Newbie
Which economists in the world have ever been right in their theory?
Everyone groping in the dark, some just happen to hit on the spot (by luck).............
Originally Posted by Leeds
Originally Posted by chestnut
Don't believe theories. Practical is more important. U should look at what's around u. U will be enlightened. Serious. All the theories are bull shit. They hope for an ideal situation.
That's why it is so diff for u to name 3 or even 1.
Newbie
Actually Singapore's CMs resulted in the rich buying OCR and pushing up the OCR prices beyond the reach of the general middle-incomes living in OCR. So much so for the CMs "redistributing wealth" theory!
Newbie
You forgot he is Indonesian? May be he and his friends and acquaintences or he know many people bringing or going to bring in xx BILLIONS $$$ into Singapore? With so much money pouring into Singapore you think Singapore's asset will not appreciate in value?
Originally Posted by indomie
The idea that there is imperfect market and the gov is constantly tweaking it so it runs at near perfect is bizzare. The way sg gov operate is to pick winners and throw losers out. This idea is also dangerous in a sense that it gives people false hope that the market will be corrected to their way if they left behind economically. U better learn to swim now, than waiting for the ship that never arrive.
Junior
Isn't that a brilliant plan, buying restrictions resulting in the increase for OCR PC price and widening the price gap for the neighbouring HDB. Resulting in escalating HDB price itself. I can never thought of that in a million years.Actually Singapore's CMs resulted in the rich buying OCR and pushing up the OCR prices beyond the reach of the general middle-incomes living in OCR. So much so for the CMs "redistributing wealth" theory!
Junior
but Shanghai index is still very bearishlai liao lai liao, Chinese property market is heating up again
11月楼市供销两旺 低调复苏迎“暖冬”
and price of Chinese herbs up big time
Leeds
Just to add on to your point. The only theory in economics is the Perfect Market and Perfect Competition which we know do not exist. The studies of economics is built upon this one and only theory. All other theories if you may want to call them are simply obsersations put together to describe past and future events or possible occurrences.Which economists in the world have ever been right in their theory?
Everyone groping in the dark, some just happen to hit on the spot (by luck).............
Economists can only try to predict future events base on a set of variables and not any theory per se. With this in mind, we now know that even with the same set of variables, the outcome can be different because there are other non-economics factors such as vested interest of government, cultural differences and others which will affect the out come of any changes in governments' monentary and fiscal policies.
Like Physicians, economists attempts to develop cause and effect to predict the future. That is the reason why fiscal and monentary policies are constantly 'tweeked' and reviewed to fine tune for the desired outcomes.
Junior
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-c...s-weak-2012-11
Music of the night
Yes, today China-A closed at 1959.77, 46 months low, already hitting my 1st target
but property stocks buck the trend, big cities like Shanghai / Beijing property price / volume going up ...
looks like rich Chinese still betting on hard assets ...
Ride at your own risk !!!
Junior
In other words:
Increase revenue from absd..... Kaching $
Increase land price for gls...... Double kaching $
Music of the night
M3 uptrend slows down, reflecting low GDP growth this year
2011
Oct 447,573.8
2012
Oct P 473,655.3
yoy growth of 5.8%
Ride at your own risk !!!
Leeds
Not doing anything to the market given the present environment will result in a property bubble waiting to burst. The government does not want to crash the market, so getting the right balance is key.
Whether the elected government is giving false hope to its people is debatable. I do not think it is in the interest of the elected government to give false hope to its people. There is no political incentive for doing so.
Junior
I see the cloud, I see the storm coming.. Get yourself a place in this noah ark called singapore. The other alternative is to learn to live with the savages.
Leeds
Your fear is understandable.
Junior
at the rate that it is going, look like 1800 could be seen
Newbie
Junior
Most businesses are not easy to run, so why should developers be any special ?
There are many businesses much worse off than developers right now from the slowdown such as the manufacturers. Singapore is an exported oriented economy, and many manufacturers and export-related companies are suffering from shrinking demand and stiffer global competition. Are the shareholders and employees of these companies less important than the developer's ?
No one is forcing developers to do business in Singapore, it is their choice. But doing business here, they have to comply with Govt's rules. Land bidding is a competitive exercise with many developers in the market competing. If the developer is not competitive and cannot get land or sell units, there is no one to blame but themselves. But when REDAS started lobbying Govt for special assistance, then what about all the other industries that are worse off ? Don't they deserve special assistance more than the developers ? Hope the developers don't get special treatment from the Govt.
Junior
http://sbr.com.sg/residential-proper...ust-know-heart
Singapore Business Review
RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY | Staff Reporter, Singapore
Published: 03 Dec 2012
3 golden property rules Singaporeans must know by heart
Just to make sure mortgage is paid.
According to PropertyGuru, mortgage rates in Singapore are largely determined by the existing Swap Offer Rate (SOR) and Singapore Interbank Offer Rate (SIBOR). Of these two rates, the SOR is influenced by the situation in the US.
Here's more from PropertyGuru:
Fortunately with the Federal Reserve committing to a low interest rate of 0.25%, LoanGuru expects the city-state’s interest rates to remain low until 2014 at the very least.
On top of that, the Singapore government is monitoring the situation, as indicated by the latest cooling measures introduced in view of the hot property market. However, LoanGuru believes not all buyers are prudent with their home purchases.
According to transaction data for Q3 2012, the majority of deals during the period involved completed properties and the bulk of purchases were from the condo segment.
Hence, LoanGuru has come to the conclusion that buyers preferred completed private condominiums during the quarter. Moreover, based on LoanGuru’s mortgage data for Q3, we see a healthy distribution of the consumer profile across private condominium, landed, EC and HDB segments.
One of the methods used by banks to measure the ratio of total liabilities over income is the Debt Servicing Ratio (DSR). For example, if a new property purchase results in a monthly instalment of S$2,703 and the combined income of the borrower is S$7,950 per month, the resulting DSR is 34%, meaning the DSR is manageable and the borrower will not have a hard time servicing the loan.
A DSR below 30% is considered healthy, whereas a 30 to 40% DSR is still manageable. On the other hand, a DSR of 40 to 50% denotes that a borrower may have a hard time paying off the loan.
Additionally, a DSR above 50% is considered very risky as more than half the monthly household income is consumed by mortgage instalments. Aside from that, if the interest rate rises by two-fold from its current level, borrowers will be facing the same situation three years back. At that time, the DSR for all segments was healthy except for condo and HDB flat owners. If this happens, borrowers from those two segments will need to examine their finances.
Should mortgage interest rates increase by four-fold, the DSR of borrowers from all segments will exceed 50%, except for landed property owners. This situation happened back in 2003, whereby interest rates of loans ranged from 3.25 to 4.75%.
Notably, borrowers were heavily burdened by their monthly instalments during that time. If we look back at the 1995-1997 period just before the property bubble burst, we would notice that the interest rates at the time were eight times the present level at 8 to 9%. As such, the DSR for all segments easily breached the 50% mark. Notably, the DSR for HDB owners was at 101%.
These scenarios happened in the past and are factual. The prevailing low interest rate environment in Singapore will not last forever. So take action now and be prepared. If you want to buy a completed condominium or HDB flat, you will need to plan your home loan solution right now.
This also applies to buyers of uncompleted condo units, but their loan packages are more complicated due to the normal progressive payment scheme.
While buyer mindsets have changed over the years, the golden rules for property purchases remain constant. First, borrowers should always set aside more than enough (24 times) for their monthly instalments either in cash or CPF contribution. If an economy downturn happens, this ensures that they will have an emergency fund to pay off their mortgage.
The second important rule is to always buy a property within your means. If you over commit now, you will be overburdened with your mortgage instalments if an economic crisis happens, and this will diminish the amount of money available for your family’s other needs.
Lastly, always choose a mortgage package that meets your needs. If you are a risk taker, you can consider a SOR or SIBOR package to take advantage of the low interest rate environment at present.
If you are a risk-averse person, you may consider a fixed-rate loan. However, fixed-rate loans are not suitable for all property segments.
Junior
Bro, u must take your hats off to the developers rite... They damn united and lobby... Steady wat... I not in this line...
Govt not interested in certain "manufacturing" already... So most go Vietnam, Thailand, china, etc... That's why semi con biz is dead... All the semi con coy are now in china....
The govt interest in pharmaceutical - one north...
Cheers
Junior
So ok seletar you at least agree pty development is just another normal business. So lobbying, is , of course, part and parcel of the business. Just like any other business. Every business wants th gov to favor them. Nothing despicable about that. There is no need to feel so enraged about their business tactics. Every one is under a difficult business environment, to run the show with gov is an art. What basic economy theory ? That's for students doing their subject paper. Real ife business is far far complex than that. If you cannot see through the wayang of various parties, you are not expected to survive.
I agree with Wong on his argument. If I were Wong I would do the same. This does not mean I sympathize with them. Tis is just part of the way to bargain with the gov.
Amber
I am impressed with your strong foundation in economics. Mind to share which graduate school you came from (just kidding)?
Maybe because economics is such a complex and difficult subject (difficult to understand), many people could not relate it to the environment we live in.
I noted that this forum is nominated mostly by the Bulls. Maybe the Bears here do not wish to get into trouble with the Bulls so remain relatively quiet. It is nice therefore, to find postings (once a while) offering more balance views or bearish views.
I also want to mention this individual by the name of Shanhz. He is vested and is bearish on property now. Not many people will speak against his own vested interest. My respect to Shanhz.
I hope contributors like Leeds, Seleter, Shanhz and some others (sorry I cannot remember your names) will continue to contribute to this forum for a more balance view. Imagine this forum without you guys; it will be just one-way street or simply BORING.
Junior
bro, thanks for the compliments.
dun quite agree here mostly bulls. i find it quite balance, perhaps 60/40 in favour of the bulls. like you, i find that Leeds is fundamentally very sound. respect to him too. other seasoned investors like chestnut, DC are also good sources of reference.
for me, i not theory person, but gut feel is when the showflats are still crowded (esp at this part of the cycle), wkend newspapers earn 50% of their revenue from ppty devpers, etc.. something is just not right.
however we are facing too many variables that are not in the economic textbooks, so it is hard to say for sure whether there is more juice in the bull.
for myself, i came across a unit that is really suitable for me in all aspects. ppty is a long term game, so balancing both sides of the coin, sometimes the heart does rule over the mind. just like chestnut is still keeping his first house despite the lousy rental. in fact, i went thru' alot of internal struggle when deciding to go in. furthermore, you gotta keep your missus happy, right?
Junior
The only different between a property bull and bear is just a time frame. Bull is more long term, bear is more short term. Bull don't mind price fluctuation, bear look at fluctuation as risk/opportunity. At the end of the day we all here to own as many properties as we can, given a limited resources and time.
Junior
well said.
Old Newbie
I believe a bull can have a short investment time frame but they will be deemed as speculators which the CMs have effectively wiped out.
树大必有枯枝，人多必有白痴。
树无皮必死无疑，人不要脸天下无敌！
Amber
I came across an elderly gentleman who bought into a new development recently and telling me that if not for his wife, he would have waited.bro, thanks for the compliments.
for myself, i came across a unit that is really suitable for me in all aspects. ppty is a long term game, so balancing both sides of the coin, sometimes the heart does rule over the mind. just like chestnut is still keeping his first house despite the lousy rental. in fact, i went thru' alot of internal struggle when deciding to go in. furthermore, you gotta keep your missus happy, right?
Hearing from you, I have this feeling that most guys seem to take their missus as an 'excuse' to buy into something they so desire and not wanting to admit it. I must agree that keeping your missus happy is important.
Junior
well, she was the one who reminded me that in the long run, ppty will go up. why worry about the short term? again, the bull vs bear (and timing) issue.
for me, the unit has attributes that i had been searching for in the past 1-2 years. i could go on searching.. or bite the bullet.
women go by feeling. men go by analysis. sometimes analyse until paralyse, no pain no gain. sometimes, have to trust the right brain. in 2009-2010, i was looking at one unit, but had cold feet. she asked me to enter the mkt although i was hesitant. at that time, everyone shouting TOO HIGH, TOO HIGH. juz go and check the 2009/2010 posts here. thankfully i did.
so this time, she say can buy. what can i say?
so i contribute the left brain, she contribute the right brain.. as long as finances can handle, the rest... trust the women.
Old Newbie
Tell me about it. Same thing with my latest property purchase. She say just buy, never calculate DP, installment, tenor of loan etc.so this time, she say can buy. what can i say?
so i contribute the left brain, she contribute the right brain.. as long as finances can handle, the rest... trust the women.
I just made sure we had the ammunition, she was the one who lit the fuse!
then again she was also the one who said we shld sell our flat for a condo back in 2006 so I'm not going to argue with her track record!
树大必有枯枝，人多必有白痴。
树无皮必死无疑，人不要脸天下无敌！
Newbie
My deceased parents-in-law believed in holding cash and they were cash rich, living it up and enjoying life. Husband was of course influenced by them.
Fortunately when I was young, my relatives would relate stories of money turning to "banana notes." How people were throwing all those worthless monies around when the Japanese surrendered.
This story left a deep impression on me. I used the same "banana notes" story to convince my husband, over many years, that holding too much cash is bad.
It wasn't easy but fortunately husband wasn't stubborn.
My father-in-law didn't quite like me when he was alive. I knew he often scolded my husband something like this, "your wife will lose all your money for you one day."
I think my father-in-law is the only one in Spore that didn't make money from property. He sold his landed to buy a condo and had to top-up cash to do that.
Excuse me for talking about the dead.
Leeds
bro, thanks for the compliments.
dun quite agree here mostly bulls. i find it quite balance, perhaps 60/40 in favour of the bulls. like you, i find that Leeds is fundamentally very sound. respect to him too. other seasoned investors like chestnut, DC are also good sources of reference.
Thank you Amber Woods and Shanhz for your kind words.
For sure I sounded like a bear but in reality I am neither. My views merely reflect my understanding of the underlying fundamentals. In this respect, I am bearish on property. Perhaps, I have never shared my 'investment portfolio' or experiences so my writings always appear bearish.
Like many others, if property prices will to crash, it will not affect my investment properties which are fully paid. You may say I could buy more if prices fall. Well! yes and maybe! If prices continue to shoot up, I also do not gain unless I sell and unlock profit.
I believe in maintaining a diversified portfolio.
Cheers!
Last edited by Leeds; 04-12-12 at 15:23.
Junior
incidentally i have many friends in the industries where they are very good at calculation - banking (risk management), accounting, etc. they all cash alot, but dun dare to buy ppty. even if they buy, their leverage is like 20-30%.
my other frens who are mainly in marketing - they have all made a few killings over the last 10 years and own 2-3 pptys minimum.
that's why i say, analyse until paralyse. perhaps, ignorance is bliss.
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