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Thread: Property price is coming down fast

  1. #16711
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    http://sbr.com.sg/financial-services...ening-measures

    Singapore Business Review
    FINANCIAL SERVICES | Staff Reporter, Singapore
    Published: 08 Mar 2013

    5 Singapore banks most affected by property tightening measures


    DBS named least defensive.

    Barclays Capital have analysed banks’ mortgage risk weightings and the capital positions amids numerous rounds of property cooling measures over concerns of the property market heating.

    It found that DBS (UW) among the local Singapore banks as most affected by property tightening measures due to its low mortgage risk weighting of 6% under the internal-risk based approach.

    In Hong Kong, it's Hang Seng Bank with 5% risk mortgage risk weighting.

    Here's more from Barclays Capital:

    We believe that 1) mortgage rates will rise independent of US interest rate hikes due to tightening system liquidity in Singapore and falling returns on risk weighted assets (RoRWA) due to regulatory tightening measures in Hong Kong and 2) if competition restricts upward mortgage pricing, banks will increasingly refocus their efforts on corporate lending as RoRWA on mortgages becomes increasingly less attractive. Mortgage risk weights are currently as low as 5% for banks using the internal ratings based (IRB) approach due to low probability of default (PD) assumptions used in their internal models given historically low through-the-cycle losses on default.

    Hang Seng Bank and DBS appear most at risk: Assuming average mortgage risk weightings are raised to 15%, we find that the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios of Hang Seng Bank (UW) in Hong Kong (-34bps) and DBS (UW) in Singapore (-20bps) would likely be the least defensive with their average risk weightings at only 5-6% on our estimates. BOCHK’s average mortgage risk weighting also appears low, but its core Tier 1 ratio

    would likely remain high at 13.9% for FY13. For HSBC and STAN, Hong Kong and Singapore mortgages account for only a small part of their group loans and we estimate would only see 2-6bps shave off their core Tier 1 CARs.





  2. #16712
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    Singapore is the playground for the mega rich

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...162556670.html
    Wealth Over the Edge: Singapore
    $26,000 cocktails. Traffic jams freckled with Ferraris. The world's sternest city is now the richest. Why?

  3. #16713
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    http://www.singaporelawwatch.sg/slw/...utm_medium=web

    57,000 investment homes face higher taxes

    Straits Times
    08 Mar 2013
    By Esther Teo


    ABOUT a third of Singapore's 169,000 investment homes will face higher property levies once the Budget's new tax structure takes full effect in 2015.

    Owners of such units with an annual value of more than $30,000 - or about 57,000 homes - will pay higher taxes, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) told The Straits Times yesterday. The progressive tax rates range from 12 per cent to 20 per cent of a property's annual value.

    The other investment homes - about 112,000 properties - have annual values of $30,000 and below, so the existing property tax rate of 10 per cent will continue to apply.

    The annual value is the estimated annual rent the property may fetch. An annual value of $30,000, for instance, could apply to a suburban condominium.

    Singapore has around 962,000 owner-occupied properties and 169,000 investment homes.

    Investment homes - about 15 per cent of the total housing stock - include vacant units, an MOF spokesman said.

    Experts say the changes will affect mostly high-end homes, especially with the removal of the property tax refund concession for vacant properties next year.

    Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong said vacant units are likely to be high-end homes as more expatriates are coming in on local packages and have moved into the mid- and mass-market segments over the past few years instead.

    Without the tax concession, there might be more high-end homes coming on stream, some held by developers, and that could further dampen rents.

    Rents for homes in the prime districts of 9, 10 and 11 have already fallen 7.4 per cent in the three months to Dec 31 compared with the same period a year ago, Mr Cheong noted.

    Properties that are vacant despite reasonable efforts by owners to find a tenant, for instance, can get a full property tax refund for the duration of the vacancy. But from the start of next year, they will be taxed at prevailing property tax rates.

    Investor Anthony Ong, 48, said he expects his property taxes to increase by a "few hundred dollars" under the new tax regime. "It's not a very big impact as we don't own a very luxurious type of condo but after paying the taxes and the instalments, it will definitely have an impact on our rental yields," he added.

    As far as owner-occupied homes go, 97.8 per cent of owners will enjoy lower property taxes, 1 per cent will continue paying no tax while the remaining 1.2 per cent will face higher taxes, the MOF spokesman noted.

    Owners of homes with an annual value of $6,000 and less - there are about 9,600 owner- occupied homes in this category - will continue to pay no property tax under both tax structures. These homes include one- and two-room Housing Board flats.

    [email protected]

  4. #16714
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    http://sbr.com.sg/residential-proper...-14000-in-2014

    Singapore Business Review
    RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY | Staff Reporter, Singapore
    Published: 08 Mar 2013

    Developers' new sale units pegged at 12-14,000 in 2014


    It'll be another tough year.

    According to Knight Frank, they expect year 2014 to be a challenging year for the residential property market with the high number of homes to be completed. While the new property tax policies will only take effect starting 2014, we expect downward pressure on market sentiment in 2013 and reiterate our projection of 12,000 to 14,000 developers’ new sale units by year end.

    The increased holding cost, lower yields and ample supply conditions will affect all property investors, holding companies, REITs and developers in terms of investment returns.

    Meanwhile, the government is quite adamant in taming the property market and is likely to continue to release more supply this year. Further cooling measures can be expected if prices do not cool.

    In addition, the anticipated rise in interest rates in 2015 will cause property investors to avert committing excessively in property investment. Investors may look further afield outside Singapore such as Iskandar and London.

    Interest in Iskandar Region may pick up quite significantly following Singapore-Malaysia’s announcement of the Rapid Transit System with an estimated 90 minutes train ride to Kuala Lumpur.

  5. #16715
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    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...258721/1/.html

    National Development Minister Khaw announces several new housing measures

    Channel News Asia
    By Hetty Musfirah | Posted: 08 March 2013 1908 hrs


    SINGAPORE: A scheme that gives priority allocation for new HDB flats to first-timer married couples with a citizen child below the age of 16, will be extended to pregnant mothers from May this year.

    The Parenthood Priority Scheme will also be extended to couples who are married but without children, sometime next year.

    National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan, who announced the new housing measures in Parliament on Friday, said supply will also be ramped up with 25,000 new flats to be launched this year - 2,000 more than previously announced.

    Separately, the scheme to provide temporary housing for first-timer married couples with children below 16 years old, while they wait for the completion of their new HDB flats, will be extended to include married HDB first-timers without children.

    Mr Khaw said the Parenthood Provisional Housing Scheme has so far attracted some 200 applications.

    Another change is to allow singles to buy new HDB flats.

    Those aged 35 and above who are buying flats for the first time will be able to buy 2-room BTO flats.

    Mr Khaw said these will be for singles earning up to $5,000 as they face more financial difficulty owning a home.

    He said the Ministry is still finalising details but aims to let the first batch of eligible singles apply in the July Build-to-Order launch.

    Mr Khaw said: "These new flats will be built in non-mature estates in order to keep the prices down. They will come in two sizes - 35 square metres and 45 square metres. And we leave it to them to choose according to their needs and budget.

    "A couple of other important details are still being finalised. For example, how much should we subsidise the flats, as compared to married couples? What should the relative priority be between singles and married couples applying for these flats?

    "We will settle these outstanding issues as quickly as we can, so that the first batch of eligible singles can apply in the July BTO launch."

    Currently, singles aged 35 and above, can only buy HDB flats from the resale market.

    Mr Khaw said about 4,000 do so each year.

    He said rising resale prices have made it more difficult for singles to buy a flat.

    The needs of those who are buying a flat for a second time will also be addressed.

    The second-timer quota for 2- and 3-room flats in non-mature estates will be doubled to 30 per cent.

    Mr Khaw said the move will help second-timers who need to downgrade.

    Out of the 30 percent quota, five per cent will be reserved for divorcees or widowers with children below the age of 16.

    Mr Khaw said this will almost guarantee their ability to select a 2-room flat, and significantly increase the chances of those who apply for a 3-room flat.

    The changes will be implemented from the May BTO launch.

    The debarment period for divorcees to apply for a subsidised flat will also be shortened from five to three years.

    Mr Khaw said this will help divorcees move on with their lives, especially those with children.

    A new Studio Apartment Priority Scheme will be introduced for seniors from the May BTO exercise.

    50 percent of the supply of studio apartments will be reserved for seniors who apply for one, near their current home or near where their married children live.

    The new scheme will replace the current Ageing-in-Place Priority and the Married Child Priority Scheme which award priority through giving the seniors more ballot chances.

    Mr Khaw said: "Many multi-generational families prefer to live together or close to one another. Last year, we introduced the Multi-Generation Priority Scheme to allow them to apply for the same BTO project with a view to live close by. More than 60 pairs of families have benefited from it, not that many.

    "Dr Lee Bee Wah (MP for Nee Soon GRC) suggested that we go further to build some multi-generational flats, say with four bedrooms, to help such families live in the same flat. She advanced strong arguments on how such families could better support, especially the newlyweds, both financially as well as transmitting important cultural values.

    "I believe there is some demand but we do not know how big it is. Anyway, I have asked HDB to consider doing so in some BTO developments, to test out their demand."

    Mr Khaw also agreed with MP for West Coast GRC Foo Mee Har that many senior citizens have significant assets in their houses.

    He said: "This is a good thing, as it opens up opportunities for them to get some retirement income, for example, by subletting their flats or rooms. This year, we have increased their options by implementing the new Silver Housing Bonus (SHB) scheme to facilitate right-sizing, and the Enhanced Lease Buyback Scheme (LBS) to support ageing-in-place.

    "But many may still not be aware of the schemes or they may not have accurate information. We will step up public outreach and financial counselling to those who may benefit from these options."

    Separately, the Ministry is also planning to introduce a cap on the number of foreigner tenants in HDB blocks.

    MP for West Coast GRC Foo Mee Har had suggested a 10 per cent cap for each block, to prevent the growth of foreigner enclaves.

    Mr Khaw agreed that there should be a cap, but said some analysis will need to be done to see if 10 per cent is appropriate.

    And while implementation details are being sorted out, the HDB will reduce the maximum approved period for subletting of HDB flats and room to non-Malaysian and non-citizen subtenants, from three to 1.5 years.

    Mr Khaw said the changes will not apply to Malaysian tenants as they face fewer integration challenges.

    He said the public housing system needs to evolve with the times and a relook is necessary in the light of significant demographic and economic changes.

    He said more will be done to reduce BTO flat prices relative to incomes, and to reduce the financial burden of housing on the young.

    Mr Khaw said: "We have stopped BTO prices from rising by delinking them from resale prices. We can now pause and see what else we can do to bring BTO prices in non-mature estates to, say, around four years of salary as it was before the current property cycle started.

    "We will do so partly through cooling measures to nudge the property market down; partly by seeing if an alternative housing option can be designed.

    "One thing is clear. We are committed to restoring and maintaining the affordability of new HDB flats to the vast majority of first-timer Singaporean households. Their Singapore Dream of owning their own flats, like their parents', is safe. We will make sure of that."

    There also has to be more options to help elderly Singaporeans unlock and monetise their HDB flats.

    In the months ahead, the Ministry will initiate public discussions on housing policies to take in diverse views and to shape future housing policies.



    - CNA/de

  6. #16716
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    和今年1月相比,转售和非有地住宅的私宅价格,在上个月起了2.7%,大众私宅的平均尺价首次突破1000元。

    新加坡房地产联合交易网(SRX)的最新数据显示,中档私宅(其他中央区,RCR)和大众私宅(中央区外,OCR)私宅的涨幅分别为3.5%和5.1%,平均尺价达到1272元和1046元。

    当中,中央区外(OCR),也就是大众私宅平均尺价,更是首次突破1000元的心理阻力水平,达到1046元。

    可是,核心中央区(CCR),也就是第9、10和11邮区等黄金地段的高档私宅价格却下跌4.7%,最新的平均尺价为1788元

    => OCR resale up 5.1% to 1046psf, CCR resale down 4.7% to 1788psf
    Ride at your own risk !!!

  7. #16717
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    ....even Mr B fly airplane liao.....the seletar airport is still going flat out to cut and paste.....take a break go see how Breitling pilots fly in sync in the sky at Sentosa tomorrow afternoon....
    but all boats have been told to stay away from the area......missed the boat liao.....

  8. #16718
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    The Straits Times
    http://www.straitstimes.com
    Published on Mar 09, 2013

    New HDB flats to become cheaper

    Khaw vows to make them nearly 30% cheaper to keep homes affordable


    By Rachel Chang


    THE prices of new flats will become almost 30 per cent cheaper to keep the Singapore dream of home ownership alive, National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan pledged yesterday.

    The ambitious goal makes clear the Government's commitment to "restoring and maintaining" the affordability of flats for first-time home buyers, he told Parliament.

    Hinting at a fundamental redesign of public housing, Mr Khaw said that he wants new flat prices in non-mature estates at around "four years of salary" - what they were before the property bull run of the last six years began.

    That is, new homes in non-mature estates will be priced at four times the annual median income of flat applicants.

    This would mean a sharp drop from current prices, which are about 5.5 years of salary.

    Referring to young first-timers, the minister declared that "their Singapore dream of owning their own homes, like their parents', is safe".

    He already broke with HDB convention in 2011 by delinking Build-to-Order (BTO) prices from the rising resale market when he took over the housing portfolio.

    This meant that while the resale market has risen 12.5 per cent since, prices of new flats launched have stayed stable. Since 2007, when the current property upswing began, the resale price index has spiked 95.8 per cent.

    Yesterday, Mr Khaw made clear that he would be going much further than price stabilisation.

    Bringing down BTO prices in non-mature estates will be partly through market cooling measures, and "partly by seeing if an alternative housing option can be designed", he said.

    He did not elaborate, but analysts said the remark portended major policy changes - perhaps shorter flat leases or different classes of new flats.

    In a budget debate speech chock-full of policy announcements, Mr Khaw answered calls from MPs to meet the housing needs of groups that have been on the sidelines in the first half of his term. He had something for everyone, from singles and divorcees to second-timers and young couples waiting for their new flats to be built.

    Fulfilling a promise Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong made in last year's National Day Rally, he announced that singles aged 35 years old and above will be able to buy new two-room flats from July.

    The first batch will likely be in Sengkang, but only those earning $5,000 and less a month will be eligible, he said, as they face the most financial difficulty in getting housing.

    Lower-income families looking to buy their second new flat will now get double the chance: 30 per cent of two- and three-room flats in non-mature estates will now be for second-timers, up from 15 per cent. Of this 30 per cent, 5 per cent will be reserved for divorcees or the widowed who have young children.

    The new scheme for young families waiting for their new flats to rent subsidised flats from the HDB in the interim will also now be extended to young, childless couples. SLP head of research Nicholas Mak said that Mr Khaw's plan to slash BTO prices would reverberate through the entire property market. Demand may drain from the resale market to the new, cheaper flats.

    But with construction costs rising and curbs on foreign workers, he feared the Government might fail to meet its promised supply.

    Teacher Lim Yan Han, 24, welcomed Mr Khaw's message but said the proof of the pudding was in the eating. She and her engineer boyfriend have failed in four ballots for new flats, three in mature estates, and one in non-mature. "It is already so competitive. I'm worried that lower prices will mean more people competing for flats."



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  9. #16719
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    The Straits Times
    http://www.straitstimes.com
    Published on Mar 09, 2013

    Back to basics for public housing

    Past assumptions underpinning housing policies may no longer hold. For example, slowing economic growth means future Housing Board flat-owners may no longer benefit from large capital gains. An ageing population also means fewer young couples getting married and needing new homes. After 50 years, it's time to relook housing policies, said National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan in Parliament yesterday, assuring Singaporeans that the Government will involve them in re-examining public housing policies. Here are excerpts of his speech to Parliament.


    OUR public housing system needs to evolve with the times. Which elements in our current system remain relevant, which require strengthening, and which need overhaul? If some major changes are called for, how do we implement them without adversely affecting the vast majority of Singaporeans who own those valuable assets and are quite comfortable with the status quo?

    It is important that in doing so, we do not forget the needs of the silent majority. We must be mindful not to throw the baby out with the bath water. We must implement these changes judiciously and with heart.

    From MPs' speeches and other comments aired during Our Singapore Conversation, I distilled four issues worthy of deeper reflection.

    First, what should be the purpose of building HDB flats? The HDB flat is first and foremost a home, where couples start their lives together. But it is also an asset, which they can use to build a better life in their prime, and provide security for their retirement needs.

    In the early years of Singapore's independence, homelessness and squatter living were the norm. At that time, we were all first-time applicants of HDB flats. Having basic, no-frills, low-cost homes was top priority. As Singapore progressed from third world to the first, the quality of HDB flats improved dramatically and we have now become a nation of proud homeowners. The majority are HDB second-timers. HDB flats have become significant assets to most Singaporeans.

    We enabled this transformation through several important housing policy changes. In 1971, we allowed HDB flats to be resold for a profit. Before that, flats could only be sold to HDB at pre-determined prices. In 1989, we allowed flat owners to retain their HDB flats even when they buy a private property. Before that, they would have to sell off their HDB flats.

    In 1993, we allowed buyers to take loans based on the prevailing market value of the flat, which allowed sellers to maximise the value of their assets. Before that, housing loans were based on HDB's historical selling prices. In 2003, we allowed flat owners to sublet their flats. Before that, the underlying principle was full owner-occupation. These policy changes have benefited many Singaporeans. Many were able to upgrade their homes, and dramatically improved their quality of life. It has also allowed many to accumulate large nest eggs, to fund their retirement needs.

    Looking ahead, as we may no longer get the same kind of returns from reselling an HDB flat as in the past, how will its role as an asset be affected? If it is likely to diminish, how should we make the adjustments? How will any such adjustments impact different groups of Singaporeans with different aspirations and needs?

    Second, what kind of housing should the Government provide to support future needs? Over the years, we have widened the range of choices, in terms of flat types and designs, to meet a wide range of aspirations. Many are now clamouring for the HDB to return to basics and its original mission of helping Singaporeans own a basic home. But what does "returning to basics" mean?

    Returning to basics?

    DOES returning to basics mean that we should focus only on HDB flats? Where should we set the income ceiling for HDB flats? Should we lower it, raise it or remove it altogether? What about the upper middle class? Should we, for example, stop offering executive condominiums (ECs)?

    Does returning to basics mean that we return to pre-2003 days of strict owner-occupation? How will this affect the many retirees who rely on the income from subletting or the younger homeowners who use it to help support their lifestyle needs?

    Does returning to basics mean that we return to pre-1989 days when we require HDB flat owners to sell off their flats when they buy a private residential property? How will this affect the plans of many Singaporeans who aspire to live in a private condo and use their HDB flat for rental income?

    Third, how do we ensure the affordability of new HDB flats for a new generation of newlyweds? Global liquidity and low interest rates since the global financial crisis of 2009 have caused house prices to appreciate sharply, more than income growth. Affordability has worsened.

    Whilst high prices make homeowners happy, it has caused anxiety amongst young buyers as well as their parents. Some couples look to their parents for help, but this may be at the expense of their parents' retirement savings.

    We will do more to reduce BTO (build-to-order) flat prices relative to incomes, and reduce the financial burden of housing on our young. One way is to increase housing grants for families with children to partly improve affordability and reward parenthood. However, even as we make new HDB flats cheaper, we must continue to encourage prudence and avoid over-spending on housing.

    In the earlier days, a three-room flat was acceptable to many. Now, it is a four-room flat or even a five-room flat or EC. What can a young graduate couple in the workforce for two years reasonably aspire to? What about a lower-income household? Are these aspirations within their means? Will they get into trouble if individual circumstances change or when the economy heads south? As a government, how can we help meet newlyweds' aspirations, while also ensuring they make prudent and sustainable purchases?

    Keeping flats affordable

    FOURTH, how should public housing respond to the ageing of our population? When our population was young and incomes were rising across the board, public housing was an effective way of sharing the fruits of economic growth.

    But as our population ages and economic growth moderates, we have to be much more proactive and creative in working out options to help elderly Singaporeans unlock and monetise their HDB flats. We have tinkered with the Lease Buyback Scheme, and introduced some right-sizing incentives. What else can we do?

    Our public housing policies have been highly successful in enabling the vast majority of Singaporeans to own their homes. The opportunity to own homes has not been confined to those in the high or middle income groups. Low income Singaporeans too have benefited. This is quite unique in the world.

    A relook is however necessary in the light of significant demographic and economic changes. The primary mission of HDB to offer an affordable flat for the majority of Singaporeans will remain unchanged. Fortunately this is within our control as we set BTO prices and HDB is the largest housing developer.

    We have stopped BTO prices from rising by delinking them from resale prices. We can now pause and see what else we can do to bring BTO prices in non-mature estates to, say, around four years of salary as it was before the current property cycle started. We will do so partly through cooling measures to nudge the property market down; partly by seeing if an alternative housing option can be designed.

    One thing is clear; we are committed to restoring and maintaining the affordability of new HDB flats to the vast majority of first-timer Singaporean households. Their Singapore Dream of owning their own flats, like their parents', is safe.

    At the same time, with the ageing population and the bulk of the seniors' savings tied up in their HDB flats, we have to press on with more options for the seniors to unlock their assets.

    We should organise several Our Singapore Conversation discussions to explore some of these issues with fellow Singaporeans. I invite concerned Singaporeans of all ages to mull over these issues with us. Share with us your worries, your fears, your hopes and your dreams. We hope to hear many views and ideas so as to better inform our housing policies.

    Let us work on the challenges together and shape better housing policies for our future generations.








  10. #16720
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    this govt and khaw are behind the curve. People have been calling for such measures for yrs.

  11. #16721
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    http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%...10-407548.html

    More flats set aside for divorcees, downgraders




    By Janice Heng
    The Straits Times
    Monday, Mar 11, 2013




    SINGAPORE - Two groups are going to find it easier to get a new Build-to-Order flat from May: those who are downgrading and divorcees applying a second time to buy a flat from the HDB.

    This follows a doubling in the quota of two-room and three-room flats in non-mature estates for the second-timers, from 15 per cent to 30 per cent.

    In announcing the move on Friday, Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan said: "This will help second-timers needing to downgrade."

    Of the quota, 5 percentage points will be reserved for divorcees or the widowed who have children younger than 16.

    This will "almost guarantee" that they will be able to choose a two-room flat and "significantly increase" the chances of those who apply for a three-room flat, said Mr Khaw.

    From this month, divorcees will also be allowed to get a flat more quickly.

    They can apply for or own two separate subsidised flats three years after their divorce instead of having to wait five years.

    The time bar does not apply if they are buying a new flat with a new spouse or their parents.

    "This will help them move on with their lives, especially those with children," said the minister.

    The move, he said, is in line with a suggestion from Mr Edwin Tong (Moulmein-Kallang GRC).

    Mr Tong had earlier asked if the ministry could look at giving priority to divorced parents with custody of the children, either in the purchase or rental of flats, as "this is a very vulnerable group of persons".

    The ministry on Friday announced another tweak to make it easier for divorcees.

    From now, if one of them wants to buy a subsidised flat during the debarment period, he or she does not need to get the ex-spouse's permission as long as the buyer has legal custody of all the children, who must be younger than 18 at the time of the divorce.

    Previously, the requirement was that the children must be younger than 16.

    The changes come against a backdrop of a growing number of applications from second-timers that the Government has been trying to tackle.

    Mr Khaw said the second-timer numbers doubled in the last two years to 30,000 in 2012.

    As a result, the Government tripled the quota of BTO flats for them in non-mature estates last March to the current 15 per cent.

    The move reduced the application rates "significantly" to about 10 applicants per unit, he added.

    [email protected]

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    http://business.asiaone.com/A1Busine...11-407696.html

    Supply of rental flats to be raised to 60,000



    Janice Heng
    Singapolitics
    Monday, Mar 11, 2013





    SINGAPORE - The Government is raising the supply of rental flats further to 60,000, after already raising it to 50,000 last year, Senior Parliamentary Secretary for National Development Maliki Osman said on Monday during the debate on Budget 2013.

    The new target is up from the Government's former promise to build 57,000 rental flats by 2015.

    Responding to MPs' concerns, Dr Maliki said the public rental scheme has rules to help the vulnerable "while ensuring that we do not encourage imprudent behaviour or erode the work ethic." But in applying the rules, the Government will consider the merits of each case and exercise flexibility and compassion, he added.

    Dr Maliki also noted that although market rents have risen significantly, the Government has not adjusted the public rental structure since 2006 and has no plans to do so.

    As for MPs' calls to let more qualify for rental flats, Dr Maliki said the Government will continue to review their rules from time to time, and will be sympathetic in applying the rules.

    For instance, though there is an income ceiling of $1,500 a month, the Government looks at each case and is prepared to offer rental flats to those in financial difficulties even if their income is above that level, he said.

    Workers' Party MP Lee Li Lian (Punggol East) noted that there were 11,736 foreign spouses on Long Term Visit Passes here who are disqualified from getting rental flats, and that many such families are needy. She asked under what conditions rental flats have been given to Singapore citizen with foreign spouses.

    To that, Dr Maliki said that only Singapore citizen households qualify because rental flats are heavily subsidised. "We recognise the needs of low-income citizens with foreign spouses, and do consider them on a case by case basis, but the priority goes to Singaporeans," he said.

  13. #16723
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    http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohu...521-9702115057}

    Property worries keep STI subdued amid global rally

    Straits Times
    11 Mar 2013
    By Goh Eng Yeow


    THERE was none of the celebratory mood here that transfixed other major bourses as Wall Street hit record-high levels almost four years to the day after bottoming out on March 9, 2009.

    While the Dow Jones Industrial Index went on a record-smashing streak, charging to ever-higher levels after crossing its 2007 all-time high on Tuesday last week, the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) stayed a tad subdued, ending the week with only a 0.6 per cent rise to 3,289.53.

    This marks a rare occasion where the local stock market is refusing to imbibe the intoxicating rallying spirits that appear to be taking hold of global bourses once more. Still, the subdued sentiment is understandable.

    Just as other bourses such as Tokyo and Hong Kong were getting ready to party once again last Friday, property counters here were spooked by talks that the Government was planning yet another round of cooling measures for the private residential market.

    It triggered sell-offs in stocks like property giant CapitaLand, which fell 2.95 per cent to $3.62 as it sank to its lowest levels in three months, and caused the STI to end in the red with a drop of 9.01 points, or 0.27 per cent.

    These speculations, which relate to a possible slashing in the mortgage servicing ratio or the proportion of monthly income that a borrower spends to service his monthly mortgage instalments, are not new.

    In fact, they had occasionally surfaced in the past two months since the Monetary Authority of Singapore in January cut the mortgage servicing ratios for Housing Board flats from 40 per cent to 35 per cent of a borrower's gross monthly income.

    But traders were jittery that the rumours might have credence, since the Government took the market by surprise recently by imposing lending curbs on motor cars, capping such loans to a maximum of 60 per cent of a car's price and their tenures to within five years.

    Nor is this their only headache about the property sector.

    The market will also have to weigh the implications of National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan's ambition to drive down the price of new HDB flats, even though he has not offered any details on his plan.

    This is in view of the fact that the pool of HDB upgraders buying private condominiums may dry up if the resale HDB market is affected by the Government's move to bring down the prices of Build-to-Order flats.

    Seen in a broader perspective, however, the cooling measures - whether they are taking place in the housing or the motor car market - can only be good for consumers in the longer term, as they help to defuse any speculative bubble that may be in the midst of forming here.

    It is also worthwhile to note that even though Wall Street ended on a high note last Friday, the response to news of the stronger-than-expected number of 236,000 jobs created in the United States last month has been relatively muted.

    One fear is that the improving job situation may be a sign that the world's No. 1 economy is on the mend, and force the US central bank to raise interest rates earlier than the envisaged 2014 deadline it had earlier set.

    Given the close manner in which local interest rates shadow those in the US, any rates hike would be calamitous for the thousands of borrowers who may have to cough up extra cash to service their mortgages and car loans.

    Better to be safe now than sorry later. True, the STI may not get anywhere near its October 2007 all-time high of 3,865 at the rate it stays dithering around the 3,300 resistance levels, but it may have less distance to fall if the party on Wall Street screeches to a halt.

    [email protected]

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    http://www.bluta.com.sg/blog/2013/02...ks-and-nation/

    45% Foreigners – The Perfect Property Storm For Our Banks and Nation

    Posted by BLUTAdmin
    Categories: Singapore Property
    Feb 062013



    In our earlier commentary on the 6.9 million Population White Paper, we mentioned that a “projection” of 45% foreigner mix could be a disaster waiting to happen. In fact, we are actually more worried about that “45% will be foreigners” statement than the 6.9 million population. Even with the 55% Singaporeans in 2030, there’s also the doubt that all of them will be ”core” Singaporeans that have strong, cultivated ties to Singapore.

    As many people have pointed out, they are concerned with the dilution of “true-blue Singaporeans” and from a Singapore property perspective, we have good reasons to be concerned. As many have cautioned, foreigners (and even newly minted citizens) do not have strong ties to Singapore and our community; As foreigners, Singapore is not their home. Naturally, their presence will be more transient; they may leave as they please.

    So, let’s start off with the assumptions we’re making. We’re postulating that the foreigner mix will be similar to the present, with proportionate numbers of Permanent Residents (PRs), work permit and employment pass holders, domestic helpers and other smaller groups, such as students. Even if the mix were slightly different, we’re assuming that it would become more heavily skewed to PRs and employment pass holders. This is precisely the group that would have the financial resources to participate in the Singapore property market.

    With a greater overall percentage of foreigners compared to the present, it can be deduced that the proportion of Singapore property in foreign hands (including perhaps, public housing owned by PRs, not that we agree) will be higher too. That means, inevitably, a higher percentage of foreigners will be loaning from our banks. Just as it is now, most property owners – both foreign and local – will be leveraged when it comes to their property purchase. What that means is they will be owing Singaporean banks up to 80% of their property price, in addition to interest.

    One wonders how leveraged our local banks are as well; what is their reserve compared to the amount they have given out in housing loans? Let’s take a look at it in our scenario below.

    So, that’s how our scenario starts off. We have the 45% foreigner mix, in a total population of 6.9 million, as “projected” by the White Paper. Let’s assume 700,000 housing units are sufficient for this population, and everyone has found something they like, be it private or public property. We go about our lives, working to grow our GDP and pay off our 30-year housing loans.

    But we aren’t doing so in a vacuum, are we? The thing about global crises is that they’re kind of like a storm wave crashing over a boat. If the boat is stable enough, and isn’t over-leveraged by a heavy cargo on the top deck, it can probably withstand smaller waves indefinitely. But financial systems these days are trickier than boats. All it takes is that one big wave, hitting at just the right moment; perhaps just when the cargo was skewed 45% off to one side by a previous wave…

    A global crisis severe enough to affect multinational companies and their foreign employees could see those foreigners leaving our shores in droves. It will be akin to a sudden vacuum, which is always followed by an implosion, whether literally or figuratively. Such a crisis will be bad enough that some maximally leveraged foreigners will just leave, debt be damned. Now, we are not suggesting that foreigners in Singapore will fail to honour their loans, we simply wish to point out the reality that such an option is clearly available to them with little impact once they have left Singapore for good. This isn’t without precedent; in Dhubai, suddenly bankrupt expatriates abandoned exotic supercars by the roadside in their panicked exodus, to evade a mountain of lavish credit.

    While it is doubtful that Singapore will throw them in jail for going into negative equity, there will be a few that will just throw in the towel and run back home. It is doubtful that our banks will be able to pursue the debt to foreign shores.

    In any economic crisis when property owners fail to service their mortgages, banks would, based on the terms and conditions of the applicable mortgages, pursue against these property owners. At times, these property owners could be made to pay up or made bankrupt. What happens if the property owner is a foreigner? Will the bank be able to go after that individual if he or she has fled the country? How much longer will it take for the bank to process a mortgagee sale, for example, if the person is no longer in the country? We would imagine the process to be difficult and long drawn simply because the bank needs to prove that it has tried its best in locating the owner.

    Of course, with more properties being occupied by foreigners going forward, the risks are also not coming solely from the foreign home owners, but also the tenants. In a bad economy when foreigners inevitably leave, a higher percentage of foreigners will directly translate to a larger property glut with more unoccupied units, bringing unprecedented pressure on local property prices.

    As with the worst of storms, this will feed back into a new cycle of defaulters and bankrupts, and even more foreigners leaving. The higher percentage of foreigners projected in 2030 amplifies this effect. Currently, two-thirds or more of the population is made of Singaporeans, so the risk of such a scenario is tempered by the majority of property owners and occupiers being Singaporeans. If there is indeed a near-future economic crisis, our banks are probably quite prepared and none of our local banks are likely to be too adversely affected.

    But with a 45% foreigner mix, our banks take on higher risks due to the change in population composition. During the last two economic crises in 1980s and 1990s, property prices dropped by more than 40%; at that time, the foreigners only made up 14% and 25% of the total population, respectively. Is our system prepared for such a shock?

    That brings us back to our question: what kind of reserve do our banks have? Well, every bank maintains a capital adequacy ratio* (CAR), which is set by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to ensure that banks have enough capital to deal with major economic crises.

    The banks need to ensure that its capital adequacy ratio sufficient. If MAS’ current CAR was derived with data from the crisis of the 80s or 90s, when the ratio of foreigners to Singaporeans was much lower, it may no longer be relevant. A higher percentage of foreigners in 2030 (from 14% to 25% to 45%), implies more foreigners owning properties; this will likely render the CAR requirement outdated. Thus the projected 6.9 million people, of which 45% are foreigners, will adversely affect property risk in Singapore. If not sufficiently stringent with the CAR, our banks may well be under a lot more risk than previously experienced. At that point Singapore herself will be at risk, as we ponder bailouts of our local banks.

    Is that 1% to 2% growth worth the risking the nation in a perfect storm?

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    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...92B15S20130314


    WHO confirms 15th case of deadly new virus in Saudi Arabia

    By Kate Kelland
    LONDON | Thu Mar 14, 2013 7:00am EDT


    (Reuters) - A Saudi man infected with a deadly new virus from the same family as SARS has died, becoming the ninth patient in the world to be killed the disease which has so far infected 15, the World Health Organization said on Tuesday.

    The 39-year-old developed symptoms of the novel coronavirus (NCoV) on February 24 and died on March 2, several days after being hospitalized, the WHO said in a disease outbreak update.

    NCoV is from the same family of viruses as those that cause common colds and the one that caused the deadly outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) that first emerged in Asia in 2003. The new virus is not the same as SARS, but similar to it and also to other coronaviruses found in bats.

    The WHO first issued an international alert in September after the virus infected a Qatari man in Britain who had recently been in Saudi Arabia.

    Symptoms of NCoV include severe respiratory illness, fever, coughing and breathing difficulties.

    "Preliminary investigation indicated that the (latest Saudi)patient had no contact with previously reported cases of NCoV infection," the WHO said. "Other potential exposures are under investigation."

    Nine of the 15 people confirmed to have been infected with NCoV have died. Most cases have been in the Middle East or in patients who had recently traveled there.

    Research by scientists in Europe has found that NCoV is well adapted to infecting humans and may be treatable with medicines similar to the ones used for SARS, which killed a tenth of the 8,000 people it infected.

    The Geneva-based WHO said it was monitoring the situation closely and urged its member states to continue surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections and to carefully review any unusual patterns.

    "WHO is currently working with international experts and countries where cases have been reported to assess the situation and review recommendations for surveillance and monitoring," it said, adding that national authorities should "promptly assess and notify" it of any new NCoV cases.

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    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...260082/1/.html

    Leaders wrestle with austerity as EU jobless fears rise

    Channel News Asia
    Posted: 15 March 2013 0532 hrs


    BRUSSELS: European Union leaders on Thursday wrestled with German demands for strict austerity and a French-Italian push for growth-friendly spending at a summit coloured by fears that rampant unemployment is destroying the bloc.

    As thousands protested over European jobless lines stretching to 26 million, outgoing Italian premier Mario Monti urged his peers at an EU summit to let Italy, and other countries facing public finance pressures, spend to create more jobs.

    Failing that, he warned, there would be a voter backlash such as the one he suffered last month.

    A professional EU politician of many years standing in Brussels, Monti said his caretaker Italian government had done everything asked of it by the EU, but that "public support for the reforms, and worse, for the European Union, is dramatically declining."

    Flexibility as opposed to rigid austerity "would be the best message to counter the mounting wave of populism and disaffection with the EU," he underlined.

    A brash anti-austerity party won a stunning 25 per cent of the vote in last month's Italian elections, a warning for German Chancellor Angela Merkel who faces a general election in September.

    However, Merkel's polling position has rarely been stronger, and at the close of the first session of summit talks on the economy, she said the benefit of Monti's reforms would be seen in the fullness of time.

    EU President Herman Van Rompuy said the leaders meeting in Brussels had "reconfirmed our overall economic strategy."

    Amid heavy security, the summit coincided with an anti-austerity rally nearby that organisers said drew 15,000 demonstrators, during which dozens were arrested after breaking into a building adjacent to the venue.

    The 17 eurozone leaders stayed on for their own talks, joined by Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem who chairs the Eurogroup of counterparts due to meet later on Friday to try and fix a multi-billion-euro bailout for Cyprus -- the fifth for an EU state since Greece first needed rescuing three years ago.

    French President Francois Hollande said the "only priority" leaders had to face was finding fresh ways to boost growth and get people back working.

    The Socialist leader has admitted his government will not be able to cut its public deficit to the EU limit of 3.0 per cent of gross domestic product this year, coming in instead at 3.7 per cent -- which requires another year of grace from Brussels.

    This, Paris is expected to get.

    "It's not black and white," said Van Rompuy of the economic challenges ahead. "Nuances matter," he added, citing "many 'shades of grey'."

    Youth unemployment is running at more than 50 per cent in Greece and Spain, and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said Europe had "to explain our policies better."

    He warned: "I can't rule out us running the risk of a social revolution or rebellion."

    Among the protesters, Mads Hadberg of Denmark, a 25-year-old student, asked: "Why should the people be paying for the crisis the banks created... People are losing jobs, health benefits, pensions -- and the rich are getting richer."

    Against this backdrop, hopes rose in Cyprus that a deal on its long-delayed financial rescue could be sealed come Friday's finance talks, which were also to be attended by International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde.

    "I do hope that by tomorrow we can negotiate and find a solution," said new Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades.

    The two-day Eu summit meeting opened with Hollande calling on his fellow leaders to lift an arms embargo on Syria, in order to help insurgents fighting the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

    France is ready to "take its responsibilities" and supply weapons to Syria's rebels if it cannot convince its European partners to lift an arms embargo, Hollande said. The issue is to be tackled by leaders on Friday morning.

    Hollande held head-to-head talks on the question with British Prime Minister David Cameron beforehand, vowing: "We are ready to support the rebellion."

    At the Friday morning session, heads of state and government will also discuss relations with key partner Russia.





    - AFP/jc

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    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...260155/1/.html

    Retail sales fall 2.0% on-year in January 2013

    Channel News Asia
    Posted: 15 March 2013 1340 hrs


    SINGAPORE: Singapore's retail sales fell 2.0 per cent on-year in January 2013, due mainly to sharply lower retail sales from food and beverage outlets and department stores.

    According to the Department of Statistics (DOS), this was a result of the Chinese New Year holidays occurring in January 2012, compared to February this year.

    Excluding motor vehicles, the Department of Statistics (DOS) said retail sales went down by 4.9 per cent compared to a year ago.

    Retail sales of supermarkets, apparel and footwear, recreational goods, telecommunications products and computers, watches and jewellery and provision and sundry shops also registered declines of between 3.2 per cent and 8.7 per cent.

    In contrast, retailers of motor vehicles recorded a 10.5 per cent increase in sales, while furniture and household equipment retailers reported a 6.8 per cent sales growth.

    In the food and beverage services sector, retail sales dipped 4.9 per cent on-year in January.

    In particular, receipts of restaurants decreased 11.1 per cent.

    Compared to December 2012, DOS said overall retail sales declined 1.4 per cent in January 2013.



    - CNA/xq

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    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...-measures.html

    Singapore’s February Home Sales Decline to 14-Month Low on Curbs

    Bloomberg.com
    By Pooja Thakur & Klaus Wille - Mar 15, 2013 1:23 PM GMT+0800


    Singapore’s home sales plunged 65 percent to a 14-month low in February after the government introduced its seventh round of cooling measures to cool record home prices.

    Home sales dropped to 708 units in February from a revised 2,016 units in January, according to data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority today. That’s the smallest number of residences sold since December 2011, when sales declined to a two-year low of 632 units.

    Singapore home prices reached a record in the fourth quarter amid low interest rates, raising concerns of a housing bubble and prompting the government to widen a four-year campaign to curb speculation prices in Asia’s second-most expensive housing market. Knight Frank Pte cut its estimates for new home sales for 2013 by 20 percent and expects annual sales to range between 12,000 and 14,000 units.

    “The government’s measures are starting to take effect,”said Vijay Natarajan, a Singapore-based analyst at UOB-Kay Hian Pte. “In addition, fewer units were offered because of the Chinese New Year. Over the coming months, I expect volumes to decline further.”

    The city’s businesses were shut on Feb. 11 and Feb. 12 for the Chinese New Year holiday, limiting sales opportunities over an extended weekend.

    Home sales reached 22,699 units in 2012, according to calculation by Bloomberg News based on the government data, which dates back to 1996.

    Q Bay Residences in the city’s northeast, developed by Far East Organization and Fraser & Neave Ltd.’s property unit, sold 74 homes last month, while buyers bought 84 units at Topiary in north-central Singapore, according to the data.

    Property Measures

    The latest measures included an increase in the stamp duty for homebuyers by between 5 percentage points and 7 percentage points, with permanent residents paying taxes when they buy their first home. Singaporeans will also have the levy starting with their second purchase.

    Singapore also plans to raise taxes for luxury homeowners and investment properties. The higher tax will apply to the top 1 percent of homeowners who live in their own residences, or 12,000 properties, Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said in his budget speech on Feb. 25. He said in a Feb. 28 interview the property market is still “in a wrong part of the cycle.”

    Loan Limits

    The government also tightened loan-to-value limits for buyers seeking a second mortgage, referring to the amount they are allowed to borrow relative to the value of their properties. The cash down payment will also rise to 25 percent from 10 percent starting from the second loan, it said.

    Singapore has been attempting to rein in prices since 2009, when the government barred interest-only loans for some housing projects and stopped allowing developers to absorb interest payments for apartments still being built.

    Earlier steps taken by Singapore to ease the property market included imposing additional taxes on foreigners and companies buying properties, and moving to curb the trend of so-called shoebox apartments. In October, it restricted home-loan maturities to 35 years and required tighter loan-to-value limits for loans exceeding 30 years.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Pooja Thakur in Singapore at [email protected]

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    http://www.bluta.com.sg/blog/2013/03...ack-to-basics/

    Minister Khaw Tackles Affordability – Back to Basics?

    Posted by BLUTAdmin
    Categories: Singapore Property
    Mar 15 2013



    Just a few days ago, Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan highlighted calls for the Housing and Development Board (HDB) to return to basics and the original mission of providing affordable housing for Singaporeans. This prompted him to define what “returning to basics” means. He mentioned that the HDB’s primary mission (to provide affordable public housing) remains unchanged, and a potential target could be an affordability ratio of 4 in non-mature estates. In other words, BTO prices of such flats would be four times median annual income, compared to the current nine or higher.

    But how does that compare to the yesteryears? Some comparisons have used graduates in the Seventies, who were earning about $1,000 a month, when new HDB flats cost $17,000, $20,000 and $35,000 for three, four and five-room flats respectively. That placed a five-room flat nicely under an affordability ratio of three.

    Likewise in the Nineties, fresh graduates were earning $2,000 a month, with a new five-room going for $70,000, so the affordability ratio was still under three.

    In contrast, a fresh graduate earns $2,678 a month on average, which is a real stretch to pay for current new HDBs that cost $300,000 or $380,000.

    However, one must remember that a graduate in the Seventies was quite a rare animal, and $1,000 a month was considered a handsome some in those days. Even in the Nineties, graduates were quite uncommon, so a $2,000 starting pay was considered quite high.

    In these highly-educated days, graduates are the norm, and the $2,678 monthly salary is reflective of a much more average qualification than the Seventies or Nineties. In light of this, we feel that an affordability ratio of four, which roughly translates to about $130,000, is a good target.

    However, we also suspect that this target number will be for a four or even three-room HDB flat, and not the five room benchmark of the past. Of course, we could be wrong, and if Minister Khaw guns for the $130,000 five room flat, we would be highly impress with his resolve. That would undoubtedly have a positive effect on the resulting affordability of the older resale flats. We look forward to seeing innovative and fresh ideas coming from MND to address this issue.

    It remains to be seen what Minister Khaw has up his sleeve in order to make this goal a reality, however. Stay tuned for our follow-up article, where we explore the many options he may take to bring affordability back to the HDB market.

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    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...y-at-risk.html

    Europe Braces for Fresh Turmoil With Cyprus Deposit Levy

    Bloomberg.com
    By Patrick Donahue - Mar 18, 2013 9:40 AM GMT+0800


    Europe braced for renewed turmoil as outrage in Cyprus over an unprecedented levy on bank deposits threatened to derail the nation’s bailout. The euro tumbled.

    Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades, who bowed to demands by euro-area finance ministers to raise 5.8 billion euros ($7.6 billion) by taking a piece of every bank account in Cyprus, appealed to lawmakers in Nicosia to ratify the levy today. The vote was delayed from yesterday over the opposition of the European Central Bank amid talks to restructure the levy.


    While Cyprus accounts for less than half a percent of the 17-nation euro economy, the raid on bank accounts risks triggering new convulsions in the financial crisis that began in 2009 in Greece. Moody’s Investors Service said that the move is a significant step toward limiting support for bank creditors across Europe and shows that policy makers will risk financial market disruptions to avoid sovereign defaults.

    The tax is “a worrying precedent with potentially systemic consequences if depositors in other periphery countries fear a similar treatment in the future,” Joachim Fels, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in London, wrote in a client note.

    Scenes of Cypriots lining up at cash machines raised the specter of capital flight elsewhere and threatened to disrupt a market calm since the ECB’s pledge in September to backstop troubled nations’ debt. With no government in Italy, Spain in the throes of a political scandal and Greece struggling to meet the terms of its own bailout, more turmoil could hamper efforts to end the crisis.

    ‘Sell Euro’

    The euro fell below $1.30, sliding 1.4 percent to $1.2900 at 10:30 a.m. in Tokyo. Anticipating gains in haven markets, Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, said on Twitter that the concern in Cyprus “moves risk-on trade to backseat.” He added: “Sell euro as well.”

    Anastasiades exhorted political factions to support the deposit levy, which he pledged is a one-off measure that will avert a collapse of the financial system that in turn would have led to the country’s exit from the euro.

    “A bank collapse would cause indescribable misery,” Anastasiades said in the televised address. He called the crisis the country’s worst moment since the 1974 Turkish invasion that has left the country divided.

    Depositor Swap

    In a bid to ease a run on banks, depositors who keep their account for two years will receive securities linked to future revenue from the country’s gas reserves, the president said.

    He said he would also seek to soften the impact on savers. The potential changes include taxing deposits less than 100,000 euros at a 3 percent rate, while setting the levy at 10 percent between 100,000 euros and 500,000 euros and at 12 percent for deposits greater than that, Antenna TV reported, without saying how it got the information.

    The bank tax was the alternative to imposing losses on investors in a so-called bail-in, a step opposed by the Cypriot government, the European Commission and the ECB, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on ARD television last night.

    “It’s up to them to explain it to the Cypriot people,” Schaeuble said. “Clearly, the taxpayer should not be asked” to rescue banks from insolvency, he said, adding that Cyprus faced a “very difficult time” unless it accepts the tax.

    Smaller Bailout

    The levy -- as of now 6.75 percent of all deposits up to 100,000 euros and 9.9 percent above that -- whittles the euro- area’s bailout of Cyprus to 10 billion euros, down from an original figure of about 17 billion euros, near the size of the nation’s 18 billion-euro economy.

    Cyprus is considering changing the structure of the taxes to charge big depositors more and small account-holders less, a a European official said. The European Commission, the IMF and the ECB would support that as long as the amount raised stayed the same, the official said.

    Euro finance ministers reached agreement early on March 16 after 10 hours of talks. Cypriots awoke to find bank transfers already frozen as the government prepared to impose the tax before banks reopen tomorrow. Today’s bank holiday in Cyprus may be extended by at least one day, state-run broadcaster CYBC reported, without saying where it got the information.

    ECB Pressure

    Anastasiades, whose minority government took office less than three weeks ago, said the ECB would have stopped providing liquidity to one of the country’s banks on tomorrow, leading to its collapse, he said.

    The president will meet with lawmakers today before parliament’s session on the measure begins at 4 p.m. His Disy party holds 20 seats in the 56-seat legislature. The third- biggest faction, Diko, which supported him in his February election, holds eight seats. Cyprus’s communist Akel party, with 19 seats, plans to vote no.

    Afxentis Afxentiou, the governor of Central Bank of Cyprus from 1982 until 2002, told the state-run broadcaster CYBC that failure to enact the legislation “opens the road to chaos.”

    “Cyprus will turn into Libya,” Afxentiou said. “Even with the pain, we need to follow a normal course, with hope we’ll see better days.”

    Jeroen Dijsselbloem of the Netherlands, who leads the group of euro-area finance ministers, sought to highlight the rescue package’s “unique measures” that address the “exceptional nature” of Cyprus. Its banking system’s assets are about five times the size of the economy. Instead of targeting the country’s wealthiest depositors, which include Russian billionaires, the tax also stings ordinary savers.

    “As it is a contribution to the financial stability of Cyprus, it seems just to ask a contribution of all deposit holders,” Dijsselbloem told reporters.

    ‘Ominous’ Sign

    Barclays Plc (BARC) said in a report yesterday that the deposit levy is the latest erosion of bondholder protection at European banks and an “ominous” sign of how bailouts are being handled.

    The ECB’s pledge to buy bonds should prevail over market panic, though the tax on deposits brings the euro area into “uncharted territory again,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London, wrote in a note.

    “Given the fragile state of the banking systems, especially in Greece and Spain, anything that can impede the needed rebuilding of confidence in these banking systems can potentially cause financial and economic damage,” he said.

    Cyprus also agreed to step up asset sales, make further budget cuts and increase its corporate tax. Russia, whose banks have loaned as much as $40 billion to Cypriot companies of Russian origin, will ease terms on its existing loans to Cyprus as the rescue unfolds, according to the plan. Cyprus’s finance minister is scheduled to fly to Moscow on March 20.

    Public Opposition

    In Cyprus, where a poll showed 71 percent of Cypriots said parliament should reject the levy, the immediate effects were on display. Many cash machines ran out of money, including cooperative bank ATMs, Erotokritos Chlorakiotis, the general manager of the Cooperative Central Bank, told CYBC.

    A man in the coastal city of Limassol drove a bulldozer into a bank branch to protest the levy, CYBC reported. At a cooperative-bank branch in the capital Nicosia, a sign informed customers that it was shut on instructions from the Central Bank of Cyprus. Nicos Nicolaou, 57, said he hoped his deposits would not be affected.

    “All my life I never had deposits in banks because I didn’t trust them,” he said. “I only worked with co-ops.”

    Andreas Andreou, a 48-year-old public servant, said he felt betrayed by Anastasiades’s concession.

    “We voted for him to save us and instead he’s disappointed us,” Andreou said.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Patrick Donahue in Berlin at [email protected]

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    http://business.asiaone.com/A1Busine...15-408999.html

    Errant real estate agent fined $10,000, suspended 6 months

    AsiaOne
    Friday, Mar 15, 2013


    SINGAPORE - The Disciplinary Committee (DC') formed by the Council for Estate Agencies (CEA) has concluded the disciplinary proceedings against salesperson, Chua Cheng Thian, Benny on Feb 26.

    The DC convicted Chua of three charges for breaching the Code of Ethics and Professional Client Care in handling the property transaction for his clients. Chua was sentenced to suspension of six months and an aggregate financial penalty of $10,000. Fixed costs of $1,000 were awarded to CEA.

    Under CEA's disciplinary framework, salespersons who breach the Code of Ethics and Professional Client Care may face disciplinary action. The DC may, upon determination of the breach, revoke or suspend his registration and/or impose a financial penalty of up to $75,000 or reprimand the salesperson.

    Chua, 54, is a registered salesperson of ERA Realty Network Pte Ltd and has been practising as a salesperson for about 17 years.

    He was appointed by his clients as their salesperson to sell their property on an exclusive basis. It was agreed that a commission of 1 per cent of the selling price (exclusive of GST) would be payable by the clients on a successful sale, within the agreed period.

    Chua advertised and marketed the property, contrary to his clients' best interest, through his understudy salesperson on a 'Buyer only' (or no co-broke) basis. He also stated a wrong block number on the advertisement to sieve out unrepresented buyers from salespersons. Further, he did not disclose to his clients that he had a personal interest, by way of overrider, in having the property sold to his understudy's clients.

    The 3 charges filed against Chua, on which he was convicted:

    a. Failure to disclose potential conflicts of interest - The DC imposed a financial penalty of $4,000 and suspended him as a salesperson for a period of six months. Salespersons have a duty to avoid any potential conflicts of interests that may not be in the best interests of their clients. Chua was representing his client to sell their property and he has to act in their interest by considering all potential buyers and obtaining the best sale price for his client's property.

    However, he had a potential conflict of interest in representing the sellers as the salesperson but had an understudy salesperson who was representing the buyers. Chua was entitled to 6 per cent of the commission paid by the buyer if the property was sold to the buyer represented by his understudy salesperson. Chua therefore had a personal interest if the property was sold to the buyer represented by his understudy and had failed to declare this potential conflict of interest to his clients.

    b. Failure to act in the best interest of his clients - The DC imposed a financial penalty of $4,000 and suspended him as a salesperson for a period of six months. The intent of Chua's advertisements, with the words 'Buyer only' indicated, was to target and limit exposure to only buyers and such basis of advertisement and marketing was not in the sellers' interest as salespersons (who were representing potential buyers) were not entertained and thus the scope of exposure of the property in the market was limited.

    c. Placing inaccurate advertisement - The DC imposed a financial penalty of $2,000 and suspended him as a salesperson for a period of three months. All advertisements placed by salespersons must not cause or allow inaccurate, false or misleading offer, statement, representation, claim or information. Chua had indicated a wrong block number in the advertisement. Although the sellers highlighted to Chua that the wrong block number was indicated on the advertisement, the error was not rectified in a subsequent advertisement.

    In total, the financial penalty imposed on Chua in reference to the three charges is $10,000. The suspension orders for all 3 charges were ordered to run concurrently with effect from March 15. In addition, the DC has ordered Chua to pay CEA costs of $1,000.

    Consumers are advised to use CEA's Public Register at www.cea.gov.sg to check the registration details of the salesperson before engaging his or her services. Those interested can find more consumer information at CEA's Consumer Resource Centre at http://www.cea.gov.sg/cea/content/ consumer/consumerresources.html.

  22. #16732
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    http://www.tremeritus.com/2013/03/18...rom-teenagers/

    Dr Ng bombarded by bread & butter issues even from teenagers

    March 18th, 2013


    During a Singapore Conversation held yesterday (16 Mar) at a youth forum in Toa Payoh Library, even teenagers are worried about bread-and-butter issues.

    They posed many questions on mature issues such as job competitions, housing costs and maternity leave for Minister Ng Eng Hen to answer.

    When Dr Ng told the youth that their generation would all be able to afford a 4-room HDB flat, Louis Low, 17, stood up to rebut the Minister.

    Louis said he comes from a poorer family. His father, a cleaner at a hawker centre, only earns about $700 a month while his mother, a retail assistant, earns about $1,700.

    Louis who will be going to Singapore Poly this year, said, “What if I don’t do well in my studies and become like my father? I don’t dare to say that I can afford a 4-rm flat. It’ll be worse if I’m also trying to start a family.”

    Another student said, “I was watching the news and heard that housing prices are soaring. It’s quite scary.”

    Dr Ng then repeated what Mr Khaw told the Parliament in recent week that the Govt will be trying to lower the HDB BTO flat prices in non-mature estates to 4 times of the annual median income of flat applicants.

    Looking at a typical BTO launch last year [Link], the monthly median income of applicants for 4-room flats in Punggol is listed as $4,000 while a typical selling price for a 4-room unit is listed as $315,000. The price to annual median income ratio in this case works out to be 6.6. By World Bank standard of 5.0, this is considered not affordable.

    However, if the Govt indeed can lower the 4-room BTO flat price to a more affordable $192,000 (i.e, 4 times of annual median income of applicants), that would be most welcome by new home buyers. In this case we are talking about 64% drop from current typical price of $315,000 for a 4-room flat. That’s a lot of money for the Govt to “lose”, by the way.

    Back to the forum, the young participants also highlighted that employers prefer to hire foreign workers instead of locals these days to lower costs. Edric Wong, 14, said, “Most of the complaints are aimed at foreign expats competing for high-income jobs.”

    A reporter asked the Minister is he was surprised that even teenagers were talking about adult issues.

    Dr Ng laughed, “I guess Singaporeans are very serious, or maybe just this crowd is very serious, I don’t know.”

  23. #16733
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    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...260678/1/.html

    S'pore's NODX down 30.6% on-year in Feb 2013


    Channel News Asia
    Posted: 18 March 2013 0900 hrs


    SINGAPORE: Singapore's non-oil domestic exports declined by 30.6 per cent in February 2013 on-year, compared to the 0.4 per cent increase in the previous month.

    Trade agency International Enterprise Singapore, said this is due to a contraction in both electronic and non-electronic exports.

    Exports to all of the top 10 markets, except Taiwan, decreased in February.

    The top three contributors to the export contraction were the European Union, the US and Hong Kong.

    On a month-on-month basis, exports decreased by 2.4 per cent in February, following the previous month's 1.8 per cent decline.

    On a year-on-year basis, total trade contracted by 17.3 per cent in February 2013, compared to the 1.4 per cent rise in the previous month.



    -CNA/ac

  24. #16734
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    http://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/singa...06-in-february

    Singapore Business Review
    ECONOMY | Staff Reporter, Singapore
    Published: 18 Mar 2013

    Singapore's NODX dropped 30.6% in February


    Blame it on weak electronic segment.

    According to a release, on a y-o-y basis, NODX contracted by 30.6 per cent in February 2013, compared to the marginal growth of 0.4 per cent in the previous month. This is due to the due a contraction in both electronic and non-electronic NODX.

    On a 3-month moving average (3MMA) y-o-y basis, NODX declined by 16.3 per cent in February 2013, following the 6.5 per cent contraction in the previous month.

    On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted (m-o-m SA) basis, NODX decreased by 2.4 per cent in February 2013, following the previous month’s 1.8 per cent decline, due to a contraction in non-electronic NODX which outweighed an expansion in electronic NODX. On a SA basis, the level of NODX reached S$13.2 billion in February 2013, lower than the S$13.5 billion registered in the previous month.

    On a SA basis, non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods2 (NORI) grew by S$0.1 billion from S$5.4 billion in the previous month to reach S$5.5 billion in February 2013.

    Electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, electronic NODX decreased by 27.4 per cent in February 2013, after the 5.6 per cent decline in the previous month. The contraction in electronic domestic exports was largely due to parts of PCs (-43.2 per cent), ICs (-14.6 per cent) and disk media products (-36.8 per cent).

    Non-electronic products. On a y-o-y basis, non-electronic NODX decreased by 32.0 per cent in February 2013, compared to the 3.7 per cent increment in the previous month. The contraction in non-electronic NODX was led by structures of ships & boats (-99.4 per cent), pharmaceuticals (-56.5 per cent) and electrical machinery (-54.5 per cent).

  25. #16735
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    http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business...creasingly.htm

    Analysts increasingly worried Asia is lending itself to higher debt risks

    By Fiona Chan, The Straits Times/Asia News Network
    March 14, 2013, 12:17 am TWN


    SINGAPORE -- As the United States and Europe fret over their huge government debts, a different kind of debt worry is surfacing in Asia.

    Analysts are flagging the rise of lending levels in the region, such as bank loans and corporate bonds, as a growing concern.

    Stable growth, strong bank deposits and global low interest rates are fueling what is seen as a potentially risky appetite for lending among banks on the one hand, and for debt among individuals and companies on the other.

    Borrowings as a proportion of the overall economy in Asia apart from Japan have already shot past the peak that prefaced the Asian financial crisis, suggesting that debt levels have risen relative to the ability to service them.

    The risk of a country's growing dependence on such debt is that it becomes more vulnerable to economic and financial shocks. An economy with higher leverage is likely to see more business failures and loan defaults in a recession or if interest rates rise sharply, all else being equal.

    Bank loans as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) have reached an all-time high in Asia excluding Japan, surpassing the peak prior to the 1997 Asian financial crisis, said HSBC economist Frederic Neumann.

    That is troubling because a poorly supervised lending boom in Asia had contributed to the 1997 crisis, by making the region's banking sector more exposed to the subsequent plunges in asset and currency values.

    Including bonds — a rarity in the 1990s but having sold in record levels in recent years — the measure of debt would be even higher, Neumann added.

    This is worrying as the rise in credit is outpacing the growth in economic output, he said. “In short, more and more debt is needed to generate 1 percentage point of GDP growth.”

    To restore balance, Asia's economies need to keep stepping up productivity, Neumann said. In the meantime, as long as loose monetary conditions in the developed economies continue to spur global funding and keep borrowing costs low, the region's leverage is likely to grow even more this year, he added.

    Within Asia, Singapore is one of the countries seeing both higher levels of and faster growth in private sector lending.

    In terms of average debt to GDP, Singapore comes second after China among major emerging Asia economies, said Goldman Sachs analyst Jose Ursua a in a recent note.

    China's credit was 127 percent of GDP last year, on average, while Singapore's was 115 percent, he said. Malaysia and Thailand logged debt of about 110 percent of GDP on average last year.

    South Korea's ratio was 99 percent, India's was 51 percent and that of the Philippines and Indonesia was around 30 percent.

    In response to queries from The Straits Times, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said that as of the fourth quarter last year, Singapore's private sector domestic debt-to-GDP ratio was 118 percent.

    Not only are Singapore's absolute lending levels high, but they have been growing faster recently than most of its neighbors'.

    Among Asian countries, Singapore and Thailand have seen the steepest year-on-year rises in their bank credit to GDP ratios over the last two years, according to Johanna Chua, Asia-Pacific chief economist for Citi.

    In Singapore, concern over credit levels has mainly manifested in worries over property debt.

    DBS economist Irvin Seah notes that mortgage loans are at an all-time high, as a proportion of both the overall economy and of total deposits.

    “The property market is the new safe deposit box for Singaporeans,” he said. “This implies rising risk exposure of the banking system and of the entire economy to the property market.”

    According to the MAS' latest financial stability review, property-related exposure made up 46 percent of domestic loans extended to non-bank entities as of September last year.

    But this was down from the average of 48 percent since 2004, and the growth in such lending had moderated over the last year.

    On a household level, the trends are more worrying. Household assets grew by 7.8 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of last year, but household debt grew by a bigger 10.4 percent, driven largely by housing loans.

    This has led to Singapore's household debt to GDP ratio topping the eight Asian economies surveyed in the MAS' review as of September last year, including South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Hong Kong and China.

    Should interest rates rise, buyers who have over-extended themselves on mortgage loans would be hit, especially since the “vast majority” of home loans in Singapore are based on floating-rate packages, the MAS said.

    If mortgage rates go up by 4 percentage points, the mortgage-servicing ratio for the average household will increase by 13 percentage points, it added.

    Take a person with a mortgage rate of 2 percent, who is spending 30 percent of his income on loan repayments. If his mortgage rate shot up to 6 percent, he would then need to pay 43 percent of his income to cover the increased payments, this indicates.

    Worries over rising property-related indebtedness prompted the MAS to impose tighter home loan limits this year, including loan caps and higher cash down payments on second or subsequent mortgages, and curbs on mortgage-servicing ratios for HDB flat loans.

    Rumors have also surfaced that similar mortgage-servicing ratio limits are in the works for private home loans.

    The good news — so far — is that while analysts are sounding an early alarm on the rise in debt, they do not think it has reached a dangerous point.

    Chua noted that rapid credit growth and a higher-than-usual rise in debt to GDP “do not always lead to some form of systemic banking crisis.”

    But research shows that more often than not, credit booms are followed by an extended period of below-trend growth, she said.

    Standard and Poor's credit analyst Tan Kim Eng also noted that debt to GDP ratios may sometimes overstate financial risk.

    In financial hubs such as Hong Kong and Singapore, many companies invest abroad using domestic loans, but the value created by their investments is not included in domestic GDP. That tends to overstate the debt to GDP ratio in these economies.

    Total credit extended in the region to non-bank entities also remains lower than that in most parts of Europe, and Asian lenders have more diversified credit risk than their counterparts in Ireland and Spain, Tan added.

    Still, he warns that a marked slowdown in economic growth in the region could expose current weaknesses associated with the recent ramp-up in debt growth.

    If growth in China slows sharply before that in the developed economies pick up, Asia's economic activities will be adversely affected and loan defaults may start to rise, said Tan.

  26. #16736
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    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...cal-risks.html

    Moody’s Sees Defaults as PBOC Warns on Local Risks

    Bloomberg.com
    By Kyoungwha Kim & David Yong - Mar 18, 2013 12:56 PM GMT+0800


    Moody’s Investor Services said China’s local-government financing vehicles face greater risk of default, as regulators warn 20 percent of their loans are risky.

    A rally in LGFV bonds may reverse, particularly should delinquencies emerge, Christine Kuo, a Moody’s analyst, wrote in an e-mailed response to questions on March 8. The average yield may rise to 7 percent by June from 6 percent now, according to Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co., the first brokerage incorporated in China and ranked the nation’s most influential research provider by New Fortune magazine in 2010.

    “I see increased risk of LGFV defaults because the financial profiles of many remain weak and heavy refinancing is needed,” Hong Kong-based Kuo said. “Regulators have asked banks to control their LGFV exposures. Some of the projects could default unless other sources of funds are found.”

    People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in a March 13 press briefing that about one-fifth of loans to the financing arms of local governments are risky. Net debt issuance by these entities surged 179 percent in 2012 to 1.132 trillion yuan ($182 billion), accounting for 50 percent of corporate bond sales, according to Bank of America Corp. data.

    The China Banking Regulatory Commission warned lenders to exercise caution and limit their holdings of bonds sold by local governments’ financing arms, the 21st Century Business Herald said on March 13. Banks aren’t allowed to increase outstanding loans to LGFVs above the level as of Dec. 31, 2011, the report said. Phone calls made by Bloomberg News to the regulator’s press office went unanswered.

    Loan Curbs

    The yield on Jilin Construction Holding Co.’s 7.1 percent notes due March 2018 was 6.05 percent today, according to Shanghai Exchange, after touching a record low of 6.04 percent on March 15. The yield on Liaoyang City Assets Operation & Management Co.’s November 2019 bonds rose two basis points to 6.78 percent. Companies pay an average 2.6 percent for debt globally, according to a Bank of America index.

    The financing units of local governments owe between 9.1 trillion yuan and 14.5 trillion yuan, or 18 to 30 percent of China’s gross domestic product, according to a BNP Paribas SA report published in January. Tighter curbs on bank loans prompted the units to scramble for funds in 2012, driving a 50 percent jump in net corporate bond sales and a 404 percent surge in trust financing, according to Bank of America.

    Aggregate financing, which includes non-bank lending, climbed 914 billion yuan to a record 2.54 trillion yuan in January, official data show. China’s non-financial credit has increased by nearly 60 percent of GDP in the past five years, outstripping the rise in the U.S.’s in the five years preceding the onset of its banking crisis in 2008, BNP Paribas said.

    ‘Financial Risks’

    The central government “is concerned about financial risks and will take action to contain risks in 2013,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. “We believe policy will have to be tightened eventually, but the timing and pace of tightening remain uncertain. We continue to focus on the size of total social financing as the best indicator of potential policy change.”

    CEBM Group, a Shanghai-based investment research firm, estimated last month that about 4 trillion yuan to 5 trillion yuan of credit -- including 2 trillion of bank loans, 2 trillion of trust loans and 180 billion yuan of LGFV bonds -- is set to mature this year.

    The bond market has yet to show signs of concern. Most LGFV notes are rated AA and above, according to Bank of America, and the yield premium on one-year debt of that grade over AAA debt shrank by 71 basis points to 50 basis points in the year through March 15, Chinabond data show. A Feb. 22 gap of 45 basis points was the least since September 2010.

    Notes ‘Overpriced’

    “The outperformance last year is unlikely to be repeated in 2013,” said Yu Wenlong, an analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo.“LGFV notes are now overpriced. The tightening by regulators on shadow banking will mark a turning point for the market. Authorities face tough challenges as they need to meet local governments’ funding needs, while preventing defaults.”

    The biggest threats to China’s financial stability are shadow banking and loans to LGFVs, Bank of China Ltd. Chairman Xiao Gang wrote in a commentary in the China Daily on Feb. 19. China should pay special attention to such risks, the Economic Information Daily reported on Jan. 22, citing Huang Shuhe, vice chairman of State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.

    Hainan, Ningxia

    The provincial debt levels in some second and third-tier cities, particularly those in western China such as Hainan and Ningxia, have increased with their debt-to-GDP ratios already exceeding 40 percent in 2010, CEBM said in a Feb. 21 report. More than 30 percent of LGFVs have insufficient operating cash flow to cover debt payments, the report said, citing CBRC estimates.

    “This suggests that some local governments could potentially default,” CEBM analysts including Steve Chen wrote.“An actual default would reverberate throughout China’s commercial banking system and have a systemic impact on China’s financial system.”

    China is encountering “some natural frictions” as its capital markets develop, according to Wee-Ming Ting, head of Asian Fixed Income at Pictet Asset Management, which oversees $29 billion of emerging-market debt. Pictet’s holdings include securities from China, although not LGFV notes, he said.

    “Increasing debt in China is an issue to be addressed but it’s not going to cause a major problem,” said Ting, who is based in Singapore. “China is in a transition period as it shifts away from a reliance on bank loans to the bond market.”

    Default Swaps

    The cost of insuring China’s sovereign notes using five-year credit-default swaps fell five basis points this year to 62 in New York, according to data provider CMA, which is owned by McGraw-Hill Cos. The contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent if a government fails to adhere to debt agreements.

    The yuan weakened 0.03 percent to 6.2155 per dollar as of 12:53 p.m. in Shanghai today, according to China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The government’s 10-year bonds yielded 3.59 percent on March 15.

    CEBM Group estimated total social financing will rise 15 percent this year to 17.5 trillion yuan, providing ample liquidity to companies and local governments. Loans to Tianjin’s LGFVs are expected to post “stable” growth this year, after 30 billion yuan was extended last year, Lin Tiegang, head of the the PBOC’s Tianjin branch said this month.

    “The government will definitely continue to allow LGFV bond sales, but may restrict some high-risk or low-level local governments from selling bonds,” said Ethan Mou, a fixed-income strategist at Bank of America in Hong Kong. The yield spreads of LGFV bonds could widen in 2013, due to supply or a credit event associated with trusts, Mou said, adding that a “big sell-off”could be a good opportunity for buy-and-hold investors.

    To contact the reporters on this story: Kyoungwha Kim in Singapore at [email protected]David Yong in Singapore at [email protected];

  27. #16737
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    @seletar can you post us some more interesting news like juicy sex scandals or celebrity gossips coz most of your posts arent that interesting to read

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    @seletar can you post us some more interesting news like juicy sex scandals or celebrity gossips coz most of your posts arent that interesting to read
    You mean news like Urban Vista sold 50% on first weekend launch ?

    News like D'Nest moved hundreds of units in the first weekend ?

    News like Singapore is still the TOP investment choice amongst many many countries ?

    These news, we know can already, no need like some people know, they prefer to wait at the Jetty...

    DKSG

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    i wonder how what's the new sales number for march, i'll probably go with 1500 units.

  30. #16740
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    I think the last big hoorah by a developer would have to be la fiesta, Urban Vista is struggling to sell out. we won't be seeing performance like la fiesta for a long time.

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