Impact of the ABSD

[Leeds]

in short, the rich do not mind to lose a 100-300k. as long got rental..?

indeed very smart rich one, then i wonder hw they acculmate their wealth through such smartness

People are not born equal. Some are smart, some are smarter. Some are rich, some are even richer. If all smart and/or rich people think alike, then there is no one smarter or richer.

On a more serious note, some rich people (not all) do not need to time their purchase. They buy according to their needs. They do not quite bother about price coming down 20% because they are not going to sell anyway. They will hold and collect rental and in the longer term, they still gain.

On the contrary, many not so rich people will want to time the market because they could not afford to hold when price falls drastically. These are the people likely to miss the boat because they try too hard to time the market. No offend to many such people and probably I am one of them.

[jwong71]

People are not born equal. Some are smart, some are smarter. Some are rich, some are even richer. If all smart and/or rich people think alike, then there is no one smarter or richer.

On a more serious note, some rich people (not all) do not need to time their purchase. They buy according to their needs. They do not quite bother about price coming down 20% because they are not going to sell anyway. They will hold and collect rental and in the longer term, they still gain.

On the contrary, many not so rich people will want to time the market because they could not afford to hold when price falls drastically. These are the people likely to miss the boat because they try too hard to time the market. No offend to many such people and probably I am one of them.

rich do not time their purchase,

but this time is different,

when HEADLINES is that big!! All will time their purchase

message from the govt is so loud and clear..

why need to time the market, coz this time round is known as wait for the market..

[jwong71]

when there's no big news, they wait = time(pure guessing) the market,

when there's big news, they wait = wait for the market. (to max out the profits)

ok

[ysyap]

when there's no big news, they wait = time(pure guessing) the market,

when there's big news, they wait = wait for the market. (to max out the profits)

ok

Army lingo... rush to wait, wait to rush...

[radha08]

will buy, if prices dive.

lately on the street talks, pple are waiting for 2012. for prices to dive down.

so if Mr A wanna buy a property now, Mr B will tell him to wait for 2012.
in 2012 drop by 10%, Mr C will tell him to wait for 20%.
if drop by 20%, Mr D will tell him to wait for 30%...

心理学

thats what happened in early 2009...

[blackjack21trader]

yeah

cm5 is to protect our beloved foreigners!!!

sad to hear more singkies entering the market even after cm5......zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

come on la, brother devilplate. You really meant to say protect Singaporean. Write too fast.

[jwong71]

thats what happened in early 2009...

to be exact, from 2008.. last til 2009 march.

until alexis and few condos launched in feb onwards, wf good sales
restored market confidence.. leading the rebounce

[jwong71]

to be exact, from 2008.. last til 2009 march.

until alexis and few condos launched in feb onwards, wf good sales
restored market confidence.. leading the rebounce

this time with double dip possibilities, eu breakdown, hk/china property prices drop

more CMs on the cards, to address to GE issues, need to makeup and gain back votes etc..

totally killed off confidence

[samsara]

Killing off confidence... that's what some people are working overtime on lately.

this time with double dip possibilities, eu breakdown, hk/china property prices drop

more CMs on the cards, to address to GE issues, need to makeup and gain back votes etc..

totally killed off confidence

[jwong71]

Killing off confidence... that's what some people are working overtime on lately.

siao onz, to safeguard their job..??

[Allthepies]

After pondering hard for several days and nights, I finally see the light of the latest CM!

our government indeed has excellent foresight/friend. the CM is like what our brother blackjack has said, it is meant to protect ALL Singaporeans from the damage that is to come 2013. well done!!!

[jwong71]

After pondering hard for several days and nights, I finally see the light of the latest CM!

our government indeed has excellent foresight/friend. the CM is like what our brother blackjack has said, it is meant to protect ALL Singaporeans from the damage that is to come 2013. well done!!!

after pondering few days.. any classic story too..??
i wanna hear story le.

protect sgporeans to speculate..? or prevent crisis hit hard..?

[Allthepies]

after pondering few days.. any classic story too..??
i wanna hear story le.

protect sgporeans to speculate..? or prevent crisis hit hard..?

the target is not Singapore, but collateral damage will be great.. so CM to hopefully reduce the collateral damage

it's the fight between the 2 titans....

[Lovelle]

just negotiated for 20% increase of rental

[DC33_2008]

Congrats. Seal the deal by signing the agreement and e-stamping it quickly. Just done mine this morning w/o agent.

just negotiated for 20% increase of rental

[hyenergix]

Congrats. Seal the deal by signing the agreement and e-stamping it quickly. Just done mine this morning w/o agent.

What if the tenant wants to terminate the lease early? Just have to give a few months notice right?

[minority]

hdb px may not crash so easily..at most correct abit nia.....

its condo tat will suffer big crash....zzzzzzzzzz

u see more foreigners will stop looking to buy liao.....they will go apply PR....once they got PR, they can actually look at resale HDB instead of condo

Buy HDB from Singaporean then Singaporean go upgrade buy condo!.. So its ok!

[blackjack21trader]

After pondering hard for several days and nights, I finally see the light of the latest CM!

our government indeed has excellent foresight/friend. the CM is like what our brother blackjack has said, it is meant to protect ALL Singaporeans from the damage that is to come 2013. well done!!!

so did you also meet the same morning bird which told me this ? Woahahahaha

But seriously, because of the lower interest rates, foreigners who come here to work wants to buy instead of rent before CM5. They may not be here for long term, more like medium terms ones also want a piece of our property pie. Then who wants to rent in our rental markets? somemore they will definately sell once their employment contracts expire.

Our government is quick to see this.Which government in the World is so worldclass?

And indeed CM5 is a really good move to protect not only Singaporean home buyers but landlords also.

[blackjack21trader]

so did you also meet the same morning bird which told me this ? Woahahahaha

But seriously, because of the lower interest rates, foreigners who come here to work wants to buy instead of rent before CM5. They may not be here for long term, more like medium terms ones also want a piece of our property pie. Then who wants to rent in our rental markets? somemore they will definately sell once their employment contracts expire.

Our government is quick to see this.Which government in the World is so worldclass?

And indeed CM5 is a really good move to protect not only Singaporean home buyers but landlords also.

The danger sign will emerge once those seemingly uninterested in our property market foreigners also start to take up a loan to buy our property; without any intention of becoming PR or Singaporean. once they leave their job and start to unwind their loans, even our banks will suffer. this category is the borderline ones, with monthly income of maybe S$7,000.

[devilplate]

The danger sign will emerge once those seemingly uninterested in our property market foreigners also start to take up a loan to buy our property; without any intention of becoming PR or Singaporean.

Dun nid to dream foreigner will invest liao la

Only 2 scenario they will buy.....px drop more den let say 20% and or cm5 removed....

Px crash.....cm5 lifted....foreigners buy again......who lose? Snkies lor....give up their ppty at a loss to foreigners.....

[jwong71]

so did you also meet the same morning bird which told me this ? Woahahahaha

But seriously, because of the lower interest rates, foreigners who come here to work wants to buy instead of rent before CM5. They may not be here for long term, more like medium terms ones also want a piece of our property pie. Then who wants to rent in our rental markets? somemore they will definately sell once their employment contracts expire.

Our government is quick to see this.Which government in the World is so worldclass?

And indeed CM5 is a really good move to protect not only Singaporean home buyers but landlords also.

Yes more CMs to protect us plsssss

[dmonddd]

Dubai is different from Singapore?
gahmen CM5 prevent this?


Stricken Dubai prices 'to crash 30 per cent'
By MAIL ON SUNDAY REPORTER
Last updated at 4:10 PM on 30th November 2009

Comments (0)
Share

Dubai's property market could plummet by up to 30 per cent from current levels - already down 50 per cent from peak - and may take more than a decade to recover, a senior real estate analyst warned this weekend, writes Abul Tahir.
His warning came as it was revealed that Dubai is in danger of defaulting on its debt of more than £48billion.
The main cause of the debt is Dubai World, the stateowned port operator and real estate holding company, believed to have liabilities exceeding £36billion.

Oversupply: Dubai is experiencing an exodus of foreigners
Saud Masud, a real estate analyst for UBS based in Dubai, predicts property prices will fall by up to 30 per cent in the next few months.
He forecast..........


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/...#ixzz1gVM4M8d1

[avo7007]

Dubai is different from Singapore?
gahmen CM5 prevent this?

Dubai has more similarities to Iskandar IMHO. They share the same philosophy of "Build it and they will come"

[dmonddd]

not so much on characteristics of projects

am talking about will Singapore be like dubai if foreigners run when market
tanks

[peterng8]

CAN the Analyst be TRUSTED?

resale mARKET IS expected to be dead meat ...


Analysts expect property prices to soften in 2012

The Singapore private residential property market was hit with two rounds of cooling measures in 2011 – moves widely described by analysts as harsh.
Coupled with an expected slowdown in the global economy, home-buying decisions may stall in 2012.
And developers may also roll out more incentives to prop up sales.
Despite the uncertain economic outlook in 2011, home-buying interest remained healthy judging by the long queues at recent property launches.
Analysts expect new private homes sales to hit a total of 15,000 to 16,000 units this year, compared to nearly 16,300 units sold in 2010.
Next year, crowds at property launches could get thinner as weak economic sentiment undermines the confidence people have in keeping their jobs.
Sales volume for 2012 is likely to dip further to under 14,000 units for the whole year.
Dr Chua Yang Liang, Research Head, Jones Lang LaSalle, said: “If the transaction volumes were to declined and sustained into 2012, then prices are expected to be affected. From our forecast we think possibly between 10 to 15 percent on the downside.”
Analysts say there is no chance of recovery for high-end property next year, with prices likely to slide 20 per cent.
The sale of high-end units was already lacklustre before the government imposed an Additional Buyers’ Stamp duty in December, which will further dampen demand from foreigners.
Market watchers expect some diversion of investor interest from residential, to other real estate including office and strata industrial properties.
Meanwhile, the cheaper home loans and genuine latent occupier demand are expected to continue to drive the mass market home segment.
However, prices for such homes could see a downward correction of about 10 per cent next year
To mitigate the impact of the cooling measures, experts say developers are likely to dangle a carrot in front of home buyers.
Chia Siew Chuin, Director, Research & Advisory, Colliers International, said: “They may have to even align their prices to move the sales or even look at incentives, soft sale kind of measures, probably extending rebates in the sense of discounts or even absorbing stamp duty on behalf of buyers or extending other kinds of incentives not only to buyers but also to agents to help them move sales.”
Developers will also continue to launch new projects, especially those in the suburban areas.
Donald Han, Vice Chairman, Cushman & Wakefied, said: “We will continue to see more launches coming up for mass market, mainly because the government sales of sites that have been launched in the last 24 months…a record number of over 20 sites will have to come into the market. They (the developers) have to do it now as these are on 99-year leases, unlike the high-end or mid-end projects which are traditionally freehold projects having a longer tenure life.”
Analysts say developers will also be more measured in their land bids next year, and prices for sites that are less attractive could dip by some 10 to 12 per cent.

[avo7007]

will Singapore be like dubai if foreigners run when market
tanks

I don't think so. If you look at the private pty mkt alone, Singapore's ratio of foreign vs local holdings is like 3:7 but Dubai's is something like 8:2. So when foreign investor flee Singapore, the impact will be smaller than Dubai's.

[Wild Falcon]

That is why the ABSD is targeted at the foreigners speculating in our property market. Because no matter what, the Singaporeans and PRs will call Singapore home and even in a crisis, we are unlikely to sell everything and disappear. But these foreigners (non PR) don't even stay here. They merely speculate in property and will be the first to run away at the first sign of trouble. It is already worrisome that these foreigners (mainly PRCs) are already buying up >40% of our luxury property which means it's already a big bubble, despite the lacklustre performance.

not so much on characteristics of projects

am talking about will Singapore be like dubai if foreigners run when market
tanks

[dmonddd]

I don't think so. If you look at the private pty mkt alone, Singapore's ratio of foreign vs local holdings is like 3:7 but Dubai's is something like 8:2. So when foreign investor flee Singapore, the impact will be smaller than Dubai's.

Prices up due to demand from who? locals /foreigners for own stay or rent out

if locals are not borrowing - not alarming.
Are locals borrowing because of low interest rates? LTV 60% - doesn't matter. if interest rates double, what would be the impact

unemployment is another driver as some quoted.... does local holdings help in a speculative market? Are we in a speculative market?

with the ABSD....would this start to filter the investors local and foreign.
HK investors have started deleveraging.

[dmonddd]

My neighbour is FT Indian who are now PR.
They are still renting the unit cos they said it was too expensive to buy.
Now with the CM, if prices dive, they may buy a unit rather than continue with the rental.

second to that...alot of FTs my colleagues share the same thoughts

prices are too high they claimed...
secondly they want to make $$ here and go back home to retire
even my senior mgmt FT they have plenty of investment properties back home. they either rent/buy 1 only. rest of their salary repatriated back to homeland. Now with rupees weakened so much...they are sending $$$ home.

some forumers are retirees or housewives who are disconnected from real world

thought that they can now speculate and rent when complete ..what if there's no demand esp. with the unemployment rate/layoffs increasing
anyway demand will come back but during the slowdown...cashflow sustainability

buying is not a problem...downpayment...the part that kills is the cashflow.

[radha08]

Dubai has more similarities to Iskandar IMHO. They share the same philosophy of "Build it and they will come"

same kinda people..