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Thread: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

  1. #1
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    Cool What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    What makes this property boom different from the past booms? Please give me your views.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    A very interesting thread for discussion. Let me start.

    The last boom which ended in 1996 involved not just core central region properties but also HDB flats. At their highs, some executive HDB flats in Queenstown, Bishan and perhaps a few other locations, were transacted at about $800,000. Across the board, all types of properties rallied.

    This time round, the HDB market is still quite muted, but there are now signs that things are stirring for HDB in desired locations like Queentown, Toa Payoh. Suburbs private condos are also beginning to move.

    It makes me conclude that the bull run in the property market would spread to outskirt area soon. So we are still in the beginning of the run-up.

  3. #3
    Beng Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Last time. Developing country. Economy boom. Many jobs. People become richer. Everybody upgrades. Upgrade means bottoms up.


    Now. Developed country, first world and Asia Hub. Low-end jobs lost to developing countries. Middle-level jobs faced salary ceiling challenge from other developing/developed countries and foreigners/immigrants. High-end jobs in high demand. Lots of investment/funds/cash coming in. Quite a number of rich immigrants.

    Funds buy private condos. High-end condos preffered for investment purpose. Rich immigants also buy high-end condos (and some also buy landed properties). None of them are keen on low-end condos (suburb condos). So much funds/cash/investments, so little high-end condos. Somemore got many idoits go enblocs. So prices go up, up and up.

    Some high-end earners slowly can't buy high-end condos, so buy middle-level condos. So middle-level condo prices also go up. Got more middle-level condos, so prices go up slower than high-end condos.

    One day, some high-end earners can't afford middle-level condos, so they buy low-end condos. So, low-end condos will also go up.

    Another day, (upper) middle-level earner can't afford low-end condos, so they buy the big HDB flats.

    ............. all top-down due to inflow of investments/funds/rich immigrants.



    1996: People get richer. Upgrade. Bottoms up.
    2005: Investment/funds/cash/rich immigrants come in. Invest. Top down.

  4. #4
    Unregistered Guest

    Thumbs up Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Last boom had a great bearing on the handing over of Hongkong. You can see that by the third quarter of 1996, most honkongers who wanted to move to S'pore bought their flats, and then the boom also became flat....

    So, it may be safer this time, but be alert on the economic cycle, which is beyond the control of S'pore.

    Mat

  5. #5
    1996! Guest

    Unhappy Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by Madeira
    A very interesting thread for discussion. Let me start.

    The last boom which ended in 1996 involved not just core central region properties but also HDB flats. At their highs, some executive HDB flats in Queenstown, Bishan and perhaps a few other locations, were transacted at about $800,000. Across the board, all types of properties rallied.

    This time round, the HDB market is still quite muted, but there are now signs that things are stirring for HDB in desired locations like Queentown, Toa Payoh. Suburbs private condos are also beginning to move.

    It makes me conclude that the bull run in the property market would spread to outskirt area soon. So we are still in the beginning of the run-up.
    Very sad that i missed 1996. I was still in the army.....SOB... If not maybe a millionaire already... Now only hope this time can make money....HDB up to $800,000?!!!! Shit, now hdb only inched up by less than 3% points.

  6. #6
    Bypasser Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by 1996!
    Very sad that i missed 1996. I was still in the army.....SOB... If not maybe a millionaire already... Now only hope this time can make money....HDB up to $800,000?!!!! Shit, now hdb only inched up by less than 3% points.


    Like what Ah Beng said, the current boom is top-down.
    For HDB to edge up 10%, the low-end condo pricings have to be out of reach to potential buyers. For the low-end condo pricings to go up, the middle-level condo pricings have to be out of reach to potential buyers. For the middle-level condo pricings to go up, the high-end condo pricings have to be out of reach to potential buyers.

    Is the high-end pricings out of reach to potential buyers now? Yes but only some buyers. These "some" buyers are now buying the middle-level condo. The middle-level condo is still affordable to many. So low-end condo and HDB will have to wait for their turns.

  7. #7
    kanalan Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bypasser
    Like what Ah Beng said, the current boom is top-down.
    For HDB to edge up 10%, the low-end condo pricings have to be out of reach to potential buyers. For the low-end condo pricings to go up, the middle-level condo pricings have to be out of reach to potential buyers. For the middle-level condo pricings to go up, the high-end condo pricings have to be out of reach to potential buyers.

    Is the high-end pricings out of reach to potential buyers now? Yes but only some buyers. These "some" buyers are now buying the middle-level condo. The middle-level condo is still affordable to many. So low-end condo and HDB will have to wait for their turns.
    Shit, i hope by the time low-end start to climb, the bubble have not burst yet. In other words low end will have a lowest gain at the shortest time possible. sigh.........

  8. #8
    Bypasser Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by kanalan
    Shit, i hope by the time low-end start to climb, the bubble have not burst yet. In other words low end will have a lowest gain at the shortest time possible. sigh.........

    << Top-down Effect >>
    High-end: very low few units so prices go up, up and up.
    Low-end: a lot of units so prices go up in smaller percentage and slower.
    HDB: too many units, difficult to have high percentage increase.

  9. #9
    Pls help me. Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Hello all condo owners. I need some advise and opinions. I just inherited some money and i was looking at east coast area to purchase a condo for staying and investing. I had been to a few places.

    1). Melvern springs (penthouse 2+1)@$980,000 built in 1100+sft and 900+PES
    2). Spring@katong (penthouse 3+1)@$870,000 built in 1300+sft and 400+PES
    3). Cote d'azur (mid floor 2+1)@$830,000 and others. 1000+sft and 80+PES
    4). Costel del sol (mid floor 3+1)@$955,000 and others. 1300+sft and 80+PES
    5). Waterplace (low floor 2+1)@$978,000. 1000+sft, no PES
    6). Santuary green (mid floor 3+1)@$910,000. 1100+sft, 50+PES

    Melvern springs, i like the cosy compounds but it is within the joo chiat area(not conducive for family to walk around). Also looks abit old and PES is too big, sad part is on top of penthouse is no view because it is too low. Spring@katong, i like the penthouse because there is split live in space for 2 floors and PES on both floors,lovely swimming pool, nice people there. Saw angmohs and indians, but it is next to an indian temple which is very noisy. Same area as melvern, but away one road from joo chiat.
    Cote d'azur is a good place to live in, nice enviornment, nice pools, nice community, next to parkway parade, bus stop next door, super convinient. But i am worry about the new freehold condos coming up surrounding it. When they TOP, i am worried about the fate of Cote d'azur. Will the other projects gun down Cote?
    Costal del sol, nice big compound, massive community, a bit HK style look, very nice view though, but a bit of the end of the ECP, i think , it is on the far side, cannot see town. Only changi airport direction. Nice sea view with not blockage if you can get high floors.
    Waterplace, i love their swimming pool and compound, very impressed with the project, developer is asking 1200psf!! shit, my agent got me some choices in secondary market about 1000psf. Also a bit ulu at Tanjong rhu. But one thing though, looking out the unit, i see the Singapore flyer very near also see golf course. Feel very good, maybe because i kena brainwashed by media too much. IR, flyer, IR, flyer. Noisy in this unit because of ECP.
    Santuary green, just next to waterplace, entrance not very immpresive after seeing waterplace. buildings like costel del sol, very HK structures. But i like the second pool facing ECP, very resort like. Saw the unit, wow, again i see the Singapore flyer and golf course, in fact better view than waterplace. Nearer even.
    Overall, all has good and bad. Pls give me some ideas which would you choose?

  10. #10
    Unregistered Guest

    Thumbs up Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Hi,

    Personally I would get either Cote d'Azur or Sanctuary Green.

    Why?

    Cote dazur: next to Parkway Parade. Because of this amenity so close by, demand will always be high. Amberville next door yet to launch. When it does, you can be sure some of its prestige and hig prices wil rub off on Cote.

    Sanctuary Green: 1) Tanjong Rhu is growth location. Prices can only go up from here. Preferred residence for most expats living in the East, the other is Meyer Rd but that is irrelevant cos freehold and twice the prices of Tanjong Rhu.

    2) Likely well-educated and genteel residents. Take a drive around the parking lots. Many continental cars especially the 'yuppie' type such as BMW and Audi, non-modified. That should be a giveaway to the resident profile. Good condo management.


    Not familiar with Melvern Springs and Springs@Katong so can't comment.

    Water Place: Far East project. Draw your own conclusions. They found it impossible to finish selling before the property boom. Why? Expensive, big units. Really not many people wanted. Sanctuary Green was also in the same situation but at least it is much lower in price.

    Costa Del Sol: generic HK style condo. Meaning it has very little frills, even less gloss. Take a walk around the estate. Facilities are of a low quality and standard. Before the boom, this project was standing in darkness for years - more than half of units were vacant. They had to BEG people to buy.


    Hope my comments were helpful to you.

  11. #11
    MIA Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bypasser
    << Top-down Effect >>
    High-end: very low few units so prices go up, up and up.
    Low-end: a lot of units so prices go up in smaller percentage and slower.
    HDB: too many units, difficult to have high percentage increase.

    How to speed up the Top-down Effect?

  12. #12
    Pls help me. Guest

    Thumbs down Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    Hi,

    Personally I would get either Cote d'Azur or Sanctuary Green.

    Why?

    Cote dazur: next to Parkway Parade. Because of this amenity so close by, demand will always be high. Amberville next door yet to launch. When it does, you can be sure some of its prestige and hig prices wil rub off on Cote.

    Sanctuary Green: 1) Tanjong Rhu is growth location. Prices can only go up from here. Preferred residence for most expats living in the East, the other is Meyer Rd but that is irrelevant cos freehold and twice the prices of Tanjong Rhu.

    2) Likely well-educated and genteel residents. Take a drive around the parking lots. Many continental cars especially the 'yuppie' type such as BMW and Audi, non-modified. That should be a giveaway to the resident profile. Good condo management.


    Not familiar with Melvern Springs and Springs@Katong so can't comment.

    Water Place: Far East project. Draw your own conclusions. They found it impossible to finish selling before the property boom. Why? Expensive, big units. Really not many people wanted. Sanctuary Green was also in the same situation but at least it is much lower in price.

    Costa Del Sol: generic HK style condo. Meaning it has very little frills, even less gloss. Take a walk around the estate. Facilities are of a low quality and standard. Before the boom, this project was standing in darkness for years - more than half of units were vacant. They had to BEG people to buy.


    Hope my comments were helpful to you.
    Thanks for your advise. In fact i have already narrowed down to santuary green. Problem right now is the seller is giving me a headache. The price they quoted was $910,000 for the 4 flr 1152 sqft unit. Now they are asking for more!!!! Shit! the bloody agent acting for them is asking me to give them a price, this is very unprofessional......

  13. #13
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pls help me.
    Thanks for your advise. In fact i have already narrowed down to santuary green. Problem right now is the seller is giving me a headache. The price they quoted was $910,000 for the 4 flr 1152 sqft unit. Now they are asking for more!!!! Shit! the bloody agent acting for them is asking me to give them a price, this is very unprofessional......
    Don't be too surprised about this kind of situation. This owner is basically what we call as "fishing". Looks like there is not real intention to sell. If not they will give you a firm offer for you. Either that or they want you to give them a offer they can't refuse. This kind of market is better to sell than to buy. Don't fret about it, this is just the beginning.

  14. #14
    Seller Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pls help me.
    Thanks for your advise. In fact i have already narrowed down to santuary green. Problem right now is the seller is giving me a headache. The price they quoted was $910,000 for the 4 flr 1152 sqft unit. Now they are asking for more!!!! Shit! the bloody agent acting for them is asking me to give them a price, this is very unprofessional......

    Please give me some good reasons why I should sell to you.

  15. #15
    Bypasser Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by MIA
    How to speed up the Top-down Effect?

    Lure more High-Net-Worth Individuals into the country lah.

  16. #16
    Teacher Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by Beng
    Last time. Developing country. Economy boom. Many jobs. People become richer. Everybody upgrades. Upgrade means bottoms up.


    Now. Developed country, first world and Asia Hub. Low-end jobs lost to developing countries. Middle-level jobs faced salary ceiling challenge from other developing/developed countries and foreigners/immigrants. High-end jobs in high demand. Lots of investment/funds/cash coming in. Quite a number of rich immigrants.

    Funds buy private condos. High-end condos preffered for investment purpose. Rich immigants also buy high-end condos (and some also buy landed properties). None of them are keen on low-end condos (suburb condos). So much funds/cash/investments, so little high-end condos. Somemore got many idoits go enblocs. So prices go up, up and up.

    Some high-end earners slowly can't buy high-end condos, so buy middle-level condos. So middle-level condo prices also go up. Got more middle-level condos, so prices go up slower than high-end condos.

    One day, some high-end earners can't afford middle-level condos, so they buy low-end condos. So, low-end condos will also go up.

    Another day, (upper) middle-level earner can't afford low-end condos, so they buy the big HDB flats.

    ............. all top-down due to inflow of investments/funds/rich immigrants.



    1996: People get richer. Upgrade. Bottoms up.
    2005: Investment/funds/cash/rich immigrants come in. Invest. Top down.

    As this boom is top down, all of you should go buy high-end properties first, then followed by middle-level ones, then followed by low-end ones.

  17. #17
    buyer Guest

    Thumbs up Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by Teacher
    As this boom is top down, all of you should go buy high-end properties first, then followed by middle-level ones, then followed by low-end ones.
    This is damn true loh. I agree with you 100%!

  18. #18
    Think with your brains Guest

    Post Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    QUOTE=Economist]Friends!

    1. The government is not worried about the red-hot property market.

    2. Rising property prices are a logical consequence of good economy policies.

    3. We are still a lower-cost city among the global financial centres. We are about a 1/3 of London, 40% of HongKong and about 60% of Tokyo.

    4. We are not anywhere near the point of excessive price inflation in property market.

    5. The government is comfortable as the mass market is not involved in the frenzy.

    So, what are you waiting for?[/QUOTE]
    Because
    1. The government is making too much money in this red-hot market. URA selling pockets of land at record smashing prices, GLCs eg:- capitaland, keppel land and ..... cashing in tremendous amounts.
    2. Rising property prices in singapore are a logical consequence of Good hype, buzz and marketing(artificially proped up).
    3. Our pay is 1/3 london, 2/5 hongkong and 3/5 tokyo. So?
    Ministers pay 300% london, 150% hongkong, 200% tokyo.
    Country size 1/100 london, 1/2 hongkong, 1/40 tokyo.
    4. Yes, we are not. Just that only the rich can get richer.
    5. Government is definately comfortable as the 95% of singaporeans have no part of this money making sector, best part is that they still get pay rise.

  19. #19
    Supporter Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by Think with your brains
    Because
    1. The government is making too much money in this red-hot market. URA selling pockets of land at record smashing prices, GLCs eg:- capitaland, keppel land and ..... cashing in tremendous amounts.
    2. Rising property prices in singapore are a logical consequence of Good hype, buzz and marketing(artificially proped up).
    3. Our pay is 1/3 london, 2/5 hongkong and 3/5 tokyo. So?
    Ministers pay 300% london, 150% hongkong, 200% tokyo.
    Country size 1/100 london, 1/2 hongkong, 1/40 tokyo.
    4. Yes, we are not. Just that only the rich can get richer.
    5. Government is definately comfortable as the 95% of singaporeans have no part of this money making sector, best part is that they still get pay rise.

    Thanks for confirming that there will be record smashing prices and rising property prices.

    Time to create more wealth out of the market man!
    Yes!

  20. #20
    FO Guest

    Thumbs down Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    This website full of investors, gamblers and property agents that think that people will get brainwashed and start buying anything. So that their commitments at stake will reap in more money for them.
    This website has a bunch of Motherfxxkin axxholes with brains filled with shXt from the toilet in istana.

  21. #21
    Manner Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by FO
    This website full of investors, gamblers and property agents that think that people will get brainwashed and start buying anything. So that their commitments at stake will reap in more money for them.
    This website has a bunch of Motherfxxkin axxholes with brains filled with shXt from the toilet in istana.

    FO, stop your vulgarities here. You are disgracing yourself!

  22. #22
    Join Date
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    Cool Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Ist casualty, FO. Do not blame us for your problems. Find a solution.

  23. #23
    Join Date
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    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    I remember in the 1990s, we had queues for first time HDB flats so much so one would ROM now and in two years time, get his/her flat and do the customary wedding - that was quite typical back then. It was also anecdotal evidence that we had a big demand-supply imbalance that was being led by demand from the masses ie bottom up. As HDB prices were pushed up as a result, we had the upgraders-led property boom and that saw price rise across the island and all segments.

    Right now, as many had rightly pointed out, this is a top down property boom but I believe its a "central"-led boom and not a "pte property" boom as some believe. I believe most of the price rise will be focused on the central area - I've written in another thread of Singapore being a Megacity and prices correlating with how far one is from the central. At the moment, I think we are seeing a re-rating of property prices to reflect a cultural change in mind-set i.e. more of us want to live near the city or invest in units near the city in expectations that further down the road, prices here will be much higher.

    In the long-run, in the next 10-20 years, I think properties in the central will double. When you have so many foreigners coming in, a more affluent society, and limited residential land in the central, that's a given. If anyone wants to build a retirement nest egg, I believe they should pick up a unit in the central during the next recession.

    But outside of the central, I am not too sure. There is still vast tracks of land to build apartments on ie supply can be made available. Yes some projects outside the city have sold out recently, but I wonder how much of this has actually got to do with kiasu-nism (those who want to speculate but cannot afford to take the risk associated with central projects) and admittedly pent-up demand over the years. Once prices outside of the central fail to go up as expected (thus dousing the specualtion herre) and the existing pent-up demand is filled, I think the trend I am talking about will be clear.

    So in summary, in the current property boom unlike the previous across the island rise, I think we'll see an exponential rise in property prices based on the yard-stick of how far such properties are away from the central.

    Just a note - HDBs in the central area are doing very well too, disproving the thoughts of many who say HBDs are lagging in price. Of course, we cannot expect HDBs to go up >50% like some pte properties but I know for a fact that HDB flats in Hong Lim (which is the closest you can get to Raffles Place) are up 30% over the past 5 years.

  24. #24
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    i have this strong feeling that at the next recession, the lows of the so-called prime/central properties will not be anywere near the current prices.

  25. #25
    Join Date
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    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Exactly my sentiment!
    With this cultural shift in mindset to live in the city, any drop in price even in a recession will see ready buyers come in. I know of a bunch of friends who are already sitting by the sidelines - renting at the moment - and waiting for a recession before committing into a good unit(s).

  26. #26
    Patience and study. Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Yes, i sold my unit for a $500,000 profit. My father who is in his late 60's told me to rent and wait. But looking at the current market, i did not rent. Instead, i bought a unit which did not go up that much yet, which i did research in. That was early march. Now owners there are asking for 60% more than what i bought for. The market is still moving up, i realised as long as you buy into a project that has good potential and not ridiculous in price, you can actually make more than 40% when you sell. If you pick up on a project that is already on a roll and the price has already picked up alot, you are actually buying on a risk. If there is a correction, the damage can be very substential.

  27. #27
    Patience and study. Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Market playing is the same for all investments. Be it property and shares. Now is not say the time to sell or to hold only. You can still buy, but you have to buy very wisely. Prime areas are already very expensive. But there are still areas to buy. Sub-prime and east coast i would say still has alot of good grabs, even though the prices have already climbed up. Bukit timah, i think still has some underpriced items. I still have some money left to throw 1 more time, anyone can recommend me something?

  28. #28
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by Patience and study.
    Market playing is the same for all investments. Be it property and shares. Now is not say the time to sell or to hold only. You can still buy, but you have to buy very wisely. Prime areas are already very expensive. But there are still areas to buy. Sub-prime and east coast i would say still has alot of good grabs, even though the prices have already climbed up. Bukit timah, i think still has some underpriced items. I still have some money left to throw 1 more time, anyone can recommend me something?
    For mass market project, the golden rule of thumb must be "rental yield"
    Yield less than 5% or above, do even waste time in considering it. In fact, since the rental rises much earlier than property price in the recent upswing, the best way to gauage the worth of the property should be looking at above 6.5% yield

  29. #29
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by Unregistered
    For mass market project, the golden rule of thumb must be "rental yield"
    Yield less than 5% or above, do even waste time in considering it. In fact, since the rental rises much earlier than property price in the recent upswing, the best way to gauage the worth of the property should be looking at above 6.5% yield
    How to calculate rental yield? Sorry... me newbie..

  30. #30
    Unregistered Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by Patience and study.
    Yes, i sold my unit for a $500,000 profit. My father who is in his late 60's told me to rent and wait. But looking at the current market, i did not rent. Instead, i bought a unit which did not go up that much yet, which i did research in. That was early march. Now owners there are asking for 60% more than what i bought for. The market is still moving up, i realised as long as you buy into a project that has good potential and not ridiculous in price, you can actually make more than 40% when you sell. If you pick up on a project that is already on a roll and the price has already picked up alot, you are actually buying on a risk. If there is a correction, the damage can be very substential.
    wow, which devt is this? 60% price movement since early mar (as in just 2 months ago)?

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