Housing Sector in Singapore Only Getting Hotter

[ysyap]

i tink the difference is FEO can artificially hold up their prices during downturn....whereas HDB r obliged to adjust their ready flat prices acording to the resale px rite and thus further dampen the resale prices

demand can disappear overnite but supply of flats is fixed once is completed....cannot reduce overnite wor

however, i feel govt abit too slow to react this round....they shd push out alot more BTO in 2009 and 2010

That's what I've been saying.... complaints started pouring in in 2009 over no immed supply but only late last year did MBT promise many launches... it took them 1 to 2 years to respond. And his promise of more launches stop in 2011. Nothing specific is mention (not that I can remember) for 2012 and beyond... Can't help to correlate with what is gonna happen in 2011 and that's all... hmmm... just my opinion... hahaha

[chiaberry]

Current system of BTO seems to be the root of many of our property woes today (unfortunately). Wannabe heartlanders can't get hold of the HDB property that they wish for and yet resale/private property prices are escalating further out of their reach. Seems to be a lose-lose currently. Perhaps that's why MBT seems to be "singing" his song more frequently and loudly these days. Except maybe it is too late as others before me have remarked. Sad for the young newly ROM couple who wish to set up home and have kids. Difficult to get on the property ladder. How to boost the falling birth rate? By the time they get their BTO, some valuable time to get babies have been wasted.

[chiaberry]

i just pluck mi casa as an example since regulator r looking at it...it doesnt constitute to a buy call

Whoops pardon me. It is a relatively "remote" location to buy a rental unit for investment. I was just wondering since you make the figures look quite good when calculated. Thanks.

I did look at a show flat for a unit of such size in Sengkang a few weeks ago. It is seriously small (although the developer moved one entire wall of the show flat so that the small size was not so obvious. Not much room to swing a cat in the bedrooms. When I remarked this to the agent, she laughed and told me that all new units had this kind of size of bedroom nowadays.

[devilplate]

Whoops pardon me. It is a relatively "remote" location to buy a rental unit for investment. I was just wondering since you make the figures look quite good when calculated. Thanks.

er...i m not trying to make the figure look good....the rental is based on pptyguru asking px....eg: the warren 3bedder asking 3.5k nego....so i just put 3-3.5k...fair enuff rite?

[chiaberry]

Hmmm really can achieve? I should go to URA website and take a look. Agent asking price is not necessarily indicative of actual rental achieved. Or even if tenant can be found. Although we have much more info these days compared to previously but still not enough to make a good informed choice. And if miscalculated, it is a big investment (400K cash sunk in), therefore it would be a BIG mistake. It might not be so easy to dispose of such investment in the future. One example is Bishan 8. So well located and yet the price doesn't move well after so many years (my friend had a unit there and sold not so long ago after holding it for soooo long but didn't make much from it). Perhaps the 400K can generate a better return elsewhere.

[wind30]

i tink the difference is FEO can artificially hold up their prices during downturn....whereas HDB r obliged to adjust their ready flat prices acording to the resale px rite and thus further dampen the resale prices

demand can disappear overnite but supply of flats is fixed once is completed....cannot reduce overnite wor

however, i feel govt abit too slow to react this round....they shd push out alot more BTO in 2009 and 2010

HDB can just say they will not be selling those oversupply for 3 years.

The problem with zero inventory is that it is almost impossible to do anything if the market get hot suddenly. And you tend to over correct when you scramble to increase the supply which will not hit until 3-5 years later.

I know there can be a problem with holding too much inventory but going from too much inventory to ZERO inventory is too drastic and will cause more problems.

The solution is to fine tune the way they estimate demand, reduce their inventory, reduce their supply lead time.

Unfortunately our minister solution is zero inventory.

[devilplate]

By the time they get their BTO, some valuable time to get babies have been wasted.

this one i goto disagree....i dun tink couples wana hf babies right after marriage nowadays....however, goto stay with in-laws while waiting for BTO....i believe gers nowadays dunwan tat....haha....20yrs back vy different from now oredi....tats y more complaints....hahaha

now yng couples die die wana hf their own roof and privacy right after their marriage....thus resulting in complaints.....hehe

[chiaberry]

this one i goto disagree....i dun tink couples wana hf babies right after marriage nowadays....however, goto stay with in-laws while waiting for BTO....i believe gers nowadays dunwan tat....haha....20yrs back vy different from now oredi....tats y more complaints....hahaha

now yng couples die die wana hf their own roof and privacy right after their marriage....thus resulting in complaints.....hehe

Sigh so is our population doomed? Declining numbers of "native" Singaporeans and increasing numbers of immigrants. We are a dying race. Did we bring up our kids wrongly that they have such attitude? Expectations of the young generation are so different.

[devilplate]

HDB can just say they will not be selling those oversupply for 3 years.

The problem with zero inventory is that it is almost impossible to do anything if the market get hot suddenly. And you tend to over correct when you scramble to increase the supply which will not hit until 3-5 years later.

I know there can be a problem with holding too much inventory but going from too much inventory to ZERO inventory is too drastic and will cause more problems.

The solution is to fine tune the way they estimate demand, reduce their inventory, reduce their supply lead time.

Unfortunately our minister solution is zero inventory.

i still support BTO system...but nid to fine tuned the system....increase BTO launches faster....increase AHG....i tink as time goes by, lead time can be reduced to 1.5-2yrs

Btw, current bto system may create some leftover supply too as it just nid 75% to proceed with the construction

by holding on unsold inventory and makes them not avail for sale may create political issues ? wat u guys tink?

[chiaberry]

haha, that is true.

Many years ago, good condos feature lots of ang-mohs but now bad condos in ulu locations feature lots of ang mohs. my condo in west coast is chuck full of ang mohs.

Many years ago, good condos features few PRC chinese. Now most CCR condos in D10 and D9 are owned by PRc chinese. They think my condo in west coast is not good enough for them. what a turn of fortune. Hope teddy doesn't mind more people peeing into the swimming pool and drains and air dry their laundry on the balcony in CCR properties.

Now ang-mohs have spread to HDB.

Rich PRC Chinese don't buy property to stay in or even to rent out. They buy a few/many properties and just let them stay empty as they don't need the money from the rent. This is what was told to me by friends in the industry.

[Regulators]

i am having second thoughts now

i just pluck mi casa as an example since regulator r looking at it...it doesnt constitute to a buy call

[chiaberry]

i still support BTO system...but nid to fine tuned the system....increase BTO launches faster....increase AHG....i tink as time goes by, lead time can be reduced to 1.5-2yrs

Btw, current bto system may create some leftover supply too as it just nid 75% to proceed with the construction

by holding on unsold inventory and makes them not avail for sale may create political issues ? wat u guys tink?

I think zero inventory is not the "correct" solution. I agree that a flexible system with fine tuning should be the way to go. Unsold inventory should be made avail for sale.

[chiaberry]

i am having second thoughts now

Don't let me put you off completely. Look into Bishan 8 and why it's price don't move that well despite such a great location (fairly central in Singapore, directly opp MRT and shopping mall and opp Raffles Institution). If you find out why, pls let us know so we can learn some lessons. Thx.

[devilplate]

Don't let me put you off completely. Look into Bishan 8 and why it's price don't move that well despite such a great location (fairly central in Singapore, directly opp MRT and shopping mall and opp Raffles Institution). If you find out why, pls let us know so we can learn some lessons. Thx.

to be fair: bishan 8 moves up from 2009 trough quite a fair bit oredi rite....2009 bottom px about 700-750psf...now got 2 units hit above 1kpsf
63 Bishan Street 21 #03-03
99 Yrs From 09/10/1996
$1072
980
$1050k
14 Mar 11

for a 15yo 99LH condo to hit 1.05mil 2bedder is quite remarkable.....3rd flr only somemore
i believe it may go up abit more when capland launch

[ysyap]

i still support BTO system...but nid to fine tuned the system....increase BTO launches faster....increase AHG....i tink as time goes by, lead time can be reduced to 1.5-2yrs

Btw, current bto system may create some leftover supply too as it just nid 75% to proceed with the construction

by holding on unsold inventory and makes them not avail for sale may create political issues ? wat u guys tink?

Reduce the take up percent to 50% and continue to sell during construction phase so chances of left over vacant units is higher which can then be sold to buyers once project is completed. So solve problem of over and under supply. Win win situation... though not a perfect solution... it might not exist.

[DaytonaSS]

how does BTO works ?

place order, put a deposits, 2yrs later take delivery ?

if mkt not hot after 2 yrs ...can still forgo deposit and give up HDB right ??

so whats so good about BTO ?

That's true, only lose 1 chance and ard 5% + stamp only. But pple buy hdb to stay, not speculate. If all proj are BTO n pple can only consume what they need, y will there be a situation where mkt is not "hot". Market no good stay in park? Only when there are hugh supply siting ard waiting for pple to buy will there be situations where pple change their plan because they feel market price will drop substantially.

This protects the value of HDB over long term, not subjecting it to big fluations in business cycles. I support active BTO, at reasonable discount from resale or high price with substantial discount for first time buyers.

[proud owner]

I think zero inventory is not the "correct" solution. I agree that a flexible system with fine tuning should be the way to go. Unsold inventory should be made avail for sale.

totally agree

when there is no threat or war... can dissolve SAF ???
when theres recession, cut ministers pay ？？

no right ?


so why cant have empty unsold HDBs ??

MBT just want to ALWAYS show profit lah ..

[proud owner]

That's true, only lose 1 chance and ard 5% + stamp only. But pple buy hdb to stay, not speculate. If all proj are BTO n pple can only consume what they need, y will there be a situation where mkt is not "hot". Market no good stay in park? Only when there are hugh supply siting ard waiting for pple to buy will there be situations where pple change their plan because they feel market price will drop substantially.

This protects the value of HDB over long term, not subjecting it to big fluations in business cycles. I support active BTO, at reasonable discount from resale or high price with substantial discount for first time buyers.

in 2yrs time .. if prices stagnate .. chances are private will also stagnate or dip ..

u think those who OTB ( order to build) will take delivery ? i think they will forgo HDB and buy private

[devilplate]

totally agree

when there is no threat or war... can dissolve SAF ???
when theres recession, cut ministers pay ？？

no right ?


so why cant have empty unsold HDBs ??

MBT just want to ALWAYS show profit lah ..

minister did suffer pay cut in 2008
http://www.salary.sg/2008/civil-serv...for-ministers/

however, now their pay higher den b4 the pay cut in 2008...haha...ops

[proud owner]

minister did suffer pay cut in 2008
http://www.salary.sg/2008/civil-serv...for-ministers/

however, now their pay higher den b4 the pay cut in 2008...haha...ops

average out still up right ??

[chiaberry]

to be fair: bishan 8 moves up from 2009 trough quite a fair bit oredi rite....2009 bottom px about 700-750psf...now got 2 units hit above 1kpsf
63 Bishan Street 21 #03-03
99 Yrs From 09/10/1996
$1072
980
$1050k
14 Mar 11

for a 15yo 99LH condo to hit 1.05mil 2bedder is quite remarkable.....3rd flr only somemore
i believe it may go up abit more when capland launch

hehe I think my friend bought at the initial launch. Prolly the prices v. high at the time (before they dropped).

Hmmm maybe Bishan 8 might be a better buy than Mi Casa? As you mentioned there is the Capland launch to look forward to. And location-wise Bishan tops CCK I should imagine. Need to consider the condition of the units being offered for sale though. Another LH condo with good location is Tanglin Regency. It has Tanglin Road address (district 10) and is right next to newly revamped Alexandra Park Connector with wetlands features. Makes for wonderful jogging or cycling along the waterside. Both of these available for renting out straight away. I am not sure what rent Bishan 8 can command but 980 sq ft 2 bedder in Tanglin Regency for ard 1.05 mill can command around 3.5K currently. Just offering some alternatives to Mi Casa that's all my 2

[DaytonaSS]

in 2yrs time .. if prices stagnate .. chances are private will also stagnate or dip ..

u think those who OTB ( order to build) will take delivery ? i think they will forgo HDB and buy private

I m assuming a BTO avg price 400k for 1000 sqft n 800k for private. If price coverage 30% I agree with u pple will do that . If BTO is selling at discount from resale already the choice is pretty clear isn't it. Last 10 year many down points, did we see a 20-30% dip in hdb prices? BTO tied to demand based housing need will ensure we don't experience Hugh huge flucations in basic public housing.

[sqmin3]

i still support BTO system...but nid to fine tuned the system....increase BTO launches faster....increase AHG....i tink as time goes by, lead time can be reduced to 1.5-2yrs

Btw, current bto system may create some leftover supply too as it just nid 75% to proceed with the construction

by holding on unsold inventory and makes them not avail for sale may create political issues ? wat u guys tink?

I agree with you on BTO system. It is better than HDB prediction, which generated a lot of empty flats and blocks in Jurong West and other new towns.

However, It is neccessary to allow some HDB leftover supply as a reservior (eg. 1-5% of total HDB units) to dampen the HDB price up and down dramatically. Meanwhile, It is good for the first buyers, who just get married. They can get a roof for their family immediately from market of either new flat or resale.

Fine tuning of BTO system is a must according to current supply depletion. Some of modifications have been implemented, such as shortening the development cycle, improvement of the drawing rules.

I think one of the important parameters need change. It is the 75% for construction. It may be reduced to 50% or lower.

[Lovelle]

hehe I think my friend bought at the initial launch. Prolly the prices v. high at the time (before they dropped).

Hmmm maybe Bishan 8 might be a better buy than Mi Casa? As you mentioned there is the Capland launch to look forward to. And location-wise Bishan tops CCK I should imagine. Need to consider the condition of the units being offered for sale though. Another LH condo with good location is Tanglin Regency. It has Tanglin Road address (district 10) and is right next to newly revamped Alexandra Park Connector with wetlands features. Makes for wonderful jogging or cycling along the waterside. Both of these available for renting out straight away. I am not sure what rent Bishan 8 can command but 980 sq ft 2 bedder in Tanglin Regency for ard 1.05 mill can command around 3.5K currently. Just offering some alternatives to Mi Casa that's all my 2

am pretty sure , ppl at bishan are w/drawing their unit for sale and wait for capland launch as well to gauge their prices.

[Regulators]

Bishan 8 is not exactly cheap at current prices. m casa is about 300 psf cheaper than b8 and will be 13 year age gap apart when mc tops. Both are near mrt and mall. Only problem now for mi casa is the difficulty in finding a good facing unit. Those facing the pool are asking for high premium. Don't mean to be a low baller, but I will only buy good facing units at the best possible price, not any lousy facing units thrown to the public at seemingly a discount.

am pretty sure , ppl at bishan are w/drawing their unit for sale and wait for capland launch as well to gauge their prices.

[chiaberry]

Bishan 8 is not exactly cheap at current prices. m casa is about 300 psf cheaper than b8 and will be 13 year age gap apart when mc tops. Both are near mrt and mall. Only problem now for mi casa is the difficulty in finding a good facing unit. Those facing the pool are asking for high premium. Don't mean to be a low baller, but I will only buy good facing units at the best possible price, not any lousy facing units thrown to the public at seemingly a discount.

Yep best facing units always disappear v. fast in the launches. I remember when I went to snoop around the show flat of H2O residences in Sengkang and the units with the reservoir facing views were all sold out. You might get lucky if you leave yr name with the agents and somebody backs out of the sale who had a pool facing unit.

[amk]

just a general comment of BTO and "0 reserve" etc.
not many years ago, when HDB had a huge list of empty flats, ppl *were* complaining abt *waste of resources*, and slapped HDB left and right.
today HDB got slapped again for having no reserve and everything BTO.
It's not easy to be politically correct and economically correct at the same time.

[Lovelle]

Yep best facing units always disappear v. fast in the launches. I remember when I went to snoop around the show flat of H2O residences in Sengkang and the units with the reservoir facing views were all sold out. You might get lucky if you leave yr name with the agents and somebody backs out of the sale who had a pool facing unit.

there are only a handful of premium units in a development. Depend on individual la, some ppl may not be too choosy. Good location, decent layout also ok to many ppl...

like The Sail, premium unit price high high, do they command higher rental ? i don't think so...

[Regulators]

I am usually apprehensive to get a borderline cheap unit with lousy facing. These days when people buy houses, the basic rules of buying a livable home (eg no mrt track in front, no noisy road in front, no west sun etc) seem to have gone out of the window. Buyers these days are so kiasu that in order not to miss the boat, any leftover units will do.

there are only a handful of premium units in a development. Depend on individual la, some ppl may not be too choosy. Good location, decent layout also ok to many ppl...

like The Sail, premium unit price high high, do they command higher rental ? i don't think so...

[chiaberry]

there are only a handful of premium units in a development. Depend on individual la, some ppl may not be too choosy. Good location, decent layout also ok to many ppl...

like The Sail, premium unit price high high, do they command higher rental ? i don't think so...

In my experience the premium price for premium unit doesn't necessarily translate into premium rental. That's provided your non-premium unit is not at a great disadvantage eg facing the main road etc.