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Thread: No sign of slowdown in private home buying

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    Default No sign of slowdown in private home buying

    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...67940,00.html?

    Published October 18, 2011

    No sign of slowdown in private home buying

    Analysts say strong sales are driven by developers rolling out new projects

    By KALPANA RASHIWALA


    (SINGAPORE) The latest developer sales numbers for September gave no hint of any slowdown in private home buying.

    Most analysts said September's surprisingly strong sales, released yesterday by the Urban Redevelopment Authority, were driven by developers rolling out new projects, especially in Outside Central Region, where mass-market developments are located, at prices that buyers still found reasonable.

    'There is fear of investing in alternative instruments and relative safety in a brick-and-mortar asset class like real estate. Interest rates are still low,' notes DTZ's SE Asia chief operating officer Ong Choon Fah.

    The 1,631 private homes excluding executive condos (ECs) developers sold in September was up 20.7 per cent month on month and the second best showing so far this year (after April's 1,805 units). The number of private homes launched in September - 1,919 - was also the second highest year to date after the 2,055 units in April.

    In addition, developers sold 433 executive condos (ECs) last month, up about 49 per cent from August. CB Richard Ellis executive director Li Hiaw Ho says sales momentum for ECs was likely to have been boosted by the $2,000 increase in the monthly household income ceiling for new EC buyers to $12,000 announced in mid-August.

    Including ECs, developers found buyers for 2,064 units in September, a month-on-month increase of 25.8 per cent.

    Analysts say that to some extent, last month's strong sales were driven by launches. Developers released 2,493 private homes including ECs in September, up almost 81 per cent from August.

    Outside Central Region or OCR (where mass-market projects are located) was the star performer, accounting for 78.4 per cent of total 1,919 units launched and 81 per cent of the 1,631 units (excluding ECs) sold in September. Launches and sales in OCR were led by A Treasure Trove near Punggol MRT Station, which saw 683 units sold last month at a median price of $915 psf.

    Colliers International's analysis showed that about 59 per cent of the 1,631 private homes sold by developers in September were priced at $1,000 psf or less.

    Based on monthly sales data, developers have sold 4,380 private homes for Q3 2011 (although URA will release the final figures for Q3 on Oct 28, factoring in returned units). The preliminary Q3 number is 1.4 per cent lower than the Q2 figure and takes the tally for the first nine months of 2011 to 12,419, slightly ahead of the 12,051 in the same period of 2010, notes Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui. 'This shows the market momentum in 2011 is holding well. It is possible that 2011 will end with almost as many units sold as in 2010 - unless a major calamity occurs in Q4,' he added.

    For the whole of last year, developers sold 16,292 private homes and 1,052 ECs. EC sales in the first nine months of 2011 totalled 2,468.

    Top sellers in September included EuHabitat at Jalan Eunos (138 units at median price of $1,191 psf) and The Meyerise at Meyer Road (108 units sold at $1,789 psf median price). Arc At Tampines, the first EC project launched after the announcement of the higher income ceiling for EC buyers, registered sales of 233 units at a median price of $734 psf in September.

    Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng feels the buying momentum could continue. He argues that developers can launch new projects at lower prices as land prices at recent state tenders have fallen.

    Meanwhile, MCL Land is said to have sold out over the past two weeks its 121-unit freehold cluster housing project Este Villa in the Seletar Hills area. An intermediate terrace house has a strata area of about 3,400 sq ft and is priced at about $2.1-2.2 million on average or about $600-plus per square foot.

    BT's analysis showed that home buyers returned about 70-plus units in September, including EC units. Euhabitat topped the list with 17 units returned, followed by Boathouse Residences (12 units) and The Luxurie in Sengkang (5 units).

    The priciest unit sold by a developer in September was a unit at The Marq on Paterson Hill, which sold for $4,612 psf, followed by a Scotts Square unit which fetched $4,059 psf.

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    http://www.straitstimes.com/PrimeNew...ry_724455.html

    New private home sales hit high for year

    2,064 units sold last month, buoyed by mass market launches and wider EC eligibility

    Published on Oct 18, 2011

    By Esther Teo, Property Reporter


    NEW private home sales rocketed to 2,064 units last month - the highest level this year - as new mass market launches and wider eligibility for executive condominiums (ECs) kept market activity robust.

    This figure is 26 per cent higher than the 1,641 homes, including the increasingly popular ECs, sold in August.

    Even excluding ECs, sales still defied gravity, with buyers snapping up 1,631 units, 21 per cent more than the month before - and the highest in five months.

    Experts say that suburban homes continue to drive market activity, with mass market homes making up more than eight in 10 of all transactions.

    In particular, Sim Lian's new project A Treasure Trove, near Punggol MRT station, moved a whopping 683 units last month. Experts note that the project's median pricing of $915 per sq ft (psf) - below $1,000 psf - was its main draw.

    Other mass market projects such as EuHabitat at Jalan Eunos and the Boathouse Residences at Upper Serangoon View also saw healthy sales.

    Overall, affordability seemed to be the main selling point, with 49 per cent of units sold, excluding ECs, in the $750 psf to $1,000 psf range, Savills noted.

    PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail said that last month's sales were 'remarkable', indicating sustained buying interest from Housing Board upgraders.

    The raised household income ceiling for EC eligibility to $12,000 in August from $10,000 previously also prompted many to purchase ECs, he noted. ECs are a public-private housing hybrid.

    With HDB resale prices at their peak - they have gained more than 80 per cent in the past five years - the gap to move from public to private housing has also narrowed, and some HDB owners might have decided to cash out and upgrade at this point, Mr Ismail said.

    Mr Ong Teck Hui, Credo Real Estate's head of research and consultancy, said that despite worries of an economic slowdown, these buyers are mainly owner-occupiers adopting a long-term view of investments, and therefore not too concerned.

    It is a much quieter market, however, for pricier homes, with units in the city centre attracting only subdued interest.

    Dr Chua Yang Liang, head of research at Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) South-east Asia, said the market remains price sensitive. City centre and city fringe projects have a sales rate of less than 50 per cent, compared to more than 70 per cent for suburban homes. Sales of city centre homes fell to just 50 units last month - the lowest since January 2009.

    City fringe homes, however, saw sales jump 52 per cent to 260 units as developers pushed out more of such homes. Sales were buoyed mainly by 239-unit The Meyerise on Meyer Road, which found buyers for 108 of its apartments.

    But other analysts warn that while headline numbers remain bullish, the continued build-up of unsold homes and slower take-up at new launches warrant caution.

    Nomura analyst Sai Min Chow said in a research note that last month's new launches achieved only a 62 per cent take-up rate. This is compared to 79 per cent in August and 77 per cent a year ago.

    Stocks of unsold units also continue to build, with cumulative units launched but unsold inching up 6.4 per cent from August to 5,394 units last month, he said.

    And with the uncertain outlook, developers are likely to be monitoring the impact of the euro zone crisis on the economy here to time launches, experts add.

    CB Richard Ellis Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho said that the fourth quarter is unlikely to see the same level of take-up as the previous two quarters.

    'We expect the total new home sales volume (this year) to exceed the 14,688 units sold in 2009, but it remains to be seen whether it can outdo the record 16,292 units sold in 2010,' he said.

    JLL's Dr Chua said that while prices could fall if external conditions dip, the strong underlying housing demand would mean a strong rebound subsequently.

    [email protected]

  4. #4
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    So who's still taking about a price correction or property crash?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    So who's still taking about a price correction or property crash?
    Time will tells...but not now though..

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    Which development will be the start performer for Oct?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    Which development will be the start performer for Oct?
    The Bedoks

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    Which development will be the start performer for Oct?
    You mean star performer? I suspect its still ATT.

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    They sold most of their units in September I believe.

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    read this somewhere ...
    Buyers decide based on emotion and justify based on logic.

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    You always start with a hunch then weigh out the pros and ccons in detail as next steps.

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    That should be November not October as they are have VVIP preview in early-mid Nov.
    Quote Originally Posted by edwinleeap
    The Bedoks

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    So October should be slow month. Maybe 1200 new homes transacted.

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    Not so low as 1200 lah, including ECs?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    Not so low as 1200 lah, including ECs?
    Excluding. Don't think many EC launched in Oct.

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    writers/analysts always lagged behind market?
    like some said before, they wld have been milionaires - no offences

    debating with friends - i say would hold flat...some said would be seeing less demand and demand supply forces will kick in. some friendsquoted that prices psf advertised or asked never get sold. he said just wait when more supply come onboard.

    my take - interest rate remaining low would still have interests in property alternate investment

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    Prices will continue to rise and demands continue to be present as long as the following do not occur...

    1. Greece default
    2. Bank interest rates rises
    3. New cooling measures
    4. Unforseen outbreak like SARS, etc.


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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    Prices will continue to rise and demands continue to be present as long as the following do not occur...

    1. Greece default
    2. Bank interest rates rises
    3. New cooling measures
    4. Unforseen outbreak like SARS, etc.

    So its 50-50.
    Can go either way.

    3 and 4 not likely.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ysyap
    Prices will continue to rise and demands continue to be present as long as the following do not occur...

    1. Greece default
    2. Bank interest rates rises
    3. New cooling measures
    4. Unforseen outbreak like SARS, etc.

    5. Slump in China
    6. Euro disband
    7. Arab oil crisis

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    Technically, it depends whether Dow can overcome 12k resistance in next 3m
    Ride at your own risk !!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by phantom_opera
    Technically, it depends whether Dow can overcome 12k resistance in next 3m
    dow is too volatile, tonight it's already at 11900. doesn't count for much even if it crosses 12000.

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