Andy Xie: Dump your China property now!
http://news.taizhou.com.cn/zztz/2011...ent_474746.htm
他,曾在1997年成功预测香港房地产将暴跌50%和内地通缩,因为一直唱空房地产市场被人戏称为经济界的 “空军一号”,他就是经济学家谢国忠。
He has successfully predicted the 1997 Hong Kong real estate will fall 50% and the Mainland deflation, because the real estate market has been singing empty economic circles is dubbed the "Air Force One", he is an economist Andy Xie.
谢原来预测,中国的房价下跌50%是在2012年,今年年初他改变原先预测,认为今年下半年将开始下跌,但 这个下跌不是一步到位的,先期先下跌 20%~30%,之后可能会有反复,到2014年会出现房价下跌50%。就好比A股从6000点下跌,跌到 5000点的时候就会有人进场,托一托。捞底的人总会有的。房价下跌20%~30%之后,急需买房的和一些 投资客会进场,交易量就会起来。
Xie had predicted that China's housing prices fell 50% in 2012, he changed the original forecast earlier this year that will begin to decline this year, but this decline is not a one-step, the initial first down by 20% to 30%, followed by possible will be repeated, there will be 2014 prices fell 50%. Like A shares fell from 6,000 points, down to 5000, when it was admitted, asked a prop. Fishing at the end were always there. Prices fell 20% to 30%, the need to buy a house and some investors will approach, trading volume will be up.
“再过10年,中国人口开始下降,10年后房价不会涨起来了,只会掉不会涨。任何一个人口开始下降的国家房 价只会掉,当时日本每年房价下调7%。人口老化是一个巨大的力量,以后对中国影响非常大,人口老龄化后一个 社会负担越来越重,人口老龄化以后不要谈楼市会不会涨,是不会涨的。”谢国忠说。
"In 10 years, China's population began to decline, prices will not rise after 10 years together, and will not rise out Any country with a population decline in house prices will start out, Japan was down 7% annual price population aging is a tremendous force, after a very large impact on China, after an aging population increasingly heavy burden on a society, do not talk about the future aging population will rise property is not up to. "Xie said.
谢国忠一直建议投资者尽快卖掉手中空房,那么卖掉房之后买什么呢?
“先留着,现在人民币不会贬值,不管内部通胀有多少,不敢贬值,贬了的话所有的钱都会流出中国。不过现在卖 的话肯定卖不掉,很多朋友卖房子都没人看,没办法只能熬。如果这时有人来看你的空房子,一定要卖了,这是个 好机会。如果下一次房价掉的话,要持续掉三四年。”
Xie has been recommended investors sell their availability as soon as possible, then sell the house after buying it?
"First keep, and now will not devalue the yuan, regardless of how much domestic inflation, not depreciation, devaluation of the words all of the money will go out of China, but it certainly can not sell now sell many of my friends are selling the house no one, not approach can only boil if when people come to your empty house, must sell, this is a good opportunity if house prices fall, then the next to last out three or four years. "
谢国忠说,在泡沫崩溃的时候做什么也不管用。其实,内地的房地产在2008年就应该让它崩盘,但后来政府大 量发行货币,又把它撑起来了。这次泡沫崩溃,救市的资金会比2008年的更多。
那么像2008年大规模救市的历史会重演吗?
“2008年、2009年十万亿钱砸进滋生泡沫现在可以吗?政府是不敢做的,政府是受限制的,在货币政策上 是受限制的,它是不可能像2008年这样做的。”
Xie said, when the collapse of the bubble do not work. In fact, the mainland's real estate in 2008 should make it crash, but later the government issued a lot of money and took it to hold up to the. The collapse of the bubble, bailout funds for more than 2008.
So like the 2008 large-scale bailout history will repeat itself?
"In 2008, 2009, ten trillion throwing money at breeding foam now can it? Government is not done, the government is restricted in the monetary policy is limited, it is impossible to do so as in 2008 . "