A few CCR transactions sold at a loss (reported in The Edge)

[Kelonguni]

Foreigners with suitcases of cash are the smartest ones - they are plainly not going to pay 15% ABSD! So they go else where!

Those foreigners and PRs who no choice must buy in Singapore one many switching to buy OCR private instead of CCR private to save on 15% or so ABSD (they also not stupid!)...

So, likely OCR private properties won't drop...

As to CCR huge drop, it was caused by TDSR to owners (can't refinance when banks jack up interest rates, need cash etc), and ABSD to potential buyers (few buyers because few want to pay ABSD, so buying price must factor in 15% ABSD), so it is no surprise that CCR private resale transactions has dropped about 15-20% because of ABSD! But again, these deals are likely to be few, and restricted to those who need cash and can't refinance............. Only stupid people will sell CCR when it is selling at only 50% premium to those lousy locations OCR..............

Why you didn't see in primary new launch? because got ABSD rebates, furniture rebates, renovation rebates / vouchers mah which is not factored into caveats.................

1. If their suitcases go elsewhere, it's safer for the population in preventing a real bubble from building up. Needs a lot of strength from the Govt to reject suitcases of money.

2. One strategy you have left out is rent and wait. Many rent and wait as well. That helps to support the increasing number of vacant units. It's a good strategic move by MND.

3. Cannot blindly pray to CCR without considering demographics change. Whether these were smart to cash out early, we really can't tell at this juncture. They might end up being really dumb, but who can guarantee there won't be a systemic CCR dip of another 15%? Remember that TDSR is a permanent feature in our system already.

[teddybear]

You make a point that looks very glaringly contradicting to the treatment of govt's policies to businesses like REITs etc?
REITs have no cooling measures! Why?
They can jack up commercial rentals, >100% in 3-5 years! Why? They are causing huge inflation to Singaporeans and as a result basic necessities costs have jacked up by a lot!
Businesses like Olam can jack up debt to equity of >3x ! Why?
Businesses are carrying perpetual shares/bonds as "equities" and share ownership when it is actually debt! Why?
Why businesses have no TDSR?

As a whole, the same also applies to businesses like Olam where:
1) the risks undertaken does not match the risk profile of those mentioned.
2) the risks taken by these large corporate entities greatly increases the systemic risks undertaken by the whole system! Precisely because their heads are so big that they pose very much bigger danger to the country! Will they become too big to fail that they will need tax payers' money to bail out? Already, Temasek already pumped so much money into Olam to help them to reduce their debt/equity ratio!

The same statement could also be applied to real estate agents in a housing boom.

Firstly, the risks undertaken does not match the risk profile of those mentioned.

Secondly, the risks taken by the individual greatly increases the systemic risks undertaken by the whole system - in other words, if the head is not that big, one shouldn't wear that big a helmet. What if the perceived dips (without TDSR) were only the beginning of a heavy downturn?

Thirdly, you might have underestimated the ability of those in the stated professions to save up for a rainy day, especially in the middle-later years of their careers.

From a regulatory standpoint, it makes more sense to discourage them from exhausting all their retirement income. I think TDSR over the long run will ensure that kicks in for all.

[Kelonguni]

You make a point that looks very glaringly contradicting to the treatment of govt's policies to businesses like REITs etc?
REITs have no cooling measures! Why?
They can jack up commercial rentals, >100% in 3-5 years! Why? They are causing huge inflation to Singaporeans and as a result basic necessities costs have jacked up by a lot!
Businesses like Olam can jack up debt to equity of >3x ! Why?
Businesses are carrying perpetual shares/bonds as "equities" and share ownership when it is actually debt! Why?
Why businesses have no TDSR?

As a whole, the same also applies to businesses like Olam where:
1) the risks undertaken does not match the risk profile of those mentioned.
2) the risks taken by these large corporate entities greatly increases the systemic risks undertaken by the whole system! Precisely because their heads are so big that they pose very much bigger danger to the country! Will they become too big to fail that they will need tax payers' money to bail out? Already, Temasek already pumped so much money into Olam to help them to reduce their debt/equity ratio!

Businesses and business owners are inherently designed to take risks and maximise potential gains at the risk of huge losses.

Individuals who have opted for a "safe" career are not.

[august]

From a regulatory standpoint, it makes more sense to discourage them from exhausting all their retirement income. I think TDSR over the long run will ensure that kicks in for all.

I always find it contradictory when the govt talks about discouraging people from exhausting their retirement income while at the same time these same regulators do nothing about ongoing scams like land banking, eco house, and what nots all these years. lol

[Kelonguni]

I always find it contradictory when the govt talks about discouraging people from exhausting their retirement income while at the same time these same regulators do nothing about ongoing scams like land banking, eco house, and what nots all these years. lol

I think many have the misperception that Govt is God.

Any Tom, Dick or Harry can set up company looking good initially but swerving towards the dark side.

Anyway, most of the list above has been clamped down. After clamping down still have an original group affected. Just like the Penny stocks surge earlier this year clamped down by SGX, still will have a group affected.

No choice, just have to be consider risks when we take up investments.

As long as overall policy intentions protect the majority, it is fine even if some lose, although it is very frustrating to be in the losing out group.

[Maxim1]

Businesses and business owners are inherently designed to take risks and maximise potential gains at the risk of huge losses.

Individuals who have opted for a "safe" career are not.

Why should middle class civil servants not aspire to live in CCR? For one thing, District 10 has many of the best schools in Singapore, unless you believe "every school is a good school"...

It is precisely people with iron rice bowls who should take the most risks, especially when young, otherwise they will forever be stuck in their position. Certainly not a disaster of course, but that means it's much harder to be "upwardly mobile" now with a normal job.

[august]

I think many have the misperception that Govt is God.

Any Tom, Dick or Harry can set up company looking good initially but swerving towards the dark side.

Anyway, most of the list above has been clamped down. After clamping down still have an original group affected. Just like the Penny stocks surge earlier this year clamped down by SGX, still will have a group affected.

No choice, just have to be consider risks when we take up investments.

As long as overall policy intentions protect the majority, it is fine even if some lose, although it is very frustrating to be in the losing out group.

No one expects the govt to be god. However some walking the talk and less double-talk would do them more justice.

[bargain hunter]

Orchard Residences

Sold 18 AUG 2014 238 ORCHARD BOULEVARD #37-06 1,808sq ft 3,097psf
Bought 5 JUN 2009 3,549psf

lost 1m selling at 5.6m.

[bargain hunter]

Huge variation in Rivergate's prices:

#31-03 1507 sq ft 2309psf
#05-03 1528 sq ft 1766psf

is the view worth 780k?

[bargain hunter]

#31-03 is the highest psf ever recorded for a 3 bedder.
and
#05-03's 1766psf is the lowest since aug 2010.

[Werther]

Orchard Residences

Sold 18 AUG 2014 238 ORCHARD BOULEVARD #37-06 1,808sq ft 3,097psf
Bought 5 JUN 2009 3,549psf

lost 1m selling at 5.6m.

wa, this one jialat, bought in 2009 also lose so much....

thanks for updating.

[Werther]

Huge variation in Rivergate's prices:

#31-03 1507 sq ft 2309psf
#05-03 1528 sq ft 1766psf

is the view worth 780k?

maybe the time of purchase mattered?

[bargain hunter]

similar time of purchase in 2007. about 16xxpsf for the high floor one and 1480psf for the #05 one.

maybe the time of purchase mattered?

[bargain hunter]

The Azure

Sold 19 AUG 2014 201 OCEAN DRIVE #04-10 1,765sq ft 1,671psf
Bought 9 APR 2012 1,869psf

cut loss also must pay SSD?

[Werther]

The Azure

Sold 19 AUG 2014 201 OCEAN DRIVE #04-10 1,765sq ft 1,671psf
Bought 9 APR 2012 1,869psf

cut loss also must pay SSD?

azure, fronting the sea is nice. when i was looking at it few years ago, (i no budget) it was like $3.4M... drop 500K...i think the maintenance fee is the killer.

[Kelonguni]

Why should middle class civil servants not aspire to live in CCR? For one thing, District 10 has many of the best schools in Singapore, unless you believe "every school is a good school"...

It is precisely people with iron rice bowls who should take the most risks, especially when young, otherwise they will forever be stuck in their position. Certainly not a disaster of course, but that means it's much harder to be "upwardly mobile" now with a normal job.

And sacrifice hugely on space? Loan max and work till retirement just to pay off the loan? Many other perceived drawbacks that might not be fair or appropriate to mention here as well...

What's bad about allowing the best civil servants do what they do best? Why must they "upgrade" their location so as not to be stuck in their job position?

There are many ways of being "upwardly mobile". I don't think there is a fixed formula honestly, and relocating home in the most central location to me certainly isn't part of that equation.

[amk]

u r talking about cash flow hurdles? ie between paying absd and getting the rebate after they sell their original homes?

people who upgrade but sell their current homes do get a absd rebate right?

yes cash flow problem; plus, there is no guarantee you can sell your house within 6 months.

[teddybear]

This smack of double standard to me...........
So individuals cannot take risk according to govt so there is TDSR but businesses have no TDSR-equivalent and so are allowed to do take huge risk (and hence the banks too) with no little to no assets to back up the loans?

Businesses and business owners are inherently designed to take risks and maximise potential gains at the risk of huge losses.

Individuals who have opted for a "safe" career are not.

[teddybear]

And those banks with bank-tellers selling structured "deposits", "minibonds", ELNs, those touting gold investments, Ostrich farms, Olive farms, companies that are empty shells and those with doctored financial statements being allowed to list and their top management comitting fraud and then running away with company's money and not taken to task....................

I always find it contradictory when the govt talks about discouraging people from exhausting their retirement income while at the same time these same regulators do nothing about ongoing scams like land banking, eco house, and what nots all these years. lol

[teddybear]

CPF and CPF min sum is not like acting to be god?

I think many have the misperception that Govt is God.

Any Tom, Dick or Harry can set up company looking good initially but swerving towards the dark side.

Anyway, most of the list above has been clamped down. After clamping down still have an original group affected. Just like the Penny stocks surge earlier this year clamped down by SGX, still will have a group affected.

No choice, just have to be consider risks when we take up investments.

As long as overall policy intentions protect the majority, it is fine even if some lose, although it is very frustrating to be in the losing out group.

[teddybear]

Easy for them to say no effect because can claim back ABSD blah blah blah....... But cash flow problem is the killer especially if can't sell the house within 6 months! Why not they allow them to pay the ABSD only after they sold their house instead of having to pay first and then later claiming rebate?

yes cash flow problem; plus, there is no guarantee you can sell your house within 6 months.

Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
u r talking about cash flow hurdles? ie between paying absd and getting the rebate after they sell their original homes?

people who upgrade but sell their current homes do get a absd rebate right?

[newbie11]

Reflections

Sold 7 AUG 2014 25 KEPPEL BAY VIEW #09-78 840sq ft 1,465psf
Bought 6 JUN 2013 1,548psf

pay SSD until face green green?!

Heard it's part purchase

[Kelonguni]

CPF and CPF min sum is not like acting to be god?

We can continue to disagree whether these are considered acts of God, but it doesn’t detract from the fact that even acting like God does not make one God.

[catsick]

A mid floor unit at ardmore park just traded at 7.75 million , all the 500+ units here apart from penthouse are exactly the same layout so it is very easy to compare prices, this is a multi year low , only 2 sales now in 2014 and last year 2 units traded at 10.5 million , this is a big big fall at the top end of the market ! May not be a loss for the seller but he has lost 2 million for sure by not selling last year !

[bargain hunter]

i thought this has been quite common since last year?

[bargain hunter]

the recent trend has been more of the very low cost, multi year holders taking profit as well. they are willing to sell at discount to market as they still make decent profits.

[bargain hunter]

in the current market, some observations:

1) sentosa condos, we have seen 2 units which were sold around 2700psf and sold for 1400psf, almost 50% down. feels like this area has been de-rated out of investors' radar. so let's not discuss this further, unless there are any bro/sis who are keen to buy there.
2) the peaked at 3600psf ardmore park as catsick had pointed out, 1 unit has transacted at 26xxpsf. 1000psf off is between 25 to 30% off. however, we need to consider that some units have better views (for now). so for this highest luxury end (but old), in the current market, good buys are at around 25% off peak.
3) the widely discussed grange infinite. ARA fund bought at 2600psf and sold at 2100psf. 20% discount.
4) as we move even further down in both psf and quantum, we have seen that developers have been able to move stock at 10 to 15% discounts. similarly so for resales. e.g. tribeca (there is some discussion in that thread), a 13% discount off the peak for a similar unit. So i'd say, for units around 2000psf, good buys mean buying at 15% off the peak for a similar sized but superior unit.

[safetyfirst]

in the current market, some observations:

1) sentosa condos, we have seen 2 units which were sold around 2700psf and sold for 1400psf, almost 50% down. feels like this area has been de-rated out of investors' radar. so let's not discuss this further, unless there are any bro/sis who are keen to buy there.
2) the peaked at 3600psf ardmore park as catsick had pointed out, 1 unit has transacted at 26xxpsf. 1000psf off is between 25 to 30% off. however, we need to consider that some units have better views (for now). so for this highest luxury end (but old), in the current market, good buys are at around 25% off peak.
3) the widely discussed grange infinite. ARA fund bought at 2600psf and sold at 2100psf. 20% discount.
4) as we move even further down in both psf and quantum, we have seen that developers have been able to move stock at 10 to 15% discounts. similarly so for resales. e.g. tribeca (there is some discussion in that thread), a 13% discount off the peak for a similar unit. So i'd say, for units around 2000psf, good buys mean buying at 15% off the peak for a similar sized but superior unit.

Thanks for the observation.

To understand your pt 4 correctly, which is the deciding point, ard 2k psf or 10 to 15% discount off the asking price. Reason for asking being that some highly priced projects are asking 3k psf and above and a 15% discount may mean that psf is still ard high 2k plus psf.

[Werther]

A mid floor unit at ardmore park just traded at 7.75 million , all the 500+ units here apart from penthouse are exactly the same layout so it is very easy to compare prices, this is a multi year low , only 2 sales now in 2014 and last year 2 units traded at 10.5 million , this is a big big fall at the top end of the market ! May not be a loss for the seller but he has lost 2 million for sure by not selling last year !

Drop quite a lot compared to last time....back to 2009 pricing.

Now got $$ can buy but if need to pay ABSD, bo hwa leh.

[smellyfish]

Have the @2 million plus in district 9, 10 start to move downwards meaningfully?