Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 30 of 43

Thread: Balancing act with constant fine-tuning

  1. #1
    mr funny is offline Any complaints please PM me
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    8,129

    Default Balancing act with constant fine-tuning

    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...07362,00.html?

    Published October 7, 2010

    Balancing act with constant fine-tuning

    The govt has stepped in many times to restore sanity to the housing market here

    By EMILYN YAP


    BT looks at some of the major rules imposed on the Singapore public and private housing markets in the past 30 years and their impact.

    1980-1989: Lowering restrictions

    The 1980s marked the creation and blossoming of the resale flat market. In 1989, the government opened the market to permanent residents (PRs), removed income ceilings for resale flat buyers and allowed resale flat owners to also buy private homes for investment while still living in their public flats.

    'We are moving public housing conditions more and more towards private sector practices,' then national development minister S Dhanabalan was reported as saying.

    1990-1995: More liberalisation

    After the first Gulf War, pent-up demand and the relaxation of more government measures lifted property prices.

    In 1991, singles aged 35 and over were allowed to buy resale flats, though they were limited to one- to three-room units outside popular estates in the south.

    HDB also let those who bought public flats direct from the board invest in private property. They should have lived in their flats at least five years and had to stay in them after the private property purchase.

    From 1993, for resale flats, HDB began granting loans of up to 80 per cent of the flats' valuation or sale price, whichever was lower. It previously offered loans of up to 80 per cent of sale prices in 1984 - a lower benchmark.

    The CPF Board also allowed buyers to use CPF savings for interest payments on mortgage loans, on top of principal payments.

    In 1995, HDB brought flat valuations closer to transacted prices, effectively allowing buyers to take larger HDB mortgage loans.

    The HDB resale price index hit 101.9 in Q4 1995 - more than triple the 33.6 in Q1 1990. The Urban Redevelopment Authority Private Residential Price Index more than doubled - to 164.9 in Q4 1995 from 57.2 in Q1 1990.

    1996-2000: Market chill

    The government introduced measures to cool the property market in 1996. Among these was a tax on gains from selling property within three years of purchase; additional stamp duty payable by sellers of residential property within three years of purchase; an 80 per cent financing limit on mortgage loans; and a ban on foreigners taking Singapore-dollar loans to buy homes.

    In 1997, HDB limited flat buyers to only two subsidised mortgage loans. It also started assessing buyers' creditworthiness, so monthly instalments would not exceed 40 per cent of their monthly income.

    Later that year, it raised resale levies and extended the time bar to 10 years from five for those who wanted to buy a second public flat direct from the board.

    Aspiring upgraders also had to live in their public flats for five years before they could book private homes. Previously, they were allowed to book in advance uncompleted private homes due to be completed in or after the fifth year.

    Tighter rules coincided with the start of the Asian financial crisis in 1997. The government later suspended the stamp duty imposed on sellers and introduced several other measures to support the market.

    Still, the URA Residential Price Index slumped 45 per cent from its peak in Q2 1996 to end-1998. And the HDB Resale Price Index plunged 27 per cent from its peak in Q4 1996.

    2000-2009: Coping with volatility

    The balancing act has become even tougher for the government in the past decade as the property market went through several cycles.

    There was a short recovery from 1999-2000 as the economy improved and buyers returned to secure properties at low prices. But the market soon succumbed to a quick succession of global problems: the dotcom bust, the Sept 11 terrorist attacks, the Iraq War, and Sars.

    The government introduced more supply and demand-side measures to support the market. For instance, in 2001 it lifted the capital gains tax imposed on property. The next year, it allowed buyers to use CPF savings to pay 10 per cent of the initial downpayment for private property.

    HDB also allowed owners of non-subsidised resale flats bought with a bank loan to sell them after a minimum occupation period (MOP) of just one year, down from 2.5 years.

    More critical changes happened in 2005. The government lifted the loan-to- value (LTV) limit for housing loans to 90 per cent from 80 per cent and allowed non-related singles to use their CPF savings to buy private property.

    These measures, coupled with economic growth, finally lifted the property market out of its gloom. Between 2005 and 2007, the URA Residential Price Index soared 49 per cent and the HDB Resale Price Index rose 14 per cent.

    But it wasn't long before the government had to step in to curb sharp rises in prices. It withdrew a concession allowing property buyers to defer stamp duty payment in 2006, and scrapped the deferred payment scheme in 2007.

    The onset of the global financial crisis led to a short but sharp slide in private home prices. But the resale flat market chugged along nicely, and prices kept rising, save for a quarter in 2009. As private property became more affordable and interest rates stayed low, HDB upgraders sprang into action, snapping up mass-market homes and driving prices up. Speculators joined in the buying mania.

    Worried that rising interest rates and a possible economic slowdown would saddle buyers with excessive debt, the government began introducing cooling measures in 2009 - by scrapping the interest absorption scheme, for example.

    2010: more tightening

    More policy tightening came early this year. Similar to what happened in 1996, the government imposed a stamp duty on those who sell properties within a year of buying them. It also reversed older policies, cutting the LTV limit back to 80 per cent and raising the MOP for non-subsidised resale flats to three years.

    More measures were introduced in September. Among these, the government extended the holding period for the seller's stamp duty to three years. And it cut the LTV limit to 70 per cent for those with outstanding home loans.

    It also required private property owners who buy non-subsidised HDB flats to sell their private property within six months of the purchase - regardless of whether that property is here or abroad. Non-subsidised flat owners have to stay at least five years in their units before they can buy private property.

  2. #2
    mr funny is offline Any complaints please PM me
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    8,129

    Default


  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    44

    Default

    What about ruling to allow foreigners to buy condos in around 2005? You can see the property prices go up from then.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    1,823

    Default 3 years?

    From 1995 to 1998, it was about 3 years for the downturn. Will there be another 3 years down turn this time (that is bottom at around 2013)?
    I've called a few agents for landed, they are still extremely busy over the weekend. So people are still buying.

    Thanks,
    Richard

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    9,279

    Default

    yes, landed is still hot. but if ppty prices do indeed go down, landed won't be spared, just a lag i suppose?


    Quote Originally Posted by richwang
    From 1995 to 1998, it was about 3 years for the downturn. Will there be another 3 years down turn this time (that is bottom at around 2013)?
    I've called a few agents for landed, they are still extremely busy over the weekend. So people are still buying.

    Thanks,
    Richard

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    15,307

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by richwang
    From 1995 to 1998, it was about 3 years for the downturn. Will there be another 3 years down turn this time (that is bottom at around 2013)?
    I've called a few agents for landed, they are still extremely busy over the weekend. So people are still buying.

    Thanks,
    Richard
    downturn 95-98 meh?

    tot from mid 96???

    y u seems so bothered and concerned about downturn blah blah....lol

    btw, i nvr noticed any firesales in the mass market segment....or yet...lol

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    1,823

    Default Short Biased

    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    downturn 95-98 meh?

    tot from mid 96???

    y u seems so bothered and concerned about downturn blah blah....lol

    btw, i nvr noticed any firesales in the mass market segment....or yet...lol
    Sorry to be short biased. I am sitting next to the whole Risk Management team. Their main job is to find out where is the next big down and try to hedge it. The team actually expands during financial crisis. I am not part of that team, but I am influenced by them. I hope this forum will accept a balanced view.

    Thanks,
    Richard

  8. #8
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    9,279

    Default

    firesales won't be so soon one lah. if any, i still feel it is the going to TOP projects (sold in 2007) which are neither here nor there (my favourite example Duchess Residences as usual ).


    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    downturn 95-98 meh?

    tot from mid 96???

    y u seems so bothered and concerned about downturn blah blah....lol

    btw, i nvr noticed any firesales in the mass market segment....or yet...lol

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    15,307

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by richwang
    Sorry to be short biased. I am sitting next to the whole Risk Management team. Their main job is to find out where is the next big down and try to hedge it. The team actually expands during financial crisis. I am not part of that team, but I am influenced by them. I hope this forum will accept a balanced view.

    Thanks,
    Richard
    shd monitor stocks mah....

    make $ from shorting stocks first...den buy back from stocks....den cash out some to buy ppty.....in the past always like dat....so i dun understand y there is a need to monitor ppty prices??

  10. #10
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    9,279

    Default

    your view is most welcomed. do let us know when they see the downturn becoming reality. so is the team expanding yet?


    Quote Originally Posted by richwang
    Sorry to be short biased. I am sitting next to the whole Risk Management team. Their main job is to find out where is the next big down and try to hedge it. The team actually expands during financial crisis. I am not part of that team, but I am influenced by them. I hope this forum will accept a balanced view.

    Thanks,
    Richard

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    15,307

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    firesales won't be so soon one lah. if any, i still feel it is the going to TOP projects (sold in 2007) which are neither here nor there (my favourite example Duchess Residences as usual ).
    bro...do u noe GLP IPO which banks can i apply via?? i read smwhr public offering on 11oct rite?

    how come today ST nothing leh...search internet also nothing

  12. #12
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    9,279

    Default

    isn't that what Richard has done? short genting?

    but i noticed recent cycles, can't really do that since Q2 2007. ppty has been moving in line or even ahead of stocks when they rise! so this strategy didn't really work in recent years.

    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    shd monitor stocks mah....

    make $ from shorting stocks first...den buy back from stocks....den cash out some to buy ppty.....in the past always like dat....so i dun understand y there is a need to monitor ppty prices??

  13. #13
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    9,279

    Default

    shouldn't it be available on all the local bank ATMs?

    not sure if u will be disappointed after applying for 1000 lots and give u a few miserable lots hehehe.

    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    bro...do u noe GLP IPO which banks can i apply via?? i read smwhr public offering on 11oct rite?

    how come today ST nothing leh...search internet also nothing

  14. #14
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    9,279

    Default

    my stockbroker friend say not yet available lah, GLP. too gan jiong liao u hahaha. anyway not first come first serve mah.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    15,307

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    isn't that what Richard has done? short genting?

    but i noticed recent cycles, can't really do that since Q2 2007. ppty has been moving in line or even ahead of stocks when they rise! so this strategy didn't really work in recent years.
    if u really wana catch the bottom of the ppty cycle....cannot lor...

    but, i still manage to do it last yr....heavily vested on stocks when sti started to recover from 14xxpts and break 1700pts ...furthermore, u got around 3mths sales completion period to play with

    BUT....ppty really catching up FAST with stocks last yr....tats y i missed my sky@11....

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    1,823

    Default Long now

    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    shd monitor stocks mah....

    make $ from shorting stocks first...den buy back from stocks....den cash out some to buy ppty.....in the past always like dat....so i dun understand y there is a need to monitor ppty prices??
    I've closed most of my Genting "short" positions - making a loss.
    Just bought some Golden Argiculture Call warrents - so I am long now.
    To be honest, I am very uncomfortable with the long position. If you pay a visit to stock broking firm, (I always go there to make payment), you will see lots of retail players there. It is very different from the rebound last March.
    The only reason I am going long is US seems to print lots of money, and I need to hedge the risk.

    I've watched a few stock forum, but didn't participant. Frankly the member quality here is MUCH better.

    Thanks,
    Richard

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    15,307

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    my stockbroker friend say not yet available lah, GLP. too gan jiong liao u hahaha. anyway not first come first serve mah.
    free kopi $$ rite??

    btw, all local banks rite? DBS confirm can apply? coz i nid to tx some $ wor

  18. #18
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    9,279

    Default

    last time 1999 stocks go first, then ppty. then during the slump was bestest 2003 stocks rallied till 2005/06 ppty hardly moved. 09 too fast lor, i was in same situation as u, that's why missed buying landed at bottom too. maybe there will come a time when it reverts back to "normal". oh well, nobody knows what's normal these days.

    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    if u really wana catch the bottom of the ppty cycle....cannot lor...

    but, i still manage to do it last yr....heavily vested on stocks when sti started to recover from 14xxpts and break 1700pts ...furthermore, u got around 3mths sales completion period to play with

    BUT....ppty really catching up FAST with stocks last yr....tats y i missed my sky@11....

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    15,307

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by richwang
    I've closed most of my Genting "short" positions - making a loss.
    Just bought some Golden Argiculture Call warrents - so I am long now.
    To be honest, I am very uncomfortable with the long position. If you pay a visit to stock broking firm, (I always go there to make payment), you will see lots of retail players there. It is very different from the rebound last March.
    The only reason I am going long is US seems to print lots of money, and I need to hedge the risk.

    I've watched a few stock forum, but didn't participant. Frankly the member quality here is MUCH better.

    Thanks,
    Richard
    i still got some gol agri....but quite boring...doesnt seem to hit 70cts one....always lose gas after hitting 60cts and go back to 5xcts...but i played few rds la...gd enuff for kopi $

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    1,823

    Default Good News

    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    your view is most welcomed. do let us know when they see the downturn becoming reality. so is the team expanding yet?
    I must bring you the good news then: they have a head count freeze. Maybe they will be talking about cutting staff soon.

    By the way, you cannot "forecast" the crisis by looking at the number of Risk Management staff. They will only expand AFTER the crisis has started.

    Thanks,
    Richard

  21. #21
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    15,307

    Default

    do u believe that STI should break 3800pts(last peak) before next downturn?

    all the previous cycles say so...BUT well...

  22. #22
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    9,279

    Default

    hahaha...u must have landed on those punter forums. they are there to make small contra money, not "invest" for even a slightly longer term to make better returns. then again, i have never seen a stock forum with less punter noises than investors (who dun really look at the stocks they are holdings so frequently, let alone participate in a forum).

    but then i thought lots of retail players camping at stock broking firms is supposed to be a contrarian sign?

    anyway, i prefer to hedge by going long in the lowest risk way, buying shares in a stockbroking firm.


    Quote Originally Posted by richwang
    I've closed most of my Genting "short" positions - making a loss.
    Just bought some Golden Argiculture Call warrents - so I am long now.
    To be honest, I am very uncomfortable with the long position. If you pay a visit to stock broking firm, (I always go there to make payment), you will see lots of retail players there. It is very different from the rebound last March.
    The only reason I am going long is US seems to print lots of money, and I need to hedge the risk.

    I've watched a few stock forum, but didn't participant. Frankly the member quality here is MUCH better.

    Thanks,
    Richard

  23. #23
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    9,279

    Default

    i'm a bargain hunter, why is this good news to me?

    i most definitely prefer putting more money into stocks than to ppty at this point.

    Quote Originally Posted by richwang
    I must bring you the good news then: they have a head count freeze. Maybe they will be talking about cutting staff soon.

    By the way, you cannot "forecast" the crisis by looking at the number of Risk Management staff. They will only expand AFTER the crisis has started.

    Thanks,
    Richard

  24. #24
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    15,307

    Default

    tat time richwang shd have shorted genting shares instead of putting duno wat warrants and he wud have make soem kopi $$....i nvr play warrant b4

  25. #25
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    15,307

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    hahaha...u must have landed on those punter forums. they are there to make small contra money, not "invest" for even a slightly longer term to make better returns. then again, i have never seen a stock forum with less punter noises than investors (who dun really look at the stocks they are holdings so frequently, let alone participate in a forum).
    it is tough not to monitor stocks leh....haha

    but i am trying my best not to enter any trade during the day....jus bio bio day time and no action lor

  26. #26
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    9,279

    Default

    i m not sure leh. but if DBS cannot apply then it will be one big embarrassment rite?

    i think if sti hits 3800 we can think about if the chart becomes a double top or not.

    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    free kopi $$ rite??

    btw, all local banks rite? DBS confirm can apply? coz i nid to tx some $ wor

  27. #27
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    15,307

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    i m not sure leh. but if DBS cannot apply then it will be one big embarrassment rite?

    i think if sti hits 3800 we can think about if the chart becomes a double top or not.
    wat u mean by double top?

  28. #28
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    9,279

    Default

    when the previous top is tested and fails. but of course, we can't tell until it fails (bearish signal). anyway, way too early days to talk about that now, haven't even cleared 3200.

    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    wat u mean by double top?

  29. #29
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    15,307

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    when the previous top is tested and fails. but of course, we can't tell until it fails (bearish signal). anyway, way too early days to talk about that now, haven't even cleared 3200.
    hmmm...so will PPI double top? lol

  30. #30
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    9,279

    Default

    as was discussed in other threads previously, i m not in favour of using technical analysis for ppty indices but there are others who favour such an approach.

    anyway, if anything, the PPI has "broken out of resistance", more of a bullish sign. if its going to be anything close to a double top, it will need to fall for a few quarters consecutively starting from Q4.



    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    hmmm...so will PPI double top? lol

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 13
    -: 18-09-16, 22:47
  2. Balancing act with land sales
    By reporter2 in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 1
    -: 13-06-16, 03:34
  3. URA fine-tuning rules for developers after feedback
    By mr funny in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 20
    -: 12-08-11, 21:22
  4. En bloc blues: A child depressed because of constant moving
    By mr funny in forum En Bloc Discussion and News
    Replies: 0
    -: 25-06-07, 06:22
  5. A balancing act on property prices
    By mr funny in forum HDB, EC, commercial and industrial property discussion
    Replies: 0
    -: 20-06-07, 04:30

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •