December 8, 2011, 5.04 pm (Singapore time)

Daiwa sees home prices falling 22-26% from end-2011 to end-2014


Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co Ltd on Thursday issued a negative call on the Singapore residential property segment, forecasting that home prices are likely to fall by 22 to 26 per cent from end-2011 to end-2014.

Daiwa's analysts David Lum and Tony Darwell stated that the government's new round of cooling measures include a 'potentially punitive additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) of 10 per cent'. In addition, government has announced that its land sales programme will make available another 14,100 units in first half of 2012.

The analysts believe the ABSD will reduce excessive investment demand in the residential-property market.

'In view of the more uncertain economic outlook and the implementation of the ABSD, which alone could send an immediate chill through the market, especially at the high-end segment, another robust government land sales programme for first half of 2012 only increases the risk of rising unsold inventory in the presale market and rising vacancies when a potential glut of GLS projects are completed eventually,' Mr Lum and Mr Darwell said.

They also forecast a prolonged downturn in home prices.