Property price is coming down fast

[smarian]

The $3,200,000,000,000 Question – Why Housing Has Much More To Drop Before It Bottoms
September 1st, 2012





The Biggest Reason Why California is Bankrupt
September 1st, 2012









with all the huge debt & mortgage loan to be resolved & have tons more.....it will have much more to drop....same to spore when burst.....
US property already down for 5 yrs, down 60%......more to go.....
once market start to squeeze....it will squeeze till no more juice left....all weak holders & kena retrenched lose everything & in deep debt, then market sees bottom.....
when spore property bubble burst....it will be the same....same to stock....only when last force sell & margin call to sell at bottom, then market rebound....

1 by 1 state bankrupt...county & city too...then 1 by 1 country bankrupt.....not avoidable.....
time to pay back all debt......

The $3,200,000,000,000 Question – Why Housing Has Much More To Drop Before It Bottoms

[basically]

dup

stupid moron...so if I don't post means I am very confident??......

the best index in this thread is the more personal you are...the more depsrate you are.....

only moronic rubbish rely on personal & only rubbish being personal...real useless rubbish fool.........

[phantom_opera]

stupid moron...so if I don't post means I am very confident??......

the best index in this thread is the more personal you are...the more depsrate you are.....

only moronic rubbish rely on personal & only rubbish being personal...real useless rubbish fool.........

desperado +1

[Rysk]

the best index in this thread is the bigger the font... the more desperate you are....

[phantom_opera]

the best index in this thread is the bigger the font... the more desperate you are....

LikeX100

[basically]

desperado +1

this stupid morom post more than me in this thread...desperdo x1000....

stupid panic fool.....useless rubbish.....

[basically]

温家宝：已建成保障房要尽快入市巩固调控
2012年09月02日





存货创5年新高 房地产库存压力依然巨大
2012年09月01日








so wen Jiabao is pushing for 36 million public houses to complete asap & dump into market to push down property price further for soft landing....he knows time is running out now....before market will crash down hard by external force & factors.....
after down 30-40% in last 1 yr.....recently still implementing some new cooling measures to crash property down further to affordable level....
with these 36 millions units dump into market at low price....price will crash down 60-70% from peak....will let market stabilised 1-2 yrs before removing CM....

unsold units at 5 yrs high now....no buyers, can't sell...banks & govt are pushing developers to dump fast to pay back loans before all turn bad debt & sour....
also all unsold units will start to charge property tax for more govt revenue & push developers to bankrupt further.....

time to burst global bubble before economy collapse to crash property free fall........final stage of global plunging is on the way.......

[basically]

Bagus' Bernanke Rebuttal - Redux
09/02/2012



Money printing cannot make society richer; it does not produce more real goods. It has a redistributive effect in favor of those who receive the new money first and to the detriment of those who receive it last. The money injection in a specific part of the economy distorts production. Thus, QE does not bring ease to the economy. To the contrary, QE makes the recession longer and harsher.









nice one & simple.....printing don't produce a single good & service.....all bubble will burst & left only debt, that is why it will make recession much longer & harsher.....
same to spore economy & property market...wait for it to burst...result will be scary....
print money eventually su.ck all money from the 95% to 5% pocket & left the 95% in deep debt to pay for next 20-30 yrs....yet printed $$ will evaporate & back to thin air.....
next 1-3 yrs will see all these.....bernanke & FED will be gone, people power will F them off, all these human rubbish....rate will shoot....

all the fake, lies, fraud & magic are fake....will not sustain....on the way to explode now.....
global economy will collapse from Europe to US to Asia to spore........no one will spare.....

[PN]

this stupid morom post more than me in this thread...desperdo x1000....

stupid panic fool.....useless rubbish.....

That's the biggist lie from the most panicky shameless moron fool

Basic & Basically combined 4800 posts in this thread.
Phantom only posted 700+

Check this out guys
http://forums.condosingapore.com/mis...posted&t=12285

[phantom_opera]

That's the biggist lie from the most panicky shameless moron fool

Basic & Basically combined 4800 posts in this thread.
Phantom only posted 700+

Check this out guys
http://forums.condosingapore.com/mis...posted&t=12285

I think I have wasted too much time with him ...

[basically]

Dem Gov.: We’re Not Better Off Now
September 2nd, 2012





NEW YORKER: Bill Clinton on Obama: ‘A Few Years Ago, This Guy Would Have Been Carrying Our Bags’
September 2nd, 2012





BOOK: SEALS DIDN’T WANT TO HELP RE-ELECT OBAMA
September 2nd, 2012










even democratic wants to discard obama now...this rubbish & worst US president in history.....
democratic govt said economy & situation today is much worse than 4 yrs ago....all the QE & printing are rubbish & failed....
bill clinton said obama only fit to carry bags for politicians....he can only maid to serve others.....rubbish....
oprah & many stop supporting this rubbish.....

easy way out forever....don't want to work hard.....debt is US$5-6 trillion more today, unemployment is much higher, unofficial is 16-23% today....property price plunge real hard....foreclosure >10 million property....60 millions in food stamp...100 million adult not working....& create all the fake world, manipulate all data....real rubbish.....the world is just waiting to collapse & crash anytime after 4 yrs with obama...

vote obama out.....obama will lose..........

[basically]

Economic Failure: Jobs Being Created Are Low Paying Jobs
September 2nd, 2012






Majority of New Jobs Pay Low Wages, Study Finds
September 1st, 2012










said many time global pay cut, job cut are the main trend now...take it or leave it.....
those not competitive, non productive....all gone & down....& job lost will never come back anymore.....
no business, no order......cash flow will get tighter each day...bottomeline will gone & bankrupt....so tons of unemployed, why need to pay more??....
new jobs, fresh graduate all have to accept lower pay or no jobs......
not only low pay & no jobs, tax will hike globally to pay back debt.....
jobs will flow from high pay to low pay country as bottomline is fight for survive now....now to expand or growth.....
globally is the same....the last one to cut, down & bankrupt 1st.......

[seletar]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...223007/1/.html

Channel News Asia
Business News

German unemployment rises in August


Posted: 30 August 2012 1719 hrs


FRANKFURT: Unemployment in Germany rose in August as slowing growth due to the eurozone debt crisis begins to make itself felt on the labour market, official data showed on Thursday.

In raw or unadjusted terms, headline unemployment rose, with the total number of people out of work up by 29,100 in August from July to stand at 2.91 million, the Federal Labour Agency said.

The unadjusted jobless rate stood at 6.8 percent in August, unchanged from July.

Unemployment tends to rise in the summer as school-leavers sign on the dole and companies close for the holidays but even adjusted for such seasonal factors, unemployment is on the rise in Europe's top economy, the data showed.

The seasonally adjusted jobless total rose by 9,000 in August from July.

But here, too, the adjusted jobless rate, which measures the proportion of people registered as unemployed against the working population as a whole, was unchanged at 6.8 percent.

"The German economy did not grow much in the second quarter. The slower growth is making itself felt on the labour market," the labour agency said in a statement.

- AFP/al

[seletar]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...223243/1/.html

Channel News Asia
Business News


Eurozone jobless numbers hit record 18m


Posted: 31 August 2012 1848 hrs


BRUSSELS: Jobless numbers across the eurozone hit a record 18 million in July, the grim new high announced as recession takes grip across the debt-stricken 17-nation currency area.

The 18,002,000 headline jobless figure released by Eurostat was the highest since records began in 1995, the European Union data agency confirmed.

An additional 88,000 people joined the ranks of the unemployed throughout July, although upwardly-revised June data meant that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 11.3 percent, it said.

With an estimated 25.254 million unemployed across the full European Union, which also includes non-euro heavyweights Britain and Poland, and annualised inflation also rising to 2.6 percent in August, according to a separate Eurostat release, the figures had analysts warning of ever-tighter household spending acting as a further drag on governments' hopes of recovery.

The stark jump in dole queues added to fuel-price rises at the root of the renewed climb for inflation "supports the view that the downturn in household spending will intensify in the second half of this year," said London-based Capital Economics' Ben May.

The news emerged as the International Labour Organisation warned of a "catastrophic" rise in unemployment, especially among the young, if debt-wracked Greece were to leave the eurozone or if the bloc were to split.

"It would be a catastrophe for the European youth," Ekkehard Ernst, a senior economist at the UN body, told a German daily, warning that close to one in 10 would be without a job even in powerhouse Germany by 2014.

At 5.5 percent, the unemployment rate was much lower in Europe's leading economy, likewise neighbouring Austria and the Netherlands, but more than one in four are still out of work in Spain.

According to Christian Schulz of Berenberg bank, German jobs growth over recent months was already "past its peak".

Annual unemployment increases in Spain and Greece were easily the highest, and both countries, labouring under sovereign and banking debt crises, logged jobless rates among the key under-25s age-group of more than 50 percent.

In a note released ahead of the data's publication, analyst Patrick Arbus of France's Natixis warned that rising unemployment coupled with austerity was leading directly to "destruction of growth potential".

The EU announced earlier in August that eurozone growth slipped back into reverse over the second quarter of 2012, with a 0.2-percent contraction.

Subsequent commercial surveys of private business activity also showed a seventh monthly decline in a row in August marked by the rate of contraction gathering pace in Germany.

According to research firm Markit, the eurozone is facing a 0.5-0.6 percent drop in gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter, which would meet the widely accepted definition of recession, two successive quarters of economic contraction.

- AFP/al

[seletar]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48881480

China's Steel Traders Expose Banks' Bad Debts

Published: Sunday, 2 Sep 2012 | 8:01 PM ET
By: Reuters


China's banks are coming after the country's steel traders, hauling executives into court to chase down loans that some traders said they didn't initially need and can't now repay.

The heavy push to recover the loans is another sign of strain on China's financial system at a time when the country's leaders are contemplating another round of stimulus to boost the economy, and when banks are worried about bad debts piling up.

The battle between the banks and steel traders also exposes flaws in the 4 trillion ($629 billion) stimulus round in 2008, and offers a warning to those calling for pumping more money into the system. At that time, Chinese banks threw money at the steel trade - a crucial cog in supplying the country's massive construction and infrastructure growth.

But those steel loans, after offering a quick fix, became excessive, poorly managed, or a combination of the two. Government officials insisted more money was needed to prop up the industry. Steel executives said the money flow was too heavy, and they had to put the money to work in real estate and the stock market.

"After the financial crisis, when the government released its stimulus, banks begged us to borrow money we didn't need," Li Huanhan, the owner of Shanghai Shunze Steel Trading, told a judge at a recent hearing. "We had nothing to do with the money, so we turned to other investments, like real estate."


Plush Apartments

While some loans did go towards equipment and expansion, executives admit money was also used for pet property projects, plush apartments and stock market bets.

By the end of last year, China's steel industry had a total debt burden of $400 billion - around the size of South Africa's economy. Some of China's leading mills alone owe 200-300 billion yuan ($32-$47 billion), according to the China Iron and Steel Association.

The aggressive tack by China's lenders, many of which are state-controlled, comes as pressure builds inside a stretched financial system. Results at China's big banks show profit growth is at its weakest since the global financial crisis, while bad loans rose for a third straight quarter to 456.5 billion yuan ($71.8 billion) by June, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said this
month.

Steel traders are unlikely to be helping the bad loan issue, with Shanghai steel futures having almost halved from their 2009 highs to below 3,400 yuan ($540) a tonne.

As the steel market turned - a victim of crippling over-capacity, heavy debt and sliding prices - alarm bells sounded among banks and regulators about the risk of lending to the industry. In June, after months of cajoling, banks were ordered to clamp down on new lending to steel traders.

Steel industry executives complain the banks went overboard.

"Banks should consider the greater good and not just focus on protecting their own interests," said Xiao Zhicheng, head of the Zhouning Chamber of Commerce that overlooks Shanghai's steel trading industry's interests. "Instead of pumping in more blood to save the patient, it's choosing to draw more blood."


Taken to Court

In one Shanghai courtroom, steel trading firm boss Li tries to fend off a fed-up lender. China Minsheng Bank [1988.HK 6.30 -0.02 (-0.32%) ], the country's eighth-biggest lender, is trying to recover 3 million yuan ($472,100) of loans it made to the trading firm.

When the bank recalled the loan in June, Li tried to sell two Shanghai apartments she had used as collateral. In a flat property market, she came up empty-handed.

Her plea for more time to repay is one of more than 20 court cases Chinese banks have taken against steel traders. The targets tend to be mainly smaller trading firms with fewer than 50 employees, as the larger state-backed steel firms have more cash reserves.

These traders are mainly based in and around Shanghai, a tight-knit community drawn from Zhouning in the southern province of Fujian. At its peak in 2009, some 12,000 steel trading companies were scattered across the city, accounting for close to 3 percent of Shanghai's GDP, according to the local business chamber.

By some estimates, the number of steel traders has fallen by half, as steel prices crumpled in the third quarter of 2011.

"The court cases you see are usually when things get desperate," said a loans official at a Shanghai branch of Bank of Communications [3328.HK 5.05 -0.02 (-0.39%) ], who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the subject. "We've had people go missing. Some have fled overseas, while others just take on a new identity and move somewhere else."

The owner of one of China's biggest steel trading firms, Yizhou Group, skipped the country with his wife and children after piling up about 1 billion yuan ($157 million) in loans to banks including Bank of Communications, the official said.

Calls to Yizhou were not answered.

In the Shanghai courtroom, lawyers for Minsheng Bank told Li after the hearing that banks were desperate to recall loans as they had heard of some borrowers going missing with tens of millions of yuan still owed.

"One trader fled to Australia after borrowing 23 million yuan, while others used their property as collateral to several banks at the same time " Li said, recounting what she'd heard from a lawyer. "So banks are very cautious and taking immediate action against borrowers if they don't repay."

Another steel trader said banks promised fresh loans once existing loans had been repaid, but then withdrew credit lines.

"Some banks lied to us that they will give out new loans immediately after we repay the old ones, but they never really did. They just shut down the credit lines after they got the money back," said a Fujian trader surnamed Xiao from a small Shanghai trading firm with just eight employees.

Some traders resorted to finding private lending at a much higher cost so they could pay back bank loans, in the hope of getting new loans from the banks - leaving them mired in expensive debt when the banks pulled the plug.

"The banks have taken a tougher stance this year and not only required company assets to be used as collateral but also required the borrowers to use their own property as collateral," said Xiao.


High Risk, High Rates

For the banks, lending to steel traders was highly profitable while it lasted.

China Minsheng charged interest rates of up to 24 percent a year to small- and medium-sized trading firms, according to some in the industry - four times the government-set lending rate.

Bankers say the higher rates they charge are a direct response to the higher risk profile the steel traders carry, and not a single Minsheng loan to steel traders can be called a non-performing loan under China's four-tier classification system, said Shi Jie, assistant to Minsheng Bank's president.

"The steel trading sector is a particularly high-risk sector," Shi said. "We've been very carefully controlling our risks there, and working with borrowers to come to a reasonable agreement if there are problems."

In China, a loan is only classified as non-performing if it is overdue for more than 90 days and the borrower has missed interest payments. Otherwise, troubled loans can be classified under a different category known as "special mention" loans, or they can be called "overdue".

Domestic steel prices rose by 25 percent in April-September 2009 before prices slumped. While the industry rode the price spike, bank loans offered a route to investing outside the industry.

The most common loan method was through a letter of credit, where banks paid for a trader's purchase and then gave the trader 3-12 months to repay. That allowed traders a window where they could sell the goods and use the proceeds to invest.

Executives say they couldn't refuse the money coming in, and the cash did sometimes go into real estate or even 'shadow banking', where they would take the loan and lend it to another party at a higher rate.


Flight, Suicides

Bank of China [601988.SS 2.76 -0.02 (-0.72%) ] said loans to industries at risk of overcapacity, such as steel and shipbuilding, made up less than 4 percent of its total loans and had a bad debt ratio lower than its overall loan book.

"We're looking to cut our exposure to industries at risk of overcapacity," the bank's president Li Lihui said. "Internally, we are raising our own risk control measures and working with clients to cut our risk exposure."

Shanghai Gangmin Metals, which borrowed from banks including China Construction Bank [0939.HK 5.10 --- UNCH (0) ], said most of the money was used to pay for steel supplies, though it did have other investments.

"Money obviously needs to be put to work ... you can't let it sit in a bank account," said the company's general manager Su Cheng. "Ultimately, we think we'll be able to reach a reasonable agreement with the banks. We just need more time."

Many of Su's peers aren't so confident.

Reports of steel traders fleeing China are becoming more widespread, as are local media articles of indebted executives committing suicide.

Ratings agency Fitch said last week that China's steel sector continued to suffer from oversupply and weak prices could persist through the first quarter of 2013. China's biggest steelmaker Baoshan Iron and Steel [600019.SS 4.38 0.02 (+0.46%) ] has predicted a "most difficult" third-quarter.

"There's good reason for the banks' lack of confidence in steel traders," said Arthur Kwong, head of Asia Pacific Equities at BNP Paribas Investment Partners in Hong Kong, which has total assets under management of $640 billion globally. "When you have an industry where people run away after falling behind on their loans, that doesn't inspire a lot of people."

[seletar]

http://www.todayonline.com/Business/...conomy-falters


S Korea's exports fall again, as economy falters

Exports decline for sixth month this year, imports worst in 3 years

TODAYonline
Updated 04:02 PM Sep 01, 2012


SEOUL - South Korea said on Saturday exports in August set their sixth month of annual decline this year, the first evidence from an industrial powerhouse showing a sustained slump in global demand through the second month of the quarter.

Exports by Asia's fourth-largest economy fell 6.2 percent in August from a year earlier to US$42.97 billion while imports plunged 9.8 percent to $40.93 billion, generating a surplus of US$2.04 billion, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy's data showed.

It was slightly better than a revised 8.8 percent drop in July and in line with a median 6.3 percent decline forecast in a Reuters survey of analysts, but fell far short of providing any sign of the global slump approaching its end.

Demand shrank from almost across the world, with sales to the top market China falling 5.6 percent for the first 20 days of August over a year earlier and those to the European Union down 9.3 percent, ministry data showed.

"Apart from the overall numbers, what's really annoying is that the economic slowdown has now spread wider to almost all areas including many emerging-market countries," said Park Sang-hyun, economist at HI Investment & Securities.

"Some talk about a rebound in exports in the near future but I would say the weakness will continue beyond this year."

In South Korea, the latest figures brought overseas sales for the July-August period down 7.5 percent from a year before, casting doubts on a recent government projection for a modest annual gain in exports for the second half.

August imports now fell for the sixth consecutive month over a year earlier and set the sharpest annual decline in nearly three years, underscoring a sustained weakness in demand within the country for consumption and investment.

For the first 20 days of August, imports of capital goods such as machinery fell 18.2 percent over a year earlier and those of consumer goods dipped 11.6 percent, ministry data showed, underscoring a sustained slump in domestic demand.

The data bodes ill for the economic growth for the current quarter, during which the central bank had forecast gross domestic product would expand by more than 1 percent quarter-on-quarter after a weak 0.4 percent rise in the April-June period.

The Bank of Korea, alarmed by the economic slump continuing for a longer period than expected, cut interest rates in July for the first time since the 2008-2009 global crisis and looks set for another cut as early as this month.

In China, government data showed on Saturday the official factory purchasing managers' index fell to 49.2 in August, the lowest since November 2011 and a level that indicates the sector's activity shrank.

China is South Korea's largest export market, taking about one-quarter of total shipments, followed by the European Union and the United States accounting for about 10 percent each.

South Korea, also the world's seventh-largest exporter, is home to leading global suppliers of products from smartphones and computer displays to cars and ships, and is the first major economy to report trade figures each month. REUTERS

[basically]

In Italy, world’s oldest bank faces uncertain future
September 2nd, 2012





19 Signs That Israel And Iran Are On The Verge Of War
September 2nd, 2012





Israelis prepares for war with Iran
September 1st, 2012










as I said many time here....Italy down, global down this time.....oldest banks of Italy down, Italy gone.....
be very patient....will see all these starting from this yr......eventually many Euro countries will exit 1 by 1 eventually.....
all near breaking point now....stop printing for them....all will leave now....cannot take it liao....

Iran war is also a super major event in near future.....not only oil shoot up in great depression...all die.....it will spread fast to regional war....
more job cut, salary cut, economy collapse, yet oil price shoot with inflation in food & daily necessity.....disposable income will crash....rate hike, mortgage loan will stop.....huge retrenchment, rental no more.....much more....

great time to squeeze all debt with rate hike.....best time to slaughter all borrowers of loan & mortgage....no mercy......

[EBD]

That's the biggist lie from the most panicky shameless moron fool

Basic & Basically combined 4800 posts in this thread.
Phantom only posted 700+

Check this out guys
http://forums.condosingapore.com/mis...posted&t=12285

Your maths is a little off..... should be 5800

[seletar]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...sang-says.html

Hong Kong Recession Risk May Increase on Exports, Tsang Says


Bloomberg.com
By Simon Lee - Sep 3, 2012 8:58 AM GMT+0800


Hong Kong’s risk of a “technical recession” may increase after declines in exports and a slowdown in retail sales, Financial Secretary John Tsang said.

“We are unable to escape the impact of the European debt crisis,” Tsang wrote on his blog yesterday in Chinese. He didn’t give a forecast for third-quarter gross domestic product.

Hong Kong’s economy shrank 0.1 percent in the second quarter from the previous three months as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe capped export demand. China’s slowdown is dragging on trade, weighing on confidence and encouraging the millions of mainlanders who visit each month to spend less on luxury goods.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index (HSI) is down about 10 percent from this year’s high in February. Retail sales grew in July at the slowest pace since the global financial crisis. Exports fell 3.5 percent from a year earlier.

A shrinking economy would add to challenges for Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying, who took office July 1 and faces public concern over housing costs, the gap between rich and poor and the mainland government’s role in education. Thousands of residents demonstrated on Sept. 1 to protest a planned education program they say will be Communist Party propaganda.

Retail figures are “worrying” and it will be difficult for exports to return to growth in the short term, Tsang said, adding that the city also faces a risk of rising unemployment.

Donna Kwok, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong, said Aug. 30 that visitors from China are paring spending on luxury goods and consumer confidence has weakened,“weighed down by continued turbulence in global financial markets.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Lee in Hong Kong at [email protected]

[seletar]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48881149

China HSBC PMI Drops to Worst Level Since March 2009

Published: Sunday, 2 Sep 2012 | 10:39 PM ET
By: Reuters


A contraction in China's factory sector activity intensified in August as both output and new orders dropped while manufacturers cut prices to compete for business, a survey showed on Monday.

The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index fell to a seasonally adjusted 47.6, its lowest level since March 2009. The reading was little changed from a flash, or preliminary, estimate of 47.8 and was lower than 49.3 in July.

The HSBC finding echoed the results of China's official PMI, released on Saturday, which hit a nine-month low in August, falling to a lower-than-expected 49.2 from 50.1 in July.

It was the first time the official PMI had fallen below 50 points, the threshold dividing expansion from contraction, since November 2011.

August marked the 10th straight month that the HSBC survey, which better reflects smaller and private-sector manufacturers, has been below 50.

The employment sub-index fell for the sixth month in a row, to its worst reading since March 2009.

The Australian dollar fell to six-week lows on Monday after a weak reading of retail sales added to worries about a slowing Chinese economy and raised the risk of more rate cuts.

The Aussie slipped 0.7 percent to $1.0250 <AUD=D4>, from $1.0290 in early local trade, having dipped as low as $1.0239, its weakest since late July after a raft of disappointing data at home.

[basically]

Apple’s Share of China Smartphone Market Drops 50%
August 24th, 2012





Apple Loses Patent Lawsuit Against Samsung in Japan




Samsung Completely Destroyed Apple In Smartphone Shipments Last Quarter (AAPL)
July 27th, 2012










apple market shares down drastically in china....many stop buying apple's product....wheher due to economy shrinking or price or sentiment.....
apple only win law suit in US....outside US almost all lost to samsung...in Korea, now in Japan.....Europe also support samsung....
sale of samsung smartphone globally is 3x or 300% higher than apple.....that is why apple want to whack down samsung....
that is why apple share not worth at all...the most US$80 by 2015....down from current $650....

asian all should stop buying apple product to show our support to samsung......support free market.....
apple product has nothing great....junk toys....what apple can do....samsung android can do better....

[seletar]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ng-target.html

China Deterioration Raises Risk of Wen Missing Target: Economy

By Bloomberg News - Sep 3, 2012 10:59 AM GMT+0800


China’s economy is showing mounting signs of deterioration from manufacturers to banks, raising the risk that outgoing Premier Wen Jiabao will miss his growth target for the first time since taking office in 2003.

Manufacturing slowed further in August, surveys ofpurchasing managers showed Sept. 1 and today, with one gauge at the lowest level since March 2009. The readings added to evidence of weakness after a surfeit of unsold goods left near-record rubber stocks at China’s main hub for the commodity and financial strains saw a 27 percent jump in overdue loans at the five biggest banks in the first half.

China hasn’t failed to exceed the Communist Party’s annual growth target since the throes of the Asian financial crisis in 1998, and a miss of this year’s 7.5 percent goal may complicate a once-a-decade leadership handover. The outgoing generation of policy makers has held back on stimulus this year as it seeks to rein in a property-market boom and avoid a jump in bad debt.

“If there is no further policy response, it’s very likely that GDP growth will fall below the target and this administration will likely hand over a hard-landing economy to the next one,” said Liu Li-Gang, chief China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. The central bank should “revert to cutting banks’ reserve requirements more aggressively to revitalize the economy. If we have a cut soon we could have good fourth-quarter growth.”


Financial Strains

The risk of below-7-percent expansion could potentially trigger financial distress or even a crisis if local governments run out of money, said Liu, who has worked for the World Bankand Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Underscoring a buildup in strains, Construction Bank Corp. reported its overdue loans in the eastern manufacturing and export hub of the Yangtze River Delta doubled to 16.8 billion yuan ($2.6 billion).

Liu cut his estimate for full-year expansion to 7.8 percent from 8.2 percent after the release of the official manufacturing purchasing managers index. The gauge fell to 49.2 from 50.1 in July, below the estimates of 24 of the 25 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.

A separate manufacturing PMI released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics was at 47.6, indicating the fastest contraction in more than three years. A government services PMI showed a faster expansion in August.

The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP), China’s benchmark stock gauge, rose 0.4 percent at 10:48 a.m. local time. It fell 2 percent last week to the lowest level since February 2009, and is heading for its first three straight years of annual declines since the Shanghai Stock Exchange opened in December 1990.


Yuan Drop

The yuan, which has weakened 0.9 percent this year, is on pace for its second annual decline since the country overhauled the exchange-rate system in 2005 and removed a peg to the U.S. dollar.

ANZ is the latest bank to lower its growth forecast. Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. on Aug. 31 cut its projection to 7.6 percent from 8.1 percent while Bank of America Corp. reduced its estimate last month to 7.7 percent from 8 percent.

Asia’s next two largest economies are also showing signs of slowing. Japan’s industrial production unexpectedly slumped in July, data showed Aug. 31. India reported the same day that its gross domestic product increased 5.5 percent last quarter from a year ago, down from an 8 percent pace in the same period in 2011.

The slowdown in growth has dissipated inflation pressures, with South Korea today reporting consumer prices rose 1.2 percent in August from a year before, down from the 1.5 percent increase the previous month. Indonesia may report its inflation rate fell to 4.41 percent from 4.56 percent and Thailand is forecast to say its rate eased to 2.62 percent from 2.73 percent, Bloomberg News surveys showed.


Europe’s Manufacturing

A gauge of euro-area manufacturing may confirm a contraction for a 13th straight month in August. The U.S. observes its Labor Day holiday today. Three days ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he’s prepared to deploy additional asset purchases amid an American unemployment rate that’s “far above” the Fed’s mandate.

Economic growth has slowed for six quarters to 7.6 percent in the three months through June from 9.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 as Europe’s debt crisis crimped exports and a prolonged crackdown on property speculation damped domestic demand.

The slowing will continue this quarter to 7.4 percent, according to Lu Ting, at Bank of America in Hong Kong, the No. 1 forecaster on China in Bloomberg Markets’ annual ranking of global economists for the two years through September 2011. He said there’s a risk the full-year rate will be below 7.5 percent, and growth may miss his forecast if the government “fails to roll out further policy measures in the next few months.”


Lower Target

Growth averaged 10.9 percent from 2005 to 2011 when the target was 8 percent and was as high as 14.2 percent in 2007. The government set a goal of an average 7 percent expansion for the five-year plan that runs through 2015.

Industrial companies’ earnings fell in July by the most this year, according to government data. The nation’s steelmakers posted a 96 percent drop in first-half profit as demand weakened and prices fell, the China Iron and Steel Association said July 31.

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., the world’s third-biggest maker of building equipment, is shutting its Chinese plant for two weeks a month until October due to a sales slump, President Yuichi Tsujimoto said in an Aug. 29 interview.

Inventories of rubber at Qingdao port, the country’s main hub for the car-tire material, were forecast to match a January record last month on a weaker auto market, Li Xiangou, chairman of the city’s rubber exchange, said in an Aug. 17 interview.


Retailer Pain

Retailers are also suffering. Parkson Retail Group Ltd., which operates more than 50 department stores in China, said first-half same-store sales rose at less than a quarter the pace of a year earlier and sportswear seller Li Ning Co. (2331) shut 1,200 shops in the six months ending June 30.

China’s government has refrained from a stimulus on the scale of the 4 trillion yuan package unveiled during the global financial crisis that helped keep growth above 9 percent in 2008 and 2009 while the rest of the world slumped.

Wen said in October the government would “fine tune”economic policies. Since then, banks’ reserve requirement ratios have been cut three times, approvals for investment projects have been accelerated and social security and health spending have risen. The central bank lowered interest rates in June for the first time in three years and cut them again in July.


Stimulus Reticence

“The lack of really decisive bold action over the last few months signifies at least in some part the government is content with a growth figure closer to the actual target than perhaps they would have previously liked,” said Alistair Thornton, an IHS Global Insight economist in Beijing. “They’ve got sufficient clout to turn things around if they really want to and they’ll only really want to when the labor market feels the impact.”

A growth rate of 7.5 percent to 8 percent would still compare well with the world’s biggest economies. The International Monetary Fund’s latest forecasts, published in July, put U.S. expansion this year at 2 percent and Japan’s at 2.4 percent with the euro area contracting 0.3 percent.

Even so, China is at risk of repeating the experience of South Korea in the 1990s, where a slower pace of growth resulted in a “significant deterioration” in profits as companies were burdened with higher fixed costs from capital spending booms aimed at supporting the economy, according to Duncan Wooldridge, chief Asia economist at UBS AG in Hong Kong.


Lending Hangover

“China’s reluctance so far this year to replicate the investment surge in 2009 is a good thing even if it delays a cyclical improvement by a few quarters,” Wooldridge wrote in the Aug. 30 note.

With less than seven months left in office, Wen may need to leave the task of reviving growth to new crop of government officials due to take over in March 2013 after the annual session of the National People’s Congress.

“There have been rising concerns within policy circles in Beijing that the government’s growth target of 7.5 percent for the year may be at risk,” said Ramin Toloui, Singapore-based global co-head of emerging-markets portfolio management at Pacific Investment Management Co., which manages the world’s largest bond fund.

“More policy easing helps shield against a major contraction, but is unlikely to catalyze a strong recovery because the economy and financial sector is still digesting the large investments made in recent years,” said Toloui, who visits Beijing several times a year.

--Nerys Avery, Kevin Hamlin. Editors: Scott Lanman, Paul Panckhurst
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Nerys Avery in Beijing at [email protected]; Kevin Hamlin in Beijing at [email protected]

[PN]

Your maths is a little off..... should be 5800

Ah B already has 5800 posts?
Very panic indeed.

[basically]

Charting China's 'Monetary Policy' Impotence
08/31/2012









with china weak economy data.....many shouted stimulus, cut rate or.....
3 engines of china growth are all dying.....global demand, domestic growth or investment......
global demand shrinking can see from BDI...crash down to 700 from 2000+ beginning of this yr.....
local growth are crashing dwon from property, cars, electrical & electronics demand....all crashing down now....death now....
funds & investment are pulling out of china at faster speed now...dumping all asset & run road now....

cut rate will soften RMB further where RMB was plunging down recently & govt is very concern about it due to funds pulling out.....so will not cut rate for now....
drought & flood caused inflation to shoot up to 2+% now....so unlikely to print for now....
face globally currency attack.....the best is stay put for now....
only fools keep shouting in other thread without knowing anything......

[basically]

all these moronic liar king......forever....

almost 600,000 views......this forum is super panic......

[basically]

RED ALERT: September Begins, World’s Economies Are CRASHING! PMI Numbers Crashing Across The World. CHINA HSBC PMI FALLS TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MARCH 2009!!!
September 2nd, 2012



SCORECARD
• Japan: Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI — 47.7, down from 47.9 in July
• China: Official PMI – 49.2, down from 50.1 in July
• South Korea: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 47.5, up from 47.2 in July.
• Netherlands: NEVI Manufacturing PMI — 49.7, up from 48.9 in July.
• Taiwan: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 46.1, down from 47.5 in July.
• China: HSBC Manufacturing PMI — 47.6, down from 49.3 in July.
• Indonesia: Markit Manufacturing PMI — 51.6, up from 51.4 in July.
• Monday, 9/3, 3:15 AM: Spain Manufacturing PMI. Expected: 42.8. Previous: 42.3.
• Monday, 9/3, 3:30 AM: Czech Republic Manufacturing PMI. Previous: 49.5.
• Monday, 9/3, 3:30 AM: Switzerland Manufacturing PMI. Expected: 49.1. Previous: 48.6.
• Monday, 9/3, 3:45 AM: Italy Manufacturing PMI. Expected: 45.0. Previous: 44.3.
• Monday, 9/3, 3:50 AM: France Manufacturing PMI. Expected: 46.2. Previous: 46.2.
• Monday, 9/3, 3:55 AM: Germany Manufacturing PMI. Expected: 45.1. Previous: 45.1.
• Monday, 9/3, 4:00 AM: Greece Manufacturing PMI. Previous: 41.9.
• Monday, 9/3, 4:00 AM: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI. Expected: 45.3. Previous: 45.3.
• Monday, 9/3, 4:30 AM: U.K. Manufacturing PMI. Expected: 46.1. Previous: 45.4.
• Monday, 9/3, 5:00 AM: Denmark PMI Survey. Previous: 46.5.








global PMI are shrinking & contracting badly for last 6-12 months....imagine all manufacturing was shrinking every month in last 6- 12 month....what else left?? yet stock want to cheong?? cheong to ho lan lah....all already empty shell, no more production, no order, no business....cut jobs & pay now.....that is why global stock index up but >90% of stocks down everywhere......all the fake, lies, fraud, magic & manipulation...everywhere & every sectors including property.....

tomorrow will see US PMI, ISM....US is world #1 data manipulation now.....
tomorrow all fund managers to come back from holiday....time for action to whack down....sept 15 is always a nice date....

PMI crash....BDI crash...GDP also in recession now....bad debt shot up...job lost....better run fast before global market crash down free fall.....

[PN]

all these moronic liar king......forever....

almost 600,000 views......this forum is super panic......

No this forum not panic but

This thread started by Ah B very panic

[basically]

Today ST 3/9/12...A3

" Developers delay high-end launches"..

"Property consultancy Savills Singapore noted in a report that prices of new non landed luxury homes dipped 6 per cent to $2,230 per sq ft (psf) in the second quarter. This is on top of a 5 per cent fall in the first three months of this year "


Read the rest on ST...

[basically]

Credit Suisse relocating some Singapore jobs: -- It's only the beginning


This is only the beginning and more to come from the other banks.....thanks to the HIGH Property Prices created by PAP.
All the efforts to attract financial services data processing and back-office jobs since 2003/4 all gone down the drain....

Credit suisse is closing down it's office in changi business park totally......


--------------
Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX) is relocating dozens of back-office jobs from Singapore to India and Poland as part of efforts to cut costs, the Financial Times reported on Monday.
The newspaper cites two people familiar with the situation as saying the bank was relocating back-office staff to India and Poland, without stating the number of jobs set to relocate.

Credit Suisse is in the middle of a program to cut costs by the end of 2013 to adapt to a drastic slowdown in investment banking revenues and lower profitability in the sector.

[Rysk]

I think I have wasted too much time with him ...

Me worst.. Since "Price decreasing.." in 2008 Luxus Hills $1.6-mil.......
till "... price coming down fast" in 2011 Luxus Hill $2.4-mil.......
till now Luxus Hills $2.9-mil..
http://www.sg-house.com/classifieds/...-property.html