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Thread: Bleak Outlook for Singapore property

  1. #1
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    Default Bleak Outlook for Singapore property

    This is the beginning of the end of easy money that people were making by just blindly buying property

    http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...ign=news-daily

    Its time for the cautious ones amongst us who held back, to celebrate

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    Quote Originally Posted by revhappy
    This is the beginning of the end of easy money that people were making by just blindly buying property

    http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...ign=news-daily

    Its time for the cautious ones amongst us who held back, to celebrate
    yeah : ) wonder when will ssd and 40% downpayment rule be removed so that i can buy more? yeah yeah

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    Quote Originally Posted by Allthepies
    yeah : ) wonder when will ssd and 40% downpayment rule be removed so that i can buy more? yeah yeah
    Yeah....I also want to buy!
    But very important..... waiting for COE to fall too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by buttercarp
    Yeah....I also want to buy!
    But very important..... waiting for COE to fall too.
    Noticed you've mentioned COE many many times liao... u can consider 2nd hand car lor... 3 to 4 year old should be decent lah.

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    Quote Originally Posted by revhappy
    This is the beginning of the end of easy money that people were making by just blindly buying property

    http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...ign=news-daily

    Its time for the cautious ones amongst us who held back, to celebrate
    Not celebrating yet until prices really fall 30%. Also not very good if investors are holding depreciating properties... Anyway, yes looking to buy too. Join the queue liao!

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    The guy who wrote the article is another Mr B who missed many boats . He fail to take into consideration foreign immigration figures. As I have said before, you can have 100k new homes but what is that compared to another 1.5 million foreigners settling here in the next few years?

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    Quote Originally Posted by revhappy
    This is the beginning of the end of easy money that people were making by just blindly buying property

    http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/prope...ign=news-daily

    Its time for the cautious ones amongst us who held back, to celebrate
    u have good foresight indeed..
    next round will be your turn for the easy $$$.
    tell us which properties are u aiming for n @ what price will u be making your entry?
    i am sure u have ready plans?

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    Imagine Bedok Residences firesale at 30% discount: e.g. $700k for 1+1 becomes $490k. It won't happen unless the interest rate sudden spikes up or there is an epidemic (notice it usually strikes during recessions). The banks that issue the reports have an agenda. In any case, increase your cash buffer.

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    Politically, the PAP government will want to make sure property prices remain affordable. LKY had mentioned that one of the reason why the party did poorly in the last GE was because property prices were too high and people were not happy. By the next GE, the government will be doing whatever it takes to make sure property prices are not at the same level as in 2011. If not, the ruling party will be dead duck.

    So, all the policies will be calibrated to ensure property prices will not be at 2011 level. This is evident with the ample supply of BTO flats at lower prices and the release of more state lands. The strategy is to make sure that new BTO flats prices are controlled and this will affect the mass market private flats.

    By taking this approve, the government is not rocking the boat and will be taking a longer time to tame the market. As KBW said before, by the next GE, prices will be moderated. So it will take this long to be there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds
    Politically, the PAP government will want to make sure property prices remain affordable. LKY had mentioned that one of the reason why the party did poorly in the last GE was because property prices were too high and people were not happy. By the next GE, the government will be doing whatever it takes to make sure property prices are not at the same level as in 2011. If not, the ruling party will be dead duck.

    So, all the policies will be calibrated to ensure property prices will not be at 2011 level. This is evident with the ample supply of BTO flats at lower prices and the release of more state lands. The strategy is to make sure that new BTO flats prices are controlled and this will affect the mass market private flats.

    By taking this approve, the government is not rocking the boat and will be taking a longer time to tame the market. As KBW said before, by the next GE, prices will be moderated. So it will take this long to be there.
    Therein lies the intricacies and sensitivities of KBW's portfolio. He also cannot bring property prices down simply because there will be too many repurcussions. He will probably just ensure that 2016 prices will not escalate too much from 2011 prices. Bringing prices down, as he's mentioned before is certainly not the solution.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds
    Politically, the PAP government will want to make sure property prices remain affordable. LKY had mentioned that one of the reason why the party did poorly in the last GE was because property prices were too high and people were not happy. By the next GE, the government will be doing whatever it takes to make sure property prices are not at the same level as in 2011. If not, the ruling party will be dead duck.

    So, all the policies will be calibrated to ensure property prices will not be at 2011 level. This is evident with the ample supply of BTO flats at lower prices and the release of more state lands. The strategy is to make sure that new BTO flats prices are controlled and this will affect the mass market private flats.

    By taking this approve, the government is not rocking the boat and will be taking a longer time to tame the market. As KBW said before, by the next GE, prices will be moderated. So it will take this long to be there.
    80%+ living in HDB. Most likely last GE its the CMs+ increasing FT thats killing their votes. They should impose additional capital gain tax for PR selling HDB. PR getting same privileges as citizen is not healthy. BTO sold last two years will need +2 years to build +5 years MOP before selling in open market? How many HDB we built last 10 years? How many additional PRs during that period? As rental increases, renting PRs will be looking to purchase a flat since borrowing cost is cheap...

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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    Therein lies the intricacies and sensitivities of KBW's portfolio. He also cannot bring property prices down simply because there will be too many repurcussions. He will probably just ensure that 2016 prices will not escalate too much from 2011 prices. Bringing prices down, as he's mentioned before is certainly not the solution.
    That will depend on what is consider affordable. Certainly, May 2011 prices were not considered "affordable" given the GE results. As such, it is very likely that 2016 prices will be lower than 2011. This need to be the case or the ruling party will still be beaten over in 2016.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds
    That will depend on what is consider affordable. Certainly, May 2011 prices were not considered "affordable" given the GE results. As such, it is very likely that 2016 prices will be lower than 2011. This need to be the case or the ruling party will still be beaten over in 2016.
    Well if KBW can achieve that without stirring too much repurcussions, then good job. He'll get his promotion soon. Remember MBT got the boot and not promotion? Our Jan CM merely caused property price rise to be more steady and predictable, not bring prices down, which was what KBW also acknowledged. He said CM was successful. His idea was not to bring prices down. That's the job of the recession, not the govt... LOL!

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    Quote Originally Posted by chengerh
    80%+ living in HDB. Most likely last GE its the CMs+ increasing FT thats killing their votes. They should impose additional capital gain tax for PR selling HDB. PR getting same privileges as citizen is not healthy. BTO sold last two years will need +2 years to build +5 years MOP before selling in open market? How many HDB we built last 10 years? How many additional PRs during that period? As rental increases, renting PRs will be looking to purchase a flat since borrowing cost is cheap...
    crouching tiger, hidden dragon

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    They key remains the immigration floodgate. If population stagnates at 5.2 m, prices will eventually fall given the construction bloom.

    Govt has also not disclosed their ideal population size since the GE results. LHL was deliberately vague when questioned. Is it 5.5m as LKY thinks it should be (read his book), or the 6.5m of MBT?

    I believe the eventual size for the next 10 to 15 years will be 5.5m as LKY's thinking gains influence after the GE results. A population size of 6.5m will mean foreigners outnumber citizens in our tiny island, which is surely not tenable politically.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds
    That will depend on what is consider affordable. Certainly, May 2011 prices were not considered "affordable" given the GE results. As such, it is very likely that 2016 prices will be lower than 2011. This need to be the case or the ruling party will still be beaten over in 2016.
    kbw just need to make flat px stagnant for the next 5yrs....5yrs later current ppty px will be acceptable......BUT so far it isnt working.....perhaps EU crisis will help later?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    Well if KBW can achieve that without stirring too much repurcussions, then good job. He'll get his promotion soon. Remember MBT got the boot and not promotion? Our Jan CM merely caused property price rise to be more steady and predictable, not bring prices down, which was what KBW also acknowledged. He said CM was successful. His idea was not to bring prices down. That's the job of the recession, not the govt... LOL!
    his CM? tot all CMs belong to MBT?

    and in fact, CMs only works on the pte segment BUT not the HDBs....ZZzzzzz

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    Chiao ka peng ahhhh!
    If 2016 property prices below 2011 prices, they will only please <10% voters voting for them with hands & feets (which are useless since only <10% votes) vs the rest of >90% voters voting them out! You think they can't count or they are that stupid?

    They get less votes more because don't heed citizens complaints on:
    1) roads too jammed (never bother to expand roads despite increasing so many COEs)
    2) public transport too crowded until cannot get on the bus and train and have to wait for a few subsequent ones (again, never plan ahead to expand the capacity due to influx of foreigners)
    3) New HDB flats too expensive (resale HDB flats expensive is actually GOOD because citizens selling to PRs and make profits, if don't sell appreciating assets also shiok (can downgrade to small studio unit in future with CASH on hand for comfortable retirement), so happy will vote PAP mah!)
    4) Too many PRs and PRs getting almost same privilege as citizens, then who want to convert to Singapore citizens?
    5) Citizens' Kids can't get into their desired schools, crowded out by PRs' kids!
    6) MPs & some ministers too arrogant, saying think like without them, your wifes will become maids in other countries, your husbands will become construction workers in other countries!
    7) They lose many votes because of the stupid cooling measures! They make the >90% voters' & property owners perceive that the govt is trying to make their property assets drop and lose value!!! After that, they still didn't solve the problem that NEW HDB flats (those DBSS, BTO etc) are so expensive! (Remember, citizens want RESALE HDB flats to be expensive, but NEW HDB flats to be cheap!)

    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds
    That will depend on what is consider affordable. Certainly, May 2011 prices were not considered "affordable" given the GE results. As such, it is very likely that 2016 prices will be lower than 2011. This need to be the case or the ruling party will still be beaten over in 2016.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    3) New HDB flats too expensive (resale HDB flats expensive is actually GOOD because citizens selling to PRs and make profits, if don't sell appreciating assets also shiok (can downgrade to small studio unit in future with CASH on hand for comfortable retirement), so happy will vote PAP mah!)
    disagree wif this point....

    bto flats definitely affordable.....
    THEY WANT mao shan wang durian but govt give them a banana!

    whahahhahaha

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Chiao ka peng ahhhh!
    If 2016 property prices below 2011 prices, they will only please <10% voters voting for them with hands & feets (which are useless since only <10% votes) vs the rest of >90% voters voting them out! You think they can't count or they are that stupid?

    They get less votes more because don't heed citizens complaints on:
    1) roads too jammed (never bother to expand roads despite increasing so many COEs)
    2) public transport too crowded until cannot get on the bus and train and have to wait for a few subsequent ones (again, never plan ahead to expand the capacity due to influx of foreigners)
    3) New HDB flats too expensive (resale HDB flats expensive is actually GOOD because citizens selling to PRs and make profits, if don't sell appreciating assets also shiok (can downgrade to small studio unit in future with CASH on hand for comfortable retirement), so happy will vote PAP mah!)
    4) Too many PRs and PRs getting almost same privilege as citizens, then who want to convert to Singapore citizens?
    5) Citizens' Kids can't get into their desired schools, crowded out by PRs' kids!
    6) MPs & some ministers too arrogant, saying think like without them, your wifes will become maids in other countries, your husbands will become construction workers in other countries!
    7) They lose many votes because of the stupid cooling measures! They make the >90% voters' & property owners perceive that the govt is trying to make their property assets drop and lose value!!! After that, they still didn't solve the problem that NEW HDB flats (those DBSS, BTO etc) are so expensive! (Remember, citizens want RESALE HDB flats to be expensive, but NEW HDB flats to be cheap!)

    so if LHL wants to win back Aljunied ...

    do you think he will have to tackle your above 7 points ?

    if yes ?
    how do u thing he will do it ?

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    Expensive (in their opinion) lah!
    You know what they want? I know (received many such feedbacks). In a way, you are right. To say it in layman terms, this is what they want :-
    They want Bukit Merah NEW 5rm HDB flats at $300k, not Woodlands, Yishun, or Sengkang at $300k!

    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    disagree wif this point....

    bto flats definitely affordable.....
    THEY WANT mao shan wang durian but govt give them a banana!

    whahahhahaha

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    Population (especially working force) must increase given a fast aging group of people .. how else can u compete with Shanghai who has 24 million people and Bombay having 12 millions? Ok infra is not so good in India yet .. but beware that high speed trains are already in China/Taiwan

    Don't believe in the media, be it local or foreign, visit India, China, Vietnam yourself to see where the growth is .... take the high speed train in China, look the high rise condos at Suzhou, feel the chaotic Hanoi, the optimism in Shanghai, the luxurious hotels in India and the textile boom in Bangladesh

    Don't become 井底之蛙
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Pay me $3.8m a year and I will solve the problem.
    Otherwise, it is none of my problem!

    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    so if LHL wants to win back Aljunied ...

    do you think he will have to tackle your above 7 points ?

    if yes ?
    how do u thing he will do it ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    Well if KBW can achieve that without stirring too much repurcussions, then good job. He'll get his promotion soon. Remember MBT got the boot and not promotion? Our Jan CM merely caused property price rise to be more steady and predictable, not bring prices down, which was what KBW also acknowledged. He said CM was successful. His idea was not to bring prices down. That's the job of the recession, not the govt... LOL!
    By and large, MBT's idea of high property prices was not a bad one because you buy high and you also sell high. The problem MBT did not address was first timers who could not afford the high prices.

    KBW is trying to succeed what MBT had failed in this aspect. So BTO flats will be affordable or cheaper going forward. This in turn will affect mass market prices.

    On a macro level, the government will need to consider whether Singaporeans are spending too much of their incomes on housing? We all understand that the government has a vested interest in wanting Singaporeans to invest in Singapore with their CPF savings. This will continue to be the case. As such, it is not the government intent to have prices at deep low. The simple plan is to have affordrable flats for first timers which will also affect mass market prices. Upgaders may also find upgrading affordable since the base BTO flats prices are now controlled.

    Recession will be painful and prices will fall drastically which the government is not likely to be able to control falling prices. With possible economic slow down over the next 2 years, KBW will not likely to take any drastic short term measure to control prices.

    The only possible measure KBW may take is to reduce foreign ownerships which is rising at uncomfortable rate. He mentioned this before and MND is motoring the take up rate by foreigners very closely.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Pay me $3.8m a year and I will solve the problem.
    Otherwise, it is none of my problem!



    i knew i would learn nothing from this forum

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    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds
    By and large, MBT's idea of high property prices was not a bad one because you buy high and you also sell high. The problem MBT did not address was first timers who could not afford the high prices.

    KBW is trying to succeed what MBT had failed in this aspect. So BTO flats will be affordable or cheaper going forward. This in turn will affect mass market prices.

    On a macro level, the government will need to consider whether Singaporeans are spending too much of their incomes on housing? We all understand that the government has a vested interest in wanting Singaporeans to invest in Singapore with their CPF savings. This will continue to be the case. As such, it is not the government intent to have prices at deep low. The simple plan is to have affordrable flats for first timers which will also affect mass market prices. Upgaders may also find upgrading affordable since the base BTO flats prices are now controlled.

    Recession will be painful and prices will fall drastically which the government is not likely to be able to control falling prices. With possible economic slow down over the next 2 years, KBW will not likely to take any drastic short term measure to control prices.

    The only possible measure KBW may take is to reduce foreign ownerships which is rising at uncomfortable rate. He mentioned this before and MND is motoring the take up rate by foreigners very closely.


    so KBW is playing politics while in politics ...

    he knew what the problems were and he knew how to tackle it ..

    but at that time, it was not his ministry .. so he bochup ... let MBT die
    indirectly victimising the general public ..

    is he selfish ? or smart ?

    is this what we want in out govt ?

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    Launching BTOs at super-ulu location is not a solution .. they must mix and match to give people a choice, otherwise every project under-subscribed. HDB resale price seems to stabilize for now due to Europe crisis.

    Suzhou industrial park near the Jin Ji Lake:



    The high speed train terminal at SuZhou, only 30mins to Shanghai:

    Last edited by phantom_opera; 29-11-11 at 08:59.
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    My solution is very simple:
    - Make new HDB flats cheap (because the price of land at cost is so cheap! About $0.80 psf! I know I know because they acquired 25 hectares at $0.80 psf from my family!).
    - Build more HDB flats in central areas and sell cheap! Increase plot ratio of all properties around MRT stations and enbloc them to build more HDB flats!
    - Make HDB resale prices expensive! (please that 80% of citizens owning HDB flats)!
    - Leave private to market forces (mostly rich citizens & PRs buying away)!
    - Attract more foreigners to Singapore to work & settle down in Singapore, especially the rich! Create more high-end jobs servicing the rich, all citizens get richer, their resale HDB flats keep going up because sell to foreigners (i.e. PRs)!
    - We need a population of 12m in order to have self-sustainable SERVICE sector making up >60% GDP! By then, Singapore economy will be less reliant on export and will be more stable going forward! (obviously, to have SERVICE sector >70% GDP, we need say 18m?).

    In fact, the govt unconsciously have been doing that in the past, but they lost direction after that!

    Quote Originally Posted by Leeds
    By and large, MBT's idea of high property prices was not a bad one because you buy high and you also sell high. The problem MBT did not address was first timers who could not afford the high prices.

    KBW is trying to succeed what MBT had failed in this aspect. So BTO flats will be affordable or cheaper going forward. This in turn will affect mass market prices.

    On a macro level, the government will need to consider whether Singaporeans are spending too much of their incomes on housing? We all understand that the government has a vested interest in wanting Singaporeans to invest in Singapore with their CPF savings. This will continue to be the case. As such, it is not the government intent to have prices at deep low. The simple plan is to have affordrable flats for first timers which will also affect mass market prices. Upgaders may also find upgrading affordable since the base BTO flats prices are now controlled.

    Recession will be painful and prices will fall drastically which the government is not likely to be able to control falling prices. With possible economic slow down over the next 2 years, KBW will not likely to take any drastic short term measure to control prices.

    The only possible measure KBW may take is to reduce foreign ownerships which is rising at uncomfortable rate. He mentioned this before and MND is motoring the take up rate by foreigners very closely.

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    i knew i would learn nothing from this forum
    ur motivation of coming here is not to learn but to be a contrarian rite?

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