
Originally Posted by
ahlahdin
Monday, May 7, 2007
A lesson worth remembering
The last property bubble burst got many hurt
Letter from Lim Boon Hee
I refer to remarks made by Wall Street legendary investor Jeremy Grantham, who has warned in his latest quarterly letter to clients that it's "bubble time".
He said, after a six-week trip around the world, that we are in the midst of the first truly global bubble.
The last property bull run, followed by many years of depressed property prices when the bubble burst and badly burned many property owners, should be a lesson for buyers and sellers.
The self-reinforcing delusion of the stock and property markets going higher and higher creates a bubble where investors throw caution to the wind and the fear of missing the boat lures many to ask for and pay ridiculous prices, even for HDB flats.
These truths must prevail: What comes up must come down; the higher the climb, the steeper the fall; and all bubbles burst.
HDB owners are greedily asking for $40,000 to $50,000 above valuation, driving valuations higher every quarter.
I believe that with the kind of salaries that average Singaporean earn, such prices are not sustainable and have already peaked.
The supplies of permanent residents as a result of Singapore's open talent policy and en bloc residents are also not infinite.
Therefore, buyers should reject the unrealistic prices demanded by sellers and the latter would do well to rue the day when prices of houses start to plummet rapidly if they do not contain their avarice.
The stock market is already too heavy for its fundamentals.