Property price is coming down fast

[basic]

Warren Buffett on CNBC: “There’s tens of billions of debt coming due every month in Italy… stopping a run is tough. You don’t get half of your confidence back.”


November 14th, 2011



Warren Buffett is on CNBC.

On Europe:
“They’ve discovered they have a fundamental flaw, which is that they can’t print money.”
“It’s not clear who can say ‘we’ll do whatever it takes’ there.”
“There’s tens of billions of debt coming due every month in Italy… stopping a run is tough. You don’t get half of your confidence back.”
“It’s very, very stuff to stop a run.”








that is to say get ready for Italy to default....every month tens of Bil of debt matured in next few months to yrs......>10x bigger than Greece...how to???.....haha.....

[basic]

ALERT: Bank Run Going On Now In Italy


November 14th, 2011



“Smart Money” Getting Out While They Can
This interview aired on Irish public tv on friday. This economist is laying it out there. A full-fledged run is underway in his opinion. The euro’s heading for collapse and its unraveling FAST.








seem like Italy is beyond help...let wait for Italy bond yield to cross 7% again, this time will shoot up above 15%......

[basic]

Obama to China: Behave like ‘grown up’ economy (China to Obama: We own you!)


November 14th, 2011





President Barack Obama served notice on Sunday that the United States was fed up with China’s trade and currency practices as he turned up the heat on America’s biggest economic rival.
“Enough’s enough,” Obama said bluntly at a closing news conference of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit where he scored a significant breakthrough in his push to create a pan-Pacific free trade zone and promote green technologies.
Using some of his toughest language yet against China, Obama, a day after face-to-face talks with President Hu Jintao, demanded that China stop “gaming” the international system and create a level playing field for U.S. and other foreign businesses.
“We’re going to continue to be firm that China operate by the same rules as everyone else,” Obama told reporters after hosting the 21-nation APEC summit in his native Honolulu. “We don’t want them taking advantage of the United States.”
Obama said China was keeping its currency value artificially low, hurting American companies and jobs. He said China, which often presents itself as a developing country, is now “grown up” and should act that way in global economic affairs.
China shot back that it refused to abide by international economic rules that it had no part in writing.
“First we have to know whose rules we are talking about,” Pang Sen, a deputy director-general at China’s Foreign Ministry said.








these 2 sure fight 1 day...let US finishes Euro 1st, then China will be next....political game, china has no fight with US....

[xenewbie]

ALERT: Bank Run Going On Now In Italy


November 14th, 2011



“Smart Money” Getting Out While They Can
This interview aired on Irish public tv on friday. This economist is laying it out there. A full-fledged run is underway in his opinion. The euro’s heading for collapse and its unraveling FAST.










seem like Italy is beyond help...let wait for Italy bond yield to cross 7% again, this time will shoot up above 15%......

dont need above 15%... 7-8% is already at a dangerous level. alot of investors and money already running outside of italy. so imo it's just a matter of time as to when it will all go down.

then again.. we don't know what will be the aftermath. because i personally feel that the recovery will be a swift one and even tho i share abit of basic's view but i feel that you are too much of a pessimist.

on a side note china's property is over valued and over heated due to greed primarily and all the gossips,news rumors about earning a fat profit. but what for so buy so many houses and build so many "empty cities"? maybe in 5-10 years time when the population in china build up then we may see "real" prices but until then i wouldn't be surprised if property prices there drop beyond 40% in these 1-3 years time.

singapore's situation is different from china so imo the arguement about china's property prices dropping 40% and beyond doesn't really apply here.

we got stable politics, low crime rate, government and corporate transparency, good justice system in place, education, medical and financial hub.

and also i believe that price growth of property in singapore is semi pegged to that of rentals demand which in turns lead to government opening the flood gates of foreigners into our country etc.

and lets not forget the people parking money into singapore either for retirement or to diversify out of unstable countires... and also all the investors like the bros and sis's here that are waiting with their hoards of cash.. so the chances of prices dropping beyond 30% is really low even if the crisis in europe did trigger.

the only losers in singapore would be the ignorant investors who buys new developments at record prices eg 1k psf for ocr. mainly aunties and uncles who only heard the juicy stories about how their neighbours earned this and that amount from property or the young chaps who didn't know that couple years back ocr property used to be only 500 psf etc.

anyway my conclusion is that property prices will be corrected and at least maintain at least 70% of their value till income levels catch up because right now i feel that things are really too hot.

[basic]

last weekend Shanghai property sales....few projects in Jiading & Annting, original sales price RMB18000 to 22000 psm, drop to RMB10000 to 13000...around 40% price cut....many viewers felt there is more downside, so pending, not buying & wait for further drop.....these 2 location are i China car city...VolksWagen, Buick, GM are all there....

300 housing agency closed down in Shenzhen alone....Beijing around 600 closed, whole china easily >6000 property shops closed in last 3 months ....more will close down in next few months...no buyers, transaction drop tremendously in last 3-4 months....

price down, volume down...same trend for China, HK & Spore.....

[jitkiat]

Warren Buffet accumulated 5% of IBM since March

I think ECB will eventually ease interest rate to near zero, same as US

[dmon]

Pride is still there?
Get down on your knees and beg
Otherwise will go down as one of the incapable presidents
When china was growing were there compassions? It was obvious a tug on the neck and fist on the head. Squeeze them

Obama to China: Behave like ‘grown up’ economy (China to Obama: We own you!)


November 14th, 2011





President Barack Obama served notice on Sunday that the United States was fed up with China’s trade and currency practices as he turned up the heat on America’s biggest economic rival.
“Enough’s enough,” Obama said bluntly at a closing news conference of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit where he scored a significant breakthrough in his push to create a pan-Pacific free trade zone and promote green technologies.
Using some of his toughest language yet against China, Obama, a day after face-to-face talks with President Hu Jintao, demanded that China stop “gaming” the international system and create a level playing field for U.S. and other foreign businesses.
“We’re going to continue to be firm that China operate by the same rules as everyone else,” Obama told reporters after hosting the 21-nation APEC summit in his native Honolulu. “We don’t want them taking advantage of the United States.”
Obama said China was keeping its currency value artificially low, hurting American companies and jobs. He said China, which often presents itself as a developing country, is now “grown up” and should act that way in global economic affairs.
China shot back that it refused to abide by international economic rules that it had no part in writing.
“First we have to know whose rules we are talking about,” Pang Sen, a deputy director-general at China’s Foreign Ministry said.








these 2 sure fight 1 day...let US finishes Euro 1st, then China will be next....political game, china has no fight with US....

[jwong71]

Warren Buffet accumulated 5% of IBM since March

I think ECB will eventually ease interest rate to near zero, same as US

warren buffet also lost confidence and run road wf his money out liao

http://www.businessinsider.com/buffe...europe-2011-11

[wind30]

Only those who are really IN china market know it for real.
Do not believe the Internet, especially Chinese Internet, 100%. even Andy xie, the perpetual china pty market bear since 2001, only said "it will", not "it has". (see that's a real bear,and his article worth reading at least for it analytical value)

My friend told me prices for his (completed) Beijing and Guangzhou pties hardly moved. One is at the 4th ring, one is at Tianhe. Both equivalent of SG's RCR. It's the volume that has dramatically dropped. Pretty much similar like SG's resale market.

half my team works in Shanghai. Will ask my colleagues in Shanghai tomorrow.

[kane]

it was amuses me how china is considered to have competed unfairly. are the americans even thinking with their brains. they've kept final good prices low for the yanks for a long time, so that they can enjoy a good standard of living. that's the reason why the iphone cost a few hundred dollars. if it was done by them, it could cost a few thousand dollars.

[fclim]

it was amuses me how china is considered to have competed unfairly. are the americans even thinking with their brains. they've kept final good prices low for the yanks for a long time, so that they can enjoy a good standard of living. that's the reason why the iphone cost a few hundred dollars. if it was done by them, it could cost a few thousand dollars.

Bloody Americans. Blaming everyone else except themselves for their problems. Where did Enron, Worldcom, Lehman and all the evil companies originate from?

[dmon]

Obvious china is holding the future

Colonization may progress the west ahead again?

[cfschan]

Being in Shanghai, my observation is that the current property's bear market is the deliberate doing of China's government to keep prices down to address a political hot potato long due for some correction. What goes on in Euro may have some impact but it is limited. There is demand still for property for a range of reasons but 2 policies since the start of this year - limiting home purchase to not more than 2, and tightening credit to developers and buyers - have made it harder for developers to hold unsold stock and for local Chinese to buy more property, and thus forced down home prices. There are many wealthy ones who can pay cash mafia style but strict rules now prevent them from doing so. If they sell from their existing possession of empty houses, they cannot reinvest in newer developments because they have still busted the limit of 2 units. It used to be that just about any 'wai di' provincial fellow who wants to buy in shanghai can do so without proper shanghai hukou (residential permit) or at least one year's tax paid in the city - there were ways to resolve these inconveniences. That window however is now closed. The domestic property bear market is a political doing, and the screws are going to stay in place until the CCP decide otherwise.

[ysyap]

Therefore these wealthy chinese men with their great fortune are seeking property investments outside China, namely HK, Taiwan and Singapore! Welcome to our shores!

[basic]

I kind of agree with you. Over the last few weeks I have been meeting with some Chinese investors and financiers; many of them have exited property market and look for investment opportunities in funding start-ups or even starting their own new business ventures with loads of cash. Overseas property investment doesn't seem to be an option to them.
Some middle class Chinese, especially those with child, in China are thinking to migrate to other countries, but the number one choice for them is US because of the living environment and education system, but most of all it is more affordable. To them the threshold to obtain the PR status through the investment route in SG is too high: S$10m vs $500,000 in US
Many construction sites in the cities I visited, show flats are empty. Viewed a few under-construction developments, price is negotiable although I did not make an offer to test the water.
In general, people are expecting price to fall more

sure...many chinese & indian will choose US than spore, better living & environment, spore is crowded & in a mess now.....all kinds of colour, language & people, rubbish rojak....

also death of Steve Jobs has great inspiration for many to move into innovative & creative enterprises....more meaningful than LKY or our govt driving for property price, to human being, only bubble burst.....steve jobs books sold 100k copy in Beijing alone in 1 weekend....LKY memoir, can't even find now in china book stores, may not even sold 10k copy for last few yrs in whole china....

[basic]

last weekend Shanghai property sales....few projects in Jiading & Annting, original sales price RMB18000 to 22000 psm, drop to RMB10000 to 13000...around 40% price cut....many viewers felt there is more downside, so pending, not buying & wait for further drop.....these 2 location are i China car city...VolksWagen, Buick, GM are all there....

300 housing agency closed down in Shenzhen alone....Beijing around 600 closed, whole china easily >6000 property shops closed in last 3 months ....more will close down in next few months...no buyers, transaction drop tremendously in last 3-4 months....

price down, volume down...same trend for China, HK & Spore.....

ChungShan started limit price last week at RMB5800 psm, which is S$110 psf....
both above Shanghai after price cutting & ChungShan case, developers claimed sell at lost money, but no choice, cash flow problems, must raise fund to continue business.....
time for developers to sell at lost.....vomit out their gain in last few yrs OR their profit already re-invest or spent or used up....that will be nice....

[basic]

it was amuses me how china is considered to have competed unfairly. are the americans even thinking with their brains. they've kept final good prices low for the yanks for a long time, so that they can enjoy a good standard of living. that's the reason why the iphone cost a few hundred dollars. if it was done by them, it could cost a few thousand dollars.

China can sue US for interest rate manipulation too.....the whole world should embargo US for this manipulation.....

China is sure 'stolen' jobs from the world...western world all have no manufacturing jobs now...without manufacturing, basically no big scale jobs, then unemployment will be serious....salary cannot compete, they should impose 1000% import tax to all china product to create jobs for their people, if they willing to work...protectionism or trade war, go ahead, good for china to hike their labour cost & go for high value added jobs, definitely >80% of chinese are not ready now.....

[ysyap]

So if China and US relationship sours, Chinese investors will not find US an attractive investment stop anymore... where else but to turn to Asia... Singapore will be high on their radar!

[Allthepies]

So if China and US relationship sours, Chinese investors will not find US an attractive investment stop anymore... where else but to turn to Asia... Singapore will be high on their radar!

sshhh, not so loud, i havent bought euff yet ; )

[ysyap]

sshhh, not so loud, i havent bought euff yet ; )

You go test test water now lah... offer a 25% discount of the asking and see how developers and agents react then let us know the result!

[hyenergix]

I can only get 1-2% discount nowadays. But I din buy bcoz economy is not looking good. Any recovery these few months is a false sense of hope. The slowdown is real.

[basic]

So if China and US relationship sours, Chinese investors will not find US an attractive investment stop anymore... where else but to turn to Asia... Singapore will be high on their radar!

US is chinese safe haven...spore is under china controlled, they feel unsafe...

[basic]

H按揭年代終結

曾經於近年大行其道的拆息按揭（H按）時代隨時告終。資金成本抽高惟拆息低企，再有銀行毅然退出H按，建行亞洲表示，近一至兩個月已不再主動提供 H按。銀行界人士認為，不排除短期內H按將會於市場消失。

至於有客戶向本報表示，向建行亞洲職員查詢H按時，該職員回應指出，H按息為H+3厘，而且不會設有鎖息上 限.

銀行傳售按揭止蝕

銀行急謀對策，除叫停新做H按外，更有消息指多家銀行出售部分按揭資產，以「割席」方式為過去兩年承做的低息貸款組合止蝕。

七月 星展香港證實退出H按

九月 滙豐突然上調按息至最高H+2.7厘，P按則增至最高P減2.1厘


HK terminate all SIBOR & SOR based housing loan...now all housing loan based on personal loan rate....banks cut lost on all SIBOR based mortgage in last few yrs....sold away those mortgage...our 3 local banks have tons of such at 1% or below......

DBS HK stopped SIBOR based housing loan, yet they continue in spore....real rubbish....will backfire themselves here big way soon....

If insist on SIBOR based, will be +3%, no upside limit if SIBOR shoot up to 10%, then 13% rate, no limit.....
this is FREE market, unlike our FULLY CONTROLLED market.....this greed will burst our property market super big to collapse in next few yrs, we kill ourselves, don't blame others....such simple philosophy also don't have, I do not know what our leader has in their mind....if govt try to bailout property, spore will be gone & disappear.....do something now instead.....

[basic]

「豬瘟」恐累美銀行蝕31萬億

面對歐債危機愈燒愈烈，雖然美國銀行業暴露於希臘、愛爾蘭和葡萄牙的債務風險程度一般，但若連同另外兩個歐 豬國意大利和西班牙的相關債務，以及信貸違約掉期（CDS）和通過歐洲銀行業帶來的間接風險，潛在損失恐高逾4萬億美元（約31.2萬億港元）。


so US banks risk in PIIGS is US$4trillion, 8x higher than Lehman bros.....if Italy fall, basically will pull down all PIIGS, France banks will also collapse....by then crisis is easily 15x bigger than Lehman.....lehman case, STI down to 1465...with this, another half??......

beside, risk on US homeland is even bigger...let wait for Nov 23 on deficit outcome....likely democrat & republican will not compromise, another round of downgrading of US rating on the way.....
when will these 2 burst together??......

[samuelk]

While I want to believe that the world economy is due for a overhaul and changes , the twist and turns and stop gap measure is amazing. I thot that when Italy fumble , that was it🏧😂 but the rescue and patch work kick in. Then France was added to the Watch list of PIIGS.
💨 it's rather unsettling but It's stll very early to announce that the time have come to dump.
IMO the self inflicted property correction is just that . A correction n speculators were caught with the remainder of the highest price before it drop. Which come one full circle. SG has already had all the cooling measure in place. Speculator would have already exit from the market and I would like to think those that are. Buying for lack of a better word are long term investors.

So what are typical would be people who subscribe to the golden rule of location location location n those that cannot afford prime would be getting location near amenities near bus stop or mrt n markets.

My gut feel is the mkt will not o er correct like what basic mention but more of moderated n balance via stamp duty or furniture voucher.
So should we buy one now ? Dun noe but if the developer have bought it at x dollar very highly unlikely the offload at a lost. Only time I would see a fire sale would be a divoice case or someone got burn I the stock mkt.

[basic]

外籍客沽萃峯帳蝕200萬

樓市氣氛回軟，中高價以至豪宅亦難獨善其身，有外籍投資者繼之前以帳面損手逾40萬元沽出灣仔萃峯一伙後，剛再以1,620萬元摸出該盤中層戶，帳面蝕逾200萬元，連使費料蝕逾280萬元.

cut lost 17%, lost 2.8mil....

Stanley Crest傳獲億元洽

消息稱，Stanley Crest洋房市傳獲買家以約1億元洽購，以面積近3,100方呎計，呎價逾3.2萬元，據悉上址在早前樓市氣氛較佳時意向價約1.6億元或以上.

early this year, 160mil,now 100mil...down almost 40%.....

世紀21富山何美英稱，黃大仙鳳德邨7座低層30室，面積約456方呎，剛以約148萬元自由市場價售出，呎價約3,246元，低市價足足達20%。

sold at 20% below market price....

actual case & fact....there are many in this thread....more if interested...

[avo7007]

So if China and US relationship sours, Chinese investors will not find US an attractive investment stop anymore... where else but to turn to Asia... Singapore will be high on their radar!

Which market is more attractive? One that have dropped 50% or one that have raised 50%? China and US always have a a combative relationship, nothing new there.......

[peterng8]

let keep this thread alive for another 1 to 2 years.....


We will see what is the outcome at that time as mentioned in these threads....then we will either praise or fcuk that particular person being a genius or blooddy idiot..either way..time will tell

[kane]

That's a good idea. This will probably be the llongest running thread in this forum.

[basic]

let keep this thread alive for another 1 to 2 years.....


We will see what is the outcome at that time as mentioned in these threads....then we will either praise or fcuk that particular person being a genius or blooddy idiot..either way..time will tell

I will not be so free to be here for so long...as & when I am free & have some fun with many jokers here...I will come to give you guys a poke....
later if you beg me to come back, I will not even bother....
fcuk yourself a idiot lor if you want to.....