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Thread: Property Market Sentiments 2012

  1. #1
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    Default Property Market Sentiments 2012

    It is time to start this yearly thread.

    Just hope that this thread is a better thread with good contributions.

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    So far I think the predictions are mixed. Some say up some say down. For me I think it will most probably be flat, depending on how the current euro crisis develop.


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    Well if its dependent on the Euro crisis, then probably it'll have slight correction coz Euro is unlikely to recover so quickly... its a long road ahead...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    It is time to start this yearly thread.

    Just hope that this thread is a better thread with good contributions.
    Btw thx for starting a 2012 new thread a week ahead of 2012.... Cheers!

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    Generally, property price will tend to go up in land scare singapore....unless worsen economic derail it, which i think is highly to happen in 2012...but that is IMHO

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    All property prices will fall to $0.

    According to the Mayan Calender
    http://mayancalendar2012.org/mayan-calendar-2012.html

    Everyone will perish


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    So fast start new thread? Heh. Wish everyone good health first. And as for predictions. I think we'll see home price flat at at the end of 2012 assuming we don't perish in December. During the year, the price may do a V shape move.

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    Imho, we will not see property crashing in 2012
    But sentiments may get dodgy towards end 2012 though
    Euro should remain cloudy throughout the year while pockets of good news coming from USA side
    Not expecting anymore new CM but some fine tuning to existing ones perhaps
    Commodities and equities to remain volatile while interest rate inching up, especially towards 2013

    Merry Christmas to all !

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    2012 will be a volatile but opportunity year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    2012 will be a volatile but opportunity year.
    Must know when to seize the opportunity.... indeed!

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    That about sums up what to expect for 2012, isn't it?

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    Mr B may be a follower of him or a trader like him.

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    year of the Dragon... Let's all huat huat...

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    Yes huat huat to all irregardless of market

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    Quote Originally Posted by terence
    Yes huat huat to all irregardless of market
    xiang gam tia.

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    i think stock markets will be volatile but property market won't be for 2012.

    more like a slow and gradual slide for ppty mkt in 2012. boring.

    Merry X'mas and a Happy New Year to all!

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    THERE is probably no bubble in Singapore's property market, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said yesterday (25 Jun 2010).

    The sharp price rises that have been seen are 'part of the total liquidity in the whole world system(1)', said Mr Lee, noting that interest rates are low(2), and foreigners still see properties as affordable.

    'Even if we cap our excess, people in Hong Kong, Indonesia, will say, compared to what I have to pay, Singapore is cheap, let's buy it,' he added.

    'And apart from landed properties, they can buy into any condos.'

    1. ECB Stealth QE Euro 489 Billion Money Printing to Prevent Eurozone Banking System Collapse.

    2. MoneyRates.com Interest Rate Forecast: 2011-2012

    January 24th-25th, 2012: 0 to 0.25 percent

    March 13th, 2012: 0 to 0.25 percent

    April 24th-25th, 2012: 0 to 0.25 percent

    June 19th-20th, 2012: 0 to 0.25 percent

    July 31st, 2012: 0.25 percent

    September 12th, 2012: 0.25 percent

    October 23rd-24th, 2012: 0.25 percent

    December 11th, 2012: 0.25 percent

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon
    THERE is probably no bubble in Singapore's property market, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said yesterday (25 Jun 2010).

    The sharp price rises that have been seen are 'part of the total liquidity in the whole world system(1)', said Mr Lee, noting that interest rates are low(2), and foreigners still see properties as affordable.

    'Even if we cap our excess, people in Hong Kong, Indonesia, will say, compared to what I have to pay, Singapore is cheap, let's buy it,' he added.

    'And apart from landed properties, they can buy into any condos.'

    1. ECB Stealth QE Euro 489 Billion Money Printing to Prevent Eurozone Banking System Collapse.

    2. MoneyRates.com Interest Rate Forecast: 2011-2012

    January 24th-25th, 2012: 0 to 0.25 percent

    March 13th, 2012: 0 to 0.25 percent

    April 24th-25th, 2012: 0 to 0.25 percent

    June 19th-20th, 2012: 0 to 0.25 percent

    July 31st, 2012: 0.25 percent

    September 12th, 2012: 0.25 percent

    October 23rd-24th, 2012: 0.25 percent

    December 11th, 2012: 0.25 percent
    but why will they buy your condos in singapore?
    the 10% asd cold hard cash is confirmed sign-off $ for them.
    after that,they still gotta wait another 4yrs to avoid ssd.
    just too many fickle rules n regulations to follow n update..

    just like our taxi system here,too many surcharges implemented constantly.
    Last edited by fiat500; 25-12-11 at 22:02.

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    China's National Social Security fund last week spent CNY 10 billion ($1.6bn) buying domestic-listed shares, according to Shanghai Securities News.


    Singapore's latest national project, Gardens by the Bay, overcame funding difficulties to reach its first milestone on Tuesday with the capping of one of its two giant conservatories, the Flower Dome.

    The project faced rising construction costs when work started in 2007, leading overall cost to increase by more than 10 percent to over S$1 billion.

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    Think for a moment you are a PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) with a million euro in the bank. What will you do?

    Or you are an American? What will you do?

    http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?...e=off;source=;

    http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?...e=off;source=;
    Last edited by Arcachon; 26-12-11 at 00:33.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon
    Think for a moment you are a PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) with a million euro in the bank. What will you do?

    Or you are an American? What will you do?

    http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?...e=off;source=;

    http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?...e=off;source=;
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Un...rescue_package

    http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?...e=off;source=;

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcachon
    1. ECB Stealth QE Euro 489 Billion Money Printing to Prevent Eurozone Banking System Collapse.

    2. MoneyRates.com Interest Rate Forecast: 2011-2012

    January 24th-25th, 2012: 0 to 0.25 percent

    March 13th, 2012: 0 to 0.25 percent

    April 24th-25th, 2012: 0 to 0.25 percent

    June 19th-20th, 2012: 0 to 0.25 percent

    July 31st, 2012: 0.25 percent

    September 12th, 2012: 0.25 percent

    October 23rd-24th, 2012: 0.25 percent

    December 11th, 2012: 0.25 percent
    This is only a forecast. Anything can still go off tangent depending on how Europe works itself out of debt. Going forward, what type of mortgage is preferred? SIBOR or SOR or board rate? Lock in or no lock in?

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    Default Property market outlook for 2012

    By www.MoneyMatters.sg | Property Blog – Mon, Dec 26, 2011


    The additional buyers' stamp duty may be the straw that breaks the camel's back in Singapore's property market. …


    By Mr. Propwise

    As 2011 comes to an end (how time flies!), we polish our crystal ball, take stock of the key takeaways from some of our previous articles, and try and peer into 2012 to see what the new year will bring for the Singapore property market.

    Worrying trends in 2011

    In a previous article Worrying Trends in the Singapore Property Market I highlighted four disturbing trends in the Singapore market:
    1. HDB prices are rising faster than private property prices
    2. Private home buyers are in a cautious mood, especially in the high end segment
    3. Developers are turning cautious too
    4. Investors are going into industrial and commercial properties
    I think these trends are signalling that we are near a turning point in the property bull market. The insiders are turning cautious while the "man on the street" average investors are still rushing in. Middle income families are rushing to buy high-priced HDB flats and mass market residential properties and small-time investors are snapping up "shoebox" industrial units with a fairly ambiguous rental market.

    At the same time the wealthy and developers (the "insiders") are turning cautious on the market, and the weakening global economic situation means that the yields of the industrial and commercial properties could be at risk. Which group do you think has a better grasp of what is going on in the market?

    Property market turning point likely in 2012

    The argument that we are reaching a turning point in the market is also backed up by the eight straight quarters of decelerating growth in the URA's Property Price Index till 3Q11, which is likely due to concern over the slowing economy, worrying global economic situation especially with the troubles in Europe and weak growth in the US, combined with the dampening effect of the government measures.

    We had previously seen this decelerating price growth trend preceding the property bear markets that began in 3Q2000 and 3Q2008 (but not the one in 3Q1996).

    Property consultant and developer Getty Goh is also calling for a property bear market based on his proprietary Ascendant Assets Indicator. To recap, the basic premises of the AAI are (1) there is a lead-lag relationship between the stock and property market and (2) we are able to tell how the property market is performing by analysing the correlation between the stock and property market.

    Based on the URA's 3Q11 numbers the AAI has dropped, indicating a change in market sentiments. Simplistically speaking, we can observe that the URA PPPI index in the yellow zone after each green zone has contracted during the last two cycles (red boxes), and it is probable that it will do so going forward.

    And I believe that the government's recent announcement of the Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. The impact of the ABSD is that the transaction cost for investors will increase substantially, killing investment demand. Thus transaction volumes will fall and prices are likely to be impacted. Foreigners will shrink as a percentage of all buyers, with the impact on the high-end market larger than for the other segments.

    How much will prices fall?

    Beyond just the price movement, we have to worry about things like the large upcoming supply of completed private and public housing that may "flood" the market and global economic uncertainty due to the troubles in the U.S. and Europe.

    So while I'm pretty confident that property prices will not increase significantly (if at all) in 2012, it is much harder to predict the amount of downside in the market. There are also supportive forces in the market, including the current low interest rate environment, and foreign investor perception of Singapore as a "safe haven" to park their money in.

    Thus while we can know with some certainty what the medium term supply is going to look like, the big unknown is demand. Demand is influenced by many factors — market sentiment, unemployment levels, immigration policy of the government, etc. In fact, some analysts have argued that the upcoming surge in supply will not cause property prices to fall. So if you're expecting prices to fall significantly, don't hold your breath as it may not happen.

    Getty Goh thinks that the best-case scenario is that private property prices remain stable while non-residential property prices could still increase, but it is possible in the worst-case scenario for Singapore property prices for all sectors to tank.

    As I have been doing for a while, I caution all investors to study the market carefully before and do your sums before committing your hard earned cash and credit to a property investment. The outlook for 2012 may seem especially uncertain, but for the well-prepared investor, it may be a year of great bargains as well!

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    The author in rather dramatic language talks of how ABSD will break the proverbial camel's back. But remains uncommital as to how much it will break by, and even suggesting the view of some analyst that prices may not come off.

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    I would think commercial and industrial should fall faster than residential, as they are usually more expensive, has lesser years of LH, lower demand due to contraction of economy next year and there is no price floor. Developers and owners holding power are much lower due to the 60 years lease.

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    see popwise's report
    I am not sure anyone in the forum read about this "Property consultant and developer Getty Goh".
    I read his book and I was laughing all the way...

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    My reaction to Mr Propwise' article is...

    "Tell me something I don't already know."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    see popwise's report
    I am not sure anyone in the forum read about this "Property consultant and developer Getty Goh".
    I read his book and I was laughing all the way...
    Good read for comic relief or when you need some cheering up...

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