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Thread: Landed homes closing the psf price gap

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    Default Landed homes closing the psf price gap



    Business Times - 24 Feb 2011


    Landed homes closing the psf price gap
    They still transact at a discount to non-landed homes, but gap is smaller
    By UMA SHANKARI (SINGAPORE) The price gap between non-landed property and landed property has narrowed in per square foot (psf) terms over the last two years, according to an analysis by a property firm.
    At the end of March 2009, terrace houses, semi-detached houses and detached houses transacted at discounts of 23 per cent, 36 per cent and 38 per cent respectively as compared to non-landed units in psf terms.
    By the end of 2010, the gaps had narrowed, although landed properties are still transacting at significant discounts compared to non-landed properties: discounts of 14 per cent, 30 per cent and 26 per cent respectively for terrace, semi-detached and detached houses.
    The Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) price index for landed homes climbed 30.8 per cent last year. The sub-index for detached houses, or bungalows, soared 37.6 per cent.
    By contrast, the index for non-landed private homes rose a relatively smaller 14 per cent last year, the government agency said last month.
    Property consultancy International Property Advisor, which pinpointed the trend of the narrowing price gaps using data from URA, said that landed home prices are climbing on the back of growing demand due to the demographic changes and lifestyle needs of the Generation X-ers (Singaporeans born in the 1960s and 1970s).
    'Based on the instructions we have been receiving from our clients, the demand for landed properties is strengthening,' said the firm's chief executive Ku Swee Yong.
    In addition, demand is also being boosted by new Singaporeans who are used to living in landed properties in their countries of birth. High net worth Malaysians, Indonesians and Chinese who become new citizens fall into this group.
    Echoed Savills Singapore's executive director for investment and prestige homes Steven Ming: 'Landed price gains are underpinned by growing affluence and demand against a limited availability of supply.'
    Savills, which tracks the prices of Good Class Bungalows (GCBs) as well as non-landed luxury and high-end private homes in Singapore using its own baskets of properties, noticed that GCB prices grew more sharply in 2009 and 2010.
    Prices of GCBs and other types of landed homes are now growing faster as they have typically been depressed compared to non-landed units, noted Mr Ming. He explained that they are starting from a 'lower base' and are therefore recording more rapid gains.
    Looking ahead, Mr Ming said that the price gap between landed and non-landed home prices can be expected to narrow further - as long as economic fundamentals remain intact to continue supporting demand for landed homes.
    But as with non-landed home prices, prices for landed properties are expected to rise at a more measured pace this year compared to last year, analysts said.
    Recent government measures to cool the property market - including further slashing the loan-to- value limit on housing loans to 60 per cent for buyers with outstanding housing loans - have dampened homebuyer sentiment and are expected to have some impact on the landed property market as well, they said.

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    Looking at the 3 categories of landed, semi-d are a sandwiched class. For smaller quantum value, Terrace which is also the entry level for those who wants to get landed. Detached - which applies to GCB as well are special lot, command premiun and moreover many have larger land area, so the lower psf. Semi-D, some even slightly bigger than Terrace or same size as Terrace even but psf stucked - also same as Detached category. One would thought that Semi D would be in between Terrace and Detached which is not the case... Interesting chart. Depend on how you read it, if you are bullish, u would think that Semi D is laggard. On the other hand, people may also regard Terrace as overpriced? I believe gap may get closer..to between 10-25%. still have room to gap up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by land118
    Looking at the 3 categories of landed, semi-d are a sandwiched class. For smaller quantum value, Terrace which is also the entry level for those who wants to get landed. Detached - which applies to GCB as well are special lot, command premiun and moreover many have larger land area, so the lower psf. Semi-D, some even slightly bigger than Terrace or same size as Terrace even but psf stucked - also same as Detached category. One would thought that Semi D would be in between Terrace and Detached which is not the case... Interesting chart. Depend on how you read it, if you are bullish, u would think that Semi D is laggard. On the other hand, people may also regard Terrace as overpriced? I believe gap may get closer..to between 10-25%. still have room to gap up.
    Land bullish me agree that there is still room to move up.

    From my personal experience, inter terraces make better investment tools as landed upgraders normally target these and buyer pool is thus bigger. A newly rebuilt 3.5 storey inter can fetch 3 - 5.5 mil in today's market. This is unthinkable just a year back. Even a run down single storey one cost at least 1.5 mil.

    For own stay, it should be entry level detached if one can afford it. Smaller detached land of 6000 sqft is just slightly bigger than some semi-D but offers much more privacy and exclusiveness.

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    Hey, do you guys think that it is possible that come one day, landed psf would even outperform non-landed psf? As more people see value in landed and as the supply is very limited in SG with growing population & affluence, this scenario could be plausible. Perhaps when the % of landed vs total pte ppty stock reaches 15% from current 27% within the next 5-10 yrs?

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    It has already happened in some of the areas.
    Quote Originally Posted by greenhorn
    Hey, do you guys think that it is possible that come one day, landed psf would even outperform non-landed psf? As more people see value in landed and as the supply is very limited in SG with growing population & affluence, this scenario could be plausible. Perhaps when the % of landed vs total pte ppty stock reaches 15% from current 27% within the next 5-10 yrs?

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    Quote Originally Posted by greenhorn
    Hey, do you guys think that it is possible that come one day, landed psf would even outperform non-landed psf? As more people see value in landed and as the supply is very limited in SG with growing population & affluence, this scenario could be plausible. Perhaps when the % of landed vs total pte ppty stock reaches 15% from current 27% within the next 5-10 yrs?
    For many landed, especially for terrace, the land psf has already out perform RCR non landed prices. Some are matching CCR non landed prices. The challenge is for the built in psf to match non landed psf prices.

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    Quote Originally Posted by greenhorn
    Hey, do you guys think that it is possible that come one day, landed psf would even outperform non-landed psf? As more people see value in landed and as the supply is very limited in SG with growing population & affluence, this scenario could be plausible. Perhaps when the % of landed vs total pte ppty stock reaches 15% from current 27% within the next 5-10 yrs?
    but with shrinking household members?

    one couple w/o kids wana stay in big landed meh? furthermore, kids dun stay with parents after marriage liao....

    however, the uber richies will still prefer GCBs or penthse but not those terrace hse....

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    but with shrinking household members?

    one couple w/o kids wana stay in big landed meh? furthermore, kids dun stay with parents after marriage liao....

    however, the uber richies will still prefer GCBs or penthse but not those terrace hse....
    That's my initial thought as well. After some groundwork, I find couples w/o kids buying into those smaller inter terrace and they will normally do a simple A&A to spruce the place up with a super big master, a study and sometimes an entertainment room. Suits their lifestyle perfectly.

    It basically gives them the flexibility to configure the house to their liking. Not many developers can offer this, maybe only those high end open plan projects.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bullman
    That's my initial thought as well. After some groundwork, I find couples w/o kids buying into those smaller inter terrace and they will normally do a simple A&A to spruce the place up with a super big master, a study and sometimes an entertainment room. Suits their lifestyle perfectly.

    It basically gives them the flexibility to configure the house to their liking. Not many developers can offer this, maybe only those high end open plan projects.
    oo..interesting

    anyway landed prices psf keep going up only means SG land is getting vy expensive....tats y developer r still bidding record high for even 99LH land?

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    but with shrinking household members?

    one couple w/o kids wana stay in big landed meh? furthermore, kids dun stay with parents after marriage liao....

    however, the uber richies will still prefer GCBs or penthse but not those terrace hse....
    It'll be interesting to study the profile of a typical buyer of landed properties. Think its different from non-landed buying crowd. Landed buyers have different needs/wants and thus their choice of homes notwithstanding family size. For some its need for space, for some its status/ego, for some its $$$, while for others its lifestyle choice, etc...

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    I am referring to FH land and not LH land. Not worth to invest in LH land but I must qualify that it is different from non-landed LH property.
    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    oo..interesting

    anyway landed prices psf keep going up only means SG land is getting vy expensive....tats y developer r still bidding record high for even 99LH land?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008
    I am referring to FH land and not LH land. Not worth to invest in LH land but I must qualify that it is different from non-landed LH property.
    i mean 99LH GLS for condos.....

    if landed psf keep rising....it just means SG land is getting more expensive....its a cycle? hehe

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    i mean 99LH GLS for condos.....

    if landed psf keep rising....it just means SG land is getting more expensive....its a cycle? hehe
    This is an interesting point to raise regarding the so called cyclical nature of real estate.

    Even after reading "timing the real estate market", I do not subscribe totally to the idea of timing the purchase for landed, especially so for FH. Its a totally different ball game from non-landed and landed LH.

    In the context of US, where land is plentiful, the distinction between landed and non-landed is minimal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bullman
    For many landed, especially for terrace, the land psf has already out perform RCR non landed prices. Some are matching CCR non landed prices. The challenge is for the built in psf to match non landed psf prices.
    Built in psf for landed will eventually match non landed built in psf. Why?

    Because we are comparing apple to apple => i.e. liveable space

    But for landed, because it comes with the bonus land which is your own (in the case of freehold), so there is still room for landed houses to rocket up.

    So for illustration, within the same district, a condo unit may be selling at $1500psf. A neaby landed house with a built in of 3000 sq ft could be selling for $4.5M at the same psf regardless of land size. (Land size could be 1500 sq ft for instance).

    So in terms of land psf, it is selling at $3000 psf. In terms of built in psf, it is selling at $1500 psf same as the condo unit.

    Currently, maybe the landed house is probably worth $3M only. So there is still room to grow to $4.5M!!!

    In a land scarce Singapore, this phenomenon will come true eventually.

    So only the top 10% rich Singaporeans can stay in landed houses next time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue
    Built in psf for landed will eventually match non landed built in psf. Why?

    Because we are comparing apple to apple => i.e. liveable space

    But for landed, because it comes with the bonus land which is your own (in the case of freehold), so there is still room for landed houses to rocket up.

    So for illustration, within the same district, a condo unit may be selling at $1500psf. A neaby landed house with a built in of 3000 sq ft could be selling for $4.5M at the same psf regardless of land size. (Land size could be 1500 sq ft for instance).

    So in terms of land psf, it is selling at $3000 psf. In terms of built in psf, it is selling at $1500 psf same as the condo unit.

    Currently, maybe the landed house is probably worth $3M only. So there is still room to grow to $4.5M!!!

    In a land scarce Singapore, this phenomenon will come true eventually.

    So only the top 10% rich Singaporeans can stay in landed houses next time.
    dot dot dot....

    land value still determined by plot ratio and location.....a gd gauge will be the enbloc prices (psf ppr) and use it as a comparison for ur actual Landed value(plus a percentage for the house sitting on the land)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue
    Built in psf for landed will eventually match non landed built in psf. Why?

    Because we are comparing apple to apple => i.e. liveable space

    But for landed, because it comes with the bonus land which is your own (in the case of freehold), so there is still room for landed houses to rocket up.

    So for illustration, within the same district, a condo unit may be selling at $1500psf. A neaby landed house with a built in of 3000 sq ft could be selling for $4.5M at the same psf regardless of land size. (Land size could be 1500 sq ft for instance).

    So in terms of land psf, it is selling at $3000 psf. In terms of built in psf, it is selling at $1500 psf same as the condo unit.

    Currently, maybe the landed house is probably worth $3M only. So there is still room to grow to $4.5M!!!

    In a land scarce Singapore, this phenomenon will come true eventually.

    So only the top 10% rich Singaporeans can stay in landed houses next time.
    Not to misunderstand my motivation. I am also quite optimistic on landed but to really compare apple to apple would mean that you would have to look at prices of ground floor condo units in developments with limited or no facilities.

    Landed houses may not have splendid views or full facilities to enjoy so there is a tradeoff. On the other hand, there are no maintenance charges and you do not have to tussle for parking space (may not be true for some houses without enough area for parking). Some houses even have their own pools.

    The ground floor units of condos are usually the cheapest in terms of psf price. So to be truly accurate in comparing apples, my opinion is that there is room for landed properties built-up psf to catch up with the lowest psf price achieved in boutique condos with little or no facilities in the same vicinity.

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    Since MM prices now so high and every new project price is edging up, most people now getting up to high prices..., agree for landed there is still room to move up, just that quantum for landed may be out of reach of many..., so that small landed..of 2000sqft land and below will be in greater demand. 2000sqft land can easily build 2.5 sty of 4k-4.5k sqft.

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    Quote Originally Posted by land118
    Since MM prices now so high and every new project price is edging up, most people now getting up to high prices..., agree for landed there is still room to move up, just that quantum for landed may be out of reach of many..., so that small landed..of 2000sqft land and below will be in greater demand. 2000sqft land can easily build 2.5 sty of 4k-4.5k sqft.
    2.5 sty can hit 4.5k sqft? My place a lot of people build 3.5 sty which is like a condo....

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    Quote Originally Posted by wind30
    2.5 sty can hit 4.5k sqft? My place a lot of people build 3.5 sty which is like a condo....
    Yes, possible if u say land is 2ksqft... Below article below..:



    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...53540,00.html?

    Published September 17, 2010

    Landed homes get new profile in pilot project

    New approach allows for more flexibility in how they are built

    By KALPANA RASHIWALA


    (SINGAPORE) The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) is conducting a pilot project of modified guidelines that will allow more creative designs for landed homes.

    The guidelines will apply to nine landed housing plots it will auction next month under Sembawang Greenvale Phase 3.

    The guidelines do away with some of the current 'micro controls' such as the attic profile, floor-to- floor height and basement protrusions. Instead, it will merely control the envelop or the overall bulk of the house.

    One fallout though is that the overall height limit of a three-storey house under the new approach is lower than under the old guidelines.

    Singapore's planning authority said the new approach will give architects greater freedom to propose a variety of layouts and designs as long as the proposal is generally compatible with surrounding three-storey houses. For instance, one can propose more lofty spaces in certain parts of the house such as the living room and master bedroom in front, and have more compact spaces elsewhere - say, the study room or bedroom at the rear.

    W Architects managing director Mok Wei Wei welcomed the new approach: 'It takes care of the big picture by controlling the envelop; in other words, the building shouldn't be bigger than what it should be. But within that, it relaxes some of the earlier controls like the maximum storey height. Under existing guidelines, the first storey has a maximum height of 4.5 metres, and the second and third storeys, 3.6 metres each.

    'But now this maximum storey height control is removed. So it means you have a freer volumetric play of the space, while still allowing you to achieve the same overall built-up area as before. That's the greatest advantage.'

    There is still a control of minimum storey height, so the minimum habitable standard is not sacrificed, he noted.

    For a landed housing estate like Sembawang Greenvale, under the existing rules, one could stretch the total building height upto 17.7 metres for a three-storey house with an attic and a basement.

    But under the envelop control approach - with an overall height of 15.5 metres, inclusive of the top 3.5 metres set back from the front and rear building facade - one can design a four-storey building and still have an attic and basement for the part of the house that one does not mind being compacted, Mr Mok says.

    The 15.5-metre height limit is well calibrated to ensure excessive stories are not inserted within the new envelop that could lead to, for instance, a six-storey house. The proposed envelop height limit - which is based on dimensions of a typical three-storey house, says URA - will help address concerns that a house could resemble a flat if a 17.7-metre height limit were to be allowed.

    The envelop control approach also does away with the existing control that the basement may protrude only upto one metre above the ground. The new approach allows a basement that is less deep and hence protrudes more above ground, which should result in cost savings for the owner.

    URA's spokeswoman said that if the pilot project at Sembawang Greenvale is successful, the authority may consider extending the envelop control guidelines to landed housing developments in other locations or types of works such as additions and alterations of existing landed property.

    The envelop control approach was the result of feedback during URA's Focus Group consultation exercise on landed housing in late 2007.

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    Quote Originally Posted by proper-t
    Not to misunderstand my motivation. I am also quite optimistic on landed but to really compare apple to apple would mean that you would have to look at prices of ground floor condo units in developments with limited or no facilities.

    Landed houses may not have splendid views or full facilities to enjoy so there is a tradeoff. On the other hand, there are no maintenance charges and you do not have to tussle for parking space (may not be true for some houses without enough area for parking). Some houses even have their own pools.

    The ground floor units of condos are usually the cheapest in terms of psf price. So to be truly accurate in comparing apples, my opinion is that there is room for landed properties built-up psf to catch up with the lowest psf price achieved in boutique condos with little or no facilities in the same vicinity.
    In today's market, even the lowest psf in boutique condos is doing above $1000 psf on the average.

    So a landed with built in, say 3500 sqft, is worth $3.5M in due course

    To the majority Singaporeans with household income less than $10K per month, this would seem way out of reach. But for those middle aged professionals / dinks (dual income no kids) with more than $20K monthly household income, this is still affordable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    dot dot dot....

    land value still determined by plot ratio and location.....a gd gauge will be the enbloc prices (psf ppr) and use it as a comparison for ur actual Landed value(plus a percentage for the house sitting on the land)
    Put it simply, if a developer enblocs your landed, say your landed is 1500 sqft land, and the height restriction for the area is 5 storeys, the developer can actually build 4 storeys or 4 units of 1200 sqft (3 bedders) or 8 units of 600 sqft (1 bedder), while ground floor is for parking.

    The selling price of each unit say is $1200 psf for 3 bedders and $1500 psf for 1 bedder => Total revenue is $5.76M for 3 bedders or $7.2M for 1 bedder.

    So mickey mouse 1 bedder fetches a higher revenue, and obviously he would choose it.

    Working backwards and using $7.2M revenue, and supposingly his profit margin is 20%, his max allowable cost would be $5.76M @ 80%.

    Rebuilding the 1 bedders would cost him $1.5M @ $300psf x 8 units x 600sqft.

    So the max he would pay for your landed is $4.26M, or maybe less a bit more for government fees, stamp duty and etc => $4M.

    Still it is a very good price for a landed owner to sell his 1500 sqft land for $4M which shows the potential upside of the landed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue
    Put it simply, if a developer enblocs your landed, say your landed is 1500 sqft land, and the height restriction for the area is 5 storeys, the developer can actually build 4 storeys or 4 units of 1200 sqft (3 bedders) or 8 units of 600 sqft (1 bedder), while ground floor is for parking.

    The selling price of each unit say is $1200 psf for 3 bedders and $1500 psf for 1 bedder => Total revenue is $5.76M for 3 bedders or $7.2M for 1 bedder.

    So mickey mouse 1 bedder fetches a higher revenue, and obviously he would choose it.

    Working backwards and using $7.2M revenue, and supposingly his profit margin is 20%, his max allowable cost would be $5.76M @ 80%.

    Rebuilding the 1 bedders would cost him $1.5M @ $300psf x 8 units x 600sqft.

    So the max he would pay for your landed is $4.26M, or maybe less a bit more for government fees, stamp duty and etc => $4M.

    Still it is a very good price for a landed owner to sell his 1500 sqft land for $4M which shows the potential upside of the landed.
    reminds me of sm1 who say avoid landed in telok kurau and go for true blue landed....and another one says got TK landed got enbloc potential....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue
    Built in psf for landed will eventually match non landed built in psf. Why?

    Because we are comparing apple to apple => i.e. liveable space

    But for landed, because it comes with the bonus land which is your own (in the case of freehold), so there is still room for landed houses to rocket up.

    So for illustration, within the same district, a condo unit may be selling at $1500psf. A neaby landed house with a built in of 3000 sq ft could be selling for $4.5M at the same psf regardless of land size. (Land size could be 1500 sq ft for instance).

    So in terms of land psf, it is selling at $3000 psf. In terms of built in psf, it is selling at $1500 psf same as the condo unit.

    Currently, maybe the landed house is probably worth $3M only. So there is still room to grow to $4.5M!!!

    .
    Blue
    I like you
    If that ever happens in the next 2 years, i would be very thankful for analysis like this

    BTW, I also think landed is still underprice.... especially for land that are quoted less than liveable space.
    Ie plot ratio 1.4?? Land price 900 psf vs nearby condo free hold 1800psf
    Potential upside 100% + Plot Ratio upside 40% = 140 %???

    So the real gem are those that that land price lesser than condo liveable space

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue
    Put it simply, if a developer enblocs your landed, say your landed is 1500 sqft land, and the height restriction for the area is 5 storeys, the developer can actually build 4 storeys or 4 units of 1200 sqft (3 bedders) or 8 units of 600 sqft (1 bedder), while ground floor is for parking.

    .
    By the way height restriction of 5 storeys = plot ratio of 1.4
    For 1500psf , at most you can build 1500*1.4*1.1 = 2310

    Impossible for 4800 psf

    Otherwise, every interterrace could be enbloc...
    For those landed houses that are build 3 + 1 floor, the rooftop psf does not include in the calculation (heard that from some developer) , thus the build in can be inflated as such.

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    reminds me of sm1 who say avoid landed in telok kurau and go for true blue landed....and another one says got TK landed got enbloc potential....

    I am thinking, telok kurau there has a plot ratio of 1.4 right?

    I am not sure how this works but 1.4 seems to be a very low number. It seems to be worse than normal 3 storey mixed landed. I mean for 3 storey mixed landed, I can built 3 storey + attic which probably has much more built-in area than 1.4 plot ratio can.

    Am I missing something here?

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    Quote Originally Posted by wind30
    I am thinking, telok kurau there has a plot ratio of 1.4 right?

    I am not sure how this works but 1.4 seems to be a very low number. It seems to be worse than normal 3 storey mixed landed. I mean for 3 storey mixed landed, I can built 3 storey + attic which probably has much more built-in area than 1.4 plot ratio can.

    Am I missing something here?
    I think if you are buiding a house , you could build more than 1.4 as roof attic space is exempted from the plot ratio. Thus you still see 3 plus 1 floor houses in such areas. By the way build in an build up are different...

    The plot ratio is more for potential spaces if you build a condo instead.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Duku
    By the way height restriction of 5 storeys = plot ratio of 1.4
    For 1500psf , at most you can build 1500*1.4*1.1 = 2310

    Impossible for 4800 psf

    Otherwise, every interterrace could be enbloc...
    For those landed houses that are build 3 + 1 floor, the rooftop psf does not include in the calculation (heard that from some developer) , thus the build in can be inflated as such.
    Actually, I oso dunno how the max built-in area is being calculated. For mine, the built-in sqft is significantly higher than just land size x plot ratio. Perhaps the developer paid additional development charge, or perhaps some of the areas like voids, unsheltered car porch, yard, roof terrace, walkways not taken into consideration.

    Aiyo, even for condos, the built in is also inflated. Say the unit is 1200psf but this includes voids, yards, walls, bay windows, patios, planter boxes & open terraces.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Duku
    Blue
    I like you
    If that ever happens in the next 2 years, i would be very thankful for analysis like this

    BTW, I also think landed is still underprice.... especially for land that are quoted less than liveable space.
    Ie plot ratio 1.4?? Land price 900 psf vs nearby condo free hold 1800psf
    Potential upside 100% + Plot Ratio upside 40% = 140 %???

    So the real gem are those that that land price lesser than condo liveable space
    Whether you like me or not, it doesnt matter. Most impt is you like your current landed, and how the price will appreciate in the near future.

    Of course, the other thing is as your house ages, the market value should also discounted. This goes the same for condo. Worst is those 99 yrs leaseholds. Yet, the freehold land value will always appreciate over time.

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    This one good buy for the low land psf!

    http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/2392202

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    looks like 72 Jalan Gelenggang.

    only drawbacks are the house is west facing and there is a hump in front of the house (noise from brake jamming and subsequent acceleration).

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue
    This one good buy for the low land psf!

    http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/2392202

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