http://star.walagata.com/w/ghisallo/42339025.pdf
Tour-de-force analysis from Credit Suisse. A long but worthy read.
Printable View
http://star.walagata.com/w/ghisallo/42339025.pdf
Tour-de-force analysis from Credit Suisse. A long but worthy read.
I would say that their analysis is "Tour-de-force" if they had written "our previous assumptions had always been very accurate" rather than "our previous assumption seems to be too optimistic".Quote:
Originally Posted by 2ndTimeLucky
http://i305.photobucket.com/albums/n...editSuisse.jpg
Report that tells us to buy is "con".Quote:
Originally Posted by 2ndTimeLucky
Report that tells us to sell is also "con".
You seem easily "conned" by this report that tell us to sell.
Soleil #28-01 was bought for $1,350,000 and subsold at $1,500,000 for a profit. Both caveats were lodged at different time. Yet CS blindly took it that price has dropped from $1,500,000 to $1,350,000. The analyst did not have access to the paid URA system or what?
Soleil #35-07 was sold at $1,680,000 and #11-07 was sold at $1,096,000 1.5 months later. CS blindly took it that price has dropped from $1,680,000 to $1,096,000. The analyst did not have any formal education or what?
There are transaction that shows prices went up too. Why did CS only choose the ones that show down? Does the analyst has a biased objective in mind?
This CS report is totally bullshit!
I am neither a bull or a bear but research house should publish a report that is totally misleading, wrong and biased. I would rather analyse the URA data myself than to trust in this CS report or any other reports.
So CreditSusse cooked this report up? Disgusting! I celebrated in vain!Quote:
Originally Posted by UnregĄstered
Anyway I will analyse the URA data myself and prove that market is going down.
No worth spending time on any of these reports. They are all biased. If they want the market to go up, they tell you up. If they want it to go down, they will tell you down.
wah lau you celebrated !!Quote:
Originally Posted by Fedup!
if CS report is accurate URA PPI would have shown already
Is market going up or down? Nobody knows. No point speculating. Just wait for URA to release the results. That one is unbiased. Up means up. Down means down. Take a break and wait for the results.Quote:
Originally Posted by Haha
My dear friend, the market's all about manipulation isn't it? That's how the big boys make money off the small guys. If you're selling watermelons at $1 per piece, wouldn't you like to sell it at $5 each? It's human nature to always want more and more and more.Quote:
Originally Posted by UnregĄstered
Credit Suisse does not have enough credibility in my view to present abt the Singapore Property Market,they are not in the real estate business to start with, also half their target prices were quite some way off, I would not pay too much attention to this report.....
On contrary, not being "in the real estate business" increases credibility as they are less likely than developers to be biased.
I did read through the very long report. Its rationally argued, and supported with evidence, both direct and indirect.
All too often, we hear bullish and bearish statements backed up by the flimsiest of data. Why should I believe them?
But this report seems to have really put in alot of effort to backup each statement with data. Makes a compelling argument in my opinion.
Just because the report is full of numbers and statistics does not mean its accurate, a lot of information is based on forecast and not actual data, I also noticed that it did not represent the entire property market, only selected condos were mentioned.....
You must be kidding!Quote:
Originally Posted by 2ndTimeLucky
You mean by doing the following is also correct?
..........
Soleil #35-07 was sold at $1,680,000 and #11-07 was sold at $1,096,000 1.5 months later. CS blindly took it that price has dropped from $1,680,000 to $1,096,000. The analyst did not have any formal education or what?
There are transaction that shows prices went up too. Why did CS only choose the ones that show down? Does the analyst has a biased objective in mind?
..........
Before reading too much into these reports, we have to ask ourselves one question. Why are these analysts so "kind-hearted" to give us all sorts of reports "free-of-charge"?
Who pays their salaries?
Definitely not me. I did not pay for their reports.
Well, to get a complete picture, read the following Business Times article:
I did not "panic" and sell off my City Developments shares. Today, they have gone up again.Quote:
May 6, 2008, 12.02 pm (Singapore time), The Business Times
CityDev falls on Credit Suisse downgrade, Sunvic up
SINGAPORE - Shares of City Developments (CityDev) extended losses for a second day after Credit Suisse downgraded its investment rating to 'underperform'. Southeast Asia's second-largest property developer fell as much as 3.4 per cent to an intraday low of $11.92 (US$8.76) with over 1.2 million shares traded. CityDev had lost 1.3 per cent on Monday.
'Being a proxy to the Singapore property market we believe it (CityDev) is vulnerable to further negative news flow within the sector,' said Credit Suisse analyst Tricia Song, who set a target price of $10.20 for the firm.
Otherwise, I would have paid a few hundred dollars for their "Tour de force" report. :scared-4:
You now know why institutional traders always win in the stock market versus small-time retail investors?
They are always releasing all sorts of "reports" to affect market sentiment. Of course, they would have bought before you buy; and sold before you sell. Or they could buy after you sell; and sell after you buy.
Fortunately, as a small-time retail investor, there is a strategy which can be used to frustrate these institutional traders. It's called the "Moron Strategy".
I practice the "Moron Strategy". I just buy and hold.
They give me "free-of-charge" "kind-hearted" reports telling me that the stock market is going to rise? Well, I do nothing.
They give me "free-of-charge" "kind-hearted" reports telling me that the stock market is going to crash? Well, I do nothing.
I buy shares only when I feel like buying, and then I hold them.
I have been holding City Development shares for more than 10 years. Next time when I pass on, I'll just pass them to the next generation, together with my portfolio of properties.
If everyone behaves like me, very soon all these institutional traders will lose their jobs, not to mention also their million-dollar bonuses.
Try to make money from me? Not so easy! :tongue3: