Senior
been busy last 2 days .. only now catching up on the forumOriginally Posted by mantrix
Teddy...the lengths you go to...LOL
Cheers lah take it easy
just trying to follow the conversation
didnt you ask him to find a landed for below 500 psf ?
so he showed you lor ...
then why now you ask him to take it easy ?
Exalted
show transaction and showing cheap landed lobang is different mah
Junior
sorry totally OT, but....
COE cat B 72k, cat E 76k !
Global recession is coming....
Cheap transaction transacted in Dec 2010 and now still in Dec 2010, work harder still can find wah. Want cheap lobang have to go find oneself, expect people to work & find for them for free? Ask them to go fly kite!
Go for Smallest Unit
Can bid and trade coe, quick 10k to 20ksorry totally OT, but....
COE cat B 72k, cat E 76k !
Junior
from this article posted by Mr Funny,
Landed homes' capital values rise faster than apartments, condos
sorry don't know how to post picture.
For non-landed properties
Non-prime leasehold, psf from 2006 Q4 to 2010 Q4 increase from 500 to 700psf
Prime freehold, psf from 2006 Q4 to 2010 Q4 increase from 1000 to 1500psf
Luxury psf from 2006 Q4 to 2010 Q4 increase from 1700 to 2600psf.
same for landed properties, prime FH increase more and faster rate than non-prime FH.
Would Stalingrad, Wild Falcon (pro OCR) and Teddybear (pro CCR) care to comment?
the chart seems to say it all - Prime is winner for capital appreciation.
Bricks & Mortar
If have such lobang, sure grab and keep quiet, waiting to laugh all the way to the Bank!Cheap transaction transacted in Dec 2010 and now still in Dec 2010, work harder still can find wah. Want cheap lobang have to go find oneself, expect people to work & find for them for free? Ask them to go fly kite!
Junior
Well, Devilplate offers to pay 2% commission for firesale properties.
that is $40k commission for a $2mil landed.
Win-win situation for Devilplate and Teddybear.
Teddybear know of lobang, but don't believe in OCR, so give opportunity to buy cheap landed OCR to Devilplate. Devilplate pay 1% finder fee to Teddybear and 1% commission to property agent.
Junior
Money
HOME > MONEY > STORY
Dec 25, 2010
LOOK BACK AT 2010
Property makes a comeback
Activity-filled year marked by record prices and sales volumes, then cooling measures
By Esther Teo and Cheryl Lim
An artist's impression of Austville Residences, a 540-unit executive condo next to Punggol Park, expected to be launched by next month. -- PHOTO: UNITED ENGINEER BT FILE PHOTO
THE property market turned in a very lively year, to say the least, with record prices and sales volumes and then the dousing effects of the Government's latest round of cooling measures.
It was also a year of comebacks, with executive condominiums (ECs) staging a return after a five-year absence. Collective sales rebounded strongly and are poised for an even bigger comeback next year, whetting the appetite of developers eager to plump up land banks.
After 12 months chock-full of surprises, however, more flux might be in store next year with some market watchers predicting a possible round of government intervention to cool the still buoyant market.
This follows three sets of cooling measures unveiled in September last year, and then in February and August this year, as private home prices eclipsed the previous 1996 peak in the second quarter.
In fact, home prices were already up 14.4 per cent in the first nine months of this year according to Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) data, with new private home sales volumes rocketing to an all-time high of 15,025 units as at last month.
What's in store for 2011
EXPERTS say the overall outlook for the property market remains strong.
Despite recent government moves, real estate as an asset class remains appealing, having proven its resilience during the global financial crisis, they added.
Interest rates are rock bottom - setting the stage for even cheaper home loans and other carrots to lure buyers. Experts added that these low rates are likely to be sustained into the coming year, which will also witness more foreign buying interest diverted here owing to stringent property curbs in the region.
Up-and-coming districts to watch include Tanjong Pagar, given the Government's goal of rejuvenating the area to create a vibrant place to 'live, work and play'.
The prime districts of 9, 10 and 11 are also worth watching as prime freehold land is very scarce. New high-end launches include CapitaLand's The Nassim, Wing Tai's Le Nouvel Ardmore and City Developments' former Lucky Tower in Grange Road.
Mass market homes: Saturated
EXPERTS expect prices of mass market homes to plateau or even dip somewhat in a slight correction in the coming year. Some say this is the only segment here close to saturation point, and which might therefore face a slip in prices.
The bumper supply of mostly suburban land sites in the government land sales (GLS) programme is likely to replenish developers' land banks and meet consumer demand, taking the heat off the segment and stalling any further price gains.
The GLS for the first half of next year is expected to yield about 14,310 new homes, an even larger offering than the release of residential land in the second half of this year, which was able to yield up to 13,905 homes - itself a record.
Kim Eng property analyst Ooi Yi Tung said that the ample supply of suburban land is a clear indication of the Government's intentions and will discourage overly aggressive bids by developers that could eventually mean higher prices.
He does not expect prices to rise much more, and in fact sees a downward correction in prices of about 5 per cent next year.
Mid- to high-end homes: Star performers
MOVING upmarket, however, it is a different story. The mid- to high-end segments are expected to be the star performers among non-landed homes as Singapore steps up its transformation into a cosmopolitan global city. Both segments are set to gain 5 per cent to 10 per cent next year.
Mr Png Poh Soon, Knight Frank head of research and consultancy, said most buyers in the mid- to upper-tier market are young local professionals in their 30s as well as foreign buyers.
'The solid economy and growing financial sector will bring in foreign interest and provide income support for locals. (These), combined with high liquidity, low interest rates and rising employment, will sustain demand and prices.'
Credo Real Estate managing director Karamjit Singh said the segment is often dependent on wealthy locals - both Singaporeans and permanent residents (PRs). With Singapore's economy powering ahead and creating wealth, these homes are likely to remain firmly supported.
Kim Eng's Mr Ooi expects high-end home prices to gain by 10 per cent next year, while mid-level homes are set to enjoy spillover effects and rise 5 per cent in price.
Luxury homes: Might finally surpass peak
LUXURY homes are likely to see price gains of between 5 per cent and 8 per cent, supported by the expansion of the financial sector and Singapore's growing status as a financial hub in the region.
The segment - which depends largely on foreign buyers - has yet to surpass its 2007 peak both in terms of prices and volumes.
Experts said, however, that with more property cooling measures being introduced in economies such as mainland China and Hong Kong, some investors are likely to look here instead.
Ms Phylicia Ang, Savills Singapore's executive director of residential sales, added: 'The external demand together with the optimism surrounding the integrated resorts and robust economic recovery should continue to lend support to the private residential market.'
There is also a possibility of luxury home prices - currently 6.3 per cent below their 2007 peak - regaining this high point by the end of next year, she added.
Landed: Moderated price growth
LANDED home prices surged by 24 per cent in the first nine months of this year, according to URA data.
Experts said, however, that despite the limited supply of these homes, price gains are likely to moderate as buyers adjust to new highs. CB Richard Ellis' data shows average landed home prices was up by almost 34 per cent compared to 2007's peak.
Mr Ong Kah Seng, senior manager of Asia-Pacific research at Cushman & Wakefield, expects positive demand to continue into next year but at a moderated pace of 3 per cent per quarter.
Knight Frank's Mr Png said that the good class bungalow segment - which notched up price jumps of more than 30 per cent - can expect to post further 10 per cent to 15 per cent price gains next year.
RealStar Premier Property managing director William Wong estimated that prices in prime locations such as the Tanglin neighbourhood could hit a record $2,000 per sq ft (psf) - eclipsing the current record of $1,899 psf set in 2007 for a Nassim Road bungalow.
Fresh anti-speculation steps may be taken
Collective sales are back - with $4b-6b expected in 2011
THIS year also saw a turnaround in the collective sale market, with strong developer interest returning and owners eager to sell as property prices soared.
Collective sale activity this year was healthy with 32 sales sealed, worth a total of $1.6 billion - a striking change from last year, when the $100.8 million Dragon Mansion sale was the only deal.
Larger deals are also at hand with former HUDC estate Pine Grove, Tulip Garden and Hawaii Towers just some of the mega collective sales, each of more than $600 million, that have entered the market or are expected to.
Credo's Mr Singh said that these are just 'the tip of the iceberg' with more deals of more than $100 million expected next year. He expects a total of between $4 billion and $6 billion in collective sales to be sealed next year.
Mr Steven Ming, Savills executive director of investment, said that collective sale sites priced under $200 million are likely to be favoured as small to mid-sized developers that lack the capacity to undertake large-scale developments shy away from GLS tenders, turning to the collective sales market instead.
'Freehold sites that are located in the prime areas such as districts 9, 10, 11 and 15 will be favoured as developers seek to landbank in locations where there could be limited redevelopment land purchase opportunities. Well-located commercial sites for an office or retail development will also be of interest,' he added.
Successful collective sales are also expected to further buoy the landed homes market as home owners look for a new and upgraded asset to park their cash.
Executive condominiums (ECs)
AFTER a hiatus of five years, since La Casa in Woodlands, ECs are back with a vengeance. Launches are coming fast and furious, with three since October and another - the 540-unit Austville Residences next to Punggol Park - by next month.
Demand from the so-called sandwich class - households earning $8,000 to $10,000 a month - has been strong, with EC sales accounting for almost 20 per cent of the 3,678 new homes sold in October and last month.
More EC launches are also on the cards, with the GLS programme in the first half of next year offering four more EC sites - in Tampines, Chua Chu Kang, Punggol and Upper Serangoon - leaving home buyers spoilt for choice.
Experts, however, caution that although the initial launches have been well-received, buyers might start getting choosier in their purchases, with well-located ECs such as those near MRT stations likely to pull ahead.
Another round of measures?
SURGING private homes sales, especially a higher-than-expected 1,909 new units sold last month, have also raised red flags, with some experts predicting a fresh round of finely tuned cooling measures.
Ms Tay Huey Ying, associate director of research and consultancy at Colliers International, described the rocketing sales figures as quite 'worrying'.
Jones Lang LaSalle's head of research for South-east Asia, Dr Chua Yang Liang, said the growing numbers of overseas buyers and investors are clouding the picture and making it difficult to tell if sales activity is influenced by foreign or local policies.
He added, however, that although Singapore has increasingly seen more intervention in the property segment, overtly aggressive policies are unlikely as they could damage the market and so hit economic growth.
If measures are taken, the Government is likely to favour a 'softer' approach, allowing the market space to correct itself, he said.
Steps that analysts have speculated the Government could take include further lowering the ratio of a property's value that a borrower may obtain as a mortgage on second and third mortgages, ortightening Central Provident Fund withdrawal limits.
Sorry for the long post. More debates coming
Junior
The problem with all these property experts is, they lack critical thinking skills and that is why they have been consistently wrong. Their preference for 9,10,11 is or luxury is not supported by any fundamentals other than:-
1) Foreign hot speculative money is coming - seriously? Foreign hot money so keen on something with pathetic 5%-8% potential upside as predicted? No hot money will come for 5% upside - it's pathetic.
2) It has not reached previous peak (which is ridulous because there is no law of physics that says Orchard Residence should exceed previous peak of $5200psf.).
3) Suburban oversupply - 9,10,11 is only 3 small districts. There are 25 other districts over 700sqkm. So even if there are say annual supply of 10k units spread across the entire country with 25 districts, is it seriously an oversupply? Perhaps one should look at the completion per sqkm in each district to put everything on the same denominator and see which district has the greatest oversupply?
And I don't see how any district can keeping "huating" while others crash. And I really wished for the day these experts can come up with more convincing and compelling reasons other than (i) Foreign hot money will make a bigger bubble in 9,10,11 (ii) Must exceed previous peak. And looking at the TOP projects in Orchard, I don't think they will hit >$5000psf any time soon, as predicted by this JLL "Chua"expert in 2007 (why is he still being interviewed when he has no credibility?). Many of the record breaking deals are fluke in the first place - transaction was not completed.
And I really think this is not a good time to enter the market - whatever district, esp new launches. There might be value in resale though.
Junior
1) actually no need to doubt infux of $$$ into Asia. Reports show $2b flowing into Asia daily. The best proof is strong stock mkt rally n property mkt rally in 2010.
2)As for 10% returns Psf , I think it's equlivant to almost 50% returns on your downplayment. Good enough for me, not including other cost. 10% rally a year over 2 years will make most of us huat big time.
2011 seems likely to see property mkt having moderate growth. Qns is mid segment/CCR or OCR
Junior
Hot money flowing to Asia - no doubt. But question is how much is flowing to SINGAPORE high-end property - and assuming like what experts say, foreigners buying "luxury" property don't take leverage, then a 5%-8% return seems pathetic. Honestly, A 5%-10% potential upside is NOT worth the risk of taking so much leverage. Remember, if the upside expectation is so low, it also means it can swing to a 5%-10% downside as well - and then your 50% return becomes 50% loss. Frankly, I wouldn't bother with 5%, even though leveage can potential bring in up to 25% return. Remember leverage cuts both way. And don't forget there are transaction costs as well. Your 5-10% gain can be wiped out completely.
Newbie
There is definitely profit to be made, but the bank cuts a big share because of the interest for the monthly installments.
Junior
U r not wrg in your argument. Out of the min 600b printed, prob 20-30% with outflow into the region, into different asset class. There is no double that the $$$ is definitely coming, n I suspect the govt want those $$$ to come. This can be deduced from the strategies taken so far, increase currency exchange n keep interest rate low.
Well, if it's 5% b4 cost it's not worth the effort. 3 years b4 now, can u imagine jurong selling at 1050psf? Who knows, u cannot use peak in 1997 n 2007 as a comparison. There wasn't as much ppple here then, n there wasn't 2 casino.( that changed everything). As I always say, we are after all in unchartered waters.
Gentleman, Mai ting le shou. When water comes in, all boat will float. Qns is, have u bought a ticket n mount the boat.
Junior
Luxury home prices hit new high
Posted by luxuryasiahome on January 4, 2011 ·
A jump of interest in high-end luxury homes pushed prices in the segment, which has underperformed the rest of the market over the last two years, to a fresh all-time high in Q4 2010.
In the rest of the market, prices of private homes as well as HDB resale flats grew more slowly in the fourth quarter compared to the first three quarters of last year.
Flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) show that overall private housing prices edged up 2.7 per cent in Q4 to a fresh record high.
Private home prices in Singapore first surpassed the former all-time peak achieved in 1996 in Q2 2010, and then continued to inch upwards in Q3 and Q4. For the whole of 2010, prices climbed 17.6 per cent.
But the gain in fourth-quarter prices was the smallest in six quarters, URA’s data shows.
The high-end market was an exception. Non-landed home prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) micro-market, which includes the prime districts Marina Bay and Sentosa Cove, rose 2.3 per cent in Q4, faster than the 1.6 per cent growth seen in Q3.
This pushed luxury home prices to a new all-time high, outstripping the previous peak in Q1 2008.
In contrast, the price index for Rest of Central Region (RCR) rose by 1.7 per cent in Q4, down from 2.3 per cent in Q3. And in the Outside Central Region or OCR (where suburban condos are located), prices climbed 1.6 per cent in Q4 after increasing 2.2 per cent in Q3.
Experts attributed the slowdown in price growth in the RCR and OCR areas to resistance from buyers for increasingly expensive projects.
Price growth in the CCR region, by contrast, rose on the back of the prevailing strong economy and low interest rates, which once again enticed foreign investors to pick up luxury homes in Singapore.
‘In 2010, much of the activity was focused on the mass and mid-market segments,’ said Joseph Tan, CBRE’s executive director for residential. ‘Foreigners stayed away, thinking that the lack of transaction activity in the high-end segment would lead to a fall in prices and allow them to buy the properties for less.’
But since most high-end home owners proved to have ‘holding power’, the anticipated fall in luxury home prices did not occur and foreign buyers are slowly returning to the luxury market, Mr Tan said.
The number of foreign home buyers rose by 14 per cent in 2010 compared to 2009, said Knight Frank’s head of consultancy & research Png Poh Soon.
‘The tightened regulations in Hong Kong and aggressive anti-speculation rules in China caused some investors to shy away from those markets and directed them to Singapore,’ Mr Png said. ‘High net worth foreign buyers would definitely consider the Singapore property market to park their money.’
Experts also noted that while the latest round of government cooling measures introduced on Aug 30 have not dampened transaction volumes, they appear to have at least moderated price growth. A record 15,500-16,500 new private homes are estimated to have been sold in 2010, despite demand-side and supply-side measures introduced periodically throughout the year.
CBRE’s Mr Tan said that transaction volumes were still high in 2010 as many potential buyers are still out looking for units.
However the price growth has slowed as these buyers – especially those in the mass-market segment – are sticking to a budget.
Looking ahead, growth in private home prices may slow to anywhere between 3 per cent and 10 per cent in 2011, experts predicted.
But most are more bullish on luxury home prices, which could climb by up to 15 per cent this year.
In the mass-market, the ample supply of new homes coming onstream from the 2010 Government Land Sales programme should help to keep price growth to less than 5 per cent, experts said.
Junior
As i last posted to DP, i also like to throw the qn to bros here. where would u rather put your $$$? As price converage, as most bro here observed.... which is your choice? OCR vs CCR (both near mrt)
Originally Posted by devilplate
I tink 860 sqft, 1.08mil for 13th flr, Tennery
d'leedon #03-43 840sqft $1,251,600 $1,491 or the above ?
Exalted
U mistaken.... Lol...
Junior
sorry if i didnt not quote correctly. i think u commented that in this case d'Leedon seems like a better buy although u prefer 14th floor n above.
I am just very curious on all the talk about CCR vs OCR on why so many pple are buying OCR at such price lvl, so i throw in an real life example to everyone for a comparison and poll their opinion.
2010 was a great year for OCR. So "as the water comes in", CCR property is set to rise this year. The report(4th Jan) i posted above is a prove that things are moving in CCR.
PS: I am supporting CCR for yr 2011, CCR price broadly might see 7-10% growth. i also hope OCR continue to see substainable growth.
Senior
I just wonder, whilst we have been furiously delineating the difference between CCR and OCR, foreigners from bigger countries might be looking at Singapore as one CCR because this is such a tiny island?? With the exception of maybe a few locations that offer prestige differentiation, such as sentosa, nassim and marina bay.
Emeritus Senior
You hit the nail on the spot. That is what I have been saying given the sentiment from all my friends from china, europe and australia.
Junior
this is true as the mass market condos which I own have quite a number of owners from China. They dress like locals but when they talk, straight away you know they are not native.
Senior
With a more comprehensive mrt system to be completed in the next decade, the lines will be blurred further. Everyone can then say they live 15mins away from town. Last time people compared direct buses to town. Next time they'll be comparing who's direct lines are faster. But it won't be as bad as waiting to change buses. I hated waiting to change buses on a hot day.
Global recession is coming....
Isn't this the same if we look at London? The whole of London city is about same size as Singapore. Based on such reasoning, we should see little price difference between London Zone 1 and zone 4, furthermore Zone 1 fully built-up and no further development potential (already fully built-up for many many years now - as somebody puts it that no further development potential means no future price upside). However, over the past 20 years, prices of Zone 1 has pulled ahead from a difference of 3x to 6-10x that of Zone 4! Will Singapore go the same 20 years from now as we are developing while London has fully developed (Singapore now just like London 20 years ago?).
Junior
Those OCR supporters, how does one account for discrepancies in property prices in HK, London, New York, Tokyo prime areas and those further away?
Their MRT systems are comparable or even better than Singapore.
Newbie
so much discussion on CCR vs OCR...
anyone stand for RCR pls
actually i see CCR always got developments, isnt those shopping centers in orchard keep getting renovated/renew and expanded ? Plaza sing going to expand again... 313, ion, orchard central are new... Liat tower got new flood control systemI think the commercial owners of CCR will continue to upgrade to keep themselves ahead.
Junior
RCR is the sandwich classso much discussion on CCR vs OCR...
anyone stand for RCR pls
actually i see CCR always got developments, isnt those shopping centers in orchard keep getting renovated/renew and expanded ? Plaza sing going to expand again... 313, ion, orchard central are new... Liat tower got new flood control systemnobody pay attention to the middle class, the middle child etc.
Junior
Sorry. The "upgraded" malls are WORSE. They ended up carrying the same things and so cookie-cutter and every mall has (i) the same WORST foodcourts in Singapore (ii) The same Mango, Zara and Topshop. Unimpressed.
so much discussion on CCR vs OCR...
anyone stand for RCR pls
actually i see CCR always got developments, isnt those shopping centers in orchard keep getting renovated/renew and expanded ? Plaza sing going to expand again... 313, ion, orchard central are new... Liat tower got new flood control system
Junior
My RCR property is the star-performer leh. I think most will lump RCR with OCR in their discussion bah. CCR is strictly 9,10,11,1,2.
RCR is the sandwich class
Exalted
i prefer low end maxwell food ctr...cheap and good....foodcourts so ex and taste awful.....hehe.....but smtimes hot and sweaty like anything....the fish porridge always no chance to eat....nid patience to q
Exalted
teddybear CCR strictly only inner core 9,10,11.....not substandard 9,10,11
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