Property market sentiments 2011

[ysyap]

Govt should start to clamp down on developers. It is the developers who are the main driving force for upward prices and record sales (for NEW units not resales).

Even new units launched at record psf will inevitably affect the resale market too...

[eng81157]

how??

hey guys, foreign developers must complete the project within 5yrs from the sale of GLS rite? den they must aso sell all their units within how many yrs?

honestly think this is a stupid measure. say, if i'm a foreign developer, i don't complete my project within the 5 year period, what are you going to do to me? punitive measures and slap me with more charges?? what kind of signal will the govt give to foreign investors - not welcoming of FDIs?

if i don't sell my units within 5 years, are you going to confiscate my units? force sell through auctions?? is the govt willing to tarnish its reputation, which was painstakingly nurtured, for being easy to conduct business in?

my personal take is - all talk, no bite. just like that retail price watch group, only dare to go after small hawkers and ignore big honchos like the petrol companies cartel that always have the uncanny ability to time their price adjustments similarly.

[ysyap]

Last time got 1 article mentioning the valuers are at fault.
How can new development be priced so much higher than old developments.

Think the guy is correct.
Developer can price high but if bank valuation below developer's asking price, buyers have to cough up more cash.
So CM5 should target valuers.

Developers are caught here so they cannot price an OCR at $2000 psf, at least not yet... but the banks who want more business will generally work something out so they can match the asking price of developers too by giving out cash rebate for longer tenure, etc, whatever goes..

[stalingrad]

How can forum members claim (as they did not so long ago) that people are still happy after last round of CM and that those who don't come out to complain are happy. I would have though that most "average" citizens would be unhappy (apart from developers and URA of course). Man-in-the-street doesn't know to buy now (scared missed the boat AGAIN) or not to buy (scared the boat will sink soon). In the meantime developers driving the price upwards with their aggressive bidding and strong marketing tactics. Govt should start to clamp down on developers. It is the developers who are the main driving force for upward prices and record sales (for NEW units not resales).

raise the interest rates by letting sing dollar float higher. that is the only way.

[chiaberry]

Last time got 1 article mentioning the valuers are at fault.
How can new development be priced so much higher than old developments.

Think the guy is correct.
Developer can price high but if bank valuation below developer's asking price, buyers have to cough up more cash.
So CM5 should target valuers.

I wonder if the valuers are in cahoots with the banks. Banks want to lend money to meet their targets yet now the 60% LTV hits them hard. I noticed that the bank's valuations are on the high side than what I would expect due to recent revaluation of one of my condos by the bank who is very keen to give me equity loan). I don't think I would be able to sell the pty at that valuation px (or am I being too pessimistic?) so I wonder if banks are employing valuers who are on the high side so that they can give out more loans?

[ysyap]

I wonder if the valuers are in cahoots with the banks. Banks want to lend money to meet their targets yet now the 60% LTV hits them hard. I noticed that the bank's valuations are on the high side than what I would expect due to recent revaluation of one of my condos by the bank who is very keen to give me equity loan). I don't think I would be able to sell the pty at that valuation px (or am I being too pessimistic?) so I wonder if banks are employing valuers who are on the high side so that they can give out more loans?

Valuers generally base their valuation on past transacted price plus current potential. They can always explain their high valuation by attributing to high potential lor... can't really fault them on this. This is always the case. Try valuing a property high during down times? Sure valuer sure say no current potential so value low lor but cannot be too low coz of high past transacted price. This also explains why property price index always lags other sectors... that second component for valuing a property is conveniently taken as their buffer...

[chiaberry]

Valuers generally base their valuation on past transacted price plus current potential. They can always explain their high valuation by attributing to high potential lor... can't really fault them on this. This is always the case. Try valuing a property high during down times? Sure valuer will say no current potential so value low lor... that second component for valuing a property is conveniently taken as their buffer...

I compare my pty with recent URA tx. Doesn't seem to me like it deserves that high a valuation. I "suppose" it's opposite soon-to-be-opened Circle Line station but even then....got N***pressway starting digging soon next to it so I think that should drag the valuation back down.

[devilplate]

honestly think this is a stupid measure. say, if i'm a foreign developer, i don't complete my project within the 5 year period, what are you going to do to me? punitive measures and slap me with more charges?? what kind of signal will the govt give to foreign investors - not welcoming of FDIs?

if i don't sell my units within 5 years, are you going to confiscate my units? force sell through auctions?? is the govt willing to tarnish its reputation, which was painstakingly nurtured, for being easy to conduct business in?

my personal take is - all talk, no bite. just like that retail price watch group, only dare to go after small hawkers and ignore big honchos like the petrol companies cartel that always have the uncanny ability to time their price adjustments similarly.

these measure oredi imposed ....just tat i forgotten about the timeline.....

the penalty for holding on unsold units will be a 'extension charges'.....but duno how much also...

[hopeful]

........
my personal take is - all talk, no bite. just like that retail price watch group, only dare to go after small hawkers and ignore big honchos like the petrol companies cartel that always have the uncanny ability to time their price adjustments similarly.

isnt that the nature of publicly available information . Afterall crude oil pricing are available all the time.
if not the same, can arbitrage already. buy from bp, sell to esso for example.

[devilplate]

seems nobody knows the exact timeframe for developers to complete and sell.....i tink it was imposed last yr

[ysyap]

I compare my pty with recent URA tx. Doesn't seem to me like it deserves that high a valuation. I "suppose" it's opposite soon-to-be-opened Circle Line station but even then....got N***pressway starting digging soon next to it so I think that should drag the valuation back down.

During up times, it is against bank's interest to value a property low coz earn less from interest so even when there are downsides to a ppt, it'll still concentrate on the potential. The same goes during down times, bank will not value ppt high. They'll just concentrate on the down side and ignore any potential so can't lend high. Very practical... otherwise will become like freddie mac or citibank

[eng81157]

isnt that the nature of publicly available information . Afterall crude oil pricing are available all the time.
if not the same, can arbitrage already. buy from bp, sell to esso for example.

heh, that's why my take is - all talk and no bite. if it were up to me, 1st action item will be to ban MMs, and see if the psf will still be artificially propped up.

[hopeful]

heh, that's why my take is - all talk and no bite. if it were up to me, 1st action item will be to ban MMs, and see if the psf will still be artificially propped up.

if ban MMs now, MM will now be limited edition items. MM psf will go up again.

[chiaberry]

During up times, it is against bank's interest to value a property low coz earn less from interest so even when there are downsides to a ppt, it'll still concentrate on the potential. The same goes during down times, bank will not value ppt high. They'll just concentrate on the down side and ignore any potential so can't lend high. Very practical... otherwise will become like freddie mac or citibank

I think our banks are already VERY SAFE due to 60% LTV rules. Hmmm...I think unlikely for pty px to drop 40%. They already have a BIG BIG buffer. Not likely to become big macs or small macs anytime soon.

[proud owner]

Valuers generally base their valuation on past transacted price plus current potential. They can always explain their high valuation by attributing to high potential lor... can't really fault them on this. This is always the case. Try valuing a property high during down times? Sure valuer sure say no current potential so value low lor but cannot be too low coz of high past transacted price. This also explains why property price index always lags other sectors... that second component for valuing a property is conveniently taken as their buffer...

the correct way ..from my udnerstanding how valuation is done in NY is ...
based on most recent transaction ..of a unit of same size, level of renovation , etc


cannot based on POTENTIAL


cos thats a future value and future cannot be predicted ..


however in spore ... they do add Potential into its valuation , it seems ..

which i think is not fair , nor correct

if i am a valuer in singapore .. i can also value Bkt timah prop LOW LOW ... why ?
cos to me ..the potential has peaked.. and that there is a POTENTIAL that the schools maybe relocated ..

can i do that ?

if i cannot value it with a LOW potential based on my own judgement ..then it is definitely not fair to value it with a HIGH potential simply becos .. POTENTIAL is UNKNOWN ..

since it is an unknown ... it cannot be taken into consideration when doing valuation

[eng81157]

if ban MMs now, MM will now be limited edition items. MM psf will go up again.

heh, limited edition!! can i sell them like some limited edition transformers or gi joe action figure??

rather limit the spillover effect of MM units now than later. but it's just me, not that this will come through unless i get invited to a 'white-shirt' tea party and run for GE.

[devilplate]

the correct way ..from my udnerstanding how valuation is done in NY is ...
based on most recent transaction ..of a unit of same size, level of renovation , etc


cannot based on POTENTIAL


cos thats a future value and future cannot be predicted ..


however in spore ... they do add Potential into its valuation , it seems ..

which i think is not fair , nor correct

if i am a valuer in singapore .. i can also value Bkt timah prop LOW LOW ... why ?
cos to me ..the potential has peaked.. and that there is a POTENTIAL that the schools maybe relocated ..

can i do that ?

if i cannot value it with a LOW potential based on my own judgement ..then it is definitely not fair to value it with a HIGH potential simply becos .. POTENTIAL is UNKNOWN ..

since it is an unknown ... it cannot be taken into consideration when doing valuation

cannot based on past transaction....not fair too...

if let say ur condo last tx was done 1-2yrs back...how?

fairest is going by comparative market valuation(similar to HDB valuation)

[devilplate]

heh, limited edition!! can i sell them like some limited edition transformers or gi joe action figure??

rather limit the spillover effect of MM units now than later. but it's just me, not that this will come through unless i get invited to a 'white-shirt' tea party and run for GE.

i suggested smthing similar leh....but some say say free market forces.....cannot expect govt to babysit....

cooling measures its oredi babysitting and distorting free market forces liao

[devilplate]

by the way, all these tok about bank valuation quite misleading la.....its actually bank indication and not actual valuation.....

pte ppty: banks r allowed to decide their own valuation....depending on the buyer's credibility

if the buyer cash flow vy tight, bank will not try to match a higher valuation.....but if its the opposite, banks can match 5-10% more..no problem....so all depends whether they want YOUR business anot

if u want fair fair valuation.....engage ur own valuers to give u a formal valuation report lor....but den seller always ask for higher px in a upturn .....so LL aso goto pay 'COV' wat LOL

or u guys still not happy, propose to MAS/Govt tat pte ppty shd also follow HDB......every seller must get a formal valuation report and banks r only allowed to lend up to 60% of the valuation value....the rest consider COV....hehe

[ay123]

seems nobody knows the exact timeframe for developers to complete and sell.....i tink it was imposed last yr

think is 2 years.......

[devilplate]

another thing y developer sales r moving but not resale....

developer px, banks SURELY match....so definitely no top up required.....whereas, resale on case by case basis.....

if ur condo not much tx, u feel fed up as a seller too.....banks just based on past tx px......buyer wana buy aso goto top up wif extra cash....tats y resale not moving

[ay123]

the correct way ..from my udnerstanding how valuation is done in NY is ...
based on most recent transaction ..of a unit of same size, level of renovation , etc


cannot based on POTENTIAL


cos thats a future value and future cannot be predicted ..


however in spore ... they do add Potential into its valuation , it seems ..

which i think is not fair , nor correct

if i am a valuer in singapore .. i can also value Bkt timah prop LOW LOW ... why ?
cos to me ..the potential has peaked.. and that there is a POTENTIAL that the schools maybe relocated ..

can i do that ?

if i cannot value it with a LOW potential based on my own judgement ..then it is definitely not fair to value it with a HIGH potential simply becos .. POTENTIAL is UNKNOWN ..

since it is an unknown ... it cannot be taken into consideration when doing valuation

will price differ a lot if side by side but one with posh reno?

[devilplate]

think is 2 years.......

isit 5yrs must complete the project and must sell all units within 2yrs after TOP?

[jwong71]

cannot based on past transaction....not fair too...

if let say ur condo last tx was done 1-2yrs back...how?

fairest is going by comparative market valuation(similar to HDB valuation)

sorry to say, yes valuations are based on the past tx..

etc valuation for kembangan court was at 480k, and asking price 520k. valuation is low, bcoz of low transactions for the project.

*boutique condos or smaller projects will have lesser transaction,as time goes by. thus same issues will surface,affecting the valuation.

[devilplate]

sorry to say, yes valuations are based on the past tx..

etc valuation for kembangan court was at 480k, and asking price 520k. valuation is low, bcoz of low transactions for the project.

*boutique condos or smaller projects will have lesser transaction,as time goes by. thus same issues will surface,affecting the valuation.

or those old old projects....similar fate.....we check caveats tot cheap cheap.....but den cant find any sellers or their asking way above past tx.....meaning u goto top up alot of cash

[gn108]

Past tx is the best guide used - but in cases where no tx has taken place for years - then surrounding txs from nearby developments are used for a guide. All-in-all sounds like a scam of a process.

sorry to say, yes valuations are based on the past tx..

etc valuation for kembangan court was at 480k, and asking price 520k. valuation is low, bcoz of low transactions for the project.

*boutique condos or smaller projects will have lesser transaction,as time goes by. thus same issues will surface,affecting the valuation.

[devilplate]

tats y i always ended up buying subsale or direct from developer....

as for boutqiue apts....better sell within first 5yrs....unless u wana keep it for long term

[jwong71]

Past tx is the best guide used - but in cases where no tx has taken place for years - then surrounding txs from nearby developments are used for a guide. All-in-all sounds like a scam of a process.

if they were to consolidate the surrounding condos and derive a valuation based on that. they can do better than that 480k. Condos nearby are at 600-700k

kembangan court surrounded by many new condos.? yet valuation abit sucky. bocx of low transactions are over the past few years

ps: sister is in the banking sector,i alway ask her to get the valuers for the valuation.

[devilplate]

if they were to consolidate the surrounding condos and derive a valuation based on that. they can do better than that 480k. Condos nearby are at 600-700k

kembangan court surrounded by many new condos.? yet valuation abit sucky. bocx of low transactions are over the past few years

ps: sister is in the banking sector,i alway ask her to get the valuers for the valuation.

yes very true....

so many ppl say better buy resale(they see caveats much cheaper den new launches).....wait till they go and really source for one....they will ended up buying from developer instead....LOL

[gn108]

I spoke to two senior valuers - the way they described the process was not very scientific especially for Indicative Valuation.
Consider this and that, but mainly last tx.
Never even consider internal reno since they don't enter the unit.

More on last tx and market sentiment. So when market trending up = can give higher valuation. Else how to earn the fees?

if they were to consolidate the surrounding condos and derive a valuation based on that. they can do better than that 480k. Condos nearby are at 600-700k

kembangan court surrounded by many new condos.? yet valuation abit sucky. bocx of low transactions are over the past few years

ps: sister is in the banking sector,i alway ask her to get the valuers for the valuation.