View Poll Results: % drop in 24 mths, using PPI

Voters
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  • 10%

    39 32.50%
  • 20%

    32 26.67%
  • 30%

    15 12.50%
  • 40%

    2 1.67%
  • 50% and more

    4 3.33%
  • cut lost n get out at 30% drop

    2 1.67%
  • Dead fish, 5% flucation

    30 25.00%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Thread: How much drop do u expect in next 24 mths

  1. #1
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    Default How much drop do u expect in next 24 mths

    hi pple,

    hope this thread encourages more free flow of data that are both negative n positive.

    Also feel free to share which district u are aiming and at what range if its drops to your target entry. Any form of prediction should be welcome and please share y u feel that way. Any sharing of interesting articles to back up claim is most welcomed. Any names calling is not encouraged. Thanks
    Last edited by DaytonaSS; 20-11-11 at 22:05.

  2. #2
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    No data from me obviously, just a guess. 10-15% correction tops (in particular those insanely overpriced projects)... So better faster jump on to the boat of those already TOP projects with reasonable prices and rent out to secure passive extra income stream. Coz in 24mths there will be whole lot more competition...

  3. #3
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    recently went to see MPR, very shiok swimming pool and building facing. If it really drop to $1400 psf for high floor unit, die die squeeze out some $$$ or find 1 solid partner to go in together.

    if Europe turns really bad and US continues to talk only no result, i think the drop for OCR PPI could be in the region of 20%. This should be accompanied if interest rate hit in 2013 to 4%. Between now n then, if liquidity dries up, the chances of US printing another tranch is possible in my opinion. Thus it should keep our interest rate low as our rates are usually tied to US. feel free to point out any flaw in my thinking.

  4. #4
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    Why suddenly so pessimistic?
    Your poll does not include those who think there isn't going to be a drop.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by buttercarp
    Why suddenly so pessimistic?
    Your poll does not include those who think there isn't going to be a drop.
    last one lor, dead fish. i think market also need a breather if it doesnt correct abit. chong alot liao loh.

    sentiments not too strong now ma....

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcmlxxvi
    No data from me obviously, just a guess. 10-15% correction tops (in particular those insanely overpriced projects)...
    not wanting to irritate anyone or start OCR vs CCR debate, can name 1 or 2 u feel is insanely overpriced project?

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaytonaSS
    last one lor, dead fish. i think market also need a breather if it doesnt correct abit. chong alot liao loh.

    sentiments not too strong now ma....
    Oh.... ok, so that is what it means.
    When I saw the word dead fish, I thought of some form of handshake.......

  8. #8
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    super yesterday news, but i think Singapore still is very much relevant in Asean countries and many companies are continue to set up offices here to tap the growth region for next decade


    US senator urges Obama to sign FTA with ASEAN


    Updated on:Thursday, Jun 30, 2011 http://www.siiaonline.org/?q=files/i...-r-indiana.jpg


    United States senator Richard G. Lugar, Republican Leader of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has introduced legislation encouraging the Obama administration to start Free Trade Agreement (FTA) talks with ASEAN.


    Lugar said US passivity on this front sends the wrong message to ASEAN, which collectively represents the fourth-largest and fastest-growing export market for the US. The US is also a major importer of ASEAN goods.



    In a statement, Lugar warned "the reluctance of the Obama Administration to signal its commitment to developing a strategy for pursuing an FTA with ASEAN suggests to ASEAN leaders that they should first look to China, India and elsewhere for comprehensive trade interaction."
    Report: Lugar urges US-Asean FTA negotiations [The Nation, 30 June 2011]


    Lugar introduced similar non-binding legislation two years ago, calling on the US to pursue FTA talks with ASEAN. It was referred to the Senate Committee on Finance, but no progress was made.
    The idea of a US-ASEAN FTA enjoys some support among US lawmakers, but it has been unable to gain traction in Washington due to a general lack of enthusiasm for complex free trade deals. Myanmar's membership in ASEAN presents another stumbling block.
    Report: US senator renews call for Asean FTA [Straits Times, 30 June 2011] (Requires login)


    The Obama administration also seems to favour a different regional trade agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), rather than signing a deal with just ASEAN countries.


    The TPP is an existing multilateral FTA between Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore, which entered into force in 2006. Five more countries are currently negotiating to enter the agreement, the US, Australia, Malaysia, Peru and Vietnam.



    Officials are drafting a new deal to include the prospective members, and hope to finish talks by November this year. Last week, trade representatives met in Vietnam for a seventh round of talks, discussing issues like investment liberalisation, facilitating supply chains, and creating opportunities for small-and-medium enterprises.
    Report: Trans-Pacific partnership yields good results - and more on way [Viet Nam News, 28 June 2011]
    But Lugar has suggested that a potential US-ASE
    AN FTA need not be mutually exclusive with the TPP, as the two trade deals could co-exist. The US senator added that the US must match action to words and expand its relationship with Southeast Asia.
    Total trade between the US and ASEAN hit US$178 billion in 2010, with US exports to ASEAN up 31 percent over 2009 and US imports from ASEAN up 17 percent.


    Singapore topped the list of ASEAN countries for US exports last year, followed by Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia. The top five ASEAN import suppliers to the US were Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcmlxxvi
    No data from me obviously, just a guess. 10-15% correction tops (in particular those insanely overpriced projects)... So better faster jump on to the boat of those already TOP projects with reasonable prices and rent out to secure passive extra income stream. Coz in 24mths there will be whole lot more competition...
    Agree. I am a fan of d10 and d11.
    D11/d10 bkt timah road alone seeing few bigger >80 unitsvprojects that TOP or going to TOP

    Cyan
    Floridian
    jardin
    Cascadia

    Putting myself in shoes of investors in general prices up by 30-40% or more for these projects. A 15-20% discounts I probably sell off. Projects TOP now were sold or sold when prices were climbing and market getting hot ie early 2009

    Not to forget the older projects may also compete for market demand.

    I don't foresee increasing demand as all would agree SSD measure is there for next 24 mths, don't foresee increasing FT PRs in next 24 mths.

  10. #10
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    When everybody is saying correction is coming, the projects I've visited still not showing signs of weakening price. Agents kept saying developer will increase price by tomorrow, etc. Hmmm...

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    When everybody is saying correction is coming, the projects I've visited still not showing signs of weakening price. Agents kept saying developer will increase price by tomorrow, etc. Hmmm...
    Maybe the agent playing poker with you?

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by dmonddd
    Agree. I am a fan of d10 and d11.
    D11/d10 bkt timah road alone seeing few bigger >80 unitsvprojects that TOP or going to TOP
    i m superfan of D10 too. Orange did a superb description of D10 if u have not already seen it.

    What D10 lacks is some exciting new development. Maybe rebuild turf city in a nice development worth of its price land that it sits on.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    When everybody is saying correction is coming, the projects I've visited still not showing signs of weakening price. Agents kept saying developer will increase price by tomorrow, etc. Hmmm...
    I think it really depends on the popularity of the project. Less popular projects are giving big discounts

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    When everybody is saying correction is coming, the projects I've visited still not showing signs of weakening price. Agents kept saying developer will increase price by tomorrow, etc. Hmmm...
    If I am a developer what steps would i take?

    I would definitely want to offload my stocks.
    But slashing prices would kill the brand. And if project in phases similar to China and other countries, buyers in earlier phases would complain. I would

    Reverse marketing strategy may worth a shot by agents.
    Usual miss the boat reason to create anxiety.

    But if prices remain buyers feel then they got a good deal. Manage expectation

    Prices may be holding as developers also check transacted prices of surrounding projects (more or better facilities)

    surrounding projects if older would lose out as newly launched projects are designed to plug the missing gaps in older projects.

    I see prices for older surrounding projects will be stressed first then followed by new launch

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eastboy
    I think it really depends on the popularity of the project. Less popular projects are giving big discounts
    i m looking out for bedok proj to see hows the pricing and response. Next wk we all will know lah.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaytonaSS
    hi pple,

    hope this thread encourages more free flow of data that are both negative n positive.

    Also feel free to share which district u are aiming and at what range if its drops to your target entry. Any form of prediction should be welcome and please share y u feel that way. Any sharing of interesting articles to back up claim is most welcomed. Any names calling is not encouraged. Thanks
    yo....u havent vote wor....

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaytonaSS
    i m superfan of D10 too. Orange did a superb description of D10 if u have not already seen it.

    What D10 lacks is some exciting new development. Maybe rebuild turf city in a nice development worth of its price land that it sits on.
    Coincidentally I was discussing with home minister on turf city redevelopment as was there for kids lesson
    Lease expiry we know is till feb 2012 for one tenant

    I see tender sale coming after recovery of this countries' meltdown
    Given the size amount $$ pumped in by developer is massive and tender price may not be high

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    yo....u havent vote wor....
    i still thinking, 2molo wake up clearer mind the vote. Now going to sleep liao. AHAHAH

  19. #19
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    The situation now is unique, diff from 1997.

    There is massive liquidity now. Low rates is a given for at least another 3yrs.

    However euro crisis is causing a recession risk, even when US is starting to recover.

    In SG with all the CMs, secondary market is practically dormant since Jan 2011. The only movement is in new sale. All these pties sold in 2011, by 2013 they are about half built. With such low interest and SSD, there is no reason firesale will happen as long as the job market did not crash with massive unemployment.

    My view is there will be prolonged period of inactivity as long as interest rate is low. Price will be stagnant or slightly down, but not crash.

    The real danger is not our economy, but how euro crisis will pan out. If euro collapses, it will be 1930 style recession. However personally I do not believe this will happen. Too much is at stake. The west will eventually borrow its way out.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaytonaSS
    not wanting to irritate anyone or start OCR vs CCR debate, can name 1 or 2 u feel is insanely overpriced project?
    Studio 8 at Kallang. Bliss at Kovan. The Luxurie.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eastboy
    I think it really depends on the popularity of the project. Less popular projects are giving big discounts
    The flood is a concern to me since there are many choices

    Bukit timah line will be convenient in next 3-4 years.
    Meanwhile the drive now along bukit timah or dunearn is like rally driving

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    When everybody is saying correction is coming, the projects I've visited still not showing signs of weakening price. Agents kept saying developer will increase price by tomorrow, etc. Hmmm...
    px oredi corrected for recent ocr new launches(actually started with 8cy).....ocr near mrt drop below 1kpsf

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by buttercarp
    Maybe the agent playing poker with you?
    so u tink agt's last card is a diamond 3 or a spade ace? hehehe

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcmlxxvi
    Studio 8 at Kallang. Bliss at Kovan. The Luxurie.
    centro, TG, foresque, seawind, the sound, cape, silversea......ops....many from FEO......

    btw, r u trying for ur childhood town new launch nxt wk?

  25. #25
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    Btw the MM and landed cluster houses are excluded from view on prices
    Landed non cluster - don't foresee stressed as profile of owners are different - singaporeans and would by now have lower LTVs

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by amk
    The situation now is unique, diff from 1997.

    There is massive liquidity now. Low rates is a given for at least another 3yrs.

    However euro crisis is causing a recession risk, even when US is starting to recover.

    In SG with all the CMs, secondary market is practically dormant since Jan 2011. The only movement is in new sale. All these pties sold in 2011, by 2013 they are about half built. With such low interest and SSD, there is no reason firesale will happen as long as the job market did not crash with massive unemployment.

    My view is there will be prolonged period of inactivity as long as interest rate is low. Price will be stagnant or slightly down, but not crash.

    The real danger is not our economy, but how euro crisis will pan out. If euro collapses, it will be 1930 style recession. However personally I do not believe this will happen. Too much is at stake. The west will eventually borrow its way out.
    this is wat i afraid......i duno how long i can stay on hibernation mode.....mabe i shd apply an annual levy entry to pass time.....whahahaha

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    this is wat i afraid......i duno how long i can stay on hibernation mode.....mabe i shd apply an annual levy entry to pass time.....whahahaha
    ICF syndrome is common
    It's in human nature. Whenever I keep more than $300 in my wallet, fingers will tend to itch to buy something esp during sale time

    Same when it comes to property buying - been itching since mid 2011. My syndrome is less severe than yours (since 2010) Joking only - hope you don't literally take my last sentence in a serious manner

  28. #28
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    CCR and RCR will be worst hit if a downturn comes.

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by dmonddd
    The flood is a concern to me since there are many choices

    Bukit timah line will be convenient in next 3-4 years.
    Meanwhile the drive now along bukit timah or dunearn is like rally driving
    Sorry this was meant in response to another post

    I would not use less popular project to segregate
    I would exclude projects which are smaller in terms of number of units from my targets regardless of transportation convenient

    Why? I have stayed in small projects before and thereafter understand better the meaning of living within 4 walls

    Most of my FT colleagues prefer facilities and more space..

  30. #30
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    Novena / newton side

    Trilight
    Viva

    Quote Originally Posted by dmonddd
    Agree. I am a fan of d10 and d11.
    D11/d10 bkt timah road alone seeing few bigger >80 unitsvprojects that TOP or going to TOP

    Cyan
    Floridian
    jardin
    Cascadia

    Putting myself in shoes of investors in general prices up by 30-40% or more for these projects. A 15-20% discounts I probably sell off. Projects TOP now were sold or sold when prices were climbing and market getting hot ie early 2009

    Not to forget the older projects may also compete for market demand.

    I don't foresee increasing demand as all would agree SSD measure is there for next 24 mths, don't foresee increasing FT PRs in next 24 mths.

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