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Thread: Private home prices may have peaked

  1. #1
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    Default Private home prices may have peaked

    http://www.straitstimes.com/PrimeNew...ry_751602.html

    Private home prices may have peaked

    Published on Jan 4, 2012

    By Esther Teo, Property Reporter


    PRIVATE home prices, which have been defying gravity for the past two years, finally seem to be close to their turning point, inching up by just a smidgen in the three months to December.

    Flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday showed prices rising just 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter last year, down from a 1.3 per cent gain the quarter before.

    Experts note that while this brings home prices to a new high, it is the smallest quarterly growth since the market bottomed out in the second quarter of 2009 and could signal that the market has peaked or is close to doing so.

    A series of market cooling measures since September 2009 - most recently last month - global economic uncertainties and a boost in housing supply have provided a check on prices, they add.

    They say a price correction could show up as early as the first quarter's URA price index.

    PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail expects prices to soften further, dipping by 3 per cent to 4 per cent this year.

    He said it is 'very likely' that prices might fall by less than 1 per cent by the first quarter although the bulk of the expected correction will take place in the second half of the year.

    Developers are also expected to be more cautious about buying land, given the abundant upcoming supply with reduced participation and bid prices likely, said Ms Chia Siew Chuin, Colliers International's director of research and advisory. These will be catalysts for price declines.

    DTZ's head of Asia-Pacific research Chua Chor Hoon noted that the luxury segment, which has the largest share of foreigners, is likely to see a greater fall than the mass and mid-market segments.

    Mr Ong Teck Hui, head of research and consultancy at Credo Real Estate, said depending on how the economy plays out and how the housing market performs after Chinese New Year, the price index for the three months to March could show either marginal growth or a mild correction.

    Demand for new private homes could also be trimmed by up to 20 per cent, as some of the demand could be siphoned away by executive condos (EC), said Mr Li Hiaw Ho, executive director of CBRE Research.

    Executive condos are a hybrid of public and private housing. The Government had earlier said that it is ready to supply sites for up to 5,000 EC units through its land sales programme this year.

    'Prices of luxury and prime residential properties may fall by 10 per cent to 15 per cent in 2012, and mass market homes by 5 per cent to 10 per cent,' he added.

    'Separately, landed home prices will likely see a smaller correction of less than 5 per cent since foreigners are generally not allowed to buy and supply is limited.'

    Overall, home prices increased 5.9 per cent last year, well below the 17.6 per cent growth in 2010 as the Government rolled out five rounds of cooling measures, the latest on Dec 8.

    But as with the previous quarter, non-landed suburban homes continued to post the biggest price gain. They rose 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, but this was well down from a 2.1 per cent jump in the three months before.

    ERA Realty key executive officer Eugene Lim said that this could be due to healthy sales at projects like Bedok Residences and The Palette in Pasir Ris.

    There was no change in city fringe home prices which grew 1.2 per cent previously, while city centre home prices were up 0.5 per cent, down from 0.7 per cent before.

    ERA's Mr Lim said the increase in city centre prices might be due to sales at The Scotts Tower and Scotts Square while city fringe prices remained flat due to a lack of large-scale project launches.

    Experts point out that the flash estimates are compiled based on transactions during the first 10 weeks of the quarter, with the Dec 8 cooling measures - which include an additional buyer's stamp duty of 10 per cent for all foreigner home purchases - unlikely to have made an impact on the figures yet.

    The URA also cautioned that past data has shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and actual price changes - updated about four weeks later when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects is captured - could be significant when the change is small.

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    How can future prices continue to remain at today's prices despite yearly inflation of 3% and above? If prices are set to go up due to inflation, how could prices have peaked? lol

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    ....wah! a new version of Cut & Paste.....instead of pasting within thread started...you go on creating new threads with your C&P.....like MacDonald or Seven -eleven....selling same thing(idea) have multiples all within walking distance....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    How can future prices continue to remain at today's prices despite yearly inflation of 3% and above? If prices are set to go up due to inflation, how could prices have peaked? lol
    Not talking about aboslute peak but current peak. Prices always have highs and lows. The next high will likely be higher than the current one...

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    Current peak also partly a result of asset inflation, so future price rises also got to take into consideration inflation.
    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    Not talking about aboslute peak but current peak. Prices always have highs and lows. The next high will likely be higher than the current one...

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    Default Prices have peaked - again ?!

    Hi all,

    If you have been reading newspaper, "Prices Have Peaked!!" appeared nearly every other month after index is announced.

    "Price increase has moderated and blah blah says prices may have peaked" - Feb 2011, Mar 2011, ... Dec 2011.

    Some so-called analysts just want to "appear" on newspaper as part of their self advertising. Thus they make headlines grabbing statements like "Prices will drop 30%!!!"

    DKSG
    Stay Cool & Calm

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    These analysts had also missed the previous boats so they want to dampen current buying sentiment to bring prices down so they can hop onto the bandwagon

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    These analysts had also missed the previous boats so they want to dampen current buying sentiment to bring prices down so they can hop onto the bandwagon

    not rebutting you

    but ... just food for thought ...

    based on current global situation ... if someone keeps shutting BULL BULL BULL and posting nothing but good news ...trying to justify why one should continue to buy ...

    will there be a pool of forumers who would accuse him of ' trying to push prices up to sell ' ???

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    not rebutting you

    but ... just food for thought ...

    based on current global situation ... if someone keeps shutting BULL BULL BULL and posting nothing but good news ...trying to justify why one should continue to buy ...

    will there be a pool of forumers who would accuse him of ' trying to push prices up to sell ' ???

    If the price continue to go up and not soften, will it be good news or is it paving for more drastic CM to come? after seeing Garmen pushing from CM1 to CM5 ....will it be better for the price to soften due to CM5 or for the price to soften due to CM6 which will make the overall CM effect even more drastic?

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    not rebutting you

    but ... just food for thought ...

    based on current global situation ... if someone keeps shutting BULL BULL BULL and posting nothing but good news ...trying to justify why one should continue to buy ...

    will there be a pool of forumers who would accuse him of ' trying to push prices up to sell ' ???
    Actually, there is something call moderation. Prices need NOT to cheong up 20% each year or drop 20%. Prices can remain within tight range of say 5%. In such situations, everyone accuse everyone of trying to talk up or down the market.

    What we are trying to say here is ... "Market is UNLIKELY to go down 20% from now within 2012". AND "Market is also UNLIKELY to go UP by 20% in 2012."

    These statements may sound boring to the press or public but I think (in my opinion) thats a reality.

    Developers are unlikely to sell low (they got holding power and declining land banks). Property owners now also unlikely to sell low (unless they lose their jobs). Always think of what factors you are talking abt when you say prices is going to escalate or decline. Makes the discussion more intelligent.

    DKSG
    Stay Cool and Calm

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    Quote Originally Posted by peterng8
    If the price continue to go up and not soften, will it be good news or is it paving for more drastic CM to come? after seeing Garmen pushing from CM1 to CM5 ....will it be better for the price to soften due to CM5 or for the price to soften due to CM6 which will make the overall CM effect even more drastic?
    I think there is a mis-conception that all the CMs are trying to lower property prices by 20% (or any number you have in mind).

    I think (in my opinion), this is NOT the case. Which government wants to crash their own property market ? Think Think Think! They just want to balance the political expectations of them and not let prices runaway.

    If they have a choice, they will want to mandate ONE selling psf for EACH condo and all buy and sell at the same price. haha!

    Those who think that the gahmen is trying to crash the market to make non-owners happy and allow them to buy cheap. Qi Chiu! Qi Chiu! Qi Chiu!

    DKSG
    Stay Cool and Calm

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    Quote Originally Posted by DKSG
    I think there is a mis-conception that all the CMs are trying to lower property prices by 20% (or any number you have in mind).

    I think (in my opinion), this is NOT the case. Which government wants to crash their own property market ? Think Think Think! They just want to balance the political expectations of them and not let prices runaway.

    If they have a choice, they will want to mandate ONE selling psf for EACH condo and all buy and sell at the same price. haha!

    Those who think that the gahmen is trying to crash the market to make non-owners happy and allow them to buy cheap. Qi Chiu! Qi Chiu! Qi Chiu!

    DKSG
    Stay Cool and Calm
    it is already known that CM is not to crash the market...crash will be a problem..what everyone is tCSS now is how much it will soften...20% for resale? or by how much?


    for eg, since outskirts is hotter in price, we TAKE AN EXAMPLE only of woodlands resale PC, 2008 to begining of 2009 one 3 bedders selling at 480 to 500k ono...2010 to 2011 is asking $800k ono ...if now the asking price down by 20% will it crash let say the sellers bought at 480K at that time? the sellers still smile to the bank but lesser only (assuming finding buyer has no issue now)

    BUt if the price keeps going up even after CM5 ...will CM6 rolls out? the next question is IF there is more CM would it eventually cause more harm to owners than just to moderate price? hence I would rather the price drops now better than more CM which the effect will be more drastic

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    Straits times need to flash news to grab readers' attention and ST writers and editors can earn their decent bonus. LOL

    UNLikely and Likely sounds damn boring.

    REad Taiwan Apple Daily news is so interesting even if it is just garbage news.


    Quote Originally Posted by DKSG
    Actually, there is something call moderation. Prices need NOT to cheong up 20% each year or drop 20%. Prices can remain within tight range of say 5%. In such situations, everyone accuse everyone of trying to talk up or down the market.

    What we are trying to say here is ... "Market is UNLIKELY to go down 20% from now within 2012". AND "Market is also UNLIKELY to go UP by 20% in 2012."

    These statements may sound boring to the press or public but I think (in my opinion) thats a reality.

    Developers are unlikely to sell low (they got holding power and declining land banks). Property owners now also unlikely to sell low (unless they lose their jobs). Always think of what factors you are talking abt when you say prices is going to escalate or decline. Makes the discussion more intelligent.

    DKSG
    Stay Cool and Calm

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    so why our anal-ysts are shouting 30% down? reporters should go back to these anal-ysts for a post-review interview after the release of URA data.

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    Quote Originally Posted by peterng8
    hence I would rather the price drops now better than more CM which the effect will be more drastic
    Just like caspian drop price and everyone cheong. Interesting thoughts!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by rattydrama
    Just like caspian drop price and everyone cheong. Interesting thoughts!!!
    If more Cm comes out ...all die eventually regardless of when u bought...of course those bought high will die more jilat than those bought low...

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    Quote Originally Posted by peterng8
    it is already known that CM is not to crash the market...crash will be a problem..what everyone is tCSS now is how much it will soften...20% for resale? or by how much?


    for eg, since outskirts is hotter in price, we TAKE AN EXAMPLE only of woodlands resale PC, 2008 to begining of 2009 one 3 bedders selling at 480 to 500k ono...2010 to 2011 is asking $800k ono ...if now the asking price down by 20% will it crash let say the sellers bought at 480K at that time? the sellers still smile to the bank but lesser only (assuming finding buyer has no issue now)

    BUt if the price keeps going up even after CM5 ...will CM6 rolls out? the next question is IF there is more CM would it eventually cause more harm to owners than just to moderate price? hence I would rather the price drops now better than more CM which the effect will be more drastic
    if drop, the resale woodland pc no need to sell regardless how cheap they bgt.
    everyone would buy new by then..

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    Quote Originally Posted by peterng8
    BUt if the price keeps going up even after CM5 ...will CM6 rolls out? the next question is IF there is more CM would it eventually cause more harm to owners than just to moderate price? hence I would rather the price drops now better than more CM which the effect will be more drastic
    i would wanna see more sale launches,prices spiked and qssss.

    it's the after-effect that will be interesting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jwong71
    if drop, the resale woodland pc no need to sell regardless how cheap they bgt.
    everyone would buy new by then..

    if at that time, people will also have a choice at other districts why woodlands..yes u have a point besides buy New.. back to the past....that is why mention (assuming no problem finding buyers)

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    Quote Originally Posted by peterng8
    if at that time, people will also have a choice at other districts why woodlands..yes u have a point besides buy New.. back to the past....that is why mention (assuming no problem finding buyers)
    cos buying resale would only make that much etc $100-300 psf,

    buying new + TOP (to buy time) could make $300-500psf..

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    Quote Originally Posted by peterng8
    If more Cm comes out ...all die eventually regardless of when u bought...of course those bought high will die more jilat than those bought low...
    Yes instead of hibernating, all investors in switch-off mode and invest elsewhere. That is the danger.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jwong71
    if drop, the resale woodland pc no need to sell regardless how cheap they bgt.
    everyone would buy new by then..
    in fact less owner will be selling as it will incur immediate lost. Lucky for those people who is buyinng as high chance they will pocket a profit when market turns.

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    Luckily sold mine liao Can sleep better.

    With current outlook, chances of price going lower will be there. Not much upside so might as well sell. Took profit and didn't want to take the risk of holding

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    Quote Originally Posted by JuzMe
    Luckily sold mine liao Can sleep better.

    With current outlook, chances of price going lower will be there. Not much upside so might as well sell. Took profit and didn't want to take the risk of holding
    may stay flat and can only collect rental.........

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    Quote Originally Posted by rattydrama
    in fact less owner will be selling as it will incur immediate lost. Lucky for those people who is buyinng as high chance they will pocket a profit when market turns.
    pity and unlucky to those pple returned units at bedok residences/ new launches etc...
    no profits when market turns

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    Quote Originally Posted by jwong71
    pity and unlucky to those pple returned units at bedok residences/ new launches etc...
    no profits when market turns
    BR was my fav but wrong timing to buy now.......hopefully can have some durians from those faint hearted persons.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rattydrama
    may stay flat and can only collect rental.........
    No regrets selling. Since there's profit already, might as well grab it. With current market, best not to be greedy. My 2 cents. Can sleep very soundly at night

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    Quote Originally Posted by JuzMe
    No regrets selling. Since there's profit already, might as well grab it. With current market, best not to be greedy. My 2 cents. Can sleep very soundly at night
    No harm test market to sell if you more than one pty.. But even after the CM5, I notice some ads even increase their asking price

    I also notice after the CM4, subsale & resale units is getting lesser & lesser. Maybe is due to the "side effect" of the CM4 which buyers who bought after the CM4, will not sell within the next 4-yrs.
    Last edited by Rysk; 07-01-12 at 08:12.

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