URA flash estimate shows 5.9% drop in Q2 pte home price index

1 July 2009

URA releases flash 2nd quarter 2009 private residential property price index

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released today the flash estimate of the price index of private residential property for 2nd Quarter 2009.

Based on the estimated price index of private residential property, prices fell from 139.9 points in the 1st Quarter 2009 to 131.7 points in the 2nd Quarter 2009. This represents a decline of 5.9%, compared with the 14.1% decline in the previous quarter (see Annex A).

URA also released today the flash estimates of the price changes in the 3 geographical regions for 2nd Quarter 2009. Prices of non-landed private residential properties decreased by 6.6% in Core Central Region, 6.3% in Rest of Central Region and 2.6% in Outside Central Region in the quarter (see Annex B). In comparison, for 1st Quarter 2009, prices of non-landed private residential properties decreased by 16.2% in Core Central Region, 17.0% in Rest of Central Region and 7.3% in Outside Central Region.

The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter supplemented by information on the number of new units sold. The statistics will be updated 4 weeks later when URA releases the full 2nd Quarter 2009 real estate statistics, when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects are captured. Past data have shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and the actual price changes could be significant when the change is small. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.

URA will continue to release relevant price sensitive information in a timely manner to allow the public to make informed decisions. On the supply side, the statistics on private residential units in the pipeline, which were last released in Apr 09, will be updated in the 2nd Quarter 2009 Real Estate Statistics to be released on 24 July 2009.

i wonder how they calculate this, i thought caveats showed prices were somewhat higher than Q1? anyone has any ideas?

kinda makes sense. i bought early feb, but caveat out in April. so Q2's figures will get the transient transactions when prices hit bottom Feb/Mar.

Volume started to recover in Mar. and it was only April onwards that prices started to go up and full blast in June, so Q3 numbers will be skewed upwards. this means the best opportunity to sell is in that one month that Q3 flash estimates come out, as you can use these figures as justification

Do they deduct all the goodies such as Interest absorption scheme, cash grants/benefits/renovation packages thrown in to buy the properties? (since actual purchase price is lesser as buyers take these into consideration when deciding to buy). The property price rise seems like a smoke screen for these new properties if we take all these goodies out.

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Originally Posted by bargain hunter

i wonder how they calculate this, i thought caveats showed prices were somewhat higher than Q1? anyone has any ideas?

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for your best opportunity to sell, its provided buyers do not suffer exhaustion before that. :) between now and october is 3 months, if we see another 3 months of 1000+ units a month, by then exhausted already hee.

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Originally Posted by gfoo

kinda makes sense. i bought early feb, but caveat out in April. so Q2's figures will get the transient transactions when prices hit bottom Feb/Mar.

Volume started to recover in Mar. and it was only April onwards that prices started to go up and full blast in June, so Q3 numbers will be skewed upwards. this means the best opportunity to sell is in that one month that Q3 flash estimates come out, as you can use these figures as justification

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by bargain hunter

for your best opportunity to sell, its provided buyers do not suffer exhaustion before that. :) between now and october is 3 months, if we see another 3 months of 1000+ units a month, by then exhausted already hee.

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Yeah just spoke to my agent - she handles all our corporate and residential stuff - this run up is even faster than 2007 and driven mainly by local monies. foreigners no where to be seen

you selling your sail? may need to find a local buyer in that case? maybe can try selling before chinese 7th month? scarly, few launches during ghost month and momentum disappears after that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gfoo

Yeah just spoke to my agent - she handles all our corporate and residential stuff - this run up is even faster than 2007 and driven mainly by local monies. foreigners no where to be seen

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http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...439666/1/.html

Singapore home prices see 4th quarterly drop, but at slower pace

By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 01 July 2009 1355 hrs


SINGAPORE: Private home prices in Singapore have fallen for the fourth straight quarter, though at a slower pace.

Initial estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed Wednesday that the cost of private residential properties fell by 5.9 per cent in the second quarter, compared to the record drop of 14.1 per cent in the previous quarter - the steepest fall since 1975.

According to the latest numbers, prices for homes slid across the board, dipping by 6.6 per cent in the central region, 6.3 per cent in the city fringe and 2.6 per cent in suburban areas.

Minor recovery was also seen in the resale prices of public flats.

The Housing and Development Board said preliminary data shows that resale price index rose 1.2 per cent between April and June, to an all-time high of 140 points since records began in 1990.

This comes after a marginal drop of 0.8 per cent in the first quarter.

- CNA/yb

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bargain hunter

for your best opportunity to sell, its provided buyers do not suffer exhaustion before that. :) between now and october is 3 months, if we see another 3 months of 1000+ units a month, by then exhausted already hee.

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I am beginning to think that quite a lot of locals really got priced out big time during the run.

This is the window for them to lock in, just in case, the mkt run up again.