Property price is coming down fast

[seletar]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...239118/1/.html

EU's trillion euro budget summit ends in failure

Channel News Asia
Posted: 24 November 2012 0245 hrs


BRUSSELS: Talks on the European Union's trillion euro budget ended in deadlock Friday when leaders of the 27-nation bloc failed to overcome seemingly irreconcilable differences on spending.

EU President Herman Van Rompuy insisted however that progress had been made in the two days of bitter bargaining. He forecast that a deal would be made when leaders meet again next year.

Tensions between rich and poor states over funding for economic development and Britain's strident demands for cuts in the mammoth budget -- covering seven years from 2014 to 2020 -- had set the summit on a rocky course from the start.

Britain was cast as the chief spoiler, with Prime Minister David Cameron arriving with a threat to wield his veto unless spending was frozen in real terms. He argued that in times of economic crisis, the EU too must make deep cuts.

But Cameron said as leaders went home without a deal that his country was not alone in seeking to reduce EU spending.

"The deal on the table was not one I was prepared to accept, nor were a number of other countries," he said of talks that a former European premier described as "like a Turkish bazaar".

The last time the EU had to agree on seven-year budget negotiations was in 2005, when it took six months and a failed summit during which Britain deployed its veto.

Nearly a year after angering his European counterparts by vetoing a pact to resolve the eurozone crisis, Cameron irritated many by demanding cuts to perks enjoyed by so-called "eurocrats" -- the well-paid EU civil servants frequently lampooned by the British press.

He failed to get them.

"The (European) Commission did not offer a single euro in savings (on perks) and I just don't think that was good enough," he said.


British, Swedes, Dutch made 'virulent' demands for cuts

An EU diplomat said the main obstacle at the summit was Cameron's demand for reductions in the planned trillion-dollar budget, with Sweden and The Netherlands the other "virulent" countries seeking cuts.

Cameron had vowed to bring down the budget from a proposed 1.047 trillion euros ($1.347 trillion) to 886 billion euros.

Van Rompuy submitted new proposals Friday to bring the budget to 972 billion euros, or just over one percent of the total economic output of the union that is home to 500 million people.

Those proposals aimed to meet demands to maintain so-called "cohesion" funds to help poorer nations and regions catch up with richer ones, as well as spending on the Common Agricultural Policy, the farm subsidy programme cherished by France that is the budget's biggest single item.

But that was not enough, and EU leaders threw in the towel.

As recriminations began to fly, a British source criticised a lack of preparation by Van Rompuy for the summit, saying it made negotiations more difficult.

French President Francois Hollande took a pop at Cameron, saying he had come to the summit with a "set priority" to protect the British rebate.

"I too could say that I want my discount," he said, adding that Britain was a smaller net contributor to the EU budget than France, which does not claim a rebate.

Britain has claimed that right since then prime minister Margaret Thatcher obtained one in 1984 on the grounds that London was paying too much into the bloc's coffers.

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, which forks out by far the most money to keep the EU running, had been sceptical even before arriving in Brussels that a deal might be reached at the summit and played down the importance of failure.

She said Friday she was "satisfied" at the progress made and confident a deal would eventually be achieved.

-AFP/ac

[seletar]

http://sbr.com.sg/commercial-propert...ce-sector-2013

Singapore Business Review
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY | Staff Reporter, Singapore
Published: 26 Nov 2012


Here are depressing illustrations of a bearish office sector by 2013


Rents in Raffles Place falling by 1.2% QoQ is just the start of a worse to come.

According to Jones Lang LaSalle, demand remained muted, with activity dominated by renewals and relocations but with limited expansions in 3Q12. New demand continued to be thin under the current market conditions, although positive net absorption was recorded during the quarter due to relocation demand.

Moving forward, Jones Lang LaSalle expects rental decline is likely to continue at a moderate pace for the rest of the year while en-bloc capital values are likely to stay flat, leading to further yield compression.

Here's more from Jones Lang LaSalle:

In Raffles Place, net absorption was 19,600 sqm as vacant space in investment-grade properties continued to be preferred by the market.

Leasing transactions were mainly supported by smaller office tenants (about 180–1,000 sqm), although some larger office tenants are currently looking for ways to decentralise their business operations in order to save costs.

Supply

Without any new completions, vacancy rates fell on the back of positive net absorption. In Raffles Place, the vacancy rate eased by 140 bps to 10.3% in 3Q12.

Asset Performance Rental decline slowed in 3Q12 as rents in office buildings generally held up on the back of stable occupancy. Average net effective rents in Raffles Place fell marginally by 1.2% q-o-q to SGD 930 per sqm per annum in 3Q12, similar to the rate in the previous quarter. Again, there was more downward pressure on rents in buildings with higher vacancies.

While strata-title office sales remained healthy, en bloc activity was rather quiet in 3Q12. The only known major transaction was 78 Shenton Way, located in Tanjong Pagar district, which involved the sale of a 50% stake for SGD 608 million or SGD 18,148 per sqm on an NLA basis. Strata-title capital values continued to provide some support for en-bloc capital values even as a gap remains between the expectations of buyers and sellers. En-bloc capital values thus remained stable for another quarter in 3Q12 and, as a result, yields continued to compress.

In Raffles Place, market yields compressed marginally by four bps to 3.6%, on the back of softening rents.

12-Month Outlook

Companies are likely to postpone their corporate plans as they await more positive economic data. As the financial year comes to a close, many major corporate decisions are likely to be delayed until early next year. As such, office activity is expected to remain fairly slow.




rental index versus capital index




take-up, completions and vacancy rates

[seletar]

http://sbr.com.sg/manufacturing/news...-21-in-october

Singapore Business Review
MANUFACTURING | Staff Reporter, Singapore
Published: 27 Nov 2012

Chart of the Day: Manufacturing output down 2.1% in October


Biomedical manufacturing cluster contracted 11.7%.

The Singapore Economic Development Board reported:

On a year-on-year basis, manufacturing output fell 2.1% in October 2012. Excluding biomedical manufacturing, output grew 0.6%.

On a three-month moving average basis, manufacturing output contracted 2.4% in October 2012, compared to a year ago.




Source: EDB

[seletar]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...-to-enron.html

Muddy Waters Attacks Olam’s Acquisitions, Likens It to Enron


By Michelle Yun - Nov 27, 2012 2:54 PM GMT+0800





Muddy Waters LLC, the research firm founded by short seller Carson Block, likened commodity trader Olam International Ltd. to energy trader Enron Corp. saying it runs a high risk of failure.

Muddy Waters rated Olam a strong sell in a 133-page report posted on its website today saying it values “Olam on a liquidation basis because our opinion is that it is likely to fail.” It estimates the present value of Olam’s debt at 14 to 33 cents on the dollar.

“We believe it is instructive to view Olam through the lens of failed U.S. trader Enron Corp.,” Muddy Waters said on its website. “There are a number of material similarities in the way their businesses developed, and their actions.”

Olam Chief Executive Officer Sunny Verghese, 53, yesterday stood by the company’s debt-funded expansion as the world’s second-biggest rice trader defends itself in its first ever law suit. The Singapore-based commodity trader declined 2.7 percent to S$1.615 at 2:41 p.m. local time after the report was released.

The company has lost 7.5 percent since Block first questioned Olam’s accounting methods on Nov. 19 at an investment conference in London.

Calls to the mobile of Aditya Renjen, Olam’s general manager of investor relations, after the release of the Muddy Waters report, went unanswered. Verghese said he hadn’t seen the report when contacted on his cell phone after its release.


Spending Plans

“We don’t think it’s in the best interest of our continuing shareholders” to abandon spending plans, Verghese, who established Olam in 1989, said yesterday in an interview inSingapore.

That includes committing to investments of S$3.2 billion ($2.6 billion) to S$3.7 billion in fiscal 2013 to 2015, against S$3.3 billion spent from 2010 to 2012, the first three years of a six-year program, Verghese said.

Block’s remarks were malicious falsehoods, Olam said in its lawsuit filed in the Singapore High Court on Nov. 21. The company is seeking unspecified damages, costs and an injunction against republication of the comments.

To contact the reporter on this story: Michelle Yun in Hong Kong at [email protected]

[seletar]

http://sbr.com.sg/food-beverage/news...xt-action-plan

Singapore Business Review
FOOD & BEVERAGE | Staff Reporter, Singapore
Published: 27 Nov 2012

Olam brews up next action plan


After Muddy Waters said it is "likely to fail'.

In a brief company release, Olam International announced that it has been informed that a report by Muddy Waters on the Company was issued this afternoon. Olam will assess the report and respond appropriately in due course.

Here's what the Muddy Waters report summary said:

Olam runs a high risk of failure. Its “asset heavy” strategy appears to be an off-the-rails CapEx and acquisition binge. Management talks about the “gestation” of these projects, but our research makes clear that they are marred by incompetence and perhaps significant misconduct.

The vast majority of the acquisitions we have researched are of low quality assets that appear to bring little more than cosmetic benefits to Olam. In short, these projects are “pie in the sky” that we strongly believe are destroying substantial amounts of capital.

Bond holders in particular should be asking where their money goes (and how they will get it back). Olam has spent S$571.0 million less on acquisitions than announced. However, it has spent S$996.2 million on unattributed non-acquisition CapEx – most of it since FY2011.

One possible interpretation is that Olam is doing far more greenfield projects than realized, which greatly increases its risk profile. Another possible interpretation is that Olam has problems with internal controls and significant cash leakage.

Over the years, Olam has committed a shocking number of accounting gaffes. We can conceive of two possible interpretations of its accounting track record – either its accounting functions are blithely incompetent; or, there could be malfeasance. (Both could be true as well.)

The former interpretation has ominous implications for Olam’s oft self-promoted ability to manage risk. The latter interpretation obviously has even more dire implications.

We believe it is instructive to view Olam through the lens of failed US trader Enron Corp. There are a number of material similarities in the way their businesses developed, and their actions.

We value Olam on a liquidation basis because our opinion is that it is likely to fail. In the event of a liquidation, we estimate the present value of the debt to be 14 to 33 cents. In a liquidation, the equity would likely be wiped out, or given “nuisance value” at best.

[seletar]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...-2008-low.html


China’s Stocks Drop Below 2,000 as Trading Value Hits 2008 Low

By Bloomberg News - Nov 27, 2012 4:29 PM GMT+0800






China’s stocks fell, with the benchmark index closing below 2,000 for the first time since 2009, as the value of shares traded slumped to the lowest in four years. Material and health-care companies led losses.

The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) dropped 1.3 percent to 1,991.17 at the 3 p.m. local-time close, its lowest level since Jan. 23, 2009. Shares worth 33.1 billion yuan ($5.3 billion) changed hands in the measure yesterday, the least since Nov. 7, 2008. The index has fallen 9.5 percent this year, heading for a third straight annual loss, as the nation’s economy slowed for seven quarters.

Investors have no confidence in long-term growth prospects and the government isn’t doing much to reverse the situation,” said Wang Zheng, Shanghai-based chief investment officer at Jingxi Investment Management Co., which manages $120 million. “Trading values may fall even further.”

Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co. sank 4.5 percent, while Shandong Dong-E E-Jiao Co., a traditional medicine-maker, declined 3.1 percent. JiuGuiJiu Co. tumbled 10 percent after Beijing News said the liquor maker will halt production to replace equipment.

The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) declined 1.2 percent to 2,150.64, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong dropped 0.2 percent at 3:40 p.m.

Yuan-denominated shares on the mainland trade at their biggest discount to their Hong Kong-listed peers since January 2011, according to an index compiled by Hang Seng Bank Ltd, as the H-share index has risen 6.2 percent this year. Mainland Chinese are barred from directly trading overseas shares, including those on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. (HSCEI)


2,000 Level

The Shanghai Composite dropped below 2,000 during intraday trading twice last week and rallied to close above that level amid speculation of government support. The index first broke above 2,000 in July 2000 and tripled to 6,092.06 on Oct. 16, 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg dating to 1991.

The Shanghai gauge plunged 42 percent through yesterday since Aug. 4, 2009, when the gauge reached its highest level since the global financial crisis. The MSCI All-Country World Index rallied 21 percent in the same time.

Investor interest in mainland China-traded shares has waned even as data showed signs of a growth recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. Industrial companies’ profit accelerated 20.5 percent in October to 500.1 billion yuan, the statistics bureau said today.

Factory output and exports both rose last month by the most since May. The gains reduce the impetus for the new Communist Party leadership headed by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang to build on policy stimulus including interest-rate cuts in June and July.


Stock Valuations

China’s stocks will “regain stability” by the first quarter of 2013 because of growth-inducing policies by the new leadership, improvements in macro conditions and recovery in the U.S., Chongkyu Juhn, a strategist at Samsung Securities Co., wrote in a note to clients. The Shanghai Composite will trade in the 2,000-2,400 range, he wrote.

The measure trades at 9.4 times estimated profit for 2012, compared with the 17.7 average multiple since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 2006. Thirty-day volatility in gauge was at 13.6, compared with this year’s average of 17.

Gauges tracking materials producers and health-care companies both declined 2.2 percent, the most among 10 industry groups on the CSI 300.

Baotou Rare-Earth, China’s biggest producer of rare earth, lost 4.5 percent to 31.99 yuan. Shandong Dong-E E-Jiao sank 3.1 percent to 37.12 yuan.


Government Support

The Shanghai gauge slid to 1,995.17 on Nov. 21 before rallying to close 1.1 percent higher at 2,030.32 amid speculation the People’s Bank of China will cut banks’ reserve ratios, Li Jun, a strategist at Central China Securities Co., said that day.

The measure sank to an intraday low of 1,995.72 on Nov. 19 and rallied in the final hour of trading to close 0.1 percent higher, which may have been spurred by government buying, according to Auerbach Grayson & Co.

The gauge breached 2,000 for less than two minutes during trading on Sept. 26 before rising 4.1 percent in the two days that followed. The Shanghai Securities News reported Sept. 27 there was speculation the China Securities Regulatory Commission would announce measures to boost stocks.


Liquor Plasticizer

JiuGuiJiu tumbled the maximum 10 percent for a third straight day, falling to 34.69 yuan. The liquor maker will suspend all production lines to replace equipment, the Beijing News reported, citing President Xia Xinguo. Three calls to the company weren’t answered today. Excessive levels of a plasticizer were found in some JiuGuiJiu samples, Xinhua News Agency reported last week.

Guangzhou Donghua Enterprise Co., property developer, tumbled the 10 percent daily limit to 7.51 yuan. Hareon Solar Technology Co., a manufacturer of solar modules, slumped 8.1 percent to 5.12 yuan. Luenmei Holding Co. slid 6.7 percent to 8.99 yuan. Anhui Leimingkehua Co., an explosive maker, sank 7.2 percent to 10.18 yuan.

China’s economic growth target for 2013 may be set between 7 percent and 7.5 percent, the China Securities Journal cited unidentified analysts as saying. The government’s annual target for this year is 7.5 percent.

The Bloomberg China-US 55 Index (CH55BN), the measure of the most-traded U.S.-listed Chinese companies, slid 1 percent in New Yorkyesterday. The iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund, the biggest Chinese exchange-traded fund in the U.S., dropped 0.4 percent to $37.33.

--Zhang Shidong. Editors: Richard Frost, Darren Boey

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Zhang Shidong in Shanghai at [email protected]

[Rysk]

http://sbr.com.sg/manufacturing/news...-21-in-october

Singapore Business Review
MANUFACTURING | Staff Reporter, Singapore
Published: 27 Nov 2012

Chart of the Day: Manufacturing output down 2.1% in October


Biomedical manufacturing cluster contracted 11.7%.

The Singapore Economic Development Board reported:

On a year-on-year basis, manufacturing output fell 2.1% in October 2012. Excluding biomedical manufacturing, output grew 0.6%.

On a three-month moving average basis, manufacturing output contracted 2.4% in October 2012, compared to a year ago.




Source: EDB

Oh! Is bottoming out soon!! Quickly BUY BUY BUY before miss the boat again!!!

Thanks for the info.. what a nice "bottoming out" chart..

[DKSG]

Oh! Is bottoming out soon!! Quickly BUY BUY BUY before miss the boat again!!!

Thanks for the info.. what a nice "bottoming out" chart..

Hey! Thought you are my friend ... why ask Ah B to buy ?
He cannot buy until 2015 when market is crashed by 50%.

If he buy now, his mental well being will be affected, after ONE WHOLE YEAR of crying father crying mother (CFCM), if he end up buying now, his self esteem will be affected ...

Ah B ... dont buy ... wait ... and wait ...

We need people like yourself in the last leg of the property climax ... which is likely to be AFTER 2016 ... haha ...

DKSG

[newbie11]

Price coming down? Maybe for the super high end segment.

For the <2mil and below and good location, the price hold steady and 'pun pi pi'. If the HDB price remains high, it will support the private market.

One owner told me that "sorry sir, we are not willing to sell below the the market price recent - 750 psf is the average, im just asking 730psf, also cannot."

I heard from a banker (cannot name who), Coming 2013 march there will be a dip in stock market (world wide), and by June the housing price will come down.

And there is a HR director told me, that they have received information from HQ to freeze headcount as next year is expected to be bad.

To be frank, i have been listening to these since 2010, listen too much, until opportunity also swim away.

So it is up to us to decide. Now i talk to newspaper journalist

Referring to ccr, which everyone know it'd having a lackluster year. Rental yield is bad. Ppl buying for investment now is in for a rough ride. For own stay, maybe it's an opp..

[newbie11]

......can verify your figures and sources? This is contrary to what is reported in URA figures.....and have you been to ECO Sanctuary show flat? ...think they are selling well....

Was referring to recent resale of completed units in ccr, and not MM. As we know, volume is coming from suburbs launches. It's not a reflection of ccr. Yes Eco sells well.. Cos it has been a quantum game in recent years. I see it as wealth distribution. The rich had it during 07, now the rest play catch up.

[Shanhz]

It was reported here.

http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/sho...t-a-little-bit.

Responding to a question on housing prices, Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam (picture) acknowledged that "we are not in a very happy part of the cycle ... because prices have risen faster than income in the last four years".

But Mr Tharman reiterated that, compared to other countries, Singapore has done more to intervene in the market. Apart from cooling measures, the Government is also ramping up the supply of Build-to-Order flats. "It takes a bit of time ... My advice to you is, wait a little bit," Mr Tharman told the undergraduates.

sometimes, read also must read context, i guess. tharman telling undergrads to wait abit more is not wrong. BTO supply coming up, prices will stabilise and perhaps even drop slightly. i say perhaps. furthermore, for young graduates, they have a longer timeline and income will increase. they will see more cycles, and could possibly enter at the next dip.

i may not support the party totally, but some of the ministers i do respect are KBW, tharman and tan chuan jin. i think they make sense and really do work.

[seletar]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...239682/1/.html

Global economy set for sharp slowdown in 2013: OECD



Channel News Asia
Posted: 27 November 2012 1833 hrs


PARIS - Global growth is set for a sharp slowdown next year and the eurozone debt crisis "remains the greatest threat to the world economy at present," the OECD warned on Tuesday.

The OECD said in its latest Economic Outlook, drafted before the eurozone and IMF unblocked almost 44 billion euros ($57 billion) in emergency loans for Greece, that "a hesitant and uneven recovery is projected over the next two years."

The organisation slashed its outlook for global growth in 2013 to 1.4 percent from a previously expected level of 2.2 percent.

Another threat to business activity worldwide is a potentially catastrophic budget standoff in the United States, where automatic tax increases and spending cuts are to take effect in January unless Democrat and Republican lawmakers can come to a compromise.

The world's economic fortunes thus hang next year in large part on the ability of political leaders in Europe and the US to deal with a crippling combination of unsustainable debt and cramped business activity.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development downgraded its growth estimates for this year and next for the United States and Japan, and its data showed that the eurozone recession could be deeper than last forecast in May.

The 17-nation bloc is "projected to remain in or near recession until well into 2013," the report said.

Overall the 34-member organisation's economies are expected to expand by 1.4 percent in 2012 and 2013, and then pick up to a pace of 2.3 percent in 2014.

Unemployment is forecast to rise from 8.0 percent this year to 8.2 percent in 2013 before easing back to 8.0 percent in 2014.

Inflation should decline meanwhile, from 2.1 percent in 2012, to 1.7 percent next year, and then edge up to 1.9 percent in 2014.

"Economic prospects are very uncertain and highly dependent on the risks associated with the nature and timing of policy decisions related to the euro area crisis, (and) the US fiscal cliff," OECD analysts said in reference to Washington's looming budget deadline.

They pointed to falling household and business confidence that led to a payoff of debts and said the climate was also morose because "unemployment is set to remain high or even rise further in many countries."

Emerging economies such as those in Brazil, China and India, which are not OECD members, would fare better, but were nonetheless subject to "spillover from the euro area crisis" that has undermined global trade.

"World trade will strengthen only gradually" over the next two years, the OECD estimated.

A breakdown of its forecasts put growth in the US economy, the world's biggest, at 2.2 percent this year and 2.0 percent in 2013, compared with the previous forecast in May of 2.4 and 2.6 percent.

For Japan, gross domestic product (GDP) is now expected to expand by 1.6 and 0.7 percent this year and next, down from 2.0 and 1.5 percent, while the eurozone economy is tipped to contract by 0.4 and 0.1 percent.

That compared with the earlier OECD eurozone estimate of a eurozone decline of 0.1 percent this year and growth of 0.9 percent in 2013.

Outside the OECD, growth in Brazil from 2012 to 2014 was put at 1.5, 4.0 and 4.1 percent, in China at 7.5, 8.5 and 8.9 percent, and in India at 4.4, 6.5 and 7.1 percent.

The eurozone should have the highest unemployment, with rates of 11.1 percent and 11.9 percent of the workforce, an increase from the earlier forecasts of 10.8 and 11.1 percent.

To battle against the slowdown, OECD economists called for stronger fiscal stimulus using so-called quantitative easing (QE), noting that China and Germany in particular should spend more to boost economic activity.

"Lower interest rates, where possible, and much stronger additional quantitative easing would be merited in all economies," the report said.

Japanese authorities were encouraged to draft more credible medium-term budget consolidation measures however, owing to that country's huge public debt.

In the eurozone, "a complete bank union is needed for the long term; direct ESM injections into banks are necessary in the short term," the report said in reference to the European Stability Mechanism, the bloc's rescue fund.

In Brussels, a long-awaited deal on aid to Greece was reached late on Monday, with the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund unblocking 43.7 billion euros in loans and agreeing on the need to grant significant debt relief for decades to come.

Greece must still meet a series of agreed conditions but "the decision will certainly reduce the uncertainty and strengthen confidence in Europe and in Greece," European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said.

The OECD outlook emphasised a need for eurozone structural reforms to "boost growth by removing obstacles to investment and efficiency in service sectors."

- AFP/ir

[seletar]

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/spore-housi...2--sector.html

S'pore housing market slows down


Property Guru – 28 Nov 2012

By Romesh Navaratnarajah:


Singapore's residential property market performed weakly in Q3 2012, with the sales volume falling 11.7 and 26.7 percent in the primary and secondary markets respectively.

According to a report from Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), home sales in the prime market dropped 22 percent quarter-on-quarter with only 712 units sold last quarter, based on estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).

Moreover, the sub-sale volume declined 16.3 percent quarter-on-quarter. Leasing demand also dipped as tenants sought less expensive units in prime districts and other areas where rents are comparably lower. Rents for luxury prime units slipped by 0.2 percent to S$524 psm per annum as tenants moved to typical prime units. A rise in the number of lease terminations by companies and growth in leasing activity among expatriates impacted the rental market, the report added.

In terms of supply, new projects completed in Q3 fell 44 percent to 438 units compared with 778 completed in the previous quarter.

[seletar]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...ids-fraud.html

Block Gives Up on China Shorts, Says State Protects Fraud


Bloomberg.com
By Ye Xie, Tom Keene & Stephanie Ruhle - Nov 28, 2012 2:05 AM GMT+0800




Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters LLC, said he’s lost interest in betting against Chinese stocks and speculates the government is protecting fraudulent companies.

“China has gotten harder in the sense that the government has really taken the side of the fraud,” Block said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers” program today. “The government is working with a number of these companies to try to conceal records that are public. When you are up against that sort of strength of the ability to revise history, it becomes difficult. That is one of the reasons we’re not that interested in China anymore.”


Outside Capital

Olam is suing Muddy Waters and Block for defamation as the stock has slumped more than 10 percent in Singapore since the short seller’s first allegations against the company on Nov. 19.

Block, a lawyer, said today that he stands by Muddy Waters’report on Olam and is ready to defend himself in court. Block also said he has no plan to take outside investors’ money when asked whether Muddy Waters would start a hedge fund.

“Every now and then we’ve discussed that possibility,” he said. “I don’t think we can continue communicating with the market our short ideas the way we do now if we took outside capital.”

Block’s allegations over the past two years have increased investor scrutiny of Chinese companies trading on North American stock exchanges. The Bloomberg Chinese Reverse Mergers Index (CHINARTO), which tracks 81 Chinese companies that gained U.S. listings after buying firms that already trade, has tumbled 68 percent since the end of 2009. Companies including China MediaExpress Holdings Inc., an advertising company, have withdrawn their listings after Block alleged financial irregularities.


Curbing Access

China began limiting access to corporate filings this year after short sellers used them to highlight accounting discrepancies in companies listed abroad.

China Development Bank Corp, the state-owned lender charged with working to boost the nation’s competitiveness, is providing more than $1 billion to assist companies, including meat producer Zhongpin Inc.and Fushi Copperweld Inc. (FSIN), a manufacturer of steel wire, leave the U.S. stock market.

Since April 2010, 49 companies -- including Focus Media and7 Days Group Holdings Ltd. (SVN) -- have announced their intention to go private and de-list from U.S. markets, according to a report by Roth Capital Partners issued Nov. 5.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie in New York at [email protected];Tom Keene in New York at [email protected];Stephanie Ruhle in New York at [email protected]

[seletar]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...-to-enron.html

Muddy Waters Attacks Olam’s Purchases, Likens to Enron


Bloomberg.com
By Michelle Yun - Nov 28, 2012 12:35 AM GMT+0800


Muddy Waters LLC, the research firm founded by short seller Carson Block, likened commodity trader Olam International Ltd. (OLAM) to energy trader Enron Corp., saying it runs a high risk of failure.

Muddy Waters rated Singapore-based Olam a strong sell in a 133-page report posted on its website today, saying it values Olam on a “liquidation basis, because our opinion is that it is likely to fail.” It estimates the present value of Olam’s debt at 14 to 33 cents on the dollar.

“The problem is it’s been burning cash the entire time it’s been public, almost,” Block, the director of research for Muddy Waters, said today in an interview with Stephanie Ruhle and Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.”

Shares in Olam, the world’s second-largest rice trader, slumped to the lowest price in more than five months after the release of the report, while bonds fell to a record.

“There is no substance in their broad allegations,” Olam said today in a statement, promising a fuller response in due course. “We will clear our name and hold Muddy Waters accountable for their damaging actions.”

Olam fell 5.3 percent to $1.25 at 11:29 a.m. in New York. The shares fell 6 percent earlier in Singapore to the lowest since June 5. The company, also one of the world’s top three traders of coffee, has lost 10 percent since Block first questioned Olam’s accounting methods on Nov. 19 at an investment conference in London.


‘Poor’ Performance

While Olam has said its capital projects will have “high” returns on investment, Muddy Waters has found many are performing “very poorly,” Block said in the interview. Olam has morphed from a agricultural commodity trader into a company that also owns assets in production, processing and distribution, he said.

“It is instructive to view Olam through the lens of failed U.S. trader Enron,” Muddy Waters said in the report. “There are a number of material similarities in the way their businesses developed, and their actions.”

Block said he had “shorted” Olam, seeking to profit by selling borrowed shares now and buying them back later at a lower price.

Olam’s $500 million of 5.75 percent notes sold in September and due 2017 were quoted at 85.729 cents on the dollar as of 5:20 p.m. in Singapore, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Their yield rose to 9.515 percent from 8.157 percent yesterday.


Enron Collapse

The yield on Olam’s S$250 million ($204.5 million) of 6 percent notes due August 2018 rose to a record 8.863 percent from 5.665 percent at the start of the year, Bloomberg-compiled data show.

Olam spends on assets and records non-cash accounting gains “with the possible result being -- as in Enron Corp.’s case -- the asset quality becomes less important than the potential to recognize accounting gains,” Muddy Waters said in the report. Non-cash accounting gains were 37.9 percent of profit after tax from fiscal 2010 to 2012, the report showed.

Enron, once the world’s largest energy trader, plunged into bankruptcy in December 2001 following revelations it was using off-balance-sheet vehicles to hide billions of dollars in losses and inflate the stock price. More than 5,000 jobs and $2 billion in employee retirement funds were wiped out by the collapse. Investors sued to recover more than $60 billion in losses.


‘Black Hole’

“Olam’s fatal flaw, and one of its best kept secrets, is that its capex projects seem to be a fiscal black hole,” according to Muddy Waters, which said bondholders “should be asking where their money has gone.” Olam’s value is less than its debt and it may have to raise or refinance as much as S$4.6 billion within 12 months to remain solvent, the report showed.

Olam Chief Executive Officer Sunny Verghese, 53, yesterday stood by Olam’s debt-funded expansion as the company defends its reputation in a lawsuit.

“We don’t think it’s in the best interest of our continuing shareholders” to abandon spending plans, Verghese, who established Olam in 1989, said in an interview.

That includes committing to investments of S$3.2 billion to S$3.7 billion in fiscal 2013 to 2015, against S$3.3 billion spent from 2010 to 2012, the first three years of a six-year program, the CEO said.

Block’s remarks in London were malicious falsehoods, Olam said in its lawsuit filed in the Singapore High Court on Nov. 21. The company is seeking unspecified damages, costs and an injunction against republication of the comments.


‘Baseless Attack’

“This is a vicious, baseless attack done by somebody who has a history of creating panic,” Verghese said yesterday. “It didn’t matter whether it’s an 80-page or 240-page report. As far as we’re concerned, we have nothing to hide.”

Olam supplies 21 products from cocoa to rubber from 65 countries to 12,300 customers. It’s one of the world’s top six cotton traders. Singapore’s state-investment company Temasek Holdings Pte. is Olam’s second-largest shareholder with a 16 percent stake, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Stephen Forshaw, a spokesman for Temasek, said in a text message it’s “more appropriate for Olam to comment on this report.”


Acquisition Binge

“Olam’s ‘asset heavy’ strategy appears to be an off-the- rails capex and acquisition binge,” according to Muddy Waters, who said the “vast majority of the acquisitions we have researched are of low-quality assets that appear to bring little more than cosmetic benefits.” It said both Enron and Olam were “black boxes” to analysts and investors.

Lion Global Investors Ltd., a Singapore-based fund, sold some of its Olam stock after reviewing its position in the wake of Block’s comments in London, it said in a Nov. 23 report. The fund owned 0.15 percent of Olam shares outstanding at the end of 2010, the latest data publicly available to Bloomberg News.

“Given the uncertainty that now surrounds Olam, we have taken what we believe to be the prudent decision to reduce our exposure and will continue to keep the situation under review,” Lion Global said in the report. The fund declined to comment further today.

Block, 36, research director of Los Angeles-based Muddy Waters, has successfully bet against Chinese companies that trade in North America after raising doubts about their accounts. One target, tree-plantation operator Sino-Forest Corp., slumped 74 percent before eventually filing for bankruptcy protection in March.


Block’s Bets

The short seller profited from taking a short position in Sino-Forest, based in Hong Kong and Mississauga, Ontario, by selling borrowed shares and buying them back at a lower price.

Muddy Waters has also targeted New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc., Fushi Copperweld Inc. (FSIN) and Focus Media (FMCN) Holding Ltd. Beijing-based Fushi Copperweld, a maker of copper- clad metal wire accused of fraud by Block in April, has gained 24 percent in New York trading this year after China Development Bank Corp. offered funds for the company to buy back its shares from the public.

Focus Media, the Shanghai-based advertising company that Block claims overstated its network, posted a 23 percent gain in its American depositary receipts this year, notwithstanding the allegations. It’s now the subject of a $3.5 billion buyout offer by a group of private-equity firms including Carlyle Group LP. The deal would be China’s largest leveraged buyout.


Poor Controls

Olam “spends much more on non-acquisition capex than investors understand,” Muddy Waters said. That may mean it’s pursuing more so-called greenfield projects than is known or there are “poor internal controls and substantial cash leakage.”

The company is targeting annual profit after tax of $1 billion by 2016 through acquisitions and organic growth and continues to make “substantial progress” in achieving that goal, Verghese said in an August statement. Net income in the 12 months through June was S$370.9 million, 14 percent lower than a year earlier.

“If it’s an honest research company that is doing research with integrity and publishing a negative report about the company, we try to address the questions that are raised,” Verghese said yesterday. “If there is motivated report of this kind with somebody with this kind of reputation, then you have to defend your honor.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Michelle Yun in Hong Kong at [email protected]

[seletar]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...t-reports.html

Wen Jiabao’s Family Assisted by Ping An’s Survival, NYT Says


Bloomberg.com
By Angus Whitley - Nov 25, 2012 2:41 PM GMT+0800




Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s relatives acquired shares in Ping An Insurance Co. (2318) after an appeal in 1999 by the insurer to authorities averted the company’s breakup, the New York Times reported, citing corporate filings and copies of letters and records.

With Ping An threatened by insolvency after the Asian financial crisis, Chairman Ma Mingzhe sought a waiver from a rule that would force the company to be broken up, and he wrote to then-Vice Premier Wen on Sept. 29, 1999, detailing the insurer’s financial performance, the newspaper said.

After Ping An was granted the waiver, Taihong, a company that would later be controlled by Wen’s relatives, bought shares in Ping An in December 2002 for about a quarter of the price paid by HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) two months earlier, the New York Times reported. By 2007, the $65 million investment by Taihong was worth $3.7 billion, and the relatives’ stake of that investment probably peaked at $2.2 billion, according to the newspaper.

The New York Times reported last month that Wen’s relatives had controlled assets worth at least $2.7 billion, including holdings in Ping An, citing a review of corporate and regulatory records.

In an e-mailed statement today that didn’t mention the New York Times by name, Ping An said recent media coverage related to the company contained “serious inaccuracies, facts being distorted and taken out of context as well as flawed logic.”


’Adverse Impact’

Ping An has strictly complied with local listing rules and regulations and will take “appropriate legal action commensurate with the damage and adverse impact the media reports have caused to the company,” according to the statement.

China’s Foreign Ministry didn’t immediately reply to a fax seeking comment today. The New York Times said Wen couldn’t be reached for comment and Ma declined to comment.

It’s not known if Wen intervened on behalf of Ping An’s request for the waiver, or if he was aware of the stakes held by his relatives, the newspaper said. The New York Times said it found no indication any law was broken, no evidence Wen held Ping An shares under his name, nor any indication Wen shared inside information with family members.

While Taihong, run by Wen family friend Duan Weihong, was recorded as the Ping An shareholder, the beneficiaries of the purchase lay behind investment vehicles controlled by relatives of Wen, including two brothers-in-law, a sister-in-law, and colleagues and business partners of his wife, Zhang Beili, the newspaper said, citing corporate and regulatory documents.

Duan, in an interview with the newspaper, said she bought the Ping An shares for her personal account and received all the returns. Wen’s relatives appeared on the shareholding records by accident, the newspaper said, citing the interview.

Editor: Paul Tighe

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Angus Whitley in Sydney at +61-2-9777-8643 or[email protected]

[seletar]

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e20f2...#axzz2DU8wWVZt

Princelings profit from Chinese corruption

Financial Times
November 27, 2012 6:35 pm
By Henny Sender


Ping An, the Shenzhen-based insurance company, has always been portrayed as the underdog against the giant state-owned People’s Insurance Company of China. To some extent that is a fair portrayal. But at the same time, news reports of the crucial support of Premier Wen Jiabao in contributing to Ping An’s fortunes underscore that it may not just be the largest state-owned behemoths that depend on the largesse of the party and government.

In China, most successful entrepreneurs are as much a part of the system of personal relations as the sheltered state-owned enterprises, with all their perks which include access to cheap loans from state-owned banks, monopoly power over resources, support for mergers both at home and abroad and the ability to go to the head of the queue for listing. For both kinds of firms, political connections and political protection are a big part of the game. Indeed, if anything, such connections may be more vital for private companies.

The necessity for such connections is at the heart of the corruption at the core of the Chinese system. That corruption has now become so endemic that it suppresses real competition, makes economic growth lower and more inequitable than it would otherwise be and threatens social stability. The fact that property rights cannot be taken for granted means that capital flight has also become an issue.

The most common form of protection for otherwise vulnerable entrepreneurs is in the form of an investment from one of the private equity firms in which the princelings figure prominently. The most well known of these is, of course, New Horizon Capital, the firm started in 2005 by the son of then vice-premier Mr Wen. While he is no longer running his investment firm day to day, he still has links to it (and investors in it include many foreign banks).

Capital and a helping hand from the princelings can make a big difference, especially where rules are murky. For example, the backer of one financial firm that is in the business of introducing those who need funds to those who have excess funds frets that as this private firm grows bigger, the key to success is to secure such backing. Otherwise, this person says, too much success can doom the enterprise and it can easily be found to have violated the rules.

From abroad, observers prefer to believe that this dynamic is purely domestic. But foreigners may also be affected. For one thing, they employ the princelings. Mr Wen’s daughter Lily worked for Lehman Brothers, Jiang Zemin’s grandson Adrian worked for Goldman Sachs before joining one of the local private equity firms, Boyu. The daughter of Wang Yang, governor of Guangdong province, works for Deutsche Bank. The daughter of Chen Yuan, head of China Development Bank and himself the son of Chen Yun, one of the most venerable of the princelings, worked for Morgan Stanley before attending Harvard Business School.

If anything, investment banking, like private equity, has become far more political in hiring today than 20 years ago. Few of the first generation working for the foreigners were born with silver chopsticks in their mouths as is the case now.

In addition to employing the princelings, the foreign firms also deploy them. When a foreign bank asked for a piece of the equity in a potash deal in southeast Asia, the Hong Kong private equity firm approached agreed because “you don’t say no to a princeling”, according to one executive at the fund.

Admittedly, relationship hires are not always indefensible, although it would be naive to think that the princelings’ family ties are never a factor. Many of the princelings have had the best education and therefore boast the qualifications to justify their hiring. And it is easy to detect the hand of the well-connected at work when, in fact, it may not be. For example, some observers say that Mr Wen overruled regulators to personally approve TPG’s sale of Shenzhen Development Bank to Ping An – something that TPG denies.

Another downside, although one that is harder to measure, is that because intellectual property rights are also less than sacred, many of China’s best and brightest often prefer to live abroad. Today, many talented researchers and academics leave China for university campuses in the US from Stanford to Yale. They say that everything from promotions to research grants in China are often dispensed on the basis of party loyalty – which tends to mean ingratiating oneself with the right people. Depressingly, these people say that it will be 50 years before the system changes.

Henny Sender is the FT’s chief financial correspondent

[Rysk]

Hey! Thought you are my friend ... why ask Ah B to buy ?
He cannot buy until 2015 when market is crashed by 50%.

If he buy now, his mental well being will be affected, after ONE WHOLE YEAR of crying father crying mother (CFCM), if he end up buying now, his self esteem will be affected ...

Ah B ... dont buy ... wait ... and wait ...

We need people like yourself in the last leg of the property climax ... which is likely to be AFTER 2016 ... haha ...

DKSG

But the actual MR B (aka SELETAR airbase) already go MIA.. now only left YOUNG KOK cum INEXPERIENCE SELETAR airbase (aka MR B).. act blur continue with his copy & paste of bad news..

If that's the case, meaning he still waiting & waiting & waiting inside his rent flat lor..

[thomastansb]

Haha.. Suburban still chiong-ing all the way. Just that the high end segment is kind of shitty in the last 2 months.

But the actual MR B (aka SELETAR airbase) already go MIA.. now only left YOUNG KOK cum INEXPERIENCE SELETAR airbase (aka MR B).. act blur continue with his copy & paste of bad news..

If that's the case, meaning he still waiting & waiting & waiting inside his rent flat lor..

[seletar]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...239845/1/.html

MAS flags risks from rising corporate debt

Channel News Asia
Posted: 28 November 2012 1323 hrs


SINGAPORE: The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has warned that bad loans at banks may increase if the economy sours.

It said companies are more leveraged today than they were a year ago, and while balance sheets remain strong, profitability has dropped in line with weakening economic conditions.

"If economic conditions worsen or interest rates rise from current low levels, bank loan quality could deteriorate substantially," the MAS said in its annual Financial Stability Review.

The central bank noted that companies "appear well able to cover their interest expense".

But, the MAS said this could change if rates rise significantly.


- CNA/ir

[seletar]

http://sbr.com.sg/residential-proper...rates-escalate

Singapore Business Review
RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY | Staff Reporter, Singapore
Published: 28 Nov 2012


Fears of higher vacancy rates escalate


Residential projects due for completion next year are 2-3x more than usual.

"We retain our negative view on the Singapore residential sector as we continue to see a rising threat of vacancy with an acceleration in physical completions in 2013-15," said CIMB in a report.

Vacancy rates for non-landed private units had increased from 5.9% to 6.1% qoq in 3Q12 as take-up continued to lag physical completions.

URA estimates that completions will rise from 16.1k units in 2013 to 23.1k units in 2015, which according to CIMB is 2-3x more than the historical average occupancy rate of 8k units per year.

"This will be compounded by impending completions of HDB units following aggressive building in the last three years. Around 83% of local residents still live in HDB flats. Incremental demand should also come under pressure from the Singapore government’s continuous reassessment of its liberal immigration policies. PR conversions have tapered off, a glimpse of how tighter immigration is taking shape. Rising inventories against normalised population growth do not augur well for future take-up, in our view. While prices remain at record highs on low interest rates, policy risks remain an overhang," it said.



Physical units due for completion set to balloon in the next three years



Completion vs take-up

[seletar]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...decreases.html

China’s Stocks Decline to 2009 Low as Trading Activity Decreases


By Bloomberg News - Nov 28, 2012 4:01 PM GMT+0800


China’s stocks fell, dragging the benchmark index to its lowest level since 2009, as trading activity slumped. Materials producers and property developers led losses.

Citic Securities Co. dropped among brokerages as regulatory data showed the number of stock trading accounts that made transactions last week was the lowest since at least January 2008, excluding holidays. Zhongjin Gold Co., the country’s third-largest bullion producer, lost 3.3 percent as the metal’s price slid. Poly Real Estate Group Co. dropped the most in two months after the Xinhua News Agency reported a leading think tank recommended expanding a property tax.

The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) slid 0.9 percent to 1,973.52 at the close, its lowest level since Jan. 16, 2009, as eight stocks dropped for each that rose. The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) fell 1 percent to 2,129.16. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) lost 1.5 percent in Hong Kong. The Bloomberg China-US 55 Index (CH55BN), the measure of the most-traded U.S.-listed Chinese companies, declined 1.6 percent in New York yesterday.

When the Shanghai index first hit 2,000, “it was 10-to-12 years ago and now we’re back at square one,” Hao Hong, Bank of Communications Co.’s managing director of research, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. “Now we’re well below 2,000 and people will be looking for the next support level, which could be 5-to-10 percent below here.”

The Shanghai Composite closed below 2,000 for the first time since 2009 yesterday. The gauge broke above 2,000 in July 2000 and tripled to 6,092.06 on Oct. 16, 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg dating to 1991. It’s fallen 10 percent this year, heading for a third straight annual loss, as the economy slowed for seven quarters.

[auroraborealis]

erm... think ms or mr seletar owns PC one

But the actual MR B (aka SELETAR airbase) already go MIA.. now only left YOUNG KOK cum INEXPERIENCE SELETAR airbase (aka MR B).. act blur continue with his copy & paste of bad news..

If that's the case, meaning he still waiting & waiting & waiting inside his rent flat lor..

[seletar]

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/...o-greater-risk

MAS warns extra borrowing could lead to greater risk

Future increase in interest rates could place households under more financial pressure


by Wong Wei Han
04:45 AM Nov 29, 2012
TODAYonline


SINGAPORE - Households and businesses have borrowed more money this year compared to 2011, attracted by low interest rates, but the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has warned of the impact this could have if rates go up unexpectedly.

"Expectations of continued low interest rates could lead to some households overextending themselves. Should interest rates rise in future or the unemployment rate increase, households that are highly leveraged and affected by retrenchments would come under greater pressure. Lower income households, especially those with smaller financial buffers, could be adversely affected," the MAS said in its annual Financial Stability Review.

The report showed that household debt has grown faster than household assets since the second quarter of last year. In the third quarter of this year, household debt increased 10.4 per cent on year while assets grew by 7.8 per cent. The ratio of household debt to assets was 16 per cent, marginally higher than last year's 15 per cent.

Despite such concerns, the MAS stressed that household balance sheets remain resilient, as net wealth continues to grow at an average of 5.9 per cent per year, as it has for the last 15 years, to reach S$1.34 trillion in the third quarter of 2012, which is four times the current Gross Domestic Product.

In the corporate sector, the debt-to-equity ratio jumped to 35 per cent in the second quarter of this year, up from 30.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2011.

The MAS said that while companies appear well-positioned to cover their interest expenses, things could turn for the worse if interest rates continue to rise significantly.

As economic headwinds gather and the outlook becomes less favourable, the central bank warned businesses that "the experience in previous downturns, where severe stresses materially weakened the corporate sector's profitability and debt servicing capacity, should be borne in mind".

To keep loan quality from deteriorating, banks are being urged by the MAS to maintain prudent underwriting standards by pricing risks appropriately and keeping a diverse loan portfolio, even as the property market - a major area of exposure for Singapore banks - cools down after six rounds of government measures since 2009 to pre-empt the formation of a property bubble.

The positive effects of these cooling measures are evident as the on-year growth of outstanding housing loans moderated from 22.9 per cent in 2010 to 16.7 per cent in last year and further to 14.5 per cent in September this year, the MAS said.

And while the private residential property market continues to see robust demand this year, the central bank is confident that government measures to rein in speculation have moderated prices in the market. But the Government will continue to monitor the market closely, the MAS said, "and will not hesitate to step in, if and when necessary, to promote a stable and sustainable property market".

The MAS added that the Singapore banking system's funding profiles and asset quality have remained sound, and local banking groups continue to be well capitalised.


S'pore's economy has been resilient through global financial crisis: MAS

Growth here has slowed markedly but is still expected to be positive this year and next, the MAS said.

Looking further afield, Asia remains vulnerable to sudden surges and reversals of capital flows. This could lead to greater volatility in financial markets and risk premiums, and sharp fluctuations in exchange rates. Deterioration in current account balances and weakening of confidence could undermine growth.

Sovereign weakness, faltering economic growth and banking system vulnerabilities continue to beset the G-3 countries, particularly the euro zone. These are likely to continue weighing on confidence.

In the United States, an improvement in the debt trajectory is by no means certain. The fiscal cliff could hurt growth, with spillovers to the financial system and global economy.

[seletar]

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/spec...ll-q4-20121129

Business Times
Published November 29, 2012

Grade A office rents continue to fall in Q4

They will remain relatively flat next year, property consultancies predict


By Kalpana Rashiwala


[SINGAPORE] Grade A office rents have continued to fall this quarter, rental data from major property consultancies shows.

CBRE's estimates show that the average monthly rental value for Grade A office space has fallen 3 per cent to $9.51 per square foot this quarter, from $9.80 psf in Q3. This takes the full-year drop to 13.5 per cent, against an 11.1 per cent rise in 2011.

CBRE's Grade A basket covers the best-quality office buildings in Raffles Place, Marina Bay and Marina Centre.

Figures from Jones Lang LaSalle, too, show that the average rent in its Grade A basket - comprising best-quality buildings in Raffles Place, Marina Bay, Shenton Way, Tanjong Pagar and Marina Centre - has dipped 2.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $8.90 psf. This places the full-year decline at 8.7 per cent.

Based on Colliers International's figures, the average Grade A Raffles Place/New Downtown rent for Q4 2012 is $9.07 psf, down 2 per cent from $9.26 psf in Q3.

All three firms are predicting pretty flat Grade A rents next year.

[seletar]

http://sbr.com.sg/healthcare/in-focu...rtfall-in-2020

Singapore Business Review
HEALTHCARE | Staff Reporter, Singapore
Published: 29 Nov 2012

Singapore healthcare could hit massive $600m shortfall in 2020





Which means more out-of-pocket spending for Singaporeans.

According to the latest study of Swiss Re, Singapore healthcare costs are expected to balloon to $18.1billion by 2020.

"The market could face a potential shortfall in healthcare financing of USD600 million in 2020, which will require additional fiscal spending or higher out-of-pocket funding by individuals," it added.

Swiss Re noted that in response to what could be more indvidual spending for healthcare, Singaporeans could look to private insurance plans which have "strong value propositions to support individuals to better manage their future healthcare financing needs."

Panning out to the great Asia region, Swiss Re noted that In 2010, more than half of the regional governments had to bear over 40% of the total healthcare expenditure, with Japan covering the highest proportion (83%). The other main funding source was out-of-pocket expenses, which ranged from a low of 14% (Thailand) to 61% (India) of total healthcare expenditure.

It also noted that private prepaid plans contributed less than 10% of the total healthcare expenditure for all the markets covered in this report, with the exception of Taiwan which came in at 19%. The total healthcare costs in Asia-Pacific are projected to increase to USD2.7 trillion by 2020, from USD1.2 trillion in 2010. While the total healthcare costs in Singapore will reach USD18.1 billion by 2020 from USD8.5 billion in 2010.

"This figure is based on projections of economic growth, medical inflation and population growth in the 13 Asia-Pacific markets covered. However, there will be faster growth in emerging markets, which currently have lower healthcare expenditure as a percentage of GDP," Swiss Re said.

Based on Swiss Re's projections, the average real GDP growth rate from 2014 to 2020 for Asia-Pacific will be about 5%. Robust economic growth, especially in the emerging Asian countries, will bring additional demand to the health and medical industry.

"People and countries tend to spend more on health and medical as they get wealthier. With economic growth in Asia-Pacific, especially in emerging markets, rising household income will lead to higher spending on health and medical care," says Clarence Wong, Head of Economic Research & Consulting, Asia-Pacific, Swiss Re.

[Rysk]

erm... think ms or mr seletar owns PC one

Hopefully not!!
20th June this year, YOUNG KOK cum INEXPERIENCE SELETAR airbase talk BIG BIG "Prices have been dropping in the resale mkt"

Maybe by now already dropped 30% from the start of this thread..

Prices have been dropping in the resale market.

[seletar]

http://www.asianewsnet.net/home/news.php?id=39567&sec=2

Middle-income Singaporeans feel the squeeze, survey finds

Andrea Ong
The Straits Times
Publication Date : 29-11-2012





A survey of Singaporeans' happiness and well-being has reinforced the squeeze that middle-income households say they face from cost of living pressures.

In a similar survey six years ago, this group was the happiest and enjoyed life the most, compared to those with lower or higher incomes.

But the latest study by Dr Siok Kuan Tambyah and Associate Professor Tan Soo Jiuan from the National University of Singapore Business School shows that the reverse is now true.

Last year, the middle-income group - those with household incomes from S$2,001 to S$5,000 per person - were the least happy and enjoyed life the least. The top spot went to high-income earners who took in more than S$5,000.

"The middle class in Singapore is feeling a bit squeezed right now," said Dr Tambyah. "(Whereas) people with high income have the buffer to do things, to weather the storm a bit better."

The survey suggested that one cause of the middle-income group's gloom is the worry that they cannot afford much more beyond day-to-day necessities.

Over two-thirds of the 1,500 Singapore citizens surveyed felt they had enough money to buy the things they need. But a similar proportion felt they would not be able to pay for that little extra in life.

Close to two-thirds also said that they would not be able to afford a big-ticket purchase like a car, appliance, furniture or major home repair.

When these responses were broken down by income group, a noticeable gap emerged between the perceptions of the low- and middle-income groups and those of the high-income group.

Over 70 per cent of the first two groups said they did not have enough money for their wants, compared to about 60 per cent of the high-income group.

For those who felt unable to make major purchases, the gap was bigger: around 75 per cent versus 47 per cent.

Similarly, three quarters of the low and middle income respondents said they would not be able to make major purchases, compared to less than half of the high-income respondents.

[Leeds]

sometimes, read also must read context, i guess. tharman telling undergrads to wait abit more is not wrong. BTO supply coming up, prices will stabilise and perhaps even drop slightly. i say perhaps. furthermore, for young graduates, they have a longer timeline and income will increase. they will see more cycles, and could possibly enter at the next dip.

i may not support the party totally, but some of the ministers i do respect are KBW, tharman and tan chuan jin. i think they make sense and really do work.

Agree with your assessment of Therman, KBW and TCJ. They are the 3 ministers we need to pay attention to whenever they speak. I recall what KBW said recently:

1. BTO price s still affordable for 1st timers given the current market. - So expect no drastic change in prices for now and going forward.

2. Resale prices are stablzing but more could be done. - So expect some policies to tame resale prices soon.

3. I am confident that prices will moderate over the next few years. - So expect prices to drop moderately and gradually over the next few years. (Also consistent with what Therman had said)

The above are based on "interpretations" of what KBW had said. Of course any changes in external environment will change all the above.

[Paulder]

I really love Rysk. He is like those PAP blaster, if he don't like, everything also can hoot. No need talk rationale one.

Hope you are not too heavily stretched in your optimism of the housing market.

Hopefully not!!
20th June this year, YOUNG KOK cum INEXPERIENCE SELETAR airbase talk BIG BIG "Prices have been dropping in the resale mkt"

Maybe by now already dropped 30% from the start of this thread..