Property analysts say muted property market situation is temporary

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...350552/1/.html

Property analysts say muted property market situation is temporary

By Ng Baoying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 28 May 2008 2209 hrs


SINGAPORE: Investors have been cautious about the property sector amid expectations that the muted residential property market will weaken further. However, some property consultants are taking a slightly more positive stance, saying that this situation is temporary.

Transaction volumes for private homes have been thin, with developers holding back launches or cutting prices. And recently, there have been a slew of bearish reports from the likes of JP Morgan and Nomura, which are further dampening sentiment.

They said that private home prices could drop by as much as 35 per cent in the upper-end segments of the private residential property market by 2010 due to excess supply and poor sentiment.

They argue that marginal speculative sellers are likely to drive prices lower amid low transaction volumes and higher unsold pre-sale inventories.

Lower rental expectations and a large increase in supply are also seen compounding the situation in the longer term. Some also said the middle and low-end segments will not be spared.

But there are some property consultants who said that while things are slow now, dynamics will change going forward.

While the consensus view is that prices will continue to remain under pressure for the rest of the year and into 2009, some consultants said that the main reasons for falling prices are external.

Chua Chor Hoon, Senior Director, Research, DTZ Debenham Tie Leung, said: "It's mainly the external factor, because of what's happening in US, so sentiments are really weak now.

"(It's also) partly because prices have gone up quite a lot last year - especially after the deferred payment scheme has been removed that made buyers more cautious. It's a combination of factors, but I believe it's the US economy that has a greater impact."

She believes that prices will continue falling for the rest of this year and even into the year ahead, but a glimmer of hope exists.

Ms Chua said: "Prices are likely to fall for the rest of this year and they could continue to fall next year depending on how the US economy pans out.

"But we have a lot of good things coming up in 2010 - Youth Olympics, integrated resorts. So our fundamentals are quite strong. When the US economy picks up, I believe sentiments will follow suit."

And some point out that the bearish reports are due to an over-estimation of supply numbers.

Ku Swee Yong, Director, Marketing & Business Development, Savills (Singapore), said: "The differences arose because of variance in the interpretation of a very basic set of data - the supply numbers - how many apartments will be completed in the next three years.

"We believe that the supply numbers have been overstated because there have been many projects filed and we know that these projects have been delayed."

What is clear though is that shares in property developers have been taking a hit amid concerns over the property outlook. Most of them closed lower on Wednesday. - CNA/vm

Singaporeans are like that...when prices are going up everybody queue up to submit cheques and hope that it will go higher. When prices soften everybody think that prices will drop further and don't dare to buy....

Must think further when buying a property...

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Originally Posted by In the long run

Singaporeans are like that...when prices are going up everybody queue up to submit cheques and hope that it will go higher. When prices soften everybody think that prices will drop further and don't dare to buy....

Must think further when buying a property...

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price didnt drop from launch still higher by about 15% plus minus

Tons of 'wait & see', sideline, wait for price to come down to jump in.
If someone can push up the price with volume & queue, these people will jump in to grab fast, this is guarantee.
These are affordable, just wait to buy cheap.
Why sell now?

Property is not like fish in the market, where the sellers (i.e. developers) have to get rid of them by a certain time otherwise they'll rot and stink.

In fact, property can be compared to wine. Their value increases with age. The longer you hold, the more valuable they become. This is true even for 99-year leasehold properties today, as their leases can now be topped up.

Perhaps for a period to time there could be financial crises and people are not in the mood to drink good wine. Then just keep the wine in the cellar and let them age. One day when the skys are clear again and people ask for good wine, you can take the bottles out and their vintage has increased!

Developers themselves are wising up to the fact that they had been the biggest fools who helped created the en bloc millionaires like me. :p

Nowadays, developers are keeping back a significant portion of their own developments. Tycoons are also hoarding up prime properties like what they do with artwork.

Look at the articles below, you can see the trend.

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Business Times - 06 Nov 2007

CDL-Wachovia JV buying two blocks at Cliveden at Grange

CDL hints it may retain units in some future residential developments

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

A JOINT venture between City Developments Ltd (CDL) and US-based Wachovia Development Corporation is buying two blocks at CDL's Cliveden at Grange condo for $432.4 million or an average price of about $3,750 per sq ft (psf).

And according CDL executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng, the deal attests to the freehold project's 'high investment potential' and reflects CDL's 'business strategy of leveraging on the capital appreciation potential of our developments'.

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The Straits Times

26 Jun 2006

Orchard Scotts launch near top end of prices

50 leasehold units due to be sold at $1,400-$1,800 psf, come July 8

By ARTHUR SIM

The third tower that makes up Orchard Scotts will be retained by Far East and operated as serviced residences. Explaining why, Mr Chia said rent returns from serviced residences here are generally more attractive, between 1.5-2.5 per cent above average residential rental returns.

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The Straits Times
28 May 2008

$10M OR MORE FOR EACH UNIT

Nassim condo turns in surprisingly good sales

A LUXURY condominium in the posh Nassim area has turned in surprisingly good preview sales, even as property analysts are predicting a sharp slowdown in the high-end home segment.

Buyers have taken up 38 units at Nassim Park Residences, forking out a whopping $10 million or more for each apartment, sources said.

UOL declined to comment on the figures yesterday, but sources said the developer might not release some of the units and instead keep them for its own use.

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Business Times - 01 Jun 2007

Tan Chin Tuan Mansion adds a luxury condo

12 of the 16 units in the 20-storey condo will be leased out

By ARTHUR SIM

"We will be very selective in our choice of tenants, given the small number of units for lease and the fact that they will be living in close proximity to my family members.'
- Chew Gek Kim, grandaughter of the late philanthropist

(SINGAPORE) TanChinTuanMansion has been restored and redeveloped to include a luxury 20-storey condominium. But most of the units will only be for lease.

Four of the 16 units will be kept by the family of the late Tan Chin Tuan. Based on the current benchmark price of about $2,500 psf for Suites @ Cairnhill, the remaining 12 have a market value of about $120 million.

The property has been redeveloped by a business entity called Cairnhill Rock and Chew Gek Khim, granddaughter of Tan Chin Tuan. 'It has always been the intention of the private company to keep the entire building for sentimental and historical reasons,' she said.

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The Straits Times

July 29, 2007

Home for family of three is entire 11-storey condo

By Lee Su Shyan

EVEN for the ultra rich, condo living still means having to share facilities like pools and tennis courts with neighbours. Unless you're billionaire Peter Lim, that is.

Mr Lim, his wife Cherie and his 85-year-old mother have an entire 11-storey condo - and pool - at Ardmore Park to themselves. No noisy neighbours, no barking dogs, no learner trumpeters practising in the apartment next door.

http://i305.photobucket.com/albums/n...t/PeterLim.jpg

Billionaire Peter Lim (above) has no plans to sell his condo and move into a landed property because it feels more secure to live in an apartment. -- ST PHOTO: LIM WUI LIANG

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Property is falling and 40% downside in 2 years time assured. People trying to talk up the market but to no avail. It is sliding and sliding. Figures show. Wait a year and get bargain prices. Don't be caught with negative equity.

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Originally Posted by mr funny

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...350552/1/.html

Property analysts say muted property market situation is temporary

By Ng Baoying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 28 May 2008 2209 hrs


SINGAPORE: Investors have been cautious about the property sector amid expectations that the muted residential property market will weaken further. However, some property consultants are taking a slightly more positive stance, saying that this situation is temporary.

Transaction volumes for private homes have been thin, with developers holding back launches or cutting prices. And recently, there have been a slew of bearish reports from the likes of JP Morgan and Nomura, which are further dampening sentiment.

They said that private home prices could drop by as much as 35 per cent in the upper-end segments of the private residential property market by 2010 due to excess supply and poor sentiment.

They argue that marginal speculative sellers are likely to drive prices lower amid low transaction volumes and higher unsold pre-sale inventories.

Lower rental expectations and a large increase in supply are also seen compounding the situation in the longer term. Some also said the middle and low-end segments will not be spared.

But there are some property consultants who said that while things are slow now, dynamics will change going forward.

While the consensus view is that prices will continue to remain under pressure for the rest of the year and into 2009, some consultants said that the main reasons for falling prices are external.

Chua Chor Hoon, Senior Director, Research, DTZ Debenham Tie Leung, said: "It's mainly the external factor, because of what's happening in US, so sentiments are really weak now.

"(It's also) partly because prices have gone up quite a lot last year - especially after the deferred payment scheme has been removed that made buyers more cautious. It's a combination of factors, but I believe it's the US economy that has a greater impact."

She believes that prices will continue falling for the rest of this year and even into the year ahead, but a glimmer of hope exists.

Ms Chua said: "Prices are likely to fall for the rest of this year and they could continue to fall next year depending on how the US economy pans out.

"But we have a lot of good things coming up in 2010 - Youth Olympics, integrated resorts. So our fundamentals are quite strong. When the US economy picks up, I believe sentiments will follow suit."

And some point out that the bearish reports are due to an over-estimation of supply numbers.

Ku Swee Yong, Director, Marketing & Business Development, Savills (Singapore), said: "The differences arose because of variance in the interpretation of a very basic set of data - the supply numbers - how many apartments will be completed in the next three years.

"We believe that the supply numbers have been overstated because there have been many projects filed and we know that these projects have been delayed."

What is clear though is that shares in property developers have been taking a hit amid concerns over the property outlook. Most of them closed lower on Wednesday. - CNA/vm

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What a pity. People talk of Youth Olympics to talk up the market. Even major Olympic cities suffering. No way but down down. Thats the market route. IN bad times people won't be out gambling too.

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Originally Posted by Hype Hype

Property is falling and 40% downside in 2 years time assured. People trying to talk up the market but to no avail. It is sliding and sliding. Figures show. Wait a year and get bargain prices. Don't be caught with negative equity.

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you should sell away your house now, buy back in 2 yrs time at 40% discount of today's price.
You will be regreted & downgraded as property is going to surge in few months time.

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Originally Posted by basic

you should sell away your house now, buy back in 2 yrs time at 40% discount of today's price.
You will be regreted & downgraded as property is going to surge in few months time.

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Done in November and sitting on stockpiles of cash.

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Originally Posted by Hype Hype

Done in November and sitting on stockpiles of cash.

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Sold 2 last Sept.
The rest on 8% rental yield now.
Look around, ready to buy.

I think right now property prices are condo-specific. The rising tide floated all boats, but now that the tide is sinking, some boats are found to be better equipped than others.

Condos that are in the same area, neighbouring condos even, can differ in price by up to $500 psf! Look at Robertson Quay condos, Newton condos, River Valley condos. The main reason for this phenomenon should rest solely on the attributes and quality of the condo, not just location and the usual property gimmicks. Now that the market is going down, condos that are crap have been exposed for what they are.

I do not want to name any specific condo but if you looked at the caveats in those locations you should be able to find out which ones are good and which ones are crap.

As always (but ignored during the frenzied buying of 2007), look deeper into the fundamentals of a property, not only surface attributes such as location. There are lots of other tangible/intangible variables that affect a buyer's decision on a property. That explains why some condo prices remain firm while others are being dumped at low prices.

67,736 has been overblown, actual will be 45,000 or below.
No oversupply in next 4-5 years.



实际供应过剩情况 不如想像中严重

（2008-06-04）
早报导读

● 吴慧敏

　　（吴慧敏报道）虽然官方数字显示，未来四五年内可能有六七万个私宅单位完工，但受访的房地产界人士认为，实际的供应过剩情况并不如想像中严重。

　　这是因为一些单位将在这段期间被拆除，一些工程也会因为建筑业紧绷而延迟完成。此外，两座综合度假胜地和新加坡的移民政策也将吸引更多外国人迁移到新加坡居住，刺激住房需求上升。

　　第一太平戴维斯的邱瑞荣说：“最近一些报告，过度放大楼市的供应数字。实际上，现有的潜在供应是足以被市场消化的，不过由于市场气氛已经转弱，政府必须更谨慎地推出新的地皮，以免真的导致过剩的情况出现。”

　　最近，好几家银行发表的房地产报告都估计，新加坡楼市（特别是豪宅价格）将在未来三年内下跌高达30％至40％。其中一个原因是本地楼市的潜在供应量相当惊人，高达六七万个单位。

　　相比较之下，本地楼市的“消化能力”却急剧下降，今年第一季只卖出了762个新私宅单位，这是过去12年以来最低的季度之一。

　　高力国际的郑惠匀说：“截至2008年第一季，私宅潜在供应量为6万7736个，这似乎很多。但如果扣除大约8500个可能因为集体出售交易而拆除的单位，以及一些因为建筑紧缩情况而延迟完工的单位、因为市场气氛较弱而延迟推出的单位，实际的潜在供应量其实会显著减少，可能只有4万5000个单位左右。”

　　她认为，这样的供应量应能轻易在未来四五年内被“消化”。虽然过去几年，本地的私宅“消化能力”每年只有大约7000个单位，但她相信未来几年的需求将因为两座IR、滨海湾商业城等项目而提高。

　　“从这些数据来看，本地私宅市的供应应该不会过剩，而会在中期能取得平衡。不过，为了确保能够达到国家长期的住房需求，政府应该继续确保有稳定的供地，特别是在目前较为呆滞的私人发展售地市场。

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Originally Posted by NO OVERSUPPLY LAH

67,736 has been overblown, actual will be 45,000 or below.
No oversupply in next 4-5 years.



实际供应过剩情况 不如想像中严重

（2008-06-04）
早报导读

● 吴慧敏

　　（吴慧敏报道）虽然官方数字显示，未来四五年内可能有六七万个私宅单位完工，但受访的房地产界人士认为，实际的供应过剩情况并不如想像中严重。

　　这是因为一些单位将在这段期间被拆除，一些工程也会因为建筑业紧绷而延迟完成。此外，两座综合度假胜地和新加坡的移民政策也将吸引更多外国人迁移到新加坡居住，刺激住房需求上升。

　　第一太平戴维斯的邱瑞荣说：“最近一些报告，过度放大楼市的供应数字。实际上，现有的潜在供应是足以被市场消化的，不过由于市场气氛已经转弱，政府必须更谨慎地推出新的地皮，以免真的导致过剩的情况出现。”

　　最近，好几家银行发表的房地产报告都估计，新加坡楼市（特别是豪宅价格）将在未来三年内下跌高达30％至40％。其中一个原因是本地楼市的潜在供应量相当惊人，高达六七万个单位。

　　相比较之下，本地楼市的“消化能力”却急剧下降，今年第一季只卖出了762个新私宅单位，这是过去12年以来最低的季度之一。

　　高力国际的郑惠匀说：“截至2008年第一季，私宅潜在供应量为6万7736个，这似乎很多。但如果扣除大约8500个可能因为集体出售交易而拆除的单位，以及一些因为建筑紧缩情况而延迟完工的单位、因为市场气氛较弱而延迟推出的单位，实际的潜在供应量其实会显著减少，可能只有4万5000个单位左右。”

　　她认为，这样的供应量应能轻易在未来四五年内被“消化”。虽然过去几年，本地的私宅“消化能力”每年只有大约7000个单位，但她相信未来几年的需求将因为两座IR、滨海湾商业城等项目而提高。

　　“从这些数据来看，本地私宅市的供应应该不会过剩，而会在中期能取得平衡。不过，为了确保能够达到国家长期的住房需求，政府应该继续确保有稳定的供地，特别是在目前较为呆滞的私人发展售地市场。

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No oversupply is good what.

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Originally Posted by Unreg¡stered

No oversupply is good what.

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... but dunno why some kept saying there will be oversupply ...

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Originally Posted by Curious

... but dunno why some kept saying there will be oversupply ...

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becos they want to buy cheap, they is why they create fear to scare seller to let go their property.
these people will sell away the country for their own benefit if bad time is here.

Dearly beloved, hear what comforting words Tharman said, "there is NO sign of recession." NO sign. Property prices will rise. Rise, rise, rise...

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Originally Posted by Says who?

Dearly beloved, hear what comforting words Tharman said, "there is NO sign of recession." NO sign. Property prices will rise. Rise, rise, rise...

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Frankly, with or without recession, prices will still come down. There is just not enough concrete fundamentals to point to an increase in property prices right now, giving the current uncertain economic situations...

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Originally Posted by Says me

Frankly, with or without recession, prices will still come down. There is just not enough concrete fundamentals to point to an increase in property prices right now, giving the current uncertain economic situations...

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You say oil price will down mean oil price will come down? Who the fúck are you? You think you are god? You are just a dog. Stop barking rubbish here.

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Originally Posted by basic

becos they want to buy cheap, they is why they create fear to scare seller to let go their property.
these people will sell away the country for their own benefit if bad time is here.

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He oredi explain his motive....hehe:D :cheers5:

wah lau e, the thread already 3 years old since last post and you gotta revived it :D:D:D

It was an interesting read at hindsight because the supposed oversupply of 2007 was very quickly absorbed. So it was really more a case of lack of confidence. So for 2010, the topic of oversupply crops up again. If there is to be a correction, I would say it's more of a lack of confidence again.

2007 building stock was absorbed by the new migrant/PRs directly or indirectly. Unless there is another wave in migrants/PRs in the next 2 years :confused: .

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Originally Posted by kane

It was an interesting read at hindsight because the supposed oversupply of 2007 was very quickly absorbed. So it was really more a case of lack of confidence. So for 2010, the topic of oversupply crops up again. If there is to be a correction, I would say it's more of a lack of confidence again.

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Originally Posted by DC33_2008

2007 building stock was absorbed by the new migrant/PRs directly or indirectly. Unless there is another wave in migrants/PRs in the next 2 years :confused: .

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The wave is over?

There is still some ripples which is supporting the public housing resale index in the last quarter.

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Originally Posted by kane

The wave is over?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by DC33_2008

There is still some ripples which is supporting the public housing resale index in the last quarter.

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one of ur tenant is a french banker rite? mabe u can ask him about the job situation in Asia now

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Originally Posted by DC33_2008

2007 building stock was absorbed by the new migrant/PRs directly or indirectly. Unless there is another wave in migrants/PRs in the next 2 years :confused: .

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Wave not over at all..... Population in 2010 5.08m... now 5.18m..... :o

My tenant seems ok with the right european bank.

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Originally Posted by devilplate

one of ur tenant is a french banker rite? mabe u can ask him about the job situation in Asia now

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Originally Posted by CCR

Wave not over at all..... Population in 2010 5.08m... now 5.18m..... :o

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Target is 6.5M or 7.5M in 2020.. so wave should still be there just slow down thats all.

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Originally Posted by basic

becos they want to buy cheap, they is why they create fear to scare seller to let go their property.
these people will sell away the country for their own benefit if bad time is here.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by devilplate

He oredi explain his motive....hehe:D :cheers5:

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Below is what I already mentioned much earlier into his thread lor.. think rental agreement will be expiring soon.. still have no chance to buy cheap cheap, so try this tactic lor.. Basic say one!! hahaha:D :D

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Originally Posted by Rysk

Of course you are not an agent.. But to me, you are just a person who sold off your properties & begin try your luck to talk down on the property market... You are not the only one who use this tactic.. Haha

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