Equities is definitely a better market for short to medium term players. Property market good only for LONG term players.
Newbie
Equities is definitely a better market for short to medium term players. Property market good only for LONG term players.
Newbie
Know what you mean, but from my feeling, this time cooling measure will majorly affect HDB or OCR market.Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
Normally CCR market prices are driven high by foreing money, now especially from China, but for Chinese buyers, even their mainland China or HK also got afftected with legal measures, so this singapore measure is not so strong factor for them, unless Capital gain tax.
Junior
Every investor will consider the transaction costs, liquidity, optionality and flexibility of his investments. Even if I intend to invest in something for 4 years, I still like to have the option to sell it within say 3 years without much penalty if anything happens. In short, it becomes a less attractive asset class with lots of restrictions and penalties. These measure will have impact. Let's face it and not live in denial. And I think these are good measures - Singapore property market is dominated by investors which is not healthy. At the end of the day, property is meant to be lived in and enjoyed
Newbie
How coincidence!.... i remember their Viva Vista was launch juz before Aug 2010 measures... their launch agents surely have to put in double efforts
Junior
errr... the measures last year ... prices didn't fall leh... so don't be so surePrices will fall. That's a no brainer. The question to ask is by how much in the coming months. 20%, 30%?
Newbie
first round of measures...again there were predictions that prices will drop....prices went up. Second round of measures....again there were predictions that prices will drop....prices creeped up. What's the difference for this round of measures? Prices will still go up...or a short knee jerk stablisation of prices...but prices will still creep up albeit at a much slower pace.
Newbie
ya lor totally agree
I sell Cheese Pie
This is the 4th round. Sure to have impact in this latest round. Else the govt will just keep on shelling the property market.
Sure to dampen even the most optimistic property buyer this time round
Junior
fair enough... agreed that prices going up too quickly is unhealthy, not good for the property market in the long run... Though not against property investors, but flippers...Every investor will consider the transaction costs, liquidity, optionality and flexibility of his investments. Even if I intend to invest in something for 4 years, I still like to have the option to sell it within say 3 years without much penalty if anything happens. In short, it becomes a less attractive asset class with lots of restrictions and penalties. These measure will have impact. Let's face it and not live in denial. And I think these are good measures - Singapore property market is dominated by investors which is not healthy. At the end of the day, property is meant to be lived in and enjoyed
Senior
i think the latest measures aimed at people who own more than one property. As for foreigners, many can afford to pay for property in full so i do not think it is an issue for them
Global recession is coming....
Think your brain cannot analyze well and you need the analysts (which you don't trust and hence cannot see the light), so let me make it simple for you to see:
- CCR 6 small districts, small piece of land. By virtue of it being small, what is left is that 10,000 units and no more supply (unless you enbloc those old properties). That is it!
- CR 20 big districts, don't know how many selling now but Govt can still has sufficient land to sell to build another 2,000,000 units! Wow! Govt sure has a lot of gun-power if they want to shoot the price down by release all the land at the same time? Can they do this for CCR? Nah! (because they have very little supply in CCR!). If CCR can drop like that then OCR would have fallen off the cliff!
Junior
SSD is 100x worse than capital gains tax. Capital gains tax is only imposed if you make profits and it is a % of the PROFITS. SSD hits the ENTIRE INVESTMENT.
With the leverage factor reduced, prices will converge even more. Remember a person who puts up 100k more can buy a 500k (5x) more expensive condo with 80% leverage. In short 100k creates 500k asset for a person to play with so-to-speak. Now with the LTV reduced to 60%, the 100k only brings this guy additional 250k asset. It's a different ball game. The incentive to leverage to maximise return is significantly reduced.
In short, a person prepared to invest 100k more used to cause a 500k price divergence (80% LTV). Now its only 250k divergence.
I don't want to predict the OCR or the CCR - both may fall. But I think the highest hit are those (i) mainly investors/specuvestors (ii) quantum between 1.5 - 2.5 million (iii) no real growth story other than "china men coming to town" because Chinamen got other option.
Last edited by Wild Falcon; 13-01-11 at 22:01.
Senior
prices how to fall? en bloc prices and GLS all record high so how property prices can come down? MBT really knn, if he don't want developers to sell property high, why the hell would he even allow them to en bloc or buy land from govt to develop? If developers sell too high and buyers can't afford, developers would have common sense to adjust prices, don't need govt to teach them, right?
Newbie
In my opinion, hot money will still come in but into stock market which is more scary then ppty because of the time need to dispose is fairly fast compare to ppty. I dont think the govt or any govt is capable to stop any of the $ to flow in but seems like Sg govt is trying to gain from the whole scenario.
1st sell as many land as possible during peak to developer.(MAKE $)
2nd Sell and build more HDB at price close to private (MAKE$)
3rd make the buyer pay higher SSD (MAKE $)
4th i think the govt going to issue more Sg bond then increase the rate.
I think the only way to curb the ppty bubble to to sell HDB at huge discount...see who still wan to buy private. but HDB lose out...so proposal BAN.
Global recession is coming....
Ai yah, talk so much also useless, wait for 3 months and see the property transactions and we will know.
My guess is that it will hit speculators/investors buying/owning OCR properties >$1m worth and those selling >$1000 psf. OCR buyers just don't have so much cash to buy and take over the babies from these speculators/investors!
Newbie
One thing for sure is property stock prices will fall tmr when market opens. If u got the guts, short sell and make a handsome profit in one day. This new cooling measure will affect more of the new launches than resale cos 1st time buyer or upgraders cannot afford to wait 3 yrs for hse to be built while having money stucked (20% to 40%). This will help resale units tat r completed.
Deepsea
I replying spikey that developers can rent out unsold units & fighting for same pool of tenants. What's the demand still unknown yet, if the floodgate open wider for higher inflow then water will rise lor.More rental units coming into the market means more supply.. and you know the equation about supply and demand... meaning lower rental rates lah
MBFC & the new mrt lines need ppl to fill up right? Confirm demand for ur meimei will increase, better supply more to cool down the demand. hehheh
Junior
chain link effect.. be it if is new,resale or haunted..
Senior
i don't think you have the balls to shortsell 1000 lots of capitaland tmr.
Senior
i think exercise in 1 day is possible. just how willing r the buyers after they know of the news.
Is it possible to exercise the option in 1 day, correction, in a few hours?
The measure will scare some speculators away... if they, like some of the forumers here, think that prices will fall.
Newbie
eeeeiiii...i smell opportunity here...if we all gang up and short sell Capland tomorrow ard 9.00am till 9.20am period together there might be a chance to make $ ard 9.45am. Target all of us sell till it drop approxi 5% then let the panic work it ways to 7-8% then we Buy back ard 9.45am.
Anyone?Onz?
Junior
very simple , just call bank to terminate cheque. $$ wont go thro right ?
Newbie
That`s why I wrote before exactly, those who care more about LTV 10% difference are more found in group of HDB or OCR buyers.
They generally got small balls.
long-term investors don`t really care about SSD, because anyway it takes 3-4 year to TOP for new projects.
For many other country case, no matter how strong measure comes, market may slow down a bit for few months, but it will still go up if there are other favorable factors out there, like now in S'pore.
Senior
MM craze leh. you could be surprised. they may even be exercising now so that they don't get hit by the rules rather than be concerned about prices will fall or not.(btw, i m not a MM supporter hee).
Go for Smallest Unit
Yes, the lucky few who escaped. No one to fight over them for at least a year
Junior
should not apply to land sales otherwise, no one will bid for Govt land as well. Loan to developer is a construction loan and not housing loanlooks like 50% LTV for non individuals will put Enbloc to a STOP....
60% LTV....kind of expected...
the SSD machiam like capital gain tax!.....if market downturn how....those who sold at a loss still kena 4-16% SSD!!! wow....i tink SSD more jialat den cap gain tax leh....
now really small is beauitful liao......sianz.....more MMs to come
Last edited by Laguna; 13-01-11 at 22:36.
Banned
Very sad evening for me.
I just rang up my agent and told her that I am cancelling the purchase of a studio unit at The Clift that I had just bought last week. 1% deposit already paid last week. Supposed to exercise the option on the coming Monday. I have been shopping for the last one 1 year and finally just decided last week to realise my dream as a property owner.
I was not worried about the LTV (cos I am a first time buyer) or even the SSD (cos I can actually exercise my option tonight at the lawyer's). But I decided to forgo my 1% deposit due to the following reasons:
1) I bought a studio unit in Shenton area. So very clear cut, it's for investment/speculation reasons only. My next buyer (say... even 4 years later) is likely to be an investor as well, cos it is extremely unlikely for a genuine long-stayer to move his whole family into a studio unit in Shenton. So, will the next buyer be willing to also hold for 4 years? Unlikely. Well, he might - but only if the price is really cheap.
2) This cooling measure was the most dreconian ever. Remember when Shanghai imposed the 15% SD 2 months ago, property sales volume plunged by 80% in the next 2 months?
3) Prices are very likely to drop, or at best stagnate, after these new cooling measures. I am now going to target at least a 2-bedder in RCR (my budget cannot get a 2-bedder in prime area anymore). That will give me a larger investment window because the next buyer can very likely be a long-stayer rather than a speculator.
4) If the market turns during the older times, I can still afford the 3% SSD. But if market should turn within the next year, wah piang how to find 16% to pay iras, or pay for the margin call?
5) To begin with, I bought the unit at an "ok" price only, not that it was a fantastic price. It was actually a sub-sub-sale unit, right before T.O.P.
6) I think with the CPF i have on hand, can invest back in to equities, since the equity market is going well now.
7) The rest of the cash on hand can buy London property, or KLCC, or even some good buys in the States. Places where cooling measures are not in operation (well, at least not yet).
Haii... the new round of cooling measure really kill speculators la.. Well, at least it had an effect on me.
Last edited by sunboy77; 13-01-11 at 22:38.
东方
You are darn right on this - price will up at least 20-30% more to cover the 16% ssd! Huat ah!
Newbie
I have a different view to this:
1) I bought a studio unit in Shenton area. So very clear cut, it's for investment/speculation reasons only. My next buyer (say... even 4 years later) is likely to be an investor as well, cos it is extremely unlikely for a genuine long-stayer to move his whole family into a studio unit in Shenton. So, will the next buyer be willing to also hold for 4 years? Unlikely. Well, he might - but only if the price is really cheap.
- There is a type of buyer for every type of property. If Singapore continues to do well in economy, this Shenton area unit will still be attractive to some foreign expats who can only purchase something at this budget. The location will always be a plus factor.
2) This cooling measure was the most dreconian ever. Remember when Shanghai imposed the 15% SD 2 months ago, property sales volume plunged by 80% in the next 2 months?
- sales volume can plunge, but price may not plunge. When nobody is buying and nobody is selling, the price will either stagnate or go up. But this could be a situation where nobody wants to sell, but people may still want to buy.
3) Prices are very likely to drop, or at best stagnate, after these new cooling measures. I am now going to target at least a 2-bedder in RCR (my budget cannot get a 2-bedder in prime area anymore). That will give me a larger investment window because the next buyer can very likely be a long-stayer rather than a speculator.
- If i have a 2 bedder in RCR, i wont sell it to you now because I can still hold onto the property with the current interest rates. Don't you see? I have already bought it, so I am not affected by this and all the more I won't want to sell now because I will be affected by the policies if I want to buy something now.
6) I think with the CPF i have on hand, can invest back in to equities, since the equity market is going well now.
- That is also not very safe! Bubbles move from one sector to another.
7) The rest of the cash on hand can buy London property, or KLCC, or even some good buys in the States. Places where cooling measures are not in operation (well, at least not yet).
- Will happen sooner or later, but this current policy is good in keeping the market increasing in price steadily. Market will crash only if the sellers sell suddenly (and altogether).
Camper
I don't pity you sunboy77. It is flippers like you that have caused the property market to rise so quickly.
Very sad evening for me.
I just rang up my agent and told her that I am cancelling the purchase of a studio unit at The Clift that I had just bought last week. 1% deposit already paid last week. Supposed to exercise the option on the coming Monday. I have been shopping for the last one 1 year and finally just decided last week to realise my dream as a property owner.
I was not worried about the LTV (cos I am a first time buyer) or even the SSD (cos I can actually exercise my option tonight at the lawyer's). But I decided to forgo my 1% deposit due to the following reasons:
1) I bought a studio unit in Shenton area. So very clear cut, it's for investment/speculation reasons only. My next buyer (say... even 4 years later) is likely to be an investor as well, cos it is extremely unlikely for a genuine long-stayer to move his whole family into a studio unit in Shenton. So, will the next buyer be willing to also hold for 4 years? Unlikely. Well, he might - but only if the price is really cheap.
2) This cooling measure was the most dreconian ever. Remember when Shanghai imposed the 15% SD 2 months ago, property sales volume plunged by 80% in the next 2 months?
3) Prices are very likely to drop, or at best stagnate, after these new cooling measures. I am now going to target at least a 2-bedder in RCR (my budget cannot get a 2-bedder in prime area anymore). That will give me a larger investment window because the next buyer can very likely be a long-stayer rather than a speculator.
4) If the market turns during the older times, I can still afford the 3% SSD. But if market should turn within the next year, wah piang how to find 16% to pay iras, or pay for the margin call?
5) To begin with, I bought the unit at an "ok" price only, not that it was a fantastic price. It was actually a sub-sub-sale unit, right before T.O.P.
6) I think with the CPF i have on hand, can invest back in to equities, since the equity market is going well now.
7) The rest of the cash on hand can buy London property, or KLCC, or even some good buys in the States. Places where cooling measures are not in operation (well, at least not yet).
Haii... the new round of cooling measure really kill speculators la.. Well, at least it had an effect on me.
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