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Thread: Survey of market participants

  1. #1
    Newbie
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    72

    Default Survey of market participants

    There has been a lot of discussion with regards to whether we are in a property bubble or otherwise. i think an anecdotal way of gauging whether such a condition exist - and this is a very behind the envelope method - is to ask participants to take part in a simple survey. It's not fool proof and some of the questions may be debatable. Remember its not a serious survey (we'll leave that to the dons in NUS/NTU) but answers/replies would be an eye opener to everyone.

    Questions
    ---------
    (1) Do you believe the market is going higher over the next 24 months? If so by how much? If not, how much do you expect it to fall by?
    Answer: Yes/No; by xx% over 2 years

    * replies to this should give us a gauge of market sentiment

    (2) How may properties do you own for investment (apart from the one you reside in)? Do you intend to buy more for investment, if so, how many more?
    Answer: 1; yes, 1

    * replies should give us a gauge of demand

    (3) If prices start to decline and signs/predictions are that property prices will fall by 20% over the next 2 years, would you "cut loss" and reduce your property investments?
    Answer: yes/no

    * roughly a sign of holding power/high leverage/speculation.

    My answer to the above are
    (1) No. 10%
    (2) 1; no
    (3) no

    Hope this will help forumers have a slightly better gauge of what others are thinking and looking to do.

  2. #2
    Investor.
    Guest

    Default Re: Survey of market participants

    Questions
    ----------
    (1) Do you believe the market is going higher over the next 24 months? If so by how much? If not, how much do you expect it to fall by?
    Answer: Yes/No; by xx% over 2 years

    * replies to this should give us a gauge of market sentiment

    (2) How may properties do you own for investment (apart from the one you reside in)? Do you intend to buy more for investment, if so, how many more?
    Answer: 1; yes, 1

    * replies should give us a gauge of demand

    (3) If prices start to decline and signs/predictions are that property prices will fall by 20% over the next 2 years, would you "cut loss" and reduce your property investments?
    Answer: yes/no

    * roughly a sign of holding power/high leverage/speculation.


    Here are my answers:
    (1) Yes. 25% in the next 24 months.
    (2) 4; Yes, 4.
    (3) No.

  3. #3
    Unregistered
    Guest

    Default Re: Survey of market participants

    Quote Originally Posted by Boon
    There has been a lot of discussion with regards to whether we are in a property bubble or otherwise. i think an anecdotal way of gauging whether such a condition exist - and this is a very behind the envelope method - is to ask participants to take part in a simple survey. It's not fool proof and some of the questions may be debatable. Remember its not a serious survey (we'll leave that to the dons in NUS/NTU) but answers/replies would be an eye opener to everyone.

    Questions
    ---------
    (1) Do you believe the market is going higher over the next 24 months? If so by how much? If not, how much do you expect it to fall by?
    Answer: Yes/No; by xx% over 2 years

    * replies to this should give us a gauge of market sentiment

    (2) How may properties do you own for investment (apart from the one you reside in)? Do you intend to buy more for investment, if so, how many more?
    Answer: 1; yes, 1

    * replies should give us a gauge of demand

    (3) If prices start to decline and signs/predictions are that property prices will fall by 20% over the next 2 years, would you "cut loss" and reduce your property investments?
    Answer: yes/no

    * roughly a sign of holding power/high leverage/speculation.

    My answer to the above are
    (1) No. 10%
    (2) 1; no
    (3) no

    Hope this will help forumers have a slightly better gauge of what others are thinking and looking to do.
    The biggest risk factor in Asia in the coming days, months and years is whether the "BIRD FLU" situation will escalate to a highly dangerous situation. The media sort of tiring of talking and reporting news on bird flu and therefore no longer interested to report it as headline news at least. However, if you pay cloase attaention to whatever that is available out there (e.g. website for WHO (world health organization), you should notice that the bird flu situation is getting worse instead better in comparison to a few years ago. What is even more troubling, it seems to affect asia and asian populations more than other countries and races. The rule of game is "do not over-leverage". BIRD FLU outbreak could be far worse than 911 and SARS combined

  4. #4
    Unregistered
    Guest

    Default Re: Survey of market participants

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    The biggest risk factor in Asia in the coming days, months and years is whether the "BIRD FLU" situation will escalate to a highly dangerous situation. The media sort of tiring of talking and reporting news on bird flu and therefore no longer interested to report it as headline news at least. However, if you pay cloase attaention to whatever that is available out there (e.g. website for WHO (world health organization), you should notice that the bird flu situation is getting worse instead better in comparison to a few years ago. What is even more troubling, it seems to affect asia and asian populations more than other countries and races. The rule of game is "do not over-leverage". BIRD FLU outbreak could be far worse than 911 and SARS combined
    The Bird Flu situation in indonesia is getting worse by the day, it was one of the headline news last night in channelnews asia. Even health minster in Singapore was in Indonesia to discuss offering money and expert to indonesia to deal with the problem.

    I agree, it is a very serious risk ahead

  5. #5
    Unregistered
    Guest

    Default Re: Survey of market participants

    Quote Originally Posted by Boon
    There has been a lot of discussion with regards to whether we are in a property bubble or otherwise. i think an anecdotal way of gauging whether such a condition exist - and this is a very behind the envelope method - is to ask participants to take part in a simple survey. It's not fool proof and some of the questions may be debatable. Remember its not a serious survey (we'll leave that to the dons in NUS/NTU) but answers/replies would be an eye opener to everyone.

    Questions
    ---------
    (1) Do you believe the market is going higher over the next 24 months? If so by how much? If not, how much do you expect it to fall by?
    Answer: Yes/No; by xx% over 2 years

    * replies to this should give us a gauge of market sentiment

    (2) How may properties do you own for investment (apart from the one you reside in)? Do you intend to buy more for investment, if so, how many more?
    Answer: 1; yes, 1

    * replies should give us a gauge of demand

    (3) If prices start to decline and signs/predictions are that property prices will fall by 20% over the next 2 years, would you "cut loss" and reduce your property investments?
    Answer: yes/no

    * roughly a sign of holding power/high leverage/speculation.

    My answer to the above are
    (1) No. 10%
    (2) 1; no
    (3) no

    Hope this will help forumers have a slightly better gauge of what others are thinking and looking to do.

    My Survey Datas:

    (1) Yes. Luxury 15%; mid-tier 25%; mass-market 20%
    (2) 1; 1
    (3) no

  6. #6
    oh lord yes
    Guest

    Default Re: Survey of market participants

    1) Yes.

    Luxury: 30% - 50%;
    High end: 30% - 50%
    Mid: 10% - 30%;
    Mass: 15%-20% back down to 5%-10% from current.

    Reasons:

    Luxury - Market trend setter, independent of sentiment (buyers do not need to make money from property, buyers super-high income source come from elsewhere), foreign private equity driven. Investment yield matters little. First and foremost a luxury holiday home that may only be occupied 2 weeks of the year. Size matters more than trivial concerns about $psf. Only the super rich, can be from anywhere in the world. High demand, low supply currently, and even in 2 years time.

    High end - Follow closely on the heels of luxury segment. Main beneficiaries of luxury spillover. $psf asking prices increase by the $100 psf. Mix of local well to do and expat investors. Foreign equity also present here. High demand, low supply, supply may meet demand in 2 years time.

    Mid - Main buyers/investors are upgraders from mass market; as well as downgraders from High End en blocs. Price sensitive but not as price sensitive as mass market buyers. Mostly local well to do and mid-level expats. Supply meets demand, currently. Same in 2 years time.

    Mass Market - Mostly local buyers. Low priced, and also the most price sensitive of the bunch, mainly HDB upgraders and downgraders from Mid End. This is a segment where a $10 psf asking price increment is significant. Will see high levels of speculation if the Govt does not control the market. If Govt controls the market, for example, 20% downpayment instead of the current 10%, will see prices fall back to current levels as supply outstrips demand. To soothe unhappiness of majority Singaporeans (of inability to buy condos at ever-rising prices), Govt will force supply up. Why do you think HDB did away with Executive Condos? In preparation for mass market condos to become more affordable to the average citizen.

    2) 2 for investment; yes; my next one is going to be landed property

    3) Yes, but it is not "cut loss". More like "take less profit". My current margin of safety is around 80% - 100% of my original buy prices.

  7. #7
    Unregistered
    Guest

    Default Re: Survey of market participants

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    My Survey Datas:

    (1) Yes. Luxury 15%; mid-tier 25%; mass-market 20%
    (2) 1; 1
    (3) no
    My answer (assuming no bird flu hitting singapore)
    1. No, 10%
    2. 1, 0
    3. No

  8. #8
    Registered
    Guest

    Default Re: Survey of market participants

    .... but wasted .... all these surveys we did never go to NUS!

  9. #9
    Newbie
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Posts
    72

    Default Re: Survey of market participants

    Quote Originally Posted by oh lord yes
    3) Yes, but it is not "cut loss". More like "take less profit". My current margin of safety is around 80% - 100% of my original buy prices.
    That's much higher than the national average, even from crisis lows. Would you care to share where is this property? Just curious to know what drives this particular property so much higher than the national average.

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