Property market sentiments 2011

[irisng]

Frankly speaking, IMHO, HDB income ceiling of $8k don't need to be raised. How many people are affected by that $8k ceiling buying their 1st property? Fresh graduates generally about $3-3.5k pm only, so that $8k ceiling is a good incentive for them to get married and get a HDB flat early.
Instead, they should just increase the supply and ensure that the 4-rm HDB flat price remains affordable to median income families. The rest will scale accordingly.
And the private property market sector only affects like 15-20% people, why should they go and meddle unless there is a property bubble or for some other unknown reason (e.g. got conflict of interest or not?)? And there isn't any bubble for now (since they can't even define what is a bubble properly!). The price increase seems to be inline with the increase in income of the top 20% earners. It is that private properties are just too cheap previously and not that they are too expensive now!

I was thinking if govt is going to increase the ceiling to 10K, then more people can afford to buy HDB, isn't it will push the HDB prices up further. But it seems that nowadays lot of upgraders prefer to own a pte ppty than HDB. I'm not very familiar with the current system of applying HDB but I think it could be the downpayment that causes the poor 1st timer/young couples who just started working unable to foot up the cash. If I remember correctly, during my old old time, I can use the CPF to foot out the downpayment, don't need to come out with cash and we borrowed the loan from the CPF board and not from the bank.

[hyenergix]

Mass market condo and MM will most likely be hit badly if the ceiliing for EC is raised by $2k. Many ECs are very well-located and value for $.

I hope it can be raised further so that more people can buy and HDB can earn our $ and it goes back to the government reserve instead of into the private developers' pocket.

[McKinnon]

dont underestimate the intrinsic desire to move to a condominium.

my young colleagues tell me, better to own an MM condo than a big hdb.

and i don't think young ppl w 12k income have the patience to wait out MOP.

also, there are many with fully paid up hdbs bought low.

if they cash out now, they will nab 400-500k in cash and cpf.

will they join the Q for a bto hdb?

[DC33_2008]

I guess it is rather difficult now to bring the private property price down as compared to two years ago unless due to external factors. The price of HDB flats have already gone too far to be brought down. One way is to give more rebates for new hdb buyers.

Middle income grp always aspire to buy pte housing. But the price increase faster than their income, so they are unhappy.. Now govt trying to please them, so govt need to lower pte property prices.. U give them a dream and hope, they give u a vote..

[kingkong1984]

dont underestimate the intrinsic desire to move to a condominium.

my young colleagues tell me, better to own an MM condo than a big hdb.

and i don't think young ppl w 12k income have the patience to wait out MOP.

Be patient, rules changing

[teddybear]

Middle income group want to buy private properties? They have to be more realistic - they upgrade their income to top 20% then they sure can afford lor.
It is not the job of govt to guarantee them affordability/ability to buy private properties. If govt do so, they are just plain stupid! What next? Govt going to make cars easily affordable to them and still make sure road is smooth as silk? Free medical outpatient & hospitalization? Govt need to sponsor all their kids to complete overseas elite university education? What next? Govt to make restaurant food cheap enough for them to eat at restaurant 3 meals a day? There is no end to this for this some small number of greedy people who want more than they can chew!

Middle income grp always aspire to buy pte housing. But the price increase faster than their income, so they are unhappy.. Now govt trying to please them, so govt need to lower pte property prices.. U give them a dream and hope, they give u a vote..

[teddybear]

Very funny! By that token, PAP will be booted out of control by 90% of property owners who see decreased/negative property equity while the 10% youngsters who waiting to buy & benefited may not even necessary vote for them for want of more alternate voices!

This kind of thing sure got domino effect.. I suspect his first move will be to increase ceiling for public housing, ie bto to 10k and ec, dbss to 12k.. This move will make these housing huat, while mass market condo will kena big time.. After that people see price start dropping, everybody scared also selling their units, causing price correction.. This seems like the perfect next pte property cooling measure..

For resale, to please singaporeans, maybe he will come out with some extra stamp duty for foreigners and PRs.. By doing this, it will reduce the price of resale while at the same time pressure more foreigners and PRs to take up citizenship.. One stone kill 2 birds.. This is the way forward..

[andy]

Minister Khaw Boon Wan famous saying: "No money go JB loh"

The same saying can apply to MND too

With Khaw replacing MBT as National Development what do you think will be the impact on private properties.

Also do you think there will be a $8 HDB in JB?

[devilplate]

Middle income group want to buy private properties? They have to be more realistic - they upgrade their income to top 20% then they sure can afford lor.
It is not the job of govt to guarantee them affordability/ability to buy private properties. If govt do so, they are just plain stupid! What next? Govt going to make cars easily affordable to them and still make sure road is smooth as silk? Free medical outpatient & hospitalization? Govt need to sponsor all their kids to complete overseas elite university education? What next? Govt to make restaurant food cheap enough for them to eat at restaurant 3 meals a day? There is no end to this for this some small number of greedy people who want more than they can chew!

We r tinking alike

Only argue on ccr/ocr....i believe nxt cycle, i will up ccr stake instead n sing song tgt

[devilplate]

This kind of thing sure got domino effect.. I suspect his first move will be to increase ceiling for public housing, ie bto to 10k and ec, dbss to 12k.. This move will make these housing huat, while mass market condo will kena big time.. After that people see price start dropping, everybody scared also selling their units, causing price correction.. This seems like the perfect next pte property cooling measure..

For resale, to please singaporeans, maybe he will come out with some extra stamp duty for foreigners and PRs.. By doing this, it will reduce the price of resale while at the same time pressure more foreigners and PRs to take up citizenship.. One stone kill 2 birds.. This is the way forward..

Y u say ec/dbss huat big time but ocr pte condo kena big time? Dun make sense...

If ec px goes up, ocr condo will goes up to maintain the 15-20%premium
In fact, now ocr pte condos r threatened by cheap ec like we just discussed under h20thread

[irisng]

Middle income grp always aspire to buy pte housing. But the price increase faster than their income, so they are unhappy.. Now govt trying to please them, so govt need to lower pte property prices.. U give them a dream and hope, they give u a vote..

If govt is going to lower the pte ppty prices just to please those middle income group who wants to buy the pte ppty, then how about those people who already had a few pte properties in hand, they will be unhappy with the drop in pty ppty prices also, so is it govt later need to raise the pte ppty prices again to make this group of ppl happy, up down up down, sighhhhh.. no ending.... If the middle income group can't afford, don't buy now, wait for opportunities and save enough cash before going into the pte ppty market.

[sh]

If govt is going to lower the pte ppty prices just to please those middle income group who wants to buy the pte ppty, then how about those people who already had a few pte properties in hand, they will be unhappy with the drop in pty ppty prices also, so is it govt later need to raise the pte ppty prices again to make this group of ppl happy, up down up down, sighhhhh.. no ending.... If the middle income group can't afford, don't buy now, wait for opportunities and save enough cash before going into the pte ppty market.

The govt already knows the proportion of the population with "a few" properties. The number is probably quite low (unlike the proportion in this forum )

They will rather forgo the votes from this minority, than dent the aspirations of the majority....

HOW!!!!!!

[DC33_2008]

One way for them is not to peg to prevailing market rate but lowering it. It is about the way they work out of their sums in the balance sheet for HDB account. They have a choice to show either they make or lose money.

If govt is going to lower the pte ppty prices just to please those middle income group who wants to buy the pte ppty, then how about those people who already had a few pte properties in hand, they will be unhappy with the drop in pty ppty prices also, so is it govt later need to raise the pte ppty prices again to make this group of ppl happy, up down up down, sighhhhh.. no ending.... If the middle income group can't afford, don't buy now, wait for opportunities and save enough cash before going into the pte ppty market.

[ysyap]

Middle income grp always aspire to buy pte housing. But the price increase faster than their income, so they are unhappy.. Now govt trying to please them, so govt need to lower pte property prices.. U give them a dream and hope, they give u a vote..

1 month late or 5 years too early... don't think he'll do something like that... he cannot really lower ppty prices coz 99% of Singaporeans stay in a property so lowering it means 99% of Singaporeans will lose, but maybe can maintain or reduce rate of increase.

[sh]

1 month late or 5 years too early... don't think he'll do something like that... he cannot really lower ppty prices coz 99% of Singaporeans stay in a property so lowering it means 99% of Singaporeans will lose, but maybe can maintain or reduce rate of increase.

The aim is keep the price constant, with slow increase. No government wants prices to drop, the impact on the economy will be BAD.....

[ysyap]

One way for them is not to peg to prevailing market rate but lowering it. It is about the way they work out of their sums in the balance sheet for HDB account. They have a choice to show either they make or lose money.

HDB account is one big mess! Govt can twist and turn to their need. They always say HDB making huge losses but never account the profits HDB make from HDB loans at good interest rates. With 80% Singaporeans staying in HDB and say some 40% (hypothetical) taking HDB loans, they monopolized the HDB housing loans... this is like 3 banks combined... how not to make money???

[DC33_2008]

We do not want to be like US home price trend.

The aim is keep the price constant, with slow increase. No government wants prices to drop, the impact on the economy will be BAD.....

[irisng]

The govt already knows the proportion of the population with "a few" properties. The number is probably quite low (unlike the proportion in this forum )

They will rather forgo the votes from this minority, than dent the aspirations of the majority....

HOW!!!!!!

Jia lek la!

Okay, maybe the proportion is low for those who have a "few properties", but I think there are quite a proportion of them who already had their own ppty (including HDB owners). This could be outnumbered those ppl who wish to purchase the pte ppty but can't afford because of high prices. So if the pte ppty drops, do you think the HDB prices will drop also?

[irisng]

The aim is keep the price constant, with slow increase. No government wants prices to drop, the impact on the economy will be BAD.....

You are right!

[DC33_2008]

Singapore and its property market is so small. What do you think?

Jia lek la!

Okay, maybe the proportion is low for those who have a "few properties", but I think there are quite a proportion of them who already had their own ppty (including HDB owners). This could be outnumbered those ppl who wish to purchase the pte ppty but can't afford because of high prices. So if the pte ppty drops, do you think the HDB prices will drop also?

[linchong84]

Very funny! By that token, PAP will be booted out of control by 90% of property owners who see decreased/negative property equity while the 10% youngsters who waiting to buy & benefited may not even necessary vote for them for want of more alternate voices!

U sala already.. Now is the best time to piss everyone off due to human's poor memory.. The govt sooner or later need to correct the price one, now election over liao, best time to do it.. 2-3 years later market pick up and people start to huat then they will thank the govt and vote them in again..

[irisng]

The aim is keep the price constant, with slow increase. No government wants prices to drop, the impact on the economy will be BAD.....

Yes, you are right!

[devilplate]

HDB account is one big mess! Govt can twist and turn to their need. They always say HDB making huge losses but never account the profits HDB make from HDB loans at good interest rates. With 80% Singaporeans staying in HDB and say some 40% (hypothetical) taking HDB loans, they monopolized the HDB housing loans... this is like 3 banks combined... how not to make money???

They lose money due to land valuations by sla

This period, hdb loan making money....but lose money when pte bank loans more den 2.6%

[kingkong1984]

You are right!

How to do that? Keep SSD, built smaller and further and also give more BTO/ DBSS and ECs... Keep the resale MOP of 5 years too.

The secret weapon, SSD for PRs forever!

[DC33_2008]

Do remember that there is any election coming in this year. That is the reason why the formation of a "rational" cabinet.

U sala already.. Now is the best time to piss everyone off due to human's poor memory.. The govt sooner or later need to correct the price one, now election over liao, best time to do it.. 2-3 years later market pick up and people start to huat then they will thank the govt and vote them in again..

[irisng]

Singapore and its property market is so small. What do you think?

I think as times go, the ppty market will go up because of limited land but don't know when, don't know whether I have the chance to see or not.

[DaytonaSS]

This kind of thing sure got domino effect.. I suspect his first move will be to increase ceiling for public housing, ie bto to 10k and ec, dbss to 12k.. This move will make these housing huat, while mass market condo will kena big time.. After that people see price start dropping, everybody scared also selling their units, causing price correction.. This seems like the perfect next pte property cooling measure..
.

I dont really understand what you trying to say.....

If increase income ceiling increases the prices of the BTO type/whichever type of housing prices go up, issnt minister of MND slapping own face? The target is not to increase the price too much, issit this what the Gen Y complaining about?

You are assuming pple whom buy pte condo will flock to HDB cos now they can buy? Personal observation on the 10-12k income range that would love to choose HDB over private housing is not a big % enough to cause a big price correction.

Nowadays pple like to say, "aiya i cant qualify to buy a HDB flat/EC leh"
to add a killing blow , " i m suprise you can still qualify for one"

[ysyap]

They lose money due to land valuations by sla

This period, hdb loan making money....but lose money when pte bank loans more den 2.6%

That's the problem... they consider land valuation as money lost when they didn't even pay a single cent for the land in order to sell it... Govt money passes from right hand to left hand still govt money... Can they say they lose money but SLA gains money??? Also, whether pte bank have high or low interest rates, HDB controls majority of the loans so its the volume that speaks louder than the interest rates... low interest rates over a huge volume still translates to ballooning profits... The richest man in China made his billions by selling very cheap stuff but its the volume that gave him the huge profits... hahaha!!!

[DC33_2008]

With the $ getting smaller and inflation over the years, property prices will go up. As you say, limited land will also boost prices up. As asian likes real asset and the demand will boost it further.

I think as times go, the ppty market will go up because of limited land but don't know when, don't know whether I have the chance to see or not.

[devilplate]

I dont really understand what you trying to say.....

If increase income ceiling increases the prices of the BTO type/whichever type of housing prices go up, issnt minister of MND slapping own face? The target is not to increase the price too much, issit this what the Gen Y complaining about?

You are assuming pple whom buy pte condo will flock to HDB cos now they can buy? Personal observation on the 10-12k income range that would love to choose HDB over private housing is not a big % enough to cause a big price correction.

Nowadays pple like to say, "aiya i cant qualify to buy a HDB flat/EC leh"
to add a killing blow , " i m suprise you can still qualify for one"

Raise income ceiling will increase affordibility n leads to px increase...mbt nvr raise ceiling to curb px...its those selfish sandwiched group tat request for it