A few CCR transactions sold at a loss (reported in The Edge)

[walkthetiger]

My comments to your reply:



1) Now, we know that if people insist that the above is true despite us pointing out the fact that this is not true for CCR properties, then I really wonder whether they are trying to mislead readers with such statement and to hide the fact that CCR property prices has crashed!...
The fact is, there is now 2-tier property price trends where in 1-tier the prices have crashed to close to 2009 lows,
while in another tier the price has stayed at >100% above 2009 lows...
So, the person who say this is ignorant of above fact or trying to mislead? Please be honest about this and acknowledge the fact that about the 2-tier pricing trend developing...

(2) Did URA say that developers artificially inflat prices in CCR?
What developers did cannot artificially inflat prices in OCR?
It seem more like what developers did are artificially inflating prices in OCR instead because as we know, past many transactions already showed that CCR prices has crashed >20% and is now near to 2009 lows!
On the other hand, OCR has maintained at >100% above 2009 lows!
For past >1 year, developers are offering ABSD absorption for people who are subjected to ABSD! Developers are going exploiting loophole to go around govt cooling measures! URA not going to do anything about it? If so, why implement such laws? For show?

(3) If I am the govt, I will be very ashamed because my policy has not achieved my aim after 1.5 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What is their aim? It seem to be for property prices to be nearer 2009 lows (according to Mr Khaw).
However, while CCR property prices has crashed >20% and is now near 2009 low within 1.5 years,
OCR property prices has maintained at >100% above 2009 low after previous CM!
So, it is time for the govt to take further targeted action to cool CCR property prices to near 2009 low if that is their aim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If that is NOT their aim, then they must have failed terribly to have caused CCR to crashed!
Whichever way, they seem to have failed because they are the one causing a 2-tier property price trends!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1) About "crash" theory, he says 10% is a crash, yet another says 30% but some say 40%.... Who is right?

2 and 3) My friend, you should know OCR will take longer time to cool off, just like it had taken the developers a longer time to heat those up. There are some dicussions on CPF cap recently, if this true, very soon likely which group is likely affected first.

[Amber Woods]

1) About "crash" theory, he says 10% is a crash, yet another says 30% but some say 40%.... Who is right?

2 and 3) My friend, you should know OCR will take longer time to cool off, just like it had taken the developers a longer time to heat those up. There are some dicussions on CPF cap recently, if this true, very soon likely which group is likely affected first.

Hello Walkthe(Tiger), why not you just leave the Bear alone? Why give him the opportunity to keep repeating himself again and again? Be a smart Tiger!

[catsick]

CCR prices are not close to 2009 lows by any means , decent building in river valley area like Rivergate, Imperial , Cosmopolitan in 2009 were trading in the 1000-1200 psf range which to me was very good value indeed , by 2011 these had risen to 1800-2200 spf range and after cooling measures we are back down to 1700-2000 range , prices are still at least 50% above the lows but are around 10-15% off the high point , if you have a large unit and need to sell then you are going to have to cut the price by a decent amount to get a sale.

The index of prices is misleading for several reasons, the first being that in the 2010-2013 time most of what was being sold was garbage shoebox units at very high psf , so in the same river valley area we have a lot of transactions at 2400-2800 in this time period for these 500 sqft units at the top of river valley road , these now are either not selling or have to be sold much cheaper ,

In doing any comparison it has to be like for like , the index does not do this , we have not had a crash , just a moderation in prices , the sales at a big loss are all big units in new developments bought at crazy prices in 2007 or early 2008 , I think prices will have to fall another 10-15% before the government is relaxed enough to remove cooling measures , and they will do this when all the buyers of the small units far out in the ocr at high prices are all hurting

[teddybear]

Oh no, you must be exaggerating!!!
Ok, throw you the challenge: Find me a transaction since start of 2009 for Rivergate, the lowest you can find (except penthouse units with those big PES areas), that is sold at $1000 psf!

But I get what you mean, it means the OCR private properties, that are 99-years leasehold should be selling at much much lower prices than other River Valley condos like Cosmopolitan which is Freehold and has dropped 10-20% since 2002 !!!

The fact that OCR private properties has barely dropped means that the cooling measures institituted in Jan 2013 are ineffective, loop-sided, causes CCR to crash while OCR maintaining in prices, means there a need for new targeted cooling measures to cool OCR private property prices!!

CCR prices are not close to 2009 lows by any means , decent building in river valley area like Rivergate, Imperial , Cosmopolitan in 2009 were trading in the 1000-1200 psf range which to me was very good value indeed , by 2011 these had risen to 1800-2200 spf range and after cooling measures we are back down to 1700-2000 range , prices are still at least 50% above the lows but are around 10-15% off the high point , if you have a large unit and need to sell then you are going to have to cut the price by a decent amount to get a sale.

The index of prices is misleading for several reasons, the first being that in the 2010-2013 time most of what was being sold was garbage shoebox units at very high psf , so in the same river valley area we have a lot of transactions at 2400-2800 in this time period for these 500 sqft units at the top of river valley road , these now are either not selling or have to be sold much cheaper ,

In doing any comparison it has to be like for like , the index does not do this , we have not had a crash , just a moderation in prices , the sales at a big loss are all big units in new developments bought at crazy prices in 2007 or early 2008 , I think prices will have to fall another 10-15% before the government is relaxed enough to remove cooling measures , and they will do this when all the buyers of the small units far out in the ocr at high prices are all hurting

[teddybear]

Note that Rivergate hit a high of $2330 psf in 2012-2013 before falling to $1766 psf NOW - That is a fall of 24.2% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Which OCR private property, anywhere in Singapore, has fallen more than 10%???

Oh no, you must be exaggerating!!!
Ok, throw you the challenge: Find me a transaction since start of 2009 for Rivergate, the lowest you can find (except penthouse units with those big PES areas), that is sold at $1000 psf!

But I get what you mean, it means the OCR private properties, that are 99-years leasehold should be selling at much much lower prices than other River Valley condos like Cosmopolitan which is Freehold and has dropped 10-20% since 2002 !!!

The fact that OCR private properties has barely dropped means that the cooling measures institituted in Jan 2013 are ineffective, loop-sided, causes CCR to crash while OCR maintaining in prices, means there a need for new targeted cooling measures to cool OCR private property prices!!

CCR prices are not close to 2009 lows by any means , decent building in river valley area like Rivergate, Imperial , Cosmopolitan in 2009 were trading in the 1000-1200 psf range which to me was very good value indeed , by 2011 these had risen to 1800-2200 spf range and after cooling measures we are back down to 1700-2000 range , prices are still at least 50% above the lows but are around 10-15% off the high point , if you have a large unit and need to sell then you are going to have to cut the price by a decent amount to get a sale.

The index of prices is misleading for several reasons, the first being that in the 2010-2013 time most of what was being sold was garbage shoebox units at very high psf , so in the same river valley area we have a lot of transactions at 2400-2800 in this time period for these 500 sqft units at the top of river valley road , these now are either not selling or have to be sold much cheaper ,

In doing any comparison it has to be like for like , the index does not do this , we have not had a crash , just a moderation in prices , the sales at a big loss are all big units in new developments bought at crazy prices in 2007 or early 2008 , I think prices will have to fall another 10-15% before the government is relaxed enough to remove cooling measures , and they will do this when all the buyers of the small units far out in the ocr at high prices are all hurting

[catsick]

I mentioned 3 properties to give a range rivergate tends to be the most expensive of those 3 so is the top of the range , sample transactions would be
RIVERGATE ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 2,053,200 1,711 Strata 1,200 Jun-09
RIVERGATE ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 2,401,200 2,088 Strata 1,150 May-09
RIVERGATE ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 2,380,000 2,077 Strata 1,146 Apr-09
RIVERGATE ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 1,705,000 1,550 Strata 1,100 Dec-08

In the other buildings I mentioned we have transactions such as ...

THE IMPERIAL 1,425,000 1,346 Strata 1,059 Jan-09
THE COSMOPOLITAN 1 1,608,850 1,399 Strata 1,150 Jan-09

There were clearly bargains to be had then that are waaaay lower than what you can achieve now, I bought in one of these buildings in late 2008 at 1300 psf in one of these buildings for a decent unit, and prices were lower by about 200 psf at the worst point , likewise we are well below the high prints of 2012 but nowhere near the 2009 prices, I am waiting to buy again if I can get a good bargain but am in nooo hurry now .

[teddybear]

Ok thanks for the data... Not $1000 psf but close for Rivergate...

When you say "bargain", you may want to put thing in perspective:
E.g. In 2009, OCR like Hougang selling at $4xx psf, now Hougang selling at >$1200 psf! That is an increase of >140% !!! On hindsight, that is what I would call BIG BARGAIN !!!

On the other hand, Rivergate lowest $1100 psf, NOW $1766 psf, so that is 60% increase only!

Since cooling measure is suppose to cool property prices, and since CCR like Rivergate has already dropped 24+% from peak but OCR like Hougang has not even dropped from peak, it is time to calibrate the property cooling measures to be more targeted to cool where it need to be on OCR because they have been ineffective on OCR private properties that has increased the most by >140% and barely dropped!

I mentioned 3 properties to give a range rivergate tends to be the most expensive of those 3 so is the top of the range , sample transactions would be
RIVERGATE ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 2,053,200 1,711 Strata 1,200 Jun-09
RIVERGATE ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 2,401,200 2,088 Strata 1,150 May-09
RIVERGATE ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 2,380,000 2,077 Strata 1,146 Apr-09
RIVERGATE ROBERTSON QUAY Apartment 1 1,705,000 1,550 Strata 1,100 Dec-08

In the other buildings I mentioned we have transactions such as ...

THE IMPERIAL 1,425,000 1,346 Strata 1,059 Jan-09
THE COSMOPOLITAN 1 1,608,850 1,399 Strata 1,150 Jan-09

There were clearly bargains to be had then that are waaaay lower than what you can achieve now, I bought in one of these buildings in late 2008 at 1300 psf in one of these buildings for a decent unit, and prices were lower by about 200 psf at the worst point , likewise we are well below the high prints of 2012 but nowhere near the 2009 prices, I am waiting to buy again if I can get a good bargain but am in nooo hurry now .

[catsick]

Yes the 1200 psf stuff in Hougang is just crazy and is going to cause a lot of pain in the future, when the wall of supply hits those buyers will come to regret ! I am only watching ccr , no interest to live any other place ...

[Yuki]

Actually. .is there a rule that says that ocr prices should be cheaper by xxx% or should be xxx psf etc?

All along I thought its dictated by demand. I.e more demand price goes up?

It seems like demand picked up due to hdb upgraders.

[teddybear]

You made a mistake - Property price is dictated ONLY by "real" AFFORDABILITY aka INCOMEs of the buyers!!!

The so called "demand" you mentioned may be "artificial", e.g. people over-leveraging to buy increases such "artificial demand" which will get clamped down easily...................

So, if you look at the income of the hdb upgraders - Did their income increase >140% from 2009 till now? If not, does it make sense for OCR property prices to increase >140% from 2009 ???

You look at the CCR property prices - You look at the rich people, did their income increase >60% from 2009 till now?

Then, it is obvious which is more "affordable" and hence makes a better and safer buy at current price.................

You should read with deep thought on the lessons to be learnt from below article:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...sia-properties

Cheap in absolute price doesn't means that the property is a great investment and it has the greatest upside potential - Very often, it is the contrary because RICH / POWERFUL / INFLUENTIAL people don't want to be living beside HDB upgraders........................

If anybody will be fried, those who bought JGateway at >$1500 psf sure get FRIED first.........................

Actually. .is there a rule that says that ocr prices should be cheaper by xxx% or should be xxx psf etc?

All along I thought its dictated by demand. I.e more demand price goes up?

It seems like demand picked up due to hdb upgraders.

[walkthetiger]

The so called "demand" you mentioned may be "artificial", e.g. people over-leveraging to buy increases such "artificial demand" which will get clamped down easily.

So, if you look at the income of the hdb upgraders - Did their income increase >140% from 2009 till now? If not, does it make sense for OCR property prices to increase >140% from 2009 ?

Cheap in absolute price doesn't means that the property is a great investment and it has the greatest upside potential [/QUOTE]

Current OCR prices seem unreal..not sustainable

[Yuki]

In other words.. The price increase is mainly by investors? Any statistics?
I m just wondering that's all...just feel that too many factors come into play. It's too simplistic to attribute the phenomenon due to one factor only. Am keen to hear more views..

The so called "demand" you mentioned may be "artificial", e.g. people over-leveraging to buy increases such "artificial demand" which will get clamped down easily.

So, if you look at the income of the hdb upgraders - Did their income increase >140% from 2009 till now? If not, does it make sense for OCR property prices to increase >140% from 2009 ?

Cheap in absolute price doesn't means that the property is a great investment and it has the greatest upside potential

Current OCR prices seem unreal..not sustainable[/QUOTE]

[bargain hunter]

mickey mouse units and 1 bedders in OCR would most likely be bought mostly by investors?

unlikely to be true hdb upgraders (other than singles).

In other words.. The price increase is mainly by investors? Any statistics?
I m just wondering that's all...just feel that too many factors come into play. It's too simplistic to attribute the phenomenon due to one factor only. Am keen to hear more views..




Current OCR prices seem unreal..not sustainable

[/QUOTE]

[Yuki]

Is mm units n 1 bedders the same thing?

Back in 2009, what is the number of mm n 1bedder units?

After 2009, the number of mm m 1 bedders grew by how much? How much impact does it have on the property index? How much distortion?

Any one know?

mickey mouse units and 1 bedders in OCR would most likely be bought mostly by investors?

unlikely to be true hdb upgraders (other than singles).

[/QUOTE]

[bargain hunter]

most MM are 1 and 2 bedders of < 500 sq ft by definition. but i don't think hdb upgraders would be keen to move into < 700 sq ft 2 or 3 bedders with a lot of balconies and a/c ledges included in the area.

other types of 1 bedders of 500+ sq ft in OCR may also be bought more for rental than by hdb upgraders. this boom lasted all the way from 2007 to 2013. will need some MM expert/property consultancy to provide data.

Is mm units n 1 bedders the same thing?

Back in 2009, what is the number of mm n 1bedder units?

After 2009, the number of mm m 1 bedders grew by how much? How much impact does it have on the property index? How much distortion?

Any one know?

[/QUOTE]

[Yuki]

Thanks for the info.

6 years of bloom is certainly long.

Without statistics... Latest updated info
info...it's really hard to know what why and where the market is heading.

Most of the info we get is from 3rd or 4th party...pieced together by people who sees n interpret the data differently depending on their experience and their interests.

The only party which has the most complete picture is the government.

most MM are 1 and 2 bedders of < 500 sq ft by definition. but i don't think hdb upgraders would be keen to move into < 700 sq ft 2 or 3 bedders with a lot of balconies and a/c ledges included in the area.

other types of 1 bedders of 500+ sq ft in OCR may also be bought more for rental than by hdb upgraders. this boom lasted all the way from 2007 to 2013. will need some MM expert/property consultancy to provide data.

[/QUOTE]

[teddybear]

Not necessarily as whatever they have have been released, and some people in there don't even understand "statistics", that is why can say "property prices still 60% above 2009 lows".................... (When in fact, OCR property prices are >140% above 2009 lows !!!)

Thanks for the info.

6 years of bloom is certainly long.

Without statistics... Latest updated info
info...it's really hard to know what why and where the market is heading.

Most of the info we get is from 3rd or 4th party...pieced together by people who sees n interpret the data differently depending on their experience and their interests.

The only party which has the most complete picture is the government.

[/QUOTE]

[dtrax]

Is mm units n 1 bedders the same thing?

Back in 2009, what is the number of mm n 1bedder units?

After 2009, the number of mm m 1 bedders grew by how much? How much impact does it have on the property index? How much distortion?

Any one know?

its very simple, let the the numbers explain everything:

year: total MM(<500sqft) / total non-landed exclude EC / %
=====================================
2009: 896 / 28300 / 3.17%
2010: 2043 / 32860 / 6.17%
2011: 2607/ 28915 / 9.02%
2012: 3059 / 32418 / 9.44%
2013: 2170 / 20844 / 10.41%
2014(to-date): 955 / 9347 / 10.22%
=====================================

[litechaser]

You made a mistake - Property price is dictated ONLY by "real" AFFORDABILITY aka INCOMEs of the buyers!!!

The so called "demand" you mentioned may be "artificial", e.g. people over-leveraging to buy increases such "artificial demand" which will get clamped down easily...................

So, if you look at the income of the hdb upgraders - Did their income increase >140% from 2009 till now? If not, does it make sense for OCR property prices to increase >140% from 2009 ???

You look at the CCR property prices - You look at the rich people, did their income increase >60% from 2009 till now?

Then, it is obvious which is more "affordable" and hence makes a better and safer buy at current price.................

You should read with deep thought on the lessons to be learnt from below article:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...sia-properties

Cheap in absolute price doesn't means that the property is a great investment and it has the greatest upside potential - Very often, it is the contrary because RICH / POWERFUL / INFLUENTIAL people don't want to be living beside HDB upgraders........................

If anybody will be fried, those who bought JGateway at >$1500 psf sure get FRIED first.........................

hi Teddy,

So CCR prices have actually crashed 20% back to 2009 prices instead of increasing ? shocking...how about RCR prices ? Thanks..

[teddybear]

Sorry, can't really say about RCR because I don't track the prices of properties there.............

hi Teddy,

So CCR prices have actually crashed 20% back to 2009 prices instead of increasing ? shocking...how about RCR prices ? Thanks..

[bargain hunter]

Hiap Hoe has successfully cut prices and sold some penthouses/big units:

the 2 Signature at Lewis penthouses:

18 SEP 2014 10 SIGNATURE AT LEWIS 1 LEWIS ROAD #12-01/02 APARTMENT FREEHOLD 6,534sq ft STRATA 1,071psf $7,000,000

and Skyline 360

18 SEP 2014 9 SKYLINE 360 @ ST THOMAS WALK 68 ST. THOMAS WALK #36-01 ETC CONDOMINIUM FREEHOLD 22,238sq ft STRATA 1,574psf $35,000,000

which consists of 5 units.

#31-01, #32-01, #33-01, #34-01 (about 3,939 sq ft each) and #36-01 (6,523 sq ft)

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...le-skyline-360 asking 18xxpsf

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...le-skyline-360 asking 23xxpsf

now, that's what i call a bargain hunter. bulk buy all remaining units at a dare to ask price of 1574psf.

[bargain hunter]

Skyline 360 as a reference:

#35-01
5 APR 12
4,015 SQFT
$2,508 PSF
$10,069,769

and

#30-01
14 JUL 10
3,929 SQFT
$2,141 PSF
$8,413,443

[catsick]

wow that is very interesting so the buyer bought 5 units 4 normal and a double at 7 mio each where the same unit as the 4 smaller ones had traded at 10 mio in 2012
At 1500 psf that is a good deal for a nice building

[teddybear]

From $2508 psf to $1574 psf, that is a drop of 37.2% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wah! Durians dropping!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Skyline 360 as a reference:

#35-01
5 APR 12
4,015 SQFT
$2,508 PSF
$10,069,769

and

#30-01
14 JUL 10
3,929 SQFT
$2,141 PSF
$8,413,443

Hiap Hoe has successfully cut prices and sold some penthouses/big units:

the 2 Signature at Lewis penthouses:

18 SEP 2014 10 SIGNATURE AT LEWIS 1 LEWIS ROAD #12-01/02 APARTMENT FREEHOLD 6,534sq ft STRATA 1,071psf $7,000,000

and Skyline 360

18 SEP 2014 9 SKYLINE 360 @ ST THOMAS WALK 68 ST. THOMAS WALK #36-01 ETC CONDOMINIUM FREEHOLD 22,238sq ft STRATA 1,574psf $35,000,000

which consists of 5 units.

#31-01, #32-01, #33-01, #34-01 (about 3,939 sq ft each) and #36-01 (6,523 sq ft)

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...le-skyline-360 asking 18xxpsf

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...le-skyline-360 asking 23xxpsf

now, that's what i call a bargain hunter. bulk buy all remaining units at a dare to ask price of 1574psf.

[onglai]

From $2508 psf to $1574 psf, that is a drop of 37.2% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wah! Durians dropping!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

if cooling measure is removed especially the stamp duty for foreigners....

[teddybear]

Cooling measures? There is no cooling measures at all for OCR properties because OCR not affected so far after 1 year 9 months! Hooray! Ops, it means Govt cooling measure failed miserably!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

if cooling measure is removed especially the stamp duty for foreigners....

[bargain hunter]

well, the 4 units are not exactly "normal", they are 3939 sq ft. the floors below #30 are actually a 3 bedder of 1733 sq ft and a 4 bedder of 2121 sq ft on each floor. let's assume the penthouse is worth 8m (1m+ for the roof terrace lol). 4 remaining units will be 6.75m each. the price of the approx 4000 sq ft units is > 1700psf. and these are still exceptional sized units.

a low floor 1798 sq ft 3+study unit at Trillium was sold for 1800psf. buyers were also found for a high floor 1722 sq ft 3+study at martin place and a 1733 sq ft 3+study at Cairnhill crest for >1800psf, >3m quantum.

wow that is very interesting so the buyer bought 5 units 4 normal and a double at 7 mio each where the same unit as the 4 smaller ones had traded at 10 mio in 2012
At 1500 psf that is a good deal for a nice building

[Ringo33]

From $2508 psf to $1574 psf, that is a drop of 37.2% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wah! Durians dropping!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wah, teddybear also given up on CCR?

[bargain hunter]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Anno...&FileID=315422

sorry for the wrong information guys. the good deals were non existent. it was just hiap hoe selling to its own subsidiary. i was conned! #%@@%%^

[challenger]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Anno...&FileID=315422

sorry for the wrong information guys. the good deals were non existent. it was just hiap hoe selling to its own subsidiary. i was conned! #%@@%%^

So after selling to own subsidiary, I suppose they can they rent out the unit if unsold after TOP. They will need to pay ABSD right?