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Cooling measures bite market segments differently

by Ong Kah Seng

04:45 AM Dec 16, 2011


The year is ending on a sombre note for the private residential market, with severe cooling measures announced earlier this month imposing an additional buyers' stamp duty (ABSD) of 10 per cent on purchases by foreigners.

While prospective buyers, including locals who may be affected by the 3 per cent ABSD, are expected to remain on the sidelines in the next few months, not all private homes will suffer the same impact from the measures.



Landed homes seen resilient

Landed homes will likely be the most unscathed, while speculative products, such as shoebox apartments, will likely experience weakened buying interest. The difference is underpinned by product heterogeneity, foreigners' participation and also the financing capabilities of the buyers' for each product type.

Landed homes are expected to enjoy resilient buying interest next year, as the buyers are predominantly locals who are the least affected by the cooling measures while the supply of such homes is limited. However, non-landed residential properties in the prime districts, which are fairly exclusive, may be more affected as foreigners account for a large share of buyers.



Shoeboxes to be worst hit

Shoebox apartments, particularly those smaller than 500 sq ft each, have gained popularity from 2009 but the success is set to come to a halt next year. There is less motivation to consider buying smaller-sized apartments, particularly when average prices moderate. The typical buyer who finds the shoebox unit acceptable during the price run-up from 2009 to this year may no longer prefer such a home or investment if there are better and larger offerings.

Even before the latest cooling measures were imposed, various developments with shoebox units had been scheduled for completion next year, meaning there will be increased competition between sellers. Although owners will generally hold shoebox units, especially those who had purchased this year and want to avoid paying the hefty sellers' stamp duty, there are some who bought in 2009 and last year who have enjoyed capital appreciation and are considering selling.

Moreover, if a Singaporean can at most hold two private residential properties to avoid paying ABSD for his new purchase, there is less incentive to purchase a smaller-sized apartment. The buyer will likely wish to exercise his limited option on buying a larger or standard-sized unit. There may also be some shoebox home owners who hope to relinquish their units in order to go for more attractive larger sized apartments if prices ease next year.



Suburban condo interest not excessively weakened

The suburban condominium market, with fairly homogenous offerings, will likely see moderated buying interest due to economic challenges. However, as the buyers are mostly HDB upgraders or those owning fewer than two private properties, interest is unlikely to be excessively weakened by the ABSD.

Although the economic slowdown will severely affect job stability, there are still home seekers working in the "evergreen" or fairly recession-proof industries, such as oil and gas, education or statutory boards. They may have continued confidence in financing their homes and appropriately-priced suburban condominiums can appeal to this profile of buyers.

This year has been intense for the private residential market as prices jumped notwithstanding the cooling measures implemented in January that included sellers' stamp duties of as high as 16 per cent. While there is less justification for this month's cooling measures given that economic conditions had moderated late in the year, the latest measures are likely to achieve the best effect in reining optimism in market sentiment.

The dichotomy in the market means that owners of properties which are expected to see weaker buying interest should strive to hold on and emerge from the uncertainty. Property owners can also take a longer-term view by consenting to competitive rental rates, as ultimately there may be opportunities to renew leases at higher rents or even resell at better prices, should the economic and intrinsic property market fundamentals eventually improve.



Ong Kah Seng is a director at R'ST Research, an independent property market research firm in Singapore.