Property market sentiments 2011

[AK47]

Sorry sir. May i know where this 10K CCR vacant came from?

For entire Singapore there is 12883 vacant units as at 4th Q 2010. Representing only 5% of completed units. Vacancy is at its lowest point since 07.

Dont be fool by 33000 unit unsold theory. Over 30K is the norm, just refer to 12 month ago figures. Price still went up 17+%.

[DaytonaSS]

i m not sure how many empty units there are. but as bro devilplate had mentioned, on the ground, rental asking above 8k are having problems finding tenants. so happens that current TOP spree is on these big units which will demand 8k or more rental: Duchess Resi, Trillium, Latitude, St. Thomas Suites, Ardmore II and more coming. may need some time to digest these but i have no doubt that once this is digested over the next year or two, the supply in CCR will be very limited.

very insightful n interesting trend u have brought up. Based on the rental argument, if avg middle management rental is $6k per month, the optimal quantum based on 3% yield should not be more than $2.4m.
$5k monthly rental based on 3% yield shouldnt be more than $2m.

[Wild Falcon]

They have been doing so for some time. But if hold too long with no light at the end of the tunnel e.g. Bukit Sembawang, they may just lower price to get rid of the eye sore.

Assuming its in the interest of developers not to have a major price drop, will they behave like a cartel and hold unsold units in an attempt to probe up property prices? What u guys think?

[bargain hunter]

i know of an expat who earned 15k a month and was given a 5k housing allowance. not sure if that is considered middle mgt. and that was near the rental peak in 2008!

very insightful n interesting trend u have brought up. Based on the rental argument, if avg middle management rental is $6k per month, the optimal quantum based on 3% yield should not be more than $2.4m.
$5k monthly rental based on 3% yield shouldnt be more than $2m.

[CCR]

Have la.

1997 inplement of capital tax. Drop some, than follow by currency crisis.

The drop was coz of Asian financial crisis... Then it starts to pick up after two years.... Then get whacked with sept 11, then ken a SARS... Quadruple crisis... Cooling measures, Asian financial crisis, sept 11 then SARS, SARS was the
Sat straw that broke the camel back man... Damn scary, coz no one know what will happen... Imagine if Asian countries like china hong kong singapore never control SArS, we might have 1/4 fewer people on earth man... Property will really plungemthen

[rattydrama]

why the change of tone ?? slow down .. slow down... slow down........but it is still up right? if not the cooling measure it will be up and up - double the speed.

Slowdown in price growth for public and private housing in Q1
Travis Teo
Channel NewsAsia
Friday, 1 April 2011, 1328 hrs


Singapore property market

Resale prices of public and private housing recorded slowdown in the first quarter of this year.

Resale prices of HDB flats are up 1.6% in the first quarter, a slowdown from the previous quarter which saw prices increase by 2.5%.

This is according to estimates released by the Housing & Development Board.

It added that it will offer 22,000 new Build-to-Order or BTO flats this year if demand is sustained.

Singapore's private property prices also saw a slowdown in growth, rising 2.1% in the first quarter, compared to 2.7% in the previous quarter.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority estimates showed that growth is led by the suburban areas which went up by 3.1%.

This is followed by prices in the city fringe areas which grew 2.2%, and the prime city areas which grew 0.9%.

The slowdown in price increase for both public and private housing came after strong cooling measures were introduced by the government earlier this year.

[DaytonaSS]

i know of an expat who earned 15k a month and was given a 5k housing allowance. not sure if that is considered middle mgt. and that was near the rental peak in 2008!

i m under the impression now rental rates are at all time peak..... judging by the 250k in 2008, 148k in 2009, 89k in 2010, population increase. A total of 33834 units were added. this includes 12643 units of HDB.

487k population increase.... 33834 units added... 14.393 person stay in 1 unit.

[DaytonaSS]

why the change of tone ?? slow down .. slow down... slow down........but it is still up right? if not the cooling measure it will be up and up - double the speed.

political correct way of phrasing continue price appreciation

[rattydrama]

i m under the impression now rental rates are at all time peak..... judging by the 250k in 2008, 148k in 2009, 89k in 2010, population increase. A total of 33834 units were added. this includes 12643 units of HDB.

487k population increase.... 33834 units added... 14.393 person stay in 1 unit.

But must be careful. Are these buyers stayer or quiters? Local Singapoeans, new singapreans or foreigners?

[rattydrama]

political correct way of phrasing continue price appreciation

this is misleading .. trying to tell readers that the price has moved down. distortion.

I am rather surprised to see that 1Q price still trending up. I just learnt from my agent friend 1 FH 2 bedder sold at record price for that small project in Potong Pasir.

[DaytonaSS]

this is misleading .. trying to tell readers that the price has moved down. distortion.

I am rather surprised to see that 1Q price still trending up. I just learnt from my agent friend 1 FH 2 bedder sold at record price for that small project in Potong Pasir.

if the copy writer put title as :

"Continued price rally at a slower rate despite cooling measure" he would surely be shown the door. Record prices could be from China buyers?

[rattydrama]

if the copy writer put title as :

"Continued price rally at a slower rate despite cooling measure" he would surely be shown the door. Record prices could be from China buyers?

onus on the readers.....but this is incorrect! make sure they earn big salary to swallow their pride.
Malaysia papers more interesting to read.

probably from china & malaysian buyers but dont forget CCR buyers may divest into 2 OCRs.

[sufri]

some parts RCR but some parts are OCR. e.g. telok kurau, St. Pat's. the more eastern side of D15 are OCR.

How about Amber garderns area?

[bargain hunter]

that is true for HDB, OCR, maybe RCR. but for CCR, it peaked in 08, now recovered close to but still slightly below on average (after including big units).

Just read the centrefold of "City & Country" in the latest edition of The Edge. Some notable reporting on sentosa:

Developers are actually renting out their unsold units: Residences at W, Turquoise, Seascape and Marina Collection.

A marketing agent said he recently renewed a lease at 20% less than the previous tenancy agreement.

Samuel Eyo is marketing a 2024 sq ft 3 bd apt at The Coast at 8k rent or 2300psf for sale. if want to sell at 2300psf, why put up for such low rental at the same time?

i m under the impression now rental rates are at all time peak..... judging by the 250k in 2008, 148k in 2009, 89k in 2010, population increase. A total of 33834 units were added. this includes 12643 units of HDB.

487k population increase.... 33834 units added... 14.393 person stay in 1 unit.

[DC33_2008]

Sales volume is down but price still trending up. Good location will still be moving selling at higher $psf.

this is misleading .. trying to tell readers that the price has moved down. distortion.

I am rather surprised to see that 1Q price still trending up. I just learnt from my agent friend 1 FH 2 bedder sold at record price for that small project in Potong Pasir.

[bargain hunter]

One Amber, Silversea, The Shore, Aalto, Amber Resi, Haig 162, Parc Seabreeze, The Cape, Aristo @ Amber are RCR

How about Amber garderns area?

[DaytonaSS]

One Amber, Silversea, The Shore, Aalto, Amber Resi, Haig 162, Parc Seabreeze, The Cape, Aristo @ Amber are RCR

Some place like Silversea n Cape selling at prices which make them feel like CCR

[DC33_2008]

Some even claim this to be city fringe.

Some place like Silversea n Cape selling at prices which make them feel like CCR

[francophile]

It's obviously not city fringe but I believe it has a much more upmarket feel than some city fringe areas.

[DaytonaSS]

Anyone visited showrooms over the wkend? Still got alot of action or not?

[devilplate]

Anyone visited showrooms over the wkend? Still got alot of action or not?

Not sure.... Quite a few foreign buyers keen on clift though

[DaytonaSS]

Not sure.... Quite a few foreign buyers keen on clift though

Huat huat Liao lor

[devilplate]

Huat huat Liao lor

Sm1 at another forum quoted 70% sold for devonshire residence at 2.5k psf average.... Speechless given the super CMI layout

[bargain hunter]

well, in yesterday's newspaper advert, devonshire residence added the tag "60% sold". so that was the status before this weekend started. 70% is possible. even then, by oxley/MM standard, that is real slow, taking more than 2 weeks since VVIP to reach 70%.

Sm1 at another forum quoted 70% sold for devonshire residence at 2.5k psf average.... Speechless given the super CMI layout

[devilplate]

well, in yesterday's newspaper advert, devonshire residence added the tag "60% sold". so that was the status before this weekend started. 70% is possible. even then, by oxley/MM standard, that is real slow, taking more than 2 weeks since VVIP to reach 70%.

2500psf and 1.2xmil for the 1bedder plus super cmi layout.....

MM plays on quantum....but each unit from 1.2xmil...and yet 70% sold! 40% downpayment....still alot of $$ to burn on a ridiculous layout?

actual livable space probably only 350-400sqft....haha

[bargain hunter]

good wat. soak up the liquidity.

2500psf and 1.2xmil for the 1bedder plus super cmi layout.....

MM plays on quantum....but each unit from 1.2xmil...and yet 70% sold! 40% downpayment....still alot of $$ to burn on a ridiculous layout?

actual livable space probably only 350-400sqft....haha

[devilplate]

good wat. soak up the liquidity.

just wondering how come mid flr skysuites not moving....

any latest update...

[fclim]

Dun rush to buy OCR projects. Plenty of supply coming. Those already sold and going to be sold under GLS are almost all OCR.

If there is currently genuine demand and everyone is holding back, expecting prices to drop, wouldn't that result in a pent-up demand situation 2 to 3 years later?

The current situation is that developers are cautious in raising prices due to the cooling measures and people's ability to fork out 40% cash/CPF. But, neither are they willing to lower prices since borrowing cost is low.

Perhaps developers have back up plans? If overseas buyers from say, China, form a significant part of the buyers pool, wouldn't that crowd out the Singaporeans in the future?

[ysyap]

If there is currently genuine demand and everyone is holding back, expecting prices to drop, wouldn't that result in a pent-up demand situation 2 to 3 years later?

The current situation is that developers are cautious in raising prices due to the cooling measures and people's ability to fork out 40% cash/CPF. But, neither are they willing to lower prices since borrowing cost is low.

Perhaps developers have back up plans? If overseas buyers from say, China, form a significant part of the buyers pool, wouldn't that crowd out the Singaporeans in the future?

CCR is self sufficient coz effects of cooling measures not hitting them as hard as OCR yet with the influx of rich foreigners coming in. However, I understand that developers in OCR are on the one hand, raising their prices cautiously, on the other hand, handing out lucky draws of winning a car (Benz). So they raise price and collect up to additional $100k per unit (from raised price) over say 20 units = $2m additional profit at the expense of one car say $180k. This is their back up plan. Market is still filled with demands waiting and watching and might just succumb to such promotional gimmicks... especially in OCR.

[devilplate]

CCR is self sufficient coz effects of cooling measures not hitting them as hard as OCR yet with the influx of rich foreigners coming in. However, I understand that developers in OCR are on the one hand, raising their prices cautiously, on the other hand, handing out lucky draws of winning a car (Benz). So they raise price and collect up to additional $100k per unit (from raised price) over say 20 units = $2m additional profit at the expense of one car say $180k. This is their back up plan. Market is still filled with demands waiting and watching and might just succumb to such promotional gimmicks... especially in OCR.

i tink developers still optismistic on ocr based on their land bidding pattern

ccr....only pockets of ccr r moving in fact.....MM ccr....lol