A few CCR transactions sold at a loss (reported in The Edge)

[Kelonguni]

If TDSR remains I am sure 30 years later will still be the same.

Will explain to you again 30 years later. Mine is mixed FH and LH though I can confidence in them all.

My theory has been working perfectly fine over the long term (since my properties are bought for long-term and not for speculation and flipping)..........

You wait for 30 years and you will know whether your 99-years leasehold OCR properties got long term holding value.............

But then again, I would expect that you would have flipped your 99-years leasehold properties to the next greater fool (so you are also not affected)........

[teddybear]

Anyway, I would expect anybody holding 99-years Leasehold properties to say they have confidence in holding them.............
After all, if they don't say so and start telling people that 99-years leasehold properties will drop in value significantly after 20 years of lease, who will become their next greater fool to flip and take over they baby when it becomes a burden?
Understand anyway..........

If TDSR remains I am sure 30 years later will still be the same.

Will explain to you again 30 years later. Mine is mixed FH and LH though I can confidence in them all.

[stalingrad]

Anyway, I would expect anybody holding 99-years Leasehold properties to say they have confidence in holding them.............
After all, if they don't say so and start telling people that 99-years leasehold properties will drop in value significantly after 20 years of lease, who will become their next greater fool to flip and take over they baby when it becomes a burden?
Understand anyway..........

Teddy, don't get aggressive when stymied. I told you that CCR homes were going to drop like bird poop 8 years ago. And all I got from you was ridicule and insults. You have never changed even after you have been proven wrong about CCR properties. The secret to being successful in life is to be adaptable and willing to learn from those smarter than you. I hope you take that advice from me.

[Leeds]

Teddy, don't get aggressive when stymied. I told you that CCR homes were going to drop like bird poop 8 years ago. And all I got from you was ridicule and insults. You have never changed even after you have been proven wrong about CCR properties. The secret to being successful in life is to be adaptable and willing to learn from those smarter than you. I hope you take that advice from me.

Teddy has been consistent throughout the years in this forum. He probably misread the market in late 2011 and 2012 when I suggested investors holding multiples properties to offload some and took profits because prices would correct either through a black swam or through government's intervention. He was dead against me and even called me names. However, since 2013, Teddy has made U-turn in his calls. His assessment of the market is largely based on his experience and his working knowledge of the government. Teddy's ability to make U-turn call is respectable unlike many vested individuals who are here to "protect" their own interests. In this regard, Teddy is honest and sincere.

[pmet]

Teddy has been consistent throughout the years in this forum. He probably misread the market in late 2011 and 2012 when I suggested investors holding multiples properties to offload some and took profits because prices would correct either through a black swam or through government's intervention. He was dead against me and even called me names. However, since 2013, Teddy has made U-turn in his calls. His assessment of the market is largely based on his experience and his working knowledge of the government. Teddy's ability to make U-turn call is respectable unlike many vested individuals who are here to "protect" their own interests. In this regard, Teddy is honest and sincere.

Have I been consistent too to also deserve that little respect?

[Leeds]

Have I been consistent too to also deserve that little respect?

As long as you are polite and respectful to others in this forum, you would have already earned the respect even if your views differ greatly from others.

[Kelonguni]

Teddy has been consistent throughout the years in this forum. He probably misread the market in late 2011 and 2012 when I suggested investors holding multiples properties to offload some and took profits because prices would correct either through a black swam or through government's intervention. He was dead against me and even called me names. However, since 2013, Teddy has made U-turn in his calls. His assessment of the market is largely based on his experience and his working knowledge of the government. Teddy's ability to make U-turn call is respectable unlike many vested individuals who are here to "protect" their own interests. In this regard, Teddy is honest and sincere.

Actually it's based on theory knowledge combined with ground assessment. I don't see how participating in an open forum protects interests. I say what I think and feel and many too. What is posted here is unlikely to influence the market. Or do you think it will?

[Kelonguni]

OK I will also be consistent and tell you the same thing in 30 years.

Unlike ABSD, TDSR is a permanent feature. Unless income growth were as spectacular as they were in the last 20 years, we are unlikely to see a huge spike in high end property value (CCR) when combined with decentralisation efforts. But of course they have already dropped significantly and represents value for people who want to buy them for certain reasons.

Anyway, I would expect anybody holding 99-years Leasehold properties to say they have confidence in holding them.............
After all, if they don't say so and start telling people that 99-years leasehold properties will drop in value significantly after 20 years of lease, who will become their next greater fool to flip and take over they baby when it becomes a burden?
Understand anyway..........

[Kelonguni]

In this regard, Teddy is honest and sincere.

In most other regards, he actually is not.

He is well known for misrepresenting facts and misinterpreting trends just to support his intended "interests". Like that you also "trust" in him?

[Citizen]

In most other regards, he actually is not.

He is well known for misrepresenting facts and misinterpreting trends just to support his intended "interests". Like that you also "trust" in him?

Totally agreed, no doubt I MTB but I still accept facts, no point mislead and argue over and over again. When I first join the forum I thought I could learn something but in fact I got mislead and not everyone willing to share true facts and info. I only salute to those who are sincere and truthful. Everyone have their own views but have to be sincere and truthful. Please don't give up providing info and opinion because of these few black sheep. Thanks

[Leeds]

Actually it's based on theory knowledge combined with ground assessment. I don't see how participating in an open forum protects interests. I say what I think and feel and many too. What is posted here is unlikely to influence the market. Or do you think it will?

Anyway, I would expect anybody holding 99-years Leasehold properties to say they have confidence in holding them.............
After all, if they don't say so and start telling people that 99-years leasehold properties will drop in value significantly after 20 years of lease, who will become their next greater fool to flip and take over they baby when it becomes a burden?
Understand anyway..........

Teddy had answered your question, I hope......................

Ask any developer or property consultant and they will remain positive because they need to show confidence in the market so that some people will still buy.

Ask any agent and he will tell you anytime is a good time to buy and sell because he takes a cut for every deal.

Ask any investor or speculator who are stuck with their properties and they will tell you the market is likely to take off once ABSD is removed even though deep inside they may be very unsure themselves.

It is only human for people to behave this way.

Aren't you aware that any active forum has many agents, speculators and possibly contributors paid by developers to do just that? Look at the various public forums during GE 2015. There were many keyboard warriors trying to influence the outcome of the results by doing each other. The social media is an important tool to any marketer or politician to succeed in today's environment.

[Kelonguni]

Brother Leeds, since you mistrust the forum so much, why do you still visit?

We are here to exchange info and to verify it against our own observations. At least for me.

The market is so big, what's the function in advertising for any property when there is not 1c to be earned (people who are interested can still buy from their own agents and/or developers)?

And for this forum, it's not even regulated strictly. People get by posting anything.

If there is a good logic and presentation, we will read it and assess it accordingly.

My experience with properties has so far still been very positive in relation to stocks despite the downturn. Lower the asking price (for rent) and rented out in 1 month. Mortgage covered with profit and do not see any reason to sell. Market movements did not and do not influence my decisions. Which property did I try to sell?

Or would you rather I pretend the market is dying despite my own experience noting that this is a bad year that everyone claims?

I have adjusted some of my thinking over the years but always articulate myself based on the prevailing facts and situations.

Teddy had answered your question, I hope......................

Ask any developer or property consultant and they will remain positive because they need to show confidence in the market so that some people will still buy.

Ask any agent and he will tell you anytime is a good time to buy and sell because he takes a cut for every deal.

Ask any investor or speculator who are stuck with their properties and they will tell you the market is likely to take off once ABSD is removed even though deep inside they may be very unsure themselves.

It is only human for people to behave this way.

Aren't you aware that any active forum has many agents, speculators and possibly contributors paid by developers to do just that? Look at the various public forums during GE 2015. There were many keyboard warriors trying to influence the outcome of the results by doing each other. The social media is an important tool to any marketer or politician to succeed in today's environment.

[Leeds]

In most other regards, he actually is not.

He is well known for misrepresenting facts and misinterpreting trends just to support his intended "interests". Like that you also "trust" in him?

I said Teddy is honest and sincere based on what he said and his belief. I did not say that I trust him.

A person can be sincere and honest even though he may be ignorant or lack of wisdom.

I never trust anyone in any public form.

[Leeds]

Brother Leeds, since you mistrust the forum so much, why do you still visit?

I have adjusted some of my thinking over the years but always articulate myself based on the prevailing facts and situations.

A forum is like a community where you need to mix with people to understand the ground and have a feel of the community and the people at large.

Glad that you have adjusted your thinking over the years.

"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." - Plato

[Kelonguni]

I am glad to learn some technical knowledge from you and corrected some of my misunderstandings.

My adjustment in thinking grew from initially a concern over costs of property holding to the stability and sustainability in the property game implicitly set up for all. This is especially after the Govt has tamed prices and wages have grown over the last few years for the people I know. It might not be in line with anyone's views but I think the current ground is going to stay for some time. It's going to be super stable and resilient going forward based on who I know have entered the market (top performers in my institution and my friends who are top in theirs). These people are not speculators and they have mostly moved in.

I don't know many who are renting out. So maybe they could also share their CCR or non-CCR experiences if they wish.

A forum is like a community where you need to mix with people to understand the ground and have a feel of the community and the people at large.

Glad that you have adjusted your thinking over the years.

"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers." - Plato

[teddybear]

stalingrad,
You are trying to teach us the "secret to being successful in life"?

Very funny indeed!
Isn't the results of being "successful in life" is when you can stay put in a familiar place and still enjoy life and smell the roses and take life easy???
And, Don't have to migrate around like a nomad (like you)..................

Looks like you are still far from being "successful", so how to teach others the "secret of being successful"??? Ironic isn't it?

Teddy, don't get aggressive when stymied. I told you that CCR homes were going to drop like bird poop 8 years ago. And all I got from you was ridicule and insults. You have never changed even after you have been proven wrong about CCR properties. The secret to being successful in life is to be adaptable and willing to learn from those smarter than you. I hope you take that advice from me.

[teddybear]

Talk about being skewed in opinions and trying to manipulate data and presenting half-truths for self-serving interests........... funny indeed!

It is basic knowledge that people who live in OCR are general wage earners, who earn median incomes.
It is also a fact that their incomes are unlikely to grow much now that Singapore's economy has slowed significantly...
We know the average median income salary is only about $8k pm.
How many people in the OCR actually can easily afford a $1.5m 3bedroom private properties in OCR?

Didn't Khaw Boon Wan said that any property more than 4x annual income is unfordable?
So, let's see, $8k x 12 x 4 = S$384k.
that is what a general median income family can afford - S$384k, can only buy a 4-room HDB flat, not even ECs, let alone OCR private condos now going for >$1200 psf or about $1.44m for a 3-bedroom unit of about 1200 sqft.

Even if you take the top 80th-%, their household income is only $15k pm, 4x annual income means = $15k x 12 x 4 = $720k, yes, that is it!
OCR folks mostly can only afford a property at $720k or less!
So you think OCR private properties got a lot of room to rise?
Where these people will get their money from to pay for their monthly instalments???

FACT: The data and statistics we see don't justify current OCR private property prices!

You want to talk about CCR?
Simple, the top 1% household easily earn $Millions a year.
Even we take 4x annual income they can easily afford probably >$8m property.
Lots of CCR properties <$8m, so CCR property prices has MUCH MORE ROOM to rise than OCR because the CCR folks can easily afford to pay more than OCR folk!

Obviously some will argue 4x annual income shouldn't apply to private properties! Ok ok, fine, what ratio you want to use?
Ok ok, let's use 8x annual income can?

If 8x, then OCR folks can only afford < $1.44M properties!
(and that is about current transacted price of a 1200 sqft OCR private property)....

Now if 8x, then CCR folks only afford <$16M properties!
Wow! Lots of properties in CCR are <$3M for a 1200 sqft, so looks like lots of opportunities for upside isn't it???

Who can easily afford to pay more for property prices?
OCR folks or CCR folks when OCR and CCR property price rises????
No brainer!!!

Simple theory you also cannot understand or you are still trying to propagate your own self-intersts?

OK I will also be consistent and tell you the same thing in 30 years.

Unlike ABSD, TDSR is a permanent feature. Unless income growth were as spectacular as they were in the last 20 years, we are unlikely to see a huge spike in high end property value (CCR) when combined with decentralisation efforts. But of course they have already dropped significantly and represents value for people who want to buy them for certain reasons.

[Leeds]

I am glad to learn some technical knowledge from you and corrected some of my misunderstandings.

My adjustment in thinking grew from initially a concern over costs of property holding to the stability and sustainability in the property game implicitly set up for all. This is especially after the Govt has tamed prices and wages have grown over the last few years for the people I know. It might not be in line with anyone's views but I think the current ground is going to stay for some time. It's going to be super stable and resilient going forward based on who I know have entered the market (top performers in my institution and my friends who are top in theirs). These people are not speculators and they have mostly moved in.

I don't know many who are renting out. So maybe they could also share their CCR or non-CCR experiences if they wish.

Remember! A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers.

So buying decisions should not depend on the number of your well respected friends who had bought recently. Nor should it depends on your assessment of what the property prices should be with respect to the rising income (despite knowing that property prices have risen far more than real income since 2009).

If you are investing in the US, it may be easier because the US state of economy depends largely on internal consumption and less affected by external environment.

For Singapore, property investment is much more complex. Our domestic demand is too small to influence the economy and we are highly affected by external factors. We have also exhausted all easy means to grow our economy such as the influx of foreigners and cheap labour.

For investors investing in Singapore's property, we need to look at both the local and global factors and the government's policies especially towards wealth re-distributions. From a social economic perspective, property in Singapore is very much unaffordable. There are good economic, social and political reasons to believe that assets prices have to come down to sensible level to maintain competitiveness and also to move towards a more centre-left society with which the government is now embarking.

There are some investors buying into CCR now because prices in CCR have been correcting slowly since 2011. With the slowing economy, more value buys can be found in CCR. Prices in OCR and RCR are likely to come under pressure soon with the government's firmness towards a soft landing.

Teddy may not be one of my favourite characters in this forum, but his contributions since 2013 have been very informative and constructive.

[Kelonguni]

My thinking is more support for OCR coming after the HDB upgraders complete their MOP within these two years.

Obviously Teddy has underestimated this group, just read his previous condescending post. Not constructive and not informative. He stereotypes them, boxes people into groups, and through the prejudiced lens, is bound not to be able to understand the situation or predict future movements accurately.

Remember! A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers.

So buying decisions should not depend on the number of your well respected friends who had bought recently. Nor should it depends on your assessment of what the property prices should be with respect to the rising income (despite knowing that property prices have risen far more than real income since 2009).

If you are investing in the US, it may be easier because the US state of economy depends largely on internal consumption and less affected by external environment.

For Singapore, property investment is much more complex. Our domestic demand is too small to influence the economy and we are highly affected by external factors. We have also exhausted all easy means to grow our economy such as the influx of foreigners and cheap labour.

For investors investing in Singapore's property, we need to look at both the local and global factors and the government's policies especially towards wealth re-distributions. From a social economic perspective, property in Singapore is very much unaffordable. There are good economic, social and political reasons to believe that assets prices have to come down to sensible level to maintain competitiveness and also to move towards a more centre-left society with which the government is now embarking.

There are some investors buying into CCR now because prices in CCR have been correcting slowly since 2011. With the slowing economy, more value buys can be found in CCR. Prices in OCR and RCR are likely to come under pressure soon with the government's firmness towards a soft landing.

Teddy may not be one of my favourite characters in this forum, but his contributions since 2013 have been very informative and constructive.

[Kelonguni]

Simple theory you also cannot understand or you are still trying to propagate your own self-interests?

People who read without bias will be able to decide whether I am propagating my self interest.

[bargain hunter]

bro, correct me if i'm wrong coz i don't have time to go through all your posts but u have similarly underestimated the reasons for why there are buyers for CCR properties and why they seem to be coming back?

My thinking is more support for OCR coming after the HDB upgraders complete their MOP within these two years.

Obviously Teddy has underestimated this group, just read his previous condescending post. Not constructive and not informative. He stereotypes them, boxes people into groups, and through the prejudiced lens, is bound not to be able to understand the situation or predict future movements accurately.

[Kelonguni]

Bro Bargain hunter, don't get me wrong.

I have never said there will be no CCR buyers. My thinking is that the regions are related. There is no way one can deny that CCR>RCR>OCR, but my thinking was that the gap would close up, from the time of ABSD (2012), but especially after TDSR (2013) implementation. The gap would still be there but unlikely to widen for some time more.

For those who need to buy CCR, this is a good time to go in. The prices on sale appears close to RCR at the peak. For me, I am content holding a few units of OCR and collecting rent rather than to consolidate to get CCR. Any emergencies, I can still sell one or two and still have a place to stay. Moreover, the current environment makes it very hard to buy and sell, taxes implanted everywhere. Even for recession, people still need a place to stay, maybe move further and further from city centre only...

I believe that a good proportion of upgraders will think similarly, to get OCR properties both as a result of being near workplace and also to minimise amount (risk) placed in. Agreed that we are not big businessmen with huge capital to move around.

bro, correct me if i'm wrong coz i don't have time to go through all your posts but u have similarly underestimated the reasons for why there are buyers for CCR properties and why they seem to be coming back?

[cartman]

latest feb caveat for oceanfront @ sentosa cove

size 1647 sq ft sold at $1.894m, only $1150 psf

but its a patio unit though

[teddybear]

What is there to under-estimate the OCR folks?
Like that you can also say the government under-estimated the OCR folks when they implemented TDSR? (we all know that the OCR folks put most of their total assets in properties compared to the CCR folks...)
Furthermore, my estimation and forecast is based on OCR folks' income statistics collected by the government, and I am just trying to estimate what is the max property price that is still considered affordable to them based on their income data....

Khaw Boon Wan said 4x anual income.

Ok I am very generous by doubling that to 8x annual income.
Even at such OPTIMISTICALLY SUPER HIGH multiple, the current OCR property prices are already considered very high vs the INCOME of these OCR folks.

Anybody (except an idiot) would know that whether property price can rise is all about affordability of the people buying them, and the statistics for the INCOME of OCR folks vs current OCR property prices are already REALLY PESSIMISTIC, let alone think about probability of significant price rise for OCR property prices!
For OCR property price to rise, the general OCR folks will have to have much higher salary rise, but that is almost impossible given the stagnant Singapore economy..........

When economy is bad, general people (the OCR folks) will only see pay decrease or even jobless, and not pay rise significantly.

We have seen that in 2009, and we will see that again..............



As to potential HDB upgraders after they complete their MOP, why would they want to upgrade to OCR private properties and pay sky-high price (and over-commit vs their income)?
Not when economy is bad, their job is unsecure, they may get retrenched, cost of living still going up, ....
Anyway, TDSR already most likely killed most of these people's upgrading plan........

As to your statement about what I said is not constructive and not informative despite my argument being based on hard facts (OCR folks income data), and the generally used income multiple (4x annual income), I don't know what to say!
You are telling all of us here that you are not prejudiced when you are just giving empty talks and cannot substantiate what you said and claimed with hard data and statistics?

How about this, based on income profile of OCR folks, show us how much more OCR property prices can go up and they will still remain easily affordable to OCR folks based on their household income?
Come on, show us the hard facts and statistics, don't just give empty talks........
No wonder people say empty vessel make the loudest noise!

My thinking is more support for OCR coming after the HDB upgraders complete their MOP within these two years.

Obviously Teddy has underestimated this group, just read his previous condescending post. Not constructive and not informative. He stereotypes them, boxes people into groups, and through the prejudiced lens, is bound not to be able to understand the situation or predict future movements accurately.

[Leeds]

Teddy is right that with TDSR, few HDB upgrader could afford to upgrade to private property at current price level. With a slowing economy and rising interest rate, prices for OCR can only come down. If the price gap between CCR and OCR flattens further, those foreigners who have been buying into OCR now will switch back to OCR and even less people will be buying into OCR.

MAS has indicated that they are monitoring the prices in OCR because this is the segment that needs attention. I think both MAS and MND are confident that prices in OCR will be heading for a soft landing as planned, hence no additional measure now to address the prices inequality between CCR and OCR.

[bargain hunter]

another urban resort penthouse sold:

25 FEB 2016 32A CAIRNHILL ROAD #XX-XX RESALE 4,715sq ft STRATA 1,803psf $8,500,000 PRIVATE

is this project fully sold now?

[bargain hunter]

no loss to report at the perennial favourite. instead, a profit for a big unit at st regis:

Sold 26 FEB 2016 33 TANGLIN ROAD #XX-XX 5,543sq ft 2,706psf
Bought 10 FEB 2012 2,111psf

[bargain hunter]

ground floor unit at leedon residences:

LEEDON RESIDENCE LEEDON HEIGHTS Condominium 10 CCR Freehold New Sale 1 $8,133,000 - 4,822sq ft Strata 01 to 05 1,687psf Feb-16

[Kelonguni]

KBW (or Tharman) also said that 1,000 salary can buy flat. But the cheapest flat I can find (2rm flexi) is 76K after grants.

4X annual income is at max 48K affordability. How to reconcile with 76K?

Don't take people's words so seriously. What he said is not written in the bible.

[Kelonguni]

So in your opinion, should I sell all OCR to exchange for 1 CCR FH property to house 1 family now that authorities say CCR ok but OCR still elevated?

Teddy is right that with TDSR, few HDB upgrader could afford to upgrade to private property at current price level. With a slowing economy and rising interest rate, prices for OCR can only come down. If the price gap between CCR and OCR flattens further, those foreigners who have been buying into OCR now will switch back to OCR and even less people will be buying into OCR.

MAS has indicated that they are monitoring the prices in OCR because this is the segment that needs attention. I think both MAS and MND are confident that prices in OCR will be heading for a soft landing as planned, hence no additional measure now to address the prices inequality between CCR and OCR.