Second that. Something that can be identified as the potential black swan isn't the black swan.Originally Posted by Leeds
Senior
Second that. Something that can be identified as the potential black swan isn't the black swan.
Junior
Population is a big factor in Singapore's property market, especially the foreign and PR population. Imagine what a foreign and PR population reduction will do to the property market.
Overcrowded public transport and very expensive private transport are factors against population increase, so it is population related.
Now even MNCs are very concerned about Singapore's high property prices and high living costs, and are downsizing their operations and moving out to less expensive cities to cut costs.
Singapore is currently the sixth most expensive city in the world, and third most expensive city in Asia. Singapore is becoming too expensive...
Senior
We can't compete on price. We need to compete on value add and the intangibles.
Junior
NB!! I tot YOUNG KOK cum INEXPERIENCE SELETAR airbase was saying that "Price have been dropping....." in 20th June 2012?? So how come become more & more expensive??!!
I think now SELETAR airbase can be promoted same rank as MR B... to "TWIST & TURN cum DIVERT ATTENTION EXPERT" lor
20th June 2012
Newbie
I thought MNCs are more concerned about manpower shortage.
Need more population lah.
Junior
I thought MNCs are more concerned about manpower shortage.
Need more population lah.
http://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/heres...oncerned-about
Singapore Business Review
ECONOMY | Staff Reporter, Singapore
Published: 13 Feb 2013
Here's what Singapore MNCs are most concerned about
Soaring property prices are only second biggest issue.
In this year’s survey, Economist Corporate Network members assessed whether issues below where material constraints on their ability to operate—and whether they were serious enough to cause managers to consider decamping to other locations.
Cost of living/inflation tops the chart of major irritants in Singapore with more than half of surveyed companies indicating it to be either a major constraint or a reason to relocate—and nearly 40% consider property prices as having the same impact.
Will this cause companies to look at other places to put their regional management hubs?
Economist Corporate Network says: "In all likelihood not."
"It is still vitally important to have a critical mass of management in places where travel is convenient and the financial system works well. However, that doesn’t mean that firms are doing nothing. Anecdotally, some firms are moving parts of their operations that don’t need to be in their regional hubs into less expensive cities in other countries. Other firms are exploring more distributed management models, spreading their senior team across several markets, rather than putting them all in one place."
Newbie
"It is still vitally important to have a critical mass of management in places where travel is convenient and the financial system works well"http://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/heres...oncerned-about
Singapore Business Review
ECONOMY | Staff Reporter, Singapore
Published: 13 Feb 2013
Here's what Singapore MNCs are most concerned about
Soaring property prices are only second biggest issue.
In this year’s survey, Economist Corporate Network members assessed whether issues below where material constraints on their ability to operate—and whether they were serious enough to cause managers to consider decamping to other locations.
Cost of living/inflation tops the chart of major irritants in Singapore with more than half of surveyed companies indicating it to be either a major constraint or a reason to relocate—and nearly 40% consider property prices as having the same impact.
Will this cause companies to look at other places to put their regional management hubs?
Economist Corporate Network says: "In all likelihood not."
"It is still vitally important to have a critical mass of management in places where travel is convenient and the financial system works well. However, that doesn’t mean that firms are doing nothing. Anecdotally, some firms are moving parts of their operations that don’t need to be in their regional hubs into less expensive cities in other countries. Other firms are exploring more distributed management models, spreading their senior team across several markets, rather than putting them all in one place."
Posted it in wrong thread?
Sound to me that Singapore becoming a city for rich people only. More and rich coming our way.
Can imagine what it will mean for property ?
Senior
This is a real concern. Tt is y I think Singapore will b a v expensive place to retire for most retirees unless u already belong to e rich n ruling class now. Properties will b also v expensive by virtue of limited land but growing number of richer immigrants. By default set e inflation rate at 4% n c how much savings u need to retire at ur current quality of living. It shd b a big amt."It is still vitally important to have a critical mass of management in places where travel is convenient and the financial system works well"
Posted it in wrong thread?
Sound to me that Singapore becoming a city for rich people only. More and rich coming our way.
Can imagine what it will mean for property ?
Junior
How can pty be expensive later?? S'pore Pty price is coming down very very fast since Oct 2011 u know!! Where is MR B??
U folks have totally forgotten about the title of this thread hah!!
Junior
Are the very senior management (the rich people) of most of these MNCs based here? Singapore is a regional hub with a very small domestic market, it is not their global HQ. Increasingly MNCs are moving their investments, operations and senior people to where the big markets are to cut costs and improve efficiency. Singapore is getting too expensive and losing attraction to MNCs. Why are CCR property rental and sales doing poorly when there are so many rich people from MNCs coming as you have imagined?"It is still vitally important to have a critical mass of management in places where travel is convenient and the financial system works well"
Posted it in wrong thread?
Sound to me that Singapore becoming a city for rich people only. More and rich coming our way.
Can imagine what it will mean for property ?
Junior
http://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/singa...tments-in-2013
Singapore Business Review
ECONOMY | Staff Reporter, Singapore
Published: 12 Feb 13
Singapore's barely a choice for new investments in 2013
Nearly 1 in 2 investors in Singapore stay on the sidelines.
China tops the chart of countries attracting greater new commitments this year, said a report by the Economist Corporate Network Asia.
"As the world’s second largest economy, and with growth ratesthat remain impressive, China’s gravitational pull appears undiminished. Nearly three-quarters of the companies in our survey say they will increase their investment there in 2013."
Economist Corporate Network Asia points that this is is likely driven in part by the increasing geographical diversification of the China opportunity.
"Production centres are drifting inland, and new markets are rising rapidly in Tier Two, Three and Four cities, most of which lie inland from the established markets of China’s eastern and southern provinces. Foreign firms have many gripes in China, from rapidly rising wages, to entrenched favouritism towards local competitors. But such gripes are not yet translating into reduced appetite for investing there.
Singapore results however were a bit disappointing with only 34.8% of investors interviewed stating they will increase their level of investments - 46.1% of the investors already in the market will not increase; 21.9% have no plans to invest; and 3.1% will reduce investments.
Newbie
Sg is 2nd if you add those who are already in the market but not increasing plus those who intend to increase.....it does not say anything about the actual amount of investment....in absolute amount, the picture would be clearer....this report is not very reflective of true investment climate....very superficial and selective in using the data.http://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/singa...tments-in-2013
Singapore Business Review
ECONOMY | Staff Reporter, Singapore
Published: 12 Feb 13
Singapore's barely a choice for new investments in 2013
Nearly 1 in 2 investors in Singapore stay on the sidelines.
China tops the chart of countries attracting greater new commitments this year, said a report by the Economist Corporate Network Asia.
"As the world’s second largest economy, and with growth ratesthat remain impressive, China’s gravitational pull appears undiminished. Nearly three-quarters of the companies in our survey say they will increase their investment there in 2013."
Economist Corporate Network Asia points that this is is likely driven in part by the increasing geographical diversification of the China opportunity.
"Production centres are drifting inland, and new markets are rising rapidly in Tier Two, Three and Four cities, most of which lie inland from the established markets of China’s eastern and southern provinces. Foreign firms have many gripes in China, from rapidly rising wages, to entrenched favouritism towards local competitors. But such gripes are not yet translating into reduced appetite for investing there.
Singapore results however were a bit disappointing with only 34.8% of investors interviewed stating they will increase their level of investments - 46.1% of the investors already in the market will not increase; 21.9% have no plans to invest; and 3.1% will reduce investments.
Newbie
ok. understand. we just got out of a major crisis. there was so much money pumped in by the various govt. they would do everything to ensure we don't go into a recession. how to see another world recession within the next 2 years. when u are down, there is no way to go but up.
Newbie
The Fed is always ahead of the curve, meaning, if there's a crisis, they will print lots of money in huge amounts, but once the recovery starts, they will start sucking back the money in equally huge amounts. Once they start sucking back, funds will flow out of Singapore.
Of course, the question is when the recovery will begin. That will depend on the US property market. It could be very fast, as early as by 3rd quarter 2013.
Newbie
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0AZAHE20130130
TREASURIES-Selloff accelerates as Treasury yields top 2 pct
LONDON | Wed Jan 30, 2013 6:13am EST
Jan 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose to a nine-month high on Wednesday as a break above 2 percent in 10-year yields spurred a new round of selling ahead of the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting and key data.
As the recent resurgence in appetite for riskier assets grew stronger in Asian trading, the decisive break by 10-year Treasury yield above this closely watched level triggered a wave of selling when European markets opened.
"It's been very busy morning. Once we broke through 2 percent on 10s it seemed like it sparked another round. This is coming from real money accounts here," a trader said, referring to long-term investors rather than short-term speculators.
The selloff took 10-year yields to a peak of 2.035 percent with traders eyeing next resistance at 2.07 percent - a level which capped the yield during early 2012.
"It's a global shift away from safer assets to more risky assets as the worst-case scenario for the world economy seems to be avoided, particularly in Europe," said Nick Stamenkovic, strategist at RIA Capital Markets
"The price action suggests that the market is selling on strength rather than buying on weakness which is a reflection of deteriorating sentiment towards Treasuries."
Treasury futures were 6/32 lower at 131, matching a similar-sized fall in German Bunds.
The near-term outlook is dominated by the outcome later in the day of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. The Fed is not expected to unveil new policy measures, but its pronouncements will be scrutinised for any indication of when loose monetary policy could end.
"Anything that is going to push up expectations of when the end of quantitative easing happens is going to be a bearish event," the trader said, adding that such signals could send Treasury yields as high as 2.15 percent.
Beyond that, U.S. jobs data due on Friday will help to shape investors' perception of how strong growth is in the U.S. economy. The current upbeat sentiment left markets vulnerable to a worse than expected figure, which could check the rise in yields, analysts said.
Senior
The US housing market started recovering last year...
Newbie
Yes, but this is only housing recovery and it has barely begun.
Even though in some cities like San Francisco, prices rose 28.3% last year, across the US, the average price only rose only an average of 10%.
Of course, with the recovering US economy, this year prices may rise 15-20% across the board, matching 2005 bubble levels, with cities in California probably doubling their prices from 2011 levels.
By then, you can see that Ben Bernanke will look very odd with his zero interest rate policy.
Last edited by sgbuyer; 14-02-13 at 08:38.
Music of the night
with shrinking value of USD and negative real rate ... it is only a matter of time that the commoners pile into risky assets
Ride at your own risk !!!
Junior
Draghi-Carney Show Ascent of Whatever-It-Takes Central Bankers
By Simon Kennedy
February 13, 2013 7:19 PM EST
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Call them the “whatever-it-takes” central bankers.
As the world’s advanced economies grow at half the speed of the pre-crisis years amid persistently high unemployment, governments are turning to a new set of monetary-policy makers who in word -- and they hope deed -- are more aggressive than their predecessors.
1 OF 3 VIDEOS
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High Expectations for Carney Are Risky, HSBC Says
(11:23) 6 days ago
Yellen Says Rates May Not Rise When Thresholds Hit
(25:35) 2 days ago
Bernanke Talks About Fed Policy in Michigan
(59:23) 1 months ago
A revolution that began with the arrival in November 2011 of Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank now is gathering speed as Canada’s Mark Carney joins the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan awaits a new governor. The shift could culminate a year from now if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is succeeded by someone even bolder.
The changing of the guard reflects both a need for central banks to offset fiscal paralysis and a bet that monetary policy remains a potent force. At the same time, investors are increasingly weighing the costs and benefits of quantitative easing, while suggesting too much is expected of central banks.
The appointments of activists “reflect the case that economies are still struggling to sustain solid recoveries and there’s pressure from political quarters to be more stimulative,” said Nathan Sheets, a former adviser to Bernanke and now global head of international economics at Citigroup Inc. in New York. “Central banks have stuff in the bag, but it’s largely untried and may generate unwelcome side effects.”
The aggressiveness -- actual or anticipated -- already is affecting markets. The euro is up 9.5 percent against the dollar since Draghi’s July 26 vow to defend the single currency, and the yield on Spain’s 10-year bond has fallen more than two percentage points to 5.2 percent since July 24.
The Japanese yen is down about 15 percent compared with the dollar since mid-November in anticipation of new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plans to refocus the Bank of Japan on beating deflation. U.K. inflation expectations are near the highest since April 2011 amid speculation that Carney, currently the Bank of Canada governor, will spur prices.
The promotion of policy makers who support stimulus encourages the recent pivot away from bonds and into riskier assets such as stocks, said Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Edinburgh-based Standard Life Investments Ltd. It also is forcing investors to consider ways to protect themselves against long-term price pressures through inflation-protected bonds and real estate, he said
Junior
If u think ben bernake is printing like crazy, wait for the next generation of central bankers. Growth will be rank supreme, inflation to the infinity and beyond.
Newbie
this one makes my day...
Junior
we are always more expensive than our neighbours, u only know that today?? If they want it cheap, there is JB, Batam, or even as far as vietnam...
so do u now see why they are here? I dont think i need to elaborate on that. more expat getting local terms due to economic situation and thus more are even moving to OCR, that is understandable but that doesn't mean MNC is not here. CCR might start to shine again when the market recovers, who knows.
in any case, more ppl will find OCR valuable as Sg are decentralizing our CBD into regional hubs and because of that, more will want to stay near to where they works. right? If more banks are in CBD, then mostly expats from the banking will be there renting CCR. i suppose...now that banking is suffering, of course CCR will lose it shines.
Newbie
All this doomsday talk is really outdated and based on old information.
George Soros and Warren Buffett were the biggest buyers of US bank stocks in 2011. A lot has changed in the last 4 years.
There were no smartphones in 2008. There were no phone apps - which btw are mostly created in the US.
While cost has risen through the roof in Asia, costs in the US has plunged to the bottom of the sea with the cheapest natural gas and cheapest oil and electricity. Thousands of companies are planning to shutdown in Asia and move their factories to the US to take advantage of lower costs and energy.
Of course, the man in the street, don't know this yet. The billionaires knew, they had access to info we don't.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...157966810.html
Cheap natural gas gives U.S. ‘competitive advantage’
February 7, 2013, 7:15 PM
While corporate executives at Qualcomm Inc. QCOM -0.17% and other companies may opt out of building factories and jobs in the U.S. because of richer incentives in other countries, Hugh Welsh, North American president of Dutch conglomerate DSM NL
The lower cost for the fuel translates to reduced expenses for electrical power to run factories and more affordable prices for gas-based raw materials used to make petrochemicals and other products, he said.
Hugh Welsh
Natural gas in the U.S. is currently about $3.40 per thousand cubic feet; it’s between $10 and $11 in Europe and $15 in Asia
“Cheap natural gas is a good incentive for any manufacturer,” said Welsh. “It’s an enormous competitive advantage for the U.S.” Despite generous overseas incentives, the U.S. also offers productivity gains, predictable rule of law, protection of intellectual property, and a slowly-growing economy, he said.
For its part, DSM has wrapped up nine U.S. acquisitions in the past two years worth more than $3 billion, with 38 locations and more than 5,000 employees in North America.
Welsh is pushing for a federal production tax credit for biochemicals, a move he says could lead to 100,000 new industry jobs over the next five years.
Meanwhile, DSM plans to continue its efforts to expand its U.S. presence through its alliance with ethanol maker Poet LLC to build plants that convert corn cobs and other waste products into fuel, along with other projects.
– Steve Gelsi
FIRE SALE: Oil sands players now get $45 a barrel vs global price of $109
Frik Els | December 14, 2012
This week the price oil sands producers receive fell to staggering $64 a barrel below the international benchmark after the spread between Canada’s heavy oil and US crude fell to a more than five-year low.
The deepening discount for Western Canada Select (WCS) – a blend of heavy oil sands crude and conventional oil – comes on top of declines for US benchmark Nymex West Texas Intermediate (WTI).
US crude is now close to $23 cheaper than global oil in the form of North Sea Brent. WTI always traded at a premium, but that changed in 2009 when the Saudis stopped using it as the benchmark and switched to Brent.
Brent is trading at $109 in Europe which translates to an effective price for bitumen-derived oil from Alberta's oil sands of just over $45 a barrel.
The value of Syncrude – a light oil made from oil sands after undergoing an expensive upgrading process – is trading at par to WTI, down from a $15.00 premium in September.
The lack of pricing power for Canada's oil sands players is often blamed on the fact that 99% of exports end up in the US.
Producers cannot access new markets in Asia as pipeline projects to the west coast languish in a regulatory morass.
There is no clear timeline for TransCanada’s (NYSE:TRP) Keystone XL to finally cross the border into Canada.
That Enbridge’s (TSX:ENB) Northern Gateway pipelines is built at all is an ever diminishing prospect and even Kinder Morgan’s (NYSE:KMI) proposal to expand its existing pipeline to the Pacific coast, is facing fierce opposition.
There exists also the absurd situation that the populous centers in the eastern part of Canada have to import 60% of their needs and pay global prices.
There is talk of converting an existing gas pipeline to carry Alberta oil to the east, but at this point that's all it is; talk.
And even if these projects do come off the ground Alberta producers like Suncor (TSX:SU NYSE:SU), Cenovus (TSX:CVE NYSE: CVE) and Imperial Oil (TSX:IMO NYSE:IMO) would still find it hard to compete.
Bitumen is expensive to extract, upgrade and refine and cannot compete with the many new shale oil plays which have pushed US production to its highest level in a decade.
Unlike oilsands oil, Bakken trades broadly in line with to WTI and the region is also competing for pipeline and refinery contracts with Alberta.
Apart from the boom in US production and a strong loonie – as the Canadian dollar is referred to by locals – Alberta's oil sands players are also threatened by escalating labor and equipment costs.
A recent report by research house Wood Mackenzie shows break-even costs for building new steam-driven projects is in the $65 – $70 a barrel range.
Mining developments – the truck and shovel method accounts for a fifth of all projects – need at least $90 – $100 oil.
Existing projects in Alberta can still make money at $45 a barrel.
Canada loves to brag that when including the oil sands, its oil reserves are second only to Saudi Arabia’s.
But if these are the kind of numbers you’re working with that’s all it’s going to stay – reserves in the ground.
Valued Contributor
And they just printed billions of dollars to pay for their debt. While those holding USD see the value shrink by 20-30%. And their economy is going full steam because of low currency ex. But their citizens will be hit because their savings has shrank and inflation is high. Pros and cons but overall, they are stronger now.
Europe, on the other hand, is pretty screwed.
Newbie
Having the most powerful military in the world does has its privileges. While our sovereign funds threw in tens of billions into their banks, their Fed merely had to print the billions - FOC.
Lee: We spent billions helping your banks....
Obama: Oh thank you....... perhaps you could have waited a little for our Fed money trucks first.
Last edited by sgbuyer; 14-02-13 at 10:06.
Junior
U are this close to a law suitHaving the most powerful military in the world does has its privileges. While our sovereign funds threw in tens of billions into their banks, their Fed merely had to print the billions - FOC.
Lee: We spent billions helping your banks....
Obama: Oh thank you....... perhaps you could have waited a little for our Fed money trucks first.
Junior
http://www.straitstimes.com/premium/...first-20130214
Straits Times Forum
Published on Feb 14, 2013
Focus on high cost of living first
SINGAPORE is now ranked the sixth most expensive city in the world, according to a recent survey ("S'pore is world's 6th most costly city: Survey"; Feb 5).
How did we become such an expensive city within the space of a few years?
The main factor has been inflation on the housing and transport front.
Our loose immigration policy over the past few years, coupled with the lack of forward planning on infrastructure, has been the catalyst.
Now, we have a Population White Paper outlining future population projections, with comprehensive plans to expand the infrastructure. But no mention has been made about the high cost of living here.
With more people, Singapore is certainly not going to become a cheaper place to live in.
One possible scenario is that highly skilled and mobile Singaporeans will seek to live elsewhere.
The net effect will be less born-and-bred Singaporeans and more immigration to make up for the declining population.
The White Paper should first focus on the high cost of living, as population growth creates more cost pressures.
If we do not watch our cost of living, Singapore may well become the most expensive city in the world.
Tan Ho Gian
Junior
http://www.straitstimes.com/premium/...y-all-20130214
Straits Times Forum
Published on Feb 14, 2013
Singapore is a costly city for all
IN THE Worldwide Cost of Living 2013 survey, Singapore moved up three places from ninth position, making it a more expensive place to live in than cities like Zurich, Paris and Geneva ("S'pore is world's 6th most costly city: Survey"; Feb 5).
Associate Professor Tan Khee Giap, co-director of the Asia Competitiveness Institute at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, was quoted as saying that the survey findings should not be used as a benchmark for the lives of average Singaporeans.
He argues that the survey is targeted mainly at human resource managers and expatriate executives.
I have been a human resource manager for some 35 years, and I doubt if the Economist Intelligence Unit would go through the effort of producing such a survey twice a year for the sole benefit of human resource managers.
While it is true that expatriates tend to wine and dine at restaurants, instead of at coffee shops or hawker centres, the prices of goods and services affect all, regardless of whether they are expatriates or Singaporeans.
I am sure the average Singaporean would agree that Singapore has become an expensive place to live in. Just look at what you would have to pay today for an HDB flat or a car or a bowl of noodles, compared to what you paid, say, 10 years ago.
One can argue that the survey is biased, but the reality is that Singapore is an expensive city to live in, survey or no survey.
Matthew Ong Koon Lock
Junior
This is so funny!
I've been listening to negative news & completed loose my guards since 5-rm $100k.. listening to negative news & loose my guards till now some 5-rm transacted over at $1,000,000k now
Music of the night
This is so funny!
I've been listening to negative news & completed loose my guards since 5-rm $100k.. listening to negative news & loose my guards till now some 5-rm transacted over at $1,000,000k now
in 1980's - 100k 5r new HDB, 2k starting pay, resale 150-200k
in 1990's - 300k 5r new HDB, 2.5k starting pay, resale 350-450k
in 2000's - 400k 5r new HDB, 2.8k starting pay, resale 450-550k
in 2010's - 500k 5r new HDB, 3k starting pay, resale 650-950k
in 2020's - 650k 5r new HDB, 3.2k starting pay, resale 1m?
1991 M3 - 1991
Jan 83,076.1 (million)
2012
Dec P 485,915.4 (million)
perfect ...83k HDB at 1991 shoud now be 485k
Last edited by phantom_opera; 14-02-13 at 11:26.
Ride at your own risk !!!
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