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Thread: 8,430 new private homes set to be completed in 2011

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    Default 8,430 new private homes set to be completed in 2011

    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...31140,00.html?

    Published January 29, 2011

    8,430 new private homes set to be completed in 2011

    URA data also shows nearly half of them will be in the core central region

    By UMA SHANKARI


    CLOSE to half of the estimated 8,430 new private homes that are slated to be completed in 2011 will be in the upmarket core central region, according to fresh data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday.

    The government agency has also bumped up its estimate for the projected supply of private homes due to be completed this year by 25 per cent from three months ago. In October 2010, URA estimated that 6,766 new private homes will be completed in 2011.

    Sources told BT that URA has been surveying developers more closely over the last few months in a bid to compile more accurate pipeline supply figures. The agency computes the estimated supply of private housing units in the pipeline through a quarterly survey of developers.

    In response to a query from BT, URA said it will continue to work closely with developers to ensure that they submit up-to-date estimations of the expected completion dates of their projects.

    'URA's survey of the developers' completion (for 2011) is only starting to increase. The increase from Q3 2010's forecast for 2011 completions to Q4 2010's forecast is a significant 25 per cent. Over the next few quarters, we expect to see further upward revisions,' said Ku Swee Yong, chief executive of real estate firm International Property Advisor.

    Looking at the latest completion estimates, analysts once again warned that home-buyers need to brace themselves for a very large supply of private residential units due to be completed each year from 2011 to 2015.

    URA currently estimates that 8,116 units will be completed in 2012; 17,111 units in 2013; 17,421 units in 2014; and 13,453 units in 2015.

    In fact, 2010's number of newly completed private homes, which stands at around 10,400 units, is already higher than the historical average annual increase in housing supply of around 6,400 private units over the last decade, Mr Ku pointed out. For 2011, a total of 3,874 homes will be added to the housing supply in the core central region, which includes the prime districts 9, 10 and 11, Marina Bay and Sentosa Cove. This will make up 46 per cent of the islandwide housing supply of 8,430 new private homes.

    Another 2,265 private homes will be completed in the rest of central region, while in the outside central region, 2,291 units will be completed this year.

    URA also said that as at the end of Q4 2010, there was a total supply of 65,699 uncompleted units of private housing from projects in the pipeline. Of these, 32,776 units were still unsold.


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    URA currently estimates that 8,116 units will be completed in 2012; 17,111 units in 2013; 17,421 units in 2014; and 13,453 units in 2015.

    In fact, 2010's number of newly completed private homes, which stands at around 10,400 units, is already higher than the historical average annual increase in housing supply of around 6,400 private units over the last decade...



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    Quote Originally Posted by TKT
    URA currently estimates that 8,116 units will be completed in 2012; 17,111 units in 2013; 17,421 units in 2014; and 13,453 units in 2015.

    In fact, 2010's number of newly completed private homes, which stands at around 10,400 units, is already higher than the historical average annual increase in housing supply of around 6,400 private units over the last decade...


    The numbers have to be pushed forward by 0.5-1 year as developers usually completes their projects slightly earlier. Some already started demolishing the existing buildings even before launching the projects. The 2015 figures are less certain because I think the projects may not even be launched yet and developers can delay them further if market is not good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mr funny
    Sources told BT that URA has been surveying developers more closely over the last few months in a bid to compile more accurate pipeline supply figures.
    It's about time!

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    Let's look at some facts.

    1. We are underestimating the impact of all the enbloc /collective sales and displacements. According to DTZ report, there were 34 sales in 2010 totalling S$1.5bn. This does no take into account the number which have already or are about to take place in 2011. Assuming there are on average fifty units per en-bloc deal, you have to look at an average of 1,700 displacements which will either go into purchasing a new ppty or into rental mkt.

    2. Next, from the statistics dept, the increase in population is shown as below
    Date Total Population('000) Singapore Residents('000)


    2009 4,987.6 3,733.9
    2010 5,076.7 3,771.7
    (Census)


    For 2010 alone, the number of SG residents increased by 37.8K. If this is repeated in 2011, what is the paltry increase in 8,400 units?

    Its not just about liquidity driving the market but when you have super cash rich displacements from en-bloc sales and SG residents increasing every year, something has got to give.
    Last edited by proper-t; 31-01-11 at 09:13.

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    Quote Originally Posted by proper-t

    Its not just about liquidity driving the market but when you have super cash rich displacements from en-bloc sales and SG residents increasing every year, something has got to give.
    Er, I think something gave liao. Just look at the stats from 2009-Now. We are probably looking at a period of consolidation either from market forces or from the sheer will of our government to break the current momentum.

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    I guess it depends on the immigration policies going forward. But the TOP party is getting near... look at the no. of completions in various districts. CCR which is only 10% of the land area has like 45+% of the completions - extremely unbalanced. Imagine how cluttered, built up and crowded it shall be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by avo7007
    Er, I think something gave liao. Just look at the stats from 2009-Now. We are probably looking at a period of consolidation either from market forces or from the sheer will of our government to break the current momentum.

    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    I guess it depends on the immigration policies going forward. But the TOP party is getting near... look at the no. of completions in various districts. CCR which is only 10% of the land area has like 45+% of the completions - extremely unbalanced. Imagine how cluttered, built up and crowded it shall be.
    Immigration is a sensitive topic but one that I think SG cannot do without if we want to tout ourselves as a 'regional hub', be it financial, high-tech, biomedical and now IR. With fresh immigration comes fresh capital inflows.

    You may think that we are going into a period of consolidation from all the 'news' and 'reports' but that may just be making sure you only 'hear the good stuff'. The fact is that we cannot do without immigration. It will continue to be downplayed but the ramifications will be seen in our housing mkt and infrstructure.

    Also do not underestimate the en-bloc displacement effect. Just in Jan 2011 alone, I am already seeing an en-bloc deal every other day. Displacees armed with a large sum of cash will prove to be an unanticipated force.

    People will tend to congregate into popular areas. The good thing about SG is that it is small and commuting from one end to another is not such a harrowing proposition. However, there will also be 'sweet spots', so overbuilding and congeston is inevitable. That's where long-sighted town planning has to come in.
    Last edited by proper-t; 31-01-11 at 10:18.

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    Quote Originally Posted by proper-t
    Let's look at some facts.

    1. We are underestimating the impact of all the enbloc /collective sales and displacements. According to DTZ report, there were 34 sales in 2010 totalling S$1.5bn. This does no take into account the number which have already or are about to take place in 2011. Assuming there are on average fifty units per en-bloc deal, you have to look at an average of 1,700 displacements which will either go into purchasing a new ppty or into rental mkt.

    2. Next, from the statistics dept, the increase in population is shown as below
    Date Total Population('000) Singapore Residents('000)


    2009 4,987.6 3,733.9
    2010 5,076.7 3,771.7
    (Census)


    For 2010 alone, the number of SG residents increased by 37.8K. If this is repeated in 2011, what is the paltry increase in 8,400 units?


    Its not just about liquidity driving the market but when you have super cash rich displacements from en-bloc sales and SG residents increasing every year, something has got to give.
    first of all ... alot of singaporeans have more than 1 prop

    if enbloc they can move to the other prop .. no need to buy / rent ...

    also once enbloc ... many will straight away hit another unit ...

    so i really doubt the coming TOP's can be absorbed

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    first of all ... alot of singaporeans have more than 1 prop

    if enbloc they can move to the other prop .. no need to buy / rent ...

    also once enbloc ... many will straight away hit another unit ...

    so i really doubt the coming TOP's can be absorbed
    So what are they going to do with all the spare cash? FD with measly returns? If I get $2 or $3mil, what's a $600K MM apt?.

    Secondly, en-bloc is a lengthy process with uncertainties. A wise displacee may not want to commit on a new unit until the money is in the bank.

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    Quote Originally Posted by proper-t
    Let's look at some facts.

    1. We are underestimating the impact of all the enbloc /collective sales and displacements. According to DTZ report, there were 34 sales in 2010 totalling S$1.5bn. This does no take into account the number which have already or are about to take place in 2011. Assuming there are on average fifty units per en-bloc deal, you have to look at an average of 1,700 displacements which will either go into purchasing a new ppty or into rental mkt.

    2. Next, from the statistics dept, the increase in population is shown as below
    Date Total Population('000) Singapore Residents('000)

    2009 4,987.6 3,733.9
    2010 5,076.7 3,771.7
    (Census)


    For 2010 alone, the number of SG residents increased by 37.8K. If this is repeated in 2011, what is the paltry increase in 8,400 units?


    Its not just about liquidity driving the market but when you have super cash rich displacements from en-bloc sales and SG residents increasing every year, something has got to give.
    Assume each unit has 3 family members, then 37.8/3 = 12.6 k new units needed, but these comprises private and HDB. Because only about 20% stay in private (20% of 12.6k units = 2.5k units) , then private units are over-supplied (8.4k supply versus 2.5k demand), at least for the SG residents.

    The rest of the private unit demand has to come from immigrants. Crunching more immigration numbers assuming steady-state, you will realise that there is a real over-supply of private units in 2H 2012 onwards.

    Many people who are buying mass market condos now e.g. at Lakeside, Bedok and Sembawang are HDB upgraders and they will rent their HDB in a few years' time to support their purchase. This means that the mass market condo demand we are seeing now is not really demand for more space but rather an upgrading in life-style, which is only sustainable if we have enough immigrants to rent their HDBs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by proper-t
    So what are they going to do with all the spare cash? FD with measly returns? If I get $2 or $3mil, what's a $600K MM apt?.

    Secondly, en-bloc is a lengthy process with uncertainties. A wise displacee may not want to commit on a new unit until the money is in the bank.

    thats what i am trying to say ...

    those from enbloced projects would have no problem finding alternative housing ... they need not buy NOW or RENT NOW as they probably already have another unit .. or would have bought when the enbloc took place ...

    so those upcoming TOPs wil have problem finding renters ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    Many people who are buying mass market condos now e.g. at Lakeside, Bedok and Sembawang are HDB upgraders and they will rent their HDB in a few years' time to support their purchase.
    I think this particular HDB post MOP private pty ownership policy will be reviewed in the future with hugh implication for the market. After the election of course....

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    Quote Originally Posted by avo7007
    I think this particular HDB post MOP private pty ownership policy will be reviewed in the future with hugh implication for the market. After the election of course....
    This will kill a lot of (vocal) HDB upgraders and release a large number of re-sale HDBs into the market when it is needed least in the next 1-3 years. Highly unlikely measure...

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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    Assume each unit has 3 family members, then 37.8/3 = 12.6 k new units needed, but these comprises private and HDB. Because only about 20% stay in private (20% of 12.6k units = 2.5k units) , then private units are over-supplied (8.4k supply versus 2.5k demand), at least for the SG residents.

    The rest of the private unit demand has to come from immigrants. Crunching more immigration numbers assuming steady-state, you will realise that there is a real over-supply of private units in 2H 2012 onwards.

    Many people who are buying mass market condos now e.g. at Lakeside, Bedok and Sembawang are HDB upgraders and they will rent their HDB in a few years' time to support their purchase. This means that the mass market condo demand we are seeing now is not really demand for more space but rather an upgrading in life-style, which is only sustainable if we have enough immigrants to rent their HDBs.
    If you are talking about fresh inflows renting HDB etc, then you will have to look at total population growth which is 89.1K. Hotel rooms will probably not count as transient population such as tourists are excluded. NOTE that the population count only includes non-residents who stay for 1 yr or more. For non-residents which are here for 6-9 mths, they are NOT included in the count and there may be a much higher number availabl to rent yr HDB or apt for the short term stay.

    According to SG statistics definition :
    Census Coverage
    All Singapore residents with valid local addresses are included in the Census population count. Non-resident population with valid passes/permits and stay in Singapore for 1 year or more are also included in the count. Transient population such as tourists are excluded.
    Last edited by proper-t; 31-01-11 at 10:54.

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    thats what i am trying to say ...

    those from enbloced projects would have no problem finding alternative housing ... they need not buy NOW or RENT NOW as they probably already have another unit .. or would have bought when the enbloc took place ...

    so those upcoming TOPs wil have problem finding renters ...
    That is why I brought in the statistic numbers and population growth to support take-up rate.

    If you had $3mil in the bank and had a choice of putting $600K in a S$ FD or buy a completed just TOPed MM which has just been rented out @ $1.5K a mth for 2 years, which would you choose?

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    Quote Originally Posted by proper-t
    That is why I brought in the statistic numbers and population growth to support take-up rate.

    If you had $3mil in the bank and had a choice of putting $600K in a S$ FD or buy a completed just TOPed MM which has just been rented out @ $1.5K a mth for 2 years, which would you choose?
    i would buy prop ... measures or not

    but i wont buy MM to begin with

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    i would buy prop ... measures or not

    but i wont buy MM to begin with
    haha... gd one ! So would I. but I just used the MM scenario due to its affordability factor.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hyenergix
    This will kill a lot of (vocal) HDB upgraders and release a large number of re-sale HDBs into the market when it is needed least in the next 1-3 years. Highly unlikely measure...
    I am not sure it's unlikely, but agreed that this is a very bitter pill. But if you are the government looking at a trend whereby HDB hoarding is significant enough to distort supply/demand dynamics you might be forced to move on the issue.....

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    You want hard numbers, here they are :

    Total population (SG residents and NR who stay >1 yr) = 5.077m

    Average no. per household = 3.5

    Average no. of households : 1.45mil

    Total no. of pte properties (landed + condo) as at Q3 2010= 256.5K

    Total no. of HDB flats-estimate :
    Approximately 1,038,473 flats
    As of 2008, the total number of flats since HDB’s inception in 1960 was already 990,573 flats. Singapore’s Housing and Development Board (HDB) consequently built more flats to accommodate the rising demand for the years 2009 until 2011. By the end of 2011, HDB projects that it would have built 50,000 more flats in different states. As of now, more or less 47,900 flats have been launched by HDB.

    Calculations
    Total no. of households of 1450K

    Less : Total units available for housing = 1039K + 257K = 1296K

    Nett deficit = 154K households (stay where ?????)

    TOTAL no. of new supply coming on-stream for pte properties UPTO 2015 = 65K

    There is still a 154K-65K = 89K deficit (met by HDB???) and that is assuming ZERO population growth from 2011 to 2015.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    I guess it depends on the immigration policies going forward. But the TOP party is getting near... look at the no. of completions in various districts. CCR which is only 10% of the land area has like 45+% of the completions - extremely unbalanced. Imagine how cluttered, built up and crowded it shall be.
    and there are still many unsold units in CCR...with the surplus, buyers have plenty (maybe too many) of choices...

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    but if your calculation is correct, where are these pple now? all homeless?


    Quote Originally Posted by proper-t
    You want hard numbers, here they are :

    Total population (SG residents and NR who stay >1 yr) = 5.077m

    Average no. per household = 3.5

    Average no. of households : 1.45mil

    Total no. of pte properties (landed + condo) as at Q3 2010= 256.5K

    Total no. of HDB flats-estimate :
    Approximately 1,038,473 flats
    As of 2008, the total number of flats since HDB’s inception in 1960 was already 990,573 flats. Singapore’s Housing and Development Board (HDB) consequently built more flats to accommodate the rising demand for the years 2009 until 2011. By the end of 2011, HDB projects that it would have built 50,000 more flats in different states. As of now, more or less 47,900 flats have been launched by HDB.

    Calculations
    Total no. of households of 1450K

    Less : Total units available for housing = 1039K + 257K = 1296K

    Nett deficit = 154K households (stay where ?????)

    TOTAL no. of new supply coming on-stream for pte properties UPTO 2015 = 65K

    There is still a 154K-65K = 89K deficit (met by HDB???) and that is assuming ZERO population growth from 2011 to 2015.

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    If I have 2 or 3 million, I am not dumb. So i won't buy MM. I will probably look further than 1 year of rental.



    Quote Originally Posted by proper-t
    So what are they going to do with all the spare cash? FD with measly returns? If I get $2 or $3mil, what's a $600K MM apt?.

    Secondly, en-bloc is a lengthy process with uncertainties. A wise displacee may not want to commit on a new unit until the money is in the bank.

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    Don't see eye to eye with you except on this. MM are total craps. Waste of time, waste of $, waste of land. Especially those below 400 sf dog holes.




    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    i would buy prop ... measures or not

    but i wont buy MM to begin with

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    but if your calculation is correct, where are these pple now? all homeless?
    Gd question....Worker dorms, service apartments, hostels etc but even so, I don't know whether all these have capacity for 154K households. Most foreign workers are packed into one small room or apt so perhaps this may account for the deficit. If you look at my assumptions, its 3.5pax per household which means 539K pax.

    Scary number huh?

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    Quote Originally Posted by proper-t
    You want hard numbers, here they are :

    There is still a 154K-65K = 89K deficit (met by HDB???) and that is assuming ZERO population growth from 2011 to 2015.
    You need to account for domestic helpers staying within household, and foreign workers living in domitories, students in hostels....etc. Their numbers are not small......

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    my guess is there is a mismatch somewhere. it is OCR which needs massive completions currently but that will only happen from 2012 to 2015. there are massive completions now in CCR but few who need housing can afford it.

    however, i also think that because the numbers are so big, a slight 2 to 3% error in any of the numbers causes a huge swing in the no. of houses required or oversupplied.

    Quote Originally Posted by proper-t
    Gd question....Worker dorms, service apartments, hostels etc but even so, I don't know whether all these have capacity for 154K households. If you look at my assumptions, its 3.5pax per household which means 539K pax.

    Scary number huh?

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    Quote Originally Posted by thomastansb
    If I have 2 or 3 million, I am not dumb. So i won't buy MM. I will probably look further than 1 year of rental.
    I have same thinking as you. I was using the MM as a hypothetical example as its the most 'affordable' in terms of absolute quantum.

    I was also talking in the context of a multiple property owning individual (as pointed out by PO) who has recently come into a pile of money from a successful en-bloc. Once your property portfolio dimishes, the 'itch' to to replenish is high when coupled with the lack of good alternative investments with a reasonable return.

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    yup. a total of 150k would already be a 3% difference in a 5m population. i think the total number of pple who do not stay in hdb or private ppties is larger than this.

    Quote Originally Posted by avo7007
    You need to account for domestic helpers staying within household, and foreign workers living in domitories, students in hostels....etc. Their numbers are not small......

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    Quote Originally Posted by avo7007
    You need to account for domestic helpers staying within household, and foreign workers living in domitories, students in hostels....etc. Their numbers are not small......
    For domestic maids, it would already have been taken into account during the census study and included in the average household number. If they are staying with the household, it means they also occupying HDB or pte property units. The exceptions would be the non-stay in maids.

    Definitely, foreign workers and students would fall into the 154K households but that amounts to about 539K people !!!!

    My assumption is no population increase. If our population continues to grow at 89K pax per year, where will we house the increase?

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