Glad you are.back our obedient wuss. Now we command you to keep posting for.the whole of.November to entertain us. Go. Get it done or face e warth of punishment. Go go go.
Newbie
Glad you are.back our obedient wuss. Now we command you to keep posting for.the whole of.November to entertain us. Go. Get it done or face e warth of punishment. Go go go.
Senior
Basic, can point out a few quality development already down 10% from its peak. Minus away sentosa that speculative island. That would be most helpful. Macro factors I am already following.
Newbie
Hi Basic , if we sell now, then what we do with the funds?Originally Posted by basic
only fool buy property now....I will not buy any property in next 2 yrs, even 3 yrs....whether is up or down, money is no problem, believe in your homework, skill & knowledge....do the right thing, let market be the judge....property only...stock, gold, commodity, currency, metal,oil...can also discuss if interested....
Should we keep in SGD , USD, Yen or what asset class?
Can u give some suggestions ? Thanks
Newbie
I for one am glad basic is around to post alternative view of the mkt. Minus the personal attacks, job well done.
Exalted
if tats the case, basic is correct mah......px did crash after may08
pls look at PPI......PPI was peaked at 2Q 2008
Exalted
so can u explain wat u meant in your post made in may08?
Exalted
the personal attack oredi a big turn off lehI for one am glad basic is around to post alternative view of the mkt. Minus the personal attacks, job well done.
'only fools will buy now'
Senior
Whether we agree with Basic or not, we all agree that buying now at this current climate is dangerous unless absolutely no choice!Actually I do hope that Basic is right so can re-enter market again!
Exalted
last time if i say only fools will buy after 14th Jan 2011......duno offended how many bros here? LOLWhether we agree with Basic or not, we all agree that buying now at this current climate is dangerous unless absolutely no choice!
i haf been holding cash since mid 2010......1yr 4mths had past and my cash eroded by more den 4% liao
Junior
Basic.... i want to listen to you and stick the the issue.... and FACTs.... Can you help me answer the following please....
1. when in the history of SIN did property prices drop 50%?
2. Can you name me three condo development that has drop 20% now?
I really appreciate your help.....
When I seen these two "Facts" I will sell my property now.....
Exalted
for q1) he did mentioned tat this time round is much worse den 97 crash....so he is expecting at least 50% crash since 97 had crashed by about 40% rite
for q2) he so far cant provide any la....just tell us to search for it and he is not an agent
Senior
More HK homes sink below mortgage values
Govt will monitor housing policies designed to curb prices, says official
(HONG KONG) The rising number of Hong Kong homeowners with apartments worth less than their mortgages may further hurt sentiment already damped by the global equity rout and government curbs, according to Barclays Capital Research.
The estimated number of mortgages in 'negative equity' jumped to 1,653 at the end of the third quarter from 48 three months earlier, with the value of those loans rising to HK$4.1 billion (S$659.8 million) from HK$58 million, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said on Oct 28. An index tracking the city's developers fell yesterday.
The number 'provides the first clear evidence of the on-going decline in Hong Kong property prices,' Barclays' Hong Kong-based analysts Andrew Lawrence and Vivien Chan wrote in a report yesterday. 'Further price falls are expected to follow.' The threat of a global economic slowdown is intensifying risks in Hong Kong's home market and the government will monitor housing policies designed to curb prices, Financial Secretary John Tsang said on Oct 27. Home transactions fell for a ninth straight month in September, while prices declined 3 percent from June to August, government statistics show.
The Hang Seng Property Index, which tracks the city's seven-biggest developers, fell 1.6 per cent at the close in Hong Kong, the biggest decline among the four industry groups in the benchmark Hang Seng Index. It declined 16 per cent this year, compared with the 14 percent drop in the benchmark gauge.
Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd, the world's biggest developer, fell 1.1 per cent to HK$108.40. Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd, the builder controlled by Hong Kong's richest man, Li Ka-shing, slid 0.4 per cent to HK$97.80.
Rising negative equity 'suggests that bank valuations for mortgages are falling quickly,' wrote Mr Lawrence, who forecast home prices may drop as much as 30 per cent by 2013 in an earlier report. 'Homebuyers will either need to use more equity to fund their home purchases or negotiate lower prices.'
The number of negative equity loans last quarter is at the highest since the second quarter of 2009. The figure reached a peak of 106,000 at the end of June 2003, when Hong Kong's home prices ended a six-year slump that wiped about two-thirds off values on average.
Hong Kong's Chief Executive Donald Tsang promised to provide more affordable homes and signalled greater government intervention in narrowing social inequality in his Oct 12 policy address, responding to a public outcry over the more-than 70 per cent surge in home prices since early 2009.
The government has in the past year raised minimum down- payment requirements on some home mortgage loans and increased land sales in an effort to curb soaring prices fueled by record low mortgage rates, a shortage of new apartment supply and an influx of buyers from other parts of China. Banks in Hong Kong have raised mortgage rates five times since March. -- Bloomberg
Music of the night
Worsty is right, this guys is a Ferrous Cranus.
Ferrous Cranus is utterly impervious to reason, persuasion and new ideas, and when engaged in battle he will not yield an inch in his position regardless of its hopelessness. Though his thrusts are decisively repulsed, his arguments crushed in every detail and his defenses demolished beyond repair he will remount the same attack again and again with only the slightest variation in tactics. Sometimes out of pure frustration Philosopher will try to explain to him the failed logistics of his situation, or Therapist will attempt to penetrate the psychological origins of his obduracy, but, ever unfathomable, Ferrous Cranus cannot be moved.
Ride at your own risk !!!
Junior
Super-rich want to leave mainland
Half those with assets of more than 10 million yuan are considering emigration, survey finds
I hv some problems in copying out.
Last edited by Laguna; 01-11-11 at 10:09.
Exalted
no mention Sg ...
Junior
I am now checking on the actual report : Hurun Reportno mention Sg ...
perhaps u can help
Junior
One of the latest launch in HK SCMP 26 Oct 2011
Buoyed by solid buyer demand for a luxury development in Aberdeen, and a rebound in the stock market, a number of developers hope to cash in on improved market sentiment by launching pricey projects.
Developer K Wah International has indicated it will raise prices for its luxury residential development, Marinella, in Sham Wan, Aberdeen, after selling 210 of the 255 flats released this month in the first phase of sales at an average price of HK$20,000 per square foot.
Encouraged by that response, Sun Hung Kai Properties (SEHK: 0016) announced it would release 50 flats for sale at The Wings, above the Tseung Kwan O MTR station, at an average price of HK$12,698 per square foot. A 2,560 sq ft flat with rooftop, private pool and two car parking spaces will be offered at HK$51.2 million, or HK$20,000 per square foot.
The prices at The Wings are pitched above those of deals completed at The Waterfront in Kowloon Station at an average price of HK$11,111 per square foot.
They are also priced higher than those of five Taikoo Shing flats sold last week, which fetched an average of HK$9,641 per square feet.
SHKP says the flats will be put on sale as early as tomorrow.
Sino Land will today release 58 homes at One Mayfair in Kowloon Tong - a traditional luxury address - at prices that will range between HK$15,686 and HK$20,808 per square foot, with flats priced between HK$21.2 million and HK$45 million.
Yesterday, the developer released an additional three homes - two with gardens and one with a roof garden and ranging in size from 1,607 square feet to 2,436 square feet - priced at between HK$27,600 and HK$29,380 per square foot. The 2,436 sq ft flat with 1,333 sq ft roof garden commands the highest price per square foot of the three, and costs HK$71.56 million.
Wing Tai Properties is stepping up marketing of its luxury development at 9 Warren Street in Tai Hang, agents said.
"To take advantage of the improved atmosphere, more developers will release their luxury developments in coming weeks. The strong sales outcome at Kowloon Tong and Tseung Kwan O will further boost the prospects of the luxury residential sector," said Sammy Po Siu-ming, a director at estate agency Midland Realty.
Also boosting the confidence of developers who are about to release their luxury projects is the performance of the Hong Kong stock market. After a sustained fall that took the benchmark Hang Seng Index to a low of 17,983 points last Thursday, the index had rebounded to 18,968.2 points by the close yesterday.
But market sentiment remained cautious, said Po, and the reaction to the release of the two latest luxury projects was not likely to be as positive as that for new mass-housing projects, which attracted hundreds of buyers on their launch day.
"There won't be a big volume of sales, as most of these flats cost more than HK$20 million," he said.
While there were many cash-rich buyers who did not need to raise mortgages, the limits on home loans could weigh on sales, said Po. The maximum loan-to-value ratio for mortgages on properties costing HK$10 million or more was lowered from 60 per cent to 50 per cent in June.
Nonetheless, SHKP had pitched The Wings at prices close to those being paid at nearby Kowloon Station, indicating that it was confident about the attractions of its brand name and the quality of the project, Po said.
"It aims to reinvent The Wings as another Cullinan at Tseung Kwan O, but offering units at half of what it achieved at Kowloon Station."
The average launch price at The Wings is 47 per cent lower than the HK$24,300 per square foot for which properties in The Cullinan at Kowloon Station sell on average.
The Wings, comprising 1,028 flats, is part of an integrated development that includes two hotels - a Crowne Plaza and a Holiday Inn Express - grade A offices and a shopping mall.
Lee Wee Liat, regional head of property research at Samsung Securities, noted SHKP's strategy was to launch in "reverse order".
"They put out the most expensive units first and then gradually sell those units at lower prices. They think it will be much easier to sell the higher-end units as they are still bullish on the luxury sector while cautious on the mid- to mass market segment," he said.
Cheung Kong (Holdings) (SEHK: 0001) said it might release the remaining three-bedroom flats at La Splendeur in Tseung Kwan O over the weekend.
A K Wah spokesman said that about 30 per cent of the Marinella buyers were mainlanders.
Derek Lau, a sales director for Centaline Property Agency's southwestern district, said flats at Marinella were being offered at about 13 per cent less than the HK$23,000 per square foot the market had expected.
"Most buyers will hold for long-term investment or leasing to bet on a further increase in prices. Investors account for 50 per cent of buyers," he said.
Lau said sales in the secondary market in the district had dropped as much as 30 per cent, as market attention turned to the primary market whenever a new development was released for sale. [email protected]
Music of the night
My own analysis of China:
1. China government finally managed to engineer a soft landing in its property market. Their target is something like 40% correction. It is a very safe / controlled operation because demand for affordable housing is way higher than the supply. Basic failed to highlight the supply-demand situation, instead just shouting price correction will spread to HK/SG without providing any analysis at all. Compare this to Japan property bubble last time, Japan government failed to control the price and let it hit 10,000 USD psf and suffered a 90% crash which leads to near zero growth until now. Therefore, we must applaud the Chinese government for doing the right thing at the right time. From another angle, even price corrects by 40% it is not cheap, Beijing 4th ring is 1000psf, correct 40% still 600psf.
2. Inflation
China inflation is expected to moderate to 3% next year. This will give them more room on minor adjustment in macro policy if required to moderate the property price correction.
万科降价了！
本报记者获悉，万科北京公司旗下金隅万科城即将于11月推出三期新房源，均价14000元/平方米，比之上期房源低了3000元/平方米；与此同时，万科深圳公司旗下项目金域缇香也将于11月推出均价万元左右的精装修房源，比此前开盘价优惠约1000元左右。
此外，深圳万科公园里、惠州万科城、东莞紫台等项目也推出不同幅度的优惠措施。事实上，2011年以来，万科的降价一直在持续，只不过更为隐蔽，降幅也呈递进式，随着一期期新房源的推出，价格也更为优惠。
不只是万科，在深圳，招商果岭在10月29日以低于区域均价数千元的价格入市，在惠州，卓越蔚蓝海岸更推出均价4900元/平方米的成本价房源。
几大房产大鳄中，继中海、龙湖之后，随着11月份的到来，深圳开发商接棒上海，万科、招商、卓越等开发商领衔掀起又一轮降价潮，大型开发商降价背后，既有“调控将长期持续”预期下市场竞争的压力，也有年度冲击业绩的压力，而更多的中小开发商则跟风跳水或转手，全国性的降价潮大幕或将开启。
Ride at your own risk !!!
Senior
i am not sure exactly what he mentioned about SOR and Sibor
but when SOR turned negative a couple of months ago .. i know for a fact , banks lost alot of money ..
not so much as in loans to borrower pegged at SOR .. but bank's trading protfolio ... never expected that SOR could turn negative
as far as i know ... alot of my friends who own multiple props ..are or have started selling their props .. and are either expecting prices to stagnate or down ..
my friends may not represent the whole property markets ... but we started buying from 2005 ... and they have been right ... and made the list of 'millionaires' .. and now 9/10 feel the tide is changing ...
are we being prudent ? protecting profit ?
or is it a real change in trend ?
time will tell
Exalted
one thing for sure: recently,resale market is dead dead dead.....abit of interest started last wkend only.....
Newbie
I wouldn't call 40% correction a soft landing. What is the financial consequences and knock on effects when this correction comes to fruition?
Senior
But if you manage to buy a property which is 20% down, then you also gain >10% so no worries. Only fear that the drop will not come yet!last time if i say only fools will buy after 14th Jan 2011......duno offended how many bros here? LOL
i haf been holding cash since mid 2010......1yr 4mths had past and my cash eroded by more den 4% liao
Junior
basic can you confirm you did say SOR went up 1.2% ? Thanks.
Attached here is the SOR12M chart for the last 6 months. The lowest was -0.2, yesterday was high about +0.56, a total gain of about 0.76%.
Senior
I will stay outside China if I have that kind of money and make $ there. My family is exposed to health risk like breathing quesionable air, consuming questionable water and food, etc.
Junior
actually I'm also expecting prices to stagnate or down. it's an opinion. no issue with that.
the reason basic gets a lot of attacks is because he mixes opinions with facts, and he use opinions to defend his opinions, it's a vicious cycle. and he likes to give lecture to others as if they are all very naive. this of course does not go down very well for any one. no one likes to be called stupid.
nonetheless it's an entertaining read.always good to have an opposite view.
So I did my contribution (on the SOR chart), and will continue reading
Music of the night
That is because you don't understand China. Their stock market gone from 1000 to 6000 and back to 1,800, tell me what knock-on effects? Due to lack of public housing, China properties are the playground for the rich (cash ... no loan), most young couples who worked many years still cannot afford to buy unless they get help from parents. Even market corrects 40%, it is still very expensive to the middle class.I wouldn't call 40% correction a soft landing. What is the financial consequences and knock on effects when this correction comes to fruition?
Ride at your own risk !!!
Junior
on another note, assuming china agrees to be the white knight in shining armor to EFSF, the bonds will be denoted in yuan. this is a nightmare in the making with the other side of the atlantic shouting for penalties upon the chinese government for not letting the yuan appreciate further.
with an expected depreciation of the euros and assuming that the chinese do bow to pressure, this is a nightmare scenario for the euro zone as they have to fork out more to service their debts.
can only visualize merkel & sarkozy banning mac donald's, wal-marts and anything else from the stars & spangled country.
Senior
Agree with your diagnosis of the situation!actually I'm also expecting prices to stagnate or down. it's an opinion. no issue with that.
the reason basic gets a lot of attacks is because he mixes opinions with facts, and he use opinions to defend his opinions, it's a vicious cycle. and he likes to give lecture to others as if they are all very naive. this of course does not go down very well for any one. no one likes to be called stupid.
nonetheless it's an entertaining read.
So I did my contribution (on the SOR chart), and will continue reading
Banned
actually I'm also expecting prices to stagnate or down. it's an opinion. no issue with that.
the reason basic gets a lot of attacks is because he mixes opinions with facts, and he use opinions to defend his opinions, it's a vicious cycle. and he likes to give lecture to others as if they are all very naive. this of course does not go down very well for any one. no one likes to be called stupid.
nonetheless it's an entertaining read.
So I did my contribution (on the SOR chart), and will continue reading
there are 3 posts answering your qusetions, but you keep coming back with same question yet made such comment on me....
If you read, then all answer is there, why ask again?....
go to #362, #374 & #418....the chart is on #362, that is 3M chart, you can click to 12M if you want.....
I am not interested in arguing or use opinion to answer opinion, what I wrote is all fact from news, but I don't copy the reports here...don't believe, check yourself or you can say news is wrong...look at most forumers in this thread, expect me to spoonfeed them?? kena whacked, act as office boy for them or say thank you to them?.....
I am not interested whether you want to buy or sell your property, what is the price of individual projects or HDB….
as for the noise, just ignore…just post what I like to post, take it or leave it….
will reply some sensible & good forumers thru’ PM, but will not share in open postings…
Banned
I wouldn't call 40% correction a soft landing. What is the financial consequences and knock on effects when this correction comes to fruition?
sure...if 40% price drop across whole china....some china top banks will go bankrupt....although their stress test said can withstand 50%....you turst them??.....
China will not crash themselves, wait for external force...china is not as strong as many thought....their local debt, bad debt & corruption are very high....
let see tomorrow G20, US will force China to appreciate RMB, then start a trade war soon.....
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