Buying Attitude Index - Q2 2017

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15-04-17, 16:33
richwang

Buying Attitude Index - Q2 2017

Why this index?
In Singapore, there is no official buyer-driven (not developer-driven) index to show Buyers' Attitude for residential properties. This forum is the best place to fill in that gap.

How does it work?
Everyone is entitled for one vote, the index is calculated by:
the percentage of bulls - percentage of bears
(Please vote even if you are neutral because it will change the overall percentage scores).

Historical Numbers:

Quarter, Votes, Index
Q4 2012, 65, +12
Q1 2013, 35, +6
Q2 2013, 56, 0
Q3, 2013, 59, -34
Q4, 2013, 53, -45
Q1, 2014, 45, -33
Q2, 2014, 43, -44
Q3, 2014, 48, -19
Q4, 2014, 29, +14
Q1, 2015, 29, +7
Q2, 2015, 20, +15
Q3, 2015, 16, +56
Q4, 2015, 7, +28
Q1, 2016, 12, +34
Q2, 2016, 16, +32
Q3, 2016, 16, +81
Q4, 2016, 11, +64
Q1, 2017, 14, +21

(The max of the index is 100, the minimum of the index is -100)

The government policy direction is very clear: not cooling any more. The Analysts' views are very clear: Morgan Stanley says property price to double by 2030. Marc Faber (aka Dr. Doom) also says Singapore property is reaching its bottom (in particular for high end, and he made a call to buy Wing Tai stock).

Now as buyers, are we afraid of the inevitable coming financial crisis and even wars?

Your vote will give us a hint.

Thanks,
Richard
16-04-17, 09:22
anythingwhatever

It really depends on your portfolio:

1. Good time for buyers without a property and rich people who can buy for others without loans (thereby no ABSD).
2. Still not so good for the rest. :-)
16-04-17, 13:11
Arcachon

Quote:

Originally Posted by anythingwhatever

It really depends on your portfolio:

1. Good time for buyers without a property and rich people who can buy for others without loans (thereby no ABSD).
2. Still not so good for the rest. :-)

The rest got a lot of Ten years.
10-05-17, 11:01
richwang

Number of votes: 7
Index: 86 - 0 = 86

The method is seriously biased to bulls (bears are not visiting the forum, and thus not voting).
12-05-17, 18:12
wind30

Quote:

Originally Posted by richwang

Number of votes: 7
Index: 86 - 0 = 86

The method is seriously biased to bulls (bears are not visiting the forum, and thus not voting).

Best gauge is activity in forum. When property market hot, a lot of posts. When not hot, nobody...
15-05-17, 21:33
richwang

Number of votes: 10
Index: 90 - 0 = 90

Amazing, no bears at all, and I am the only one not bullish.
16-05-17, 11:00
PropVestor

Quote:

Originally Posted by richwang

Number of votes: 10
Index: 90 - 0 = 90

Amazing, no bears at all, and I am the only one not bullish.

Sentiments are positive but fundamentals are still weak.

Recent good sites have been launched this year. This orchestrated move by developers have injected some positivity to the market with a kickstart by government loosening some CMs on MOP period and SSD from govt. However, this must not be misread as a positive upswing. Fundamentally, unless demand such as growth in population or migration kicks in, there is little to rejoice. The whole thing can be reversed quickly with CMs removed but that is unlikely as tweaks are more likely to happen than complete removal. I must say there is lots of pent up demand from the last wave of upswing which contributed to the hold up cash stockpile in some investors. A good sign of holding power.

I find Singaporeans are more discerning today. They put their money where it counts and not rush in like before. That I hope I am right. I applaud to the government on implementing the CMs to stop over-leverage.

2 cents,
PropVestor