at 2.x%, but very unevenly with the top people creaming most of the gain in income............

So, combining all both, property prices are set to crash >20% or even more by end 2017.............


Straits Times: Time to review property cooling measures
Rennie Whang

After years of rocketing values, it has almost become a foregone conclusion that housing prices slip every quarter now. But while headline numbers point to a gradual fall, it's uncertain if the landing will be soft, and regulators should take care they are not boiling a frog alive.

What is clear is that pressure is building. Data on Wednesday shows private home prices were down for the seventh straight quarter, shedding 0.9 per cent in the three months to June 30. Prices are down about 6.7 per cent from the third quarter of 2013.

From a historical perspective, this looks a modest decline. Prices fell a whopping 20 per cent from the second quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2004.

But while price falls in the central region and city fringes seem to have slowed, those in the suburbs, once thought to be more resilient, are falling faster.

This is due to waning support from Housing Board flat upgraders as they deal with falling median prices for their homes. Add in the oversupply, which has been a concern for some time, and you have the makings of a real property downturn.

There are about 24,800 vacant homes across private residences and executive condos - enough for two years of population growth, analysts say. And 22,000 private homes will be completed this year and around 21,000 next year.

Sales volumes have risen as prices decline, although at a moderate pace: Resale transactions of private non-landed homes were up 16.6 per cent from the first quarter, and up 2.7 per cent year on year. Rents have weakened considerably and are down 5.1 per cent from the third quarter of 2013 - in line with tighter immigration policies.

Interest rates have also risen. In a sign of mounting stress on home owners, mortgagee listings continue to rise, with a fair share of mass market flats and shoebox units in the mix - indicating that not only high-end speculators have been hit.

Jobs are at stake, too: About 16 per cent of people employed here are in the real estate or construction industry. Both shed jobs in the first quarter.

As the froth in the residential market dissipates, the cries from property players and buyers to review the cooling measures will grow louder.

置於死地而後生。

[Kelonguni]

Those who brought decades ago, all of them got it at very low price, most of them would have no outstanding loan by now, they can lower the rental at level u haven't seen before, or even left it vacant if they like too. They will suffer more?

Don't be mistaken. What I mean by they suffer more is relative to current prices. In terms of the specific buying price, they will still gain lots.

As we move forward, I suspect resales to gain favour in terms of the friendlier psf level. Non-optimal space allocation will also be regarded as having more square feet space, for example larger older two bedrooms considered as similar in size to new three bedrooms.

But this can also be misconstrued by some as OCR falling. Even then, this "fall" is very limited in my views. Support will come from additional CPF wage levels plus the rise in incomes over the last two years.

[teddybear]

Regardless, Government / MAS believes OCR private property prices are still seriously over-valued, so a long way to fall from >$1000 psf................

"Still premature" to lift property cooling measures: MAS
Marissa Lee

SINGAPORE - Homeowners hoping for an end to the Government's property cooling measures and a rebound in home valuations must keep waiting.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said Tuesday that the measures - including a total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) framework implemented in June 2013 - are unlikely to go any time soon.

"Property prices have softened somewhat, but like I said last year, in the context of the price increase that occurred - 60 per cent over three years - the softening we've seen is really not all that much," MAS managing director Ravi Menon told a press conference on the release of the central bank's latest annual report.

"So it's still premature to consider removing any of the cooling measures that are in place," he added.

Don't be mistaken. What I mean by they suffer more is relative to current prices. In terms of the specific buying price, they will still gain lots.

As we move forward, I suspect resales to gain favour in terms of the friendlier psf level. Non-optimal space allocation will also be regarded as having more square feet space, for example larger older two bedrooms considered as similar in size to new three bedrooms.

But this can also be misconstrued by some as OCR falling. Even then, this "fall" is very limited in my views. Support will come from additional CPF wage levels plus the rise in incomes over the last two years.

[Kelonguni]

So CCR from 2kpsf fall.

already got example in the other thread.