Business Times - 29 Feb 2012
Property mass-market starts post-ABSD recovery
NUS SRPI also shows upmarket homes in Central Region are still softening
By KALPANA RASHIWALA
(SINGAPORE) The mass- market segment has begun to recover from its knee-jerk reaction to the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) introduced in December, but the upmarket private homes in the Central Region are still suffering.
Prices of completed private apartments (excluding smaller ones) in Non-Central Region rose 1 per cent in January, compared to December.
But according to the flash estimates of NUS' Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI), prices of completed properties in the Central Region softened a further 1.9 per cent, relative to the previous month. Small apartments (up to 506 sq ft) also saw their prices fall 1 per cent, compared to December.
'This suggests that the ABSD has affected units in the Central Region, where buyers are more likely to be foreign-based or institutional, as well as shoebox units, where buyers tend to be more speculative,' said Associate Professor Lum Sau Kim of the Institute of Real Estate Studies (IRES).
'Despite announcements of continued government land supply into 2012, the robust market activity in the non-luxury segment has created sufficient demand tension to boost the secondary market for Non-Central units.'
SRPI tracks prices of completed private apartments and condos (excluding executive condos).
Starting from the January 2012 indices published yesterday, IRES has introduced a new basket - the sixth in the series - to make the indices more in tune with projects completed up to September last year.
'We formed Basket 6 by adding 113 new projects, out of which 52 were from Central Region, and dropping 106 older projects that had been completed between October 1998 and September 2001,' said Prof Lum.
Basket 6 comprises 370 projects totalling 74,015 units located across 25 districts in Singapore that were completed between October 2001 and September 2011. Basket 5 comprised 363 projects with 74,150 units completed between October 1998 and September 2009.
Weights for computing the capital-weighted SRPI indices were assigned based on the market value as at December 2011 of all the units in the latest Basket 6.
Without reconstituting the basket, the SRPI flash index values (based on Basket 5) for January 2012 would have been lower and hence there would be marginally larger percentage declines in prices, says Prof Lum. 'The difference arises from a substitution of newer projects for older ones going from Basket 5 to Basket 6. We can infer that newer units enjoyed better price performance than 10- to 12-year vintage units,' she added.
Based on Basket 5, SRPI for Central Region - comprising Districts 1-4 (which include the financial district and Sentosa Cove) and the traditional prime residential districts of 9, 10 and 11 - would have dipped 2.4 per cent month on month in January 2012, compared with a 1.9 per cent drop based on Basket 6.
The sub-index for Non-Central Region dipped 0.4 per cent m-on-m in January based on Basket 5, but rose 1 per cent based on Basket 6.
Over the same period, SRPI for small apartments islandwide declined 4.1 per cent going by Basket 5. Based on Basket 6, however, the drop was a much smaller 1 per cent. 'The small unit SRPI is more volatile in Basket 5 as small units are less well represented there. Basket 6 is better as we have captured more of these units and the sub-index would be less susceptible to outlier transactions,' says Prof Lum.
The overall SRPI fell 1.2 per cent based on Basket 5 and a smaller 0.4 per cent on Basket 6.
On both baskets, however, the Non-Central Region subindex fared better than the subindices for Central Region and small apartments islandwide.
DTZ's Southeast Asia chief operating officer Ong Choon Fah said:
'There's a perception that in the Central Region and for small units, the risks could be higher following the ABSD because these units attract more investors. So owners of such properties may be more willing to take a profit and accept prices that are a bit lower.' She expects the trend to continue.
Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui added: 'The fall in the overall SRPI is reflective of a slower secondary market which has dropped 25 per cent in sales volume over the past year and is manifesting itself in price sluggishness.
'This is also the case for Central, where secondary market transactions fell 27 per cent in 2011, due mainly to falling demand in the prime sub-market. Also the ABSD has been expected to weigh more heavily on the prime districts due to the relatively higher proportion of foreign buyers compared to Non-Central.'
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