Private residential market to start slow in 2022, fewer upcoming launches: analysts
Private residential market to start slow in 2022, fewer upcoming launches: analysts
Jan 15, 2022
THE private residential market is likely to start the year on a quiet note as developers wait until after Chinese New Year (Feb 1 and 2) to market their properties, analysts say.
This seasonal lull also gives developers a chance to "wait and see" before making any major decisions in response to the recent round of property cooling measures.
Since the curbs were introduced in mid-December last year, PropNex has observed a 20 to 30 per cent slowing in new home sales on average, compared to the weeks prior, said chief executive Ismail Gafoor.
According to caveats lodged, developers sold 643 new homes in December 2021, excluding executive condominiums (ECs), down 58.4 per cent from November's 1,547 units.
"However, the slower sales are most likely due to seasonality and the holidays as buyers, sellers, or agents go on their year-end break. In our view, the dip in sales is not entirely a result of the cooling measures," Gafoor said.
Analysts added that they have not seen major announcements from project developers, such as launch delays or major price cuts.
"Cutting a project's selling price may not draw in the buyers. It could cause buyers to expect even more price cuts in the near future," said Nicholas Mak, ERA Realty's head of research and consultancy.
Gafoor added: "As far as we know, most developers are sticking with their launch schedule."
Bukit Timah condo project Perfect Ten launched on schedule on Dec 18 last year, despite the new measures. However, its Hong Kong-based developer CK Asset Holdings offered a one-time 5 per cent discount at its launch weekend in response to the curbs.
Lee Sze Teck, senior research director at Huttons Asia added: "Subject to regulatory approvals, the launches are proceeding as planned. As developers do not have many larger projects in the pipeline, we expect them to pace out their launches throughout the year."
He noted that Belgravia Ace is likely to be the largest freehold strata-landed project in 2022. The 107-unit project along Belgravia Drive is scheduled to start sales booking on Jan 22.
He added: "The Choa Chu Kang area, which has not seen many launches, will welcome The Arden in February or March. Projects in Ang Mo Kio tend to be well-received; the new launch along Ang Mo Kio Ave 1 will be one to watch. There will also be a mixed development at Tanah Merah Kechil Link next to the MRT station. These projects are well-distributed around the island."
In total, Huttons expects to see 2 ECs and up to 43 private residential launches comprising over 5,500 units this year.
"North Gaia at Yishun is slated to launch in March or April, and another along Tengah Garden Walk will probably launch in Q4 2022. Another EC project along Tampines Street 62 will reach its 15th month in November 2022, and may launch in Q1 2023."
Last year, there were 2 EC launches and 24 private residential launches in 2021, Huttons estimates. Among the private residential developments, 12 are in the core central region (CCR), 7 in the rest of central region (RCR) and 5, outside central region (OCR). Altogether, an estimated 10,000 units were launched for sale last year, Lee noted.
Meanwhile, over 13,000 units were moved last year.
This is the highest annual new private home sales since 14,948 units were sold in 2013, noted Gafoor.
OrangeTee & Tie senior vice-president of research and analytics, Christine Sun, added that based on the URA monthly developers sales data for November 2021, many projects launched in 2021 have sold more than half their units, including major projects like The Reef at King's Dock (88.6 per cent), Pasir Ris 8 (87.9 per cent), CanningHill Piers (82.8 per cent), Jervois Mansion (77.7 per cent), Normanton Park (76.5 per cent), and Irwell Hill Residences (75 per cent).
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Re: Private residential market to start slow in 2022, fewer upcoming launches: analys
Private residential market to start slow in 2022, fewer upcoming launches: analysts
UPDATED Fri, Jan 21, 2022
THE private residential market is likely to start the year on a quiet note as developers wait until after Chinese New Year (Feb 1 and 2) to market their properties, analysts say.
This seasonal lull also gives developers a chance to "wait and see" before making any major decisions in response to the recent round of property cooling measures.
Since the curbs were introduced in mid-December last year, PropNex has observed a 20 to 30 per cent slowing in new home sales on average, compared to the weeks prior, said chief executive Ismail Gafoor.
According to caveats lodged, developers sold 643 new homes in December 2021, excluding executive condominiums (ECs), down 58.4 per cent from November's 1,547 units.
"However, the slower sales are most likely due to seasonality and the holidays as buyers, sellers, or agents go on their year-end break. In our view, the dip in sales is not entirely a result of the cooling measures," Gafoor said.
Analysts added that they have not seen major announcements from project developers, such as launch delays or major price cuts.
"Cutting a project's selling price may not draw in the buyers. It could cause buyers to expect even more price cuts in the near future," said Nicholas Mak, ERA Realty's head of research and consultancy.
Gafoor added: "As far as we know, most developers are sticking with their launch schedule."
Bukit Timah condo project Perfect Ten launched on schedule on Dec 18 last year, despite the new measures. However, its Hong Kong-based developer CK Asset Holdings offered a one-time 5 per cent discount at its launch weekend in response to the curbs.
Lee Sze Teck, senior research director at Huttons Asia added: "Subject to regulatory approvals, the launches are proceeding as planned. As developers do not have many larger projects in the pipeline, we expect them to pace out their launches throughout the year."
He noted that Belgravia Ace is likely to be the largest freehold strata-landed project in 2022. The 107-unit project along Belgravia Drive is scheduled to start sales booking on Jan 22.
He added: "The Choa Chu Kang area, which has not seen many launches, will welcome The Arden in February or March. Projects in Ang Mo Kio tend to be well-received; the new launch along Ang Mo Kio Ave 1 will be one to watch. There will also be a mixed development at Tanah Merah Kechil Link next to the MRT station. These projects are well-distributed around the island."
In total, Huttons expects to see 2 ECs and up to 43 private residential launches comprising over 5,500 units this year.
"North Gaia at Yishun is slated to launch in March or April, and another along Tengah Garden Walk will probably launch in Q4 2022. Another EC project along Tampines Street 62 will reach its 15th month in November 2022, and may launch in Q1 2023."
Last year, there were 2 EC launches and 24 private residential launches in 2021, Huttons estimates. Among the private residential developments, 12 are in the core central region (CCR), 7 in the rest of central region (RCR) and 5, outside central region (OCR). Altogether, an estimated 10,000 units were launched for sale last year, Lee noted.
Meanwhile, over 13,000 units were moved last year.
This is the highest annual new private home sales since 14,948 units were sold in 2013, noted Gafoor.
OrangeTee & Tie senior vice-president of research and analytics, Christine Sun, added that based on the URA monthly developers sales data for November 2021, many projects launched in 2021 have sold more than half their units, including major projects like The Reef at King's Dock (88.6 per cent), Pasir Ris 8 (87.9 per cent), CanningHill Piers (82.8 per cent), Jervois Mansion (77.7 per cent), Normanton Park (76.5 per cent), and Irwell Hill Residences (75 per cent).
