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Thread: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

  1. #1
    Newbie hayata1972's Avatar
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    Cool What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    What makes this property boom different from the past booms? Please give me your views.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    A very interesting thread for discussion. Let me start.

    The last boom which ended in 1996 involved not just core central region properties but also HDB flats. At their highs, some executive HDB flats in Queenstown, Bishan and perhaps a few other locations, were transacted at about $800,000. Across the board, all types of properties rallied.

    This time round, the HDB market is still quite muted, but there are now signs that things are stirring for HDB in desired locations like Queentown, Toa Payoh. Suburbs private condos are also beginning to move.

    It makes me conclude that the bull run in the property market would spread to outskirt area soon. So we are still in the beginning of the run-up.

  3. #3
    Beng
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    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Last time. Developing country. Economy boom. Many jobs. People become richer. Everybody upgrades. Upgrade means bottoms up.


    Now. Developed country, first world and Asia Hub. Low-end jobs lost to developing countries. Middle-level jobs faced salary ceiling challenge from other developing/developed countries and foreigners/immigrants. High-end jobs in high demand. Lots of investment/funds/cash coming in. Quite a number of rich immigrants.

    Funds buy private condos. High-end condos preffered for investment purpose. Rich immigants also buy high-end condos (and some also buy landed properties). None of them are keen on low-end condos (suburb condos). So much funds/cash/investments, so little high-end condos. Somemore got many idoits go enblocs. So prices go up, up and up.

    Some high-end earners slowly can't buy high-end condos, so buy middle-level condos. So middle-level condo prices also go up. Got more middle-level condos, so prices go up slower than high-end condos.

    One day, some high-end earners can't afford middle-level condos, so they buy low-end condos. So, low-end condos will also go up.

    Another day, (upper) middle-level earner can't afford low-end condos, so they buy the big HDB flats.

    ............. all top-down due to inflow of investments/funds/rich immigrants.



    1996: People get richer. Upgrade. Bottoms up.
    2005: Investment/funds/cash/rich immigrants come in. Invest. Top down.

  4. #4
    Unregistered
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    Thumbs up Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Last boom had a great bearing on the handing over of Hongkong. You can see that by the third quarter of 1996, most honkongers who wanted to move to S'pore bought their flats, and then the boom also became flat....

    So, it may be safer this time, but be alert on the economic cycle, which is beyond the control of S'pore.

    Mat

  5. #5
    1996!
    Guest

    Unhappy Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by Madeira
    A very interesting thread for discussion. Let me start.

    The last boom which ended in 1996 involved not just core central region properties but also HDB flats. At their highs, some executive HDB flats in Queenstown, Bishan and perhaps a few other locations, were transacted at about $800,000. Across the board, all types of properties rallied.

    This time round, the HDB market is still quite muted, but there are now signs that things are stirring for HDB in desired locations like Queentown, Toa Payoh. Suburbs private condos are also beginning to move.

    It makes me conclude that the bull run in the property market would spread to outskirt area soon. So we are still in the beginning of the run-up.
    Very sad that i missed 1996. I was still in the army.....SOB... If not maybe a millionaire already... Now only hope this time can make money....HDB up to $800,000?!!!! Shit, now hdb only inched up by less than 3% points.

  6. #6
    Bypasser
    Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by 1996!
    Very sad that i missed 1996. I was still in the army.....SOB... If not maybe a millionaire already... Now only hope this time can make money....HDB up to $800,000?!!!! Shit, now hdb only inched up by less than 3% points.


    Like what Ah Beng said, the current boom is top-down.
    For HDB to edge up 10%, the low-end condo pricings have to be out of reach to potential buyers. For the low-end condo pricings to go up, the middle-level condo pricings have to be out of reach to potential buyers. For the middle-level condo pricings to go up, the high-end condo pricings have to be out of reach to potential buyers.

    Is the high-end pricings out of reach to potential buyers now? Yes but only some buyers. These "some" buyers are now buying the middle-level condo. The middle-level condo is still affordable to many. So low-end condo and HDB will have to wait for their turns.

  7. #7
    kanalan
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    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bypasser
    Like what Ah Beng said, the current boom is top-down.
    For HDB to edge up 10%, the low-end condo pricings have to be out of reach to potential buyers. For the low-end condo pricings to go up, the middle-level condo pricings have to be out of reach to potential buyers. For the middle-level condo pricings to go up, the high-end condo pricings have to be out of reach to potential buyers.

    Is the high-end pricings out of reach to potential buyers now? Yes but only some buyers. These "some" buyers are now buying the middle-level condo. The middle-level condo is still affordable to many. So low-end condo and HDB will have to wait for their turns.
    Shit, i hope by the time low-end start to climb, the bubble have not burst yet. In other words low end will have a lowest gain at the shortest time possible. sigh.........

  8. #8
    Bypasser
    Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Quote Originally Posted by kanalan
    Shit, i hope by the time low-end start to climb, the bubble have not burst yet. In other words low end will have a lowest gain at the shortest time possible. sigh.........

    << Top-down Effect >>
    High-end: very low few units so prices go up, up and up.
    Low-end: a lot of units so prices go up in smaller percentage and slower.
    HDB: too many units, difficult to have high percentage increase.

  9. #9
    Pls help me.
    Guest

    Default Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Hello all condo owners. I need some advise and opinions. I just inherited some money and i was looking at east coast area to purchase a condo for staying and investing. I had been to a few places.

    1). Melvern springs (penthouse 2+1)@$980,000 built in 1100+sft and 900+PES
    2). [email protected] (penthouse 3+1)@$870,000 built in 1300+sft and 400+PES
    3). Cote d'azur (mid floor 2+1)@$830,000 and others. 1000+sft and 80+PES
    4). Costel del sol (mid floor 3+1)@$955,000 and others. 1300+sft and 80+PES
    5). Waterplace (low floor 2+1)@$978,000. 1000+sft, no PES
    6). Santuary green (mid floor 3+1)@$910,000. 1100+sft, 50+PES

    Melvern springs, i like the cosy compounds but it is within the joo chiat area(not conducive for family to walk around). Also looks abit old and PES is too big, sad part is on top of penthouse is no view because it is too low. [email protected], i like the penthouse because there is split live in space for 2 floors and PES on both floors,lovely swimming pool, nice people there. Saw angmohs and indians, but it is next to an indian temple which is very noisy. Same area as melvern, but away one road from joo chiat.
    Cote d'azur is a good place to live in, nice enviornment, nice pools, nice community, next to parkway parade, bus stop next door, super convinient. But i am worry about the new freehold condos coming up surrounding it. When they TOP, i am worried about the fate of Cote d'azur. Will the other projects gun down Cote?
    Costal del sol, nice big compound, massive community, a bit HK style look, very nice view though, but a bit of the end of the ECP, i think , it is on the far side, cannot see town. Only changi airport direction. Nice sea view with not blockage if you can get high floors.
    Waterplace, i love their swimming pool and compound, very impressed with the project, developer is asking 1200psf!! shit, my agent got me some choices in secondary market about 1000psf. Also a bit ulu at Tanjong rhu. But one thing though, looking out the unit, i see the Singapore flyer very near also see golf course. Feel very good, maybe because i kena brainwashed by media too much. IR, flyer, IR, flyer. Noisy in this unit because of ECP.
    Santuary green, just next to waterplace, entrance not very immpresive after seeing waterplace. buildings like costel del sol, very HK structures. But i like the second pool facing ECP, very resort like. Saw the unit, wow, again i see the Singapore flyer and golf course, in fact better view than waterplace. Nearer even.
    Overall, all has good and bad. Pls give me some ideas which would you choose?

  10. #10
    Unregistered
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    Thumbs up Re: What makes this property boom different from the past booms?

    Hi,

    Personally I would get either Cote d'Azur or Sanctuary Green.

    Why?

    Cote dazur: next to Parkway Parade. Because of this amenity so close by, demand will always be high. Amberville next door yet to launch. When it does, you can be sure some of its prestige and hig prices wil rub off on Cote.

    Sanctuary Green: 1) Tanjong Rhu is growth location. Prices can only go up from here. Preferred residence for most expats living in the East, the other is Meyer Rd but that is irrelevant cos freehold and twice the prices of Tanjong Rhu.

    2) Likely well-educated and genteel residents. Take a drive around the parking lots. Many continental cars especially the 'yuppie' type such as BMW and Audi, non-modified. That should be a giveaway to the resident profile. Good condo management.


    Not familiar with Melvern Springs and [email protected] so can't comment.

    Water Place: Far East project. Draw your own conclusions. They found it impossible to finish selling before the property boom. Why? Expensive, big units. Really not many people wanted. Sanctuary Green was also in the same situation but at least it is much lower in price.

    Costa Del Sol: generic HK style condo. Meaning it has very little frills, even less gloss. Take a walk around the estate. Facilities are of a low quality and standard. Before the boom, this project was standing in darkness for years - more than half of units were vacant. They had to BEG people to buy.


    Hope my comments were helpful to you.

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